The Hamas leadership in Gaza has sent a message to the leadership in Syria warning of a “deteriorating” situation. As The Jerusalem Post reports:

The letter was reportedly written in light of a series of assassinations and explosions near the offices of senior Izaddin a-Kassam commanders and of Hamas prime minister Ismail Haniyeh. No one has claimed responsibility for the attacks.

According to the report, Ja’abri wrote Mahsa’al that “several worrisome explosions recently occurred in Gaza, security anarchy is extensive, and al-Kassam men are being killed.”

Ja’abri also reportedly admits that Hamas has made a number of serious mistakes in ruling the strip.

The paper quoted Palestinian sources as saying that Hamas operatives who oppose Haniyeh were behind the attacks. Others suggested that the explosions were carried out by fundamentalist Islamic jihad groups.

Al-Qaeda-type militants are growing in Gaza and may be responsible, but logically, if the attacks aren’t targeting civilians, we should suspect an Israeli hand. After all, Mossad was just gutsy enough to kill a Hamas commander in Dubai, so killing commanders in Gaza isn’t a stretch.

Israel National News is reporting that

The three largest oil trading firms in the world – Glencore, Trafigura and Vitol – announced Monday that they would no longer do business with Iran. A report in the London Financial Times said that the companies had concluded that there was too much risk and not enough profit in supplying Iran. The three companies had been responsible for supplying Iran with about half its daily oil use.

Analysis. We may not be able to get official sanctions in place. Now unofficial sanctions? Iran is vulnerable in a lot of places but POL for the daily economy is right at the top of the list. I suspect that somebody from Treasury walked into see a CEO or two and suggested that dealing with Iran was not in their company’s best interests. The treasury guy was probably from the office that tracks terrorist funds. Given the choice of selling product to the United States and not being continually hassled by Treasury as opposed to be continually hassled by Treasury and not being allowed to do business in the US? Easy decision.

These items from our friends in Iran.

In fear of the uprising of people in March 8th the clerical dictatorship is supplying its Bassij forces with suppressive tools such as baton, teargas and face mask in Jondollah Base. It has also promised them cash, for participating in the suppression and detention of the protesters. (Gives new meaning to the term “rent a cop”.)

At the wake of March 16 Uprising Google is shut down in all townships of Tabriz and slowed down in Tehran.
Working with Internet in different townships is either impossible or hardly done.

Writing slogans on the walls of Sari (a city north of Iran) is seen every where even on the walls of military bases. The slogans read as “we exist” then regime’s elements follow the slogan in black “with Supreme Leadership” but this by itself has encouraged people and they all say that they will take into the streets on March 16.

Despite of all threats and banning announced by the regime people have started using firecrackers and etc. On Friday night March 5th the sound of the exploding materials was heard in Tehran’s Farahzad St. The same was in Aryashahr and Ferdosi Blvd. Regime’s SSF night patrols tried to silence these acts.

In regard with events on March 16 the cadres of hospitals and the nurses are on the state of alert.
According to the reports received from one of the central hospitals in Tehran all leaves of treatment cadres and nurses are canceled and hospital’s personnel are on full alert. A head nurse who wanted to remain unknown said that the number of hospital’s personnel has increased 20% in regard to the events on March 16.

Following the inner crisis of the clerical dictatorship, it is sorting out some of its diplomats and has ousted 20 of its ambassadors in different countries. Some of these countries are Ukraine, Hungry, Georgia, Coast of Ivory, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia, Indonesia, Poland, Pakistan and Libya. After the nationwide uprising some of regime’s diplomats in Norway, Germany, France and England have resigned and applied for political asylum.

Mohammadreza Haydari regime’s head consulate in Norway is amongst those. He revealed that 27 Iranian diplomats have taken asylum in western countries during last months but have not introduced themselves in public yet in fear of their families that were still in Iran. To stop this shedding regime has recently summoned its diplomats to Tehran.

It is absolutely no surprise to me that the named states would approve of an Israeli strike on Iran. The Gulf Cooperation Council states, Egypt and Jordan are in as much danger from Shiite Iran, and it is extremely important to remember Shiite Iran, as Israel is and for the same reason: religion. Israel is in danger ultimately from Islam in general as the Qur’an specifically tells Muslims that the trees and rocks will cry out to them that there is a Jew hiding behind them and the Muslim is to come and kill the Jew. The Sunni Muslim states are at risk because the Shiites are tired of being second class citizens in their own religion. They, the followers of Ali (Shiiat Ali - the followers of Ali), believe that Mohammad’s grandson Ali should have been the first Caliph and not the fourth.

This is also no surprise as Debka many months ago reported upon a meeting of the intelligence chiefs of these same nations. When intelligence chiefs start meeting, meetings of planners are not far behind. Once the planning starts events start moving themselves towards execution of the plan at some point. It is also important to note that it is the synergy of the armed forces of these countries acting together that provides the best chance for success. Israel may have the deep strike capability and the bunker busters or nuclear weapons if necessary. But the Saudis have Tornados and Strike Eagles that can effectively interdict Iran’s airfields, surface-to-surface missile systems and surface-to-air missile systems that lie on both sides of the Iranian Zagros Mountains. The Saudi AWACS will be available for battle management duties. The air forces of the Gulf States can provide escort, Combat Air Patrol (CAP) and intercept incoming Iranian strike aircraft. The Kuwait Air Force can augment the Iraqi Air Force to intercept incoming Iranian strike aircraft and provide close air support to the Iraqi Army defending the Shatt al-Arab.

Not only do these kinds of arrangements make sense, they are vital. All of these countries realize that they are all at risk no matter what they do other than becoming “protectorates” of Iran. They also realize that this will be a war on two fronts: Eastern and Western. Iran is the anchor of the Eastern Front. Syria and Lebanon anchor the Western Front. The recent supply of advanced surface to air missile systems to Hezbollah indicates a strengthening of that front. The recent visit of Ahmadinejad to Damascus indicates that planning on the Iranian side may also be advancing. It is also proof beyond a doubt that the vast majority of terrorism in the Middle East can be directly attributed to Iran and can be used as an indicator of preparations to attack Israel.

I still believe that Iran will do its best to back Israel into a corner from which they believe that their only escape is to attack Iran. It has not helped that the latest attempt to impose serious sanctions on Iran has obviously failed or that Iran has just announced the newest missile in its arsenal. This one is designed to sink ships in the Persian Gulf. There is a revolutionary movement in Iran and we report on it almost daily with information directly from Iran. So far that movement is an irritant to the regime but not a real danger. The regime is too well entrenched to be removed unless the regular Iranian military decides to take part. So far that has not happened.

Even though all of these actions are taking place, it is not possible to estimate when such an attack on Iran or by Iran will take place. As much depends on the weather as on the political machinations of the parties. Bad weather favors the Israelis and to some extent the Saudis due to the technological advancement of its armed fores relative to the Iranians. Bad weather also favors small unit and terrorist like attacks on oil facilities and other strategic targets. But an attack will occur when one party or the other decides it can’t wait any longer and survive. I believe that the Israelis will be first to decide it cannot wait.

At least 20% of those released from Gitmo have gone back to a life of terrorism–and those are just the ones we know about and more are likely on their way. The Associated Press reports that Abdul Qayyam, who is leading Taliban operations in southern Afghanistan and is likely the replacement for Mullah Baradar, was released to the Afghans in December 2007. He was released a year later.

Qayyam’s top aide, Abdul Rauf, is also a former Gitmo detainee. Qayyum told his interrogators that he was conscripted by the Taliban and was not loyal to them, and Rauf also denied having close ties to the Taliban when he was imprisoned.

Wow. MK Ayoob Kara of the Likud Party says that Muslim states that do not have diplomatic relations with Israel have sent messages indicating their approval of a strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities. This is almost certainly a reference to Saudi Arabia. Consistent reports have surfaced that Egypt approves as well, but they have been at peace for decades. It is also likely that Bahrain, Yemen, the United Arab Emirates and Jordan are supportive of a strike.

He said that there is a “wall-to-wall coalition” of Muslim countries supporting an attack.

This from our friends in Iran. The People’s Mujahadeen of Iran has issued a call for an uprising on March 16. It reads in part:

… Rise and crash the dark religious oppression with the cry of “death to the principle of Supreme Leadership” and “death to dictator”. Blaze as high as possible the flames of the love for freedom. Rise in unity in all neighborhoods of Great Tehran, Isfahan, Shiraz, Mashad, Ahwaz, Zahedan and etc.
…Neither Bassij and RGC nor arrests and medieval trials and threats of execution cannot stop the stormy waves of the uprising…
The hated clerical dictatorship trembles in its roots in front of the uprising.
The uprising and the democratic revolution of people of Iran will not stop and will charge forward until the religious fascism is overthrown…
Break the suppression of the enemy and any kind of passivism in confronting Khamenei by not compromising and having outmost sacrifice…
The dazzling spring of freedom will prevail.

To provoke an atmosphere of fear and horror at the wake of “Feast of Fire Day” forces of RGC have established check points in different locations in Tehran including Haft-e-Tir (Rezaeeha) Sq. and Seyed-e-Khandan St.
Both RGC and Bassij forces stop the cars at these check points and street-interrogate the passengers and search them and the vehicle.

The criminal Pasdar, Radan, the successor of the head of SSF expressed his fear from the continuation of the nationwide uprising of Iranians and said: “New seditions are on their way. We must be on alert”.
Speaking amongst regime elements in Qom talking impudently just like his Imam (Khomeini) he said: “they took their own people and hid them and then said that ‘you had killed our supporters and pour acid on them’. They even established contact with their supporters in our prisons and told them ’say that we have been raped then we will give you money’ and when these prisoners told them that they were ashamed of saying such thing they were told ‘tell that we have been beaten by stick’”.

Saneie a source of canon law in Qom when asked about the charge of Mohareb for the participants in the Uprising against the regime of Supreme Leadership said that protesting against oppression is not only allowed but in some cases it is essential.
Saneie said: “each organized group or crowd who rises in arm and provokes disorder and horror against a legitimate and legal state that preserves order and security of the society and executes justice, those armed people are Moharebs and from my point of view the rest are not Moharebs and are not ‘Corrupts on Earth’”.
He added: “it must be said that if an organized crowd protests against the acts and behavior of the state and expresses that protest, it is decisively not Mohareb. Their act would be for defending their rights and standing in front of oppression imposed on them. Their protest is not only legitimate but in some levels of the protest a ‘must be’. So we must take sanctuary by God if these people are called Mohareb; this would be falsely charging Islam and is a great sin”.
In other news Makarem Shirazi denounced that he has given a Fatwa saying that those who had participated in the protests and thrown stone at the SSF deserve execution and said: “I had never issued such a Fatwa regarding these people”.

It is difficult sometimes to find the forest when all you see are the trees. What we are seeing in the news of the past few weeks are the trees. Some are mighty oaks. Some whispering willows. Some are cottonwoods. Some are tumbleweeds.

We are likely to forget in our haste to condemn the Iranian theocracy that these people may be crazy but they are not stupid. Iran ruled an empire that was the envy of the World until Alexander the Great came along. This the ayatollahs and some of the Persian people want to do again. This time they want to create a theocratic World empire ruled by the Hidden Imam with the Earthly assistance of Shiites, more particularly Persian Shiites. The followers of Ali are nothing if not persistent.

Iran’s weapon’s programs follow their strategic vision: Death to America. Death to Israel. Their hope is that these calamitous events will cause the Hidden Imam to come forth from the occultation and begin his rule. To give the Mahdi the greatest opportunity to reappear, Iran will start a major war in the Middle East to provide the conditions under which the Mahdi will arise.

So what kinds of weapons are the Iranians developing? As seen in today’s post they are developing short range cruise missiles to obtain superiority in the Persian Gulf. They have other cruise missiles that they will use against targets in the Gulf Cooperation Council states to disrupt their societies and destroy oil installations. They have developed various kinds of mines to block the Straits of Hormuz. They have developed the use of Rigid Raiders as a substitute for the major naval forces that would not last very long in an engagement with the U. S. Navy even though Iran just launched its first home made destroyer.

They have developed medium range and intermediate range ballistic missiles and are building a new launch site east of Tehran ostensibly for the launch of satellites. They have developed solid fuel missiles with the range necessary to hit Israel. They have fired intermediate range missiles which can hit most of Europe. They are probably working on a missile that can hit the United States from Iranian territory. They have fired missiles using a flight profile that would detonate a warhead to produce an electro-magnetic pulse (EMP). Such an EMP weapon detonated over the United States would produce considerable damage to our society and the electronic devices we depend on.

At the same time, the regime faces very serious internal dissension. it is highly doubtful that the protests that will be a part of the Feast of Fire will be sufficient to topple the mullahocracy. the regime has been in power too long. This regime can only be destroyed by military force. So far the regular Iranian military has shown little desire to get involved in the protests. If the Feast of Fire causes the regime to engage in acts of mass suppression and killing that may change. it is unknown how much carnage the regular Iranian military is willing to see before it acts.

In the face of these conditions the Iranians continue to poke the world with that proverbial sharp stick. Their primary objective, I believe, is to force Israel into a corner such that attacking Iran is their only way out. To this end the Iranians have armed Syria and Hezbollah with weapons that can reach the heart of Israel. They have recently transferred advanced shoulder-fired surface-to-air missiles to Hezbollah as well as installed radar sites on the highest mountain in Lebanon. All of this is aimed at deterring Israeli reconnaissance and close air support especially from helicopters. Should Hezbollah decide to go capture three more Israeli soldiers, getting them back becomes orders of magnitude more expensive and difficult for the IDF. Another poke with the stick.

I believe Iran is content and actually desires that the infidel attack them. Let us start the war so that they can say that they are defending themselves. However, the Yadzi faction, those who want to bring forth the Hidden Imam as soon as possible, will start the war if they cannot get us to take the bait. That is what makes Iran so dangerous.

Yahoo is carrying an Associated Press story that Iran has begun to produce cruise missiles.

Gen. Ahmad Vahidi told Iranian state TV that the cruise missile, called Nasr 1, would be capable of destroying targets up to 3,000 tons in size. The minister said the missile can be fired from ground-based launchers as well as ships, but would eventually be modified to be fired from helicopters and submarines. Tehran frequently makes announcements about new advances in military technology that cannot be independently verified.

Gen. Vahidi said the production of the cruise missiles, which took two years to develop, showed that sanctions on Iran have failed. He said the cruise missiles would strengthen Iran’s naval power.

Analysis. To follow.

The mullahocracy has some serious problems in front of it with the upcoming Feast of Fire. At a meeting on March 5th, the security organizations held a meeting to discuss their plans for and reactions to the presumed civil disobedience. The first problem the security forces have is that protests can form anywhere not just in the usual protest gathering places.

The participants decided to hold a psychological war and bring up the dangers of this feast and then implement safety limitations and use it for security means. Some of these measures are:
“We must start a psychological war, TV’s advertisement for the dangers is very effective and we must start from now and advertise the dangers of holding ‘Feast of Fire’. In this manner we can tighten the circle around people and announce from before hand that if some people intend to do deeds that would cause danger for the others they will be identified and introduced. We must discuss about the interior security and dangers for people’s lives and encourage people not to go out to watch the event. We must start as soon as possible to make people think that ‘Feast of Fire’ is superstitious and there is no such thing in our religion”.

The selling of any kind of explosives (i.e. firecrackers and other noise makers) has been prohibited. However, such things are still widely available in the bazaars. Preventive detention is also being used to prevent the sale of explosives. Using explosives to celebrate the Feast of Fire has long been a means of fighting against an oppressive regime.

The fight against Supreme Leadership goes back to Khomeini.

Morteza Nabavi a member of Expediency Council emphasized that PMOI defied Supreme Leadership from the beginning and stood in opposition to Khomeini.
Nababvi director of Resalat state-run daily affiliated with Khamenei’s fraction holding a speech referred to some interrogations on March 5, 1982 and said: “Bazargan (Khemoeni’s first prime minister) said the religion should be separated from policy and PMOI defied Supreme Leadership and stood in opposition to honorable Imam”.
He pointed to the fact that at that day the crowd chanted “down with clerics” and added: “they wanted to draw their lines with Islamic Revolution’s Committees (detentions centers) and RGC. When Imam’s picture was torn at Tehran University the crowd whistled and clapped and chanted for the freedom of political prisoners. Hypocrites (the name regime calls PMOI members) and Rajavi (Mr. Masoud Rajavi the leader of the resistance) supported the act. They stood in opposition with clergies, Islamic Republic Party, RGC and Islamic Revolution’s Committees. If somebody had beard those days they beat him at Tehran University counting him as a Hezbollahi”.

Workers at the Simin Textile factory protest that they had not been paid for six months.

The group Mothers of the Uprising are being kept under severe pressure and may of them have been arrested for trying to see family members who have been arrested. They themselves are being arrested.

In an inhuman act the clerical regime amputated the hand of a prisoner, Shoghi Z. charged with rubbery in Karoon prison in Ahwaz.
Also to provoke fear and horror they whipped a youth in Sosangerd in public. The youth Mehdi H. condemned to one year imprisonment in Hamedan Prison and five years of exile was lashed in public receiving 74 strokes. He was condemned of mullah-made charge of being wicked!

World Threats publishes the names of Iranians who have been arrested for protesting against the Khamenei regime so that they are known to the World outside Iran. Hopefully the major human rights groups will continue to harass the regime over the fate of these people.

The names of some political prisoners in Gohardasht Prison in Karaj obtained by Students Committee:
A.Prisoners in Advising Center No. 4:
1.Arjang Davoodi
2.Khaled Hardani
3.Mansour Radpoor
4.Reza Joshan
5.Saeed Masouri
6.Saleh Kohandel
7.Hood Yazarloo
8.Misagh Yazdannejad
9.Ali Saremi
10. Ali Moezi
11. Mohammad Ali Mansouri
12. Khaled Hashemi
13. Karim Maroof Hashemi
14. Mehdi Fetrat
15. Mohammad Osanlo
B.Prisoners stationed in Saloon No. 11
1.Payam Vali (arrested in the protests after the election has not yet received any decree)
2.Ahmad Ghahremani (arrested in the protests after the election has not yet received any decree)
3.Davood Moghadam (arrested during the protests of recent months)
4.Farid Hosseini arrested during the protests of recent months)
C.Prisoners stationed in Advising Center No. 1
1.Behrooz Javid Tehrani
D.Prisoners stationed in Advising Center No. 2
1.Masoud Bastani
2.Alireza Karami Khairabadi
E.Prisoners stationed in Advising Center No. 5
1.Farhang Poormansouri
2.Naseh Yousefi
F.Prisoners stationed in Advising Center No. 6
1.Ahmad Zaydabadi
2.Shahram Poormansouri
3.Ismail Ghordoee
G.Prisoners in women section (Nesvan Ward)
1.Kobra Banazadeh Amirkhizi
2.Zahra Joshan
The last four political prisoners that are mentioned beneath have been arrested during Ashura Uprising and are under interrogation since in solitary confinement of women section:
1.Somayeh Hossini
2.Fatemeh Raeesi
3.Maryam Bahrami
4.Jienous Sobhani

Iraq has held its fourth national election since the liberation of the country in 2003. This has also been the second parliamentary election. Dozens of parties took place and it appears that turnout was heavy. Despite violence, the election signifies great success for democracy:

Although open lists complicate the training of election staff and the counting of votes, the system enhances the role of the voter in the election beyond casting a vote simply for a political party, the assistance mission says.

At least 25 percent of the candidates on the ballot list of each political entity had to be women.

Yahoo is reporting a story from the Associated Press here that Adam Gadahn has been arrested in Karachi. Pakistan. Gadahn, who had been indicted for treason has been the English language spokesman for El Queda and a genuine pain in the ass. He converted to Islam at a mosque in Fullerton, California.

Analysis. The penalty for treason in time of war is death. Can’t come soon enough. He will get a trial in the civil courts as he is an American citizen. The only thing I can think of that will save his sorry ass is if he gives us bin Laden and Zawahiri on a silver platter. Good going guys!!! Beer is on me.

Click here for my latest NewsRealBlog post. As previously written about, campaign posters made in Iran are showing up in Basra attacking al-Maliki and trying to make it seem like Grand Ayatollah al-Sistani has endorsed the Iraqi National Alliance, which is most closely tied to Iran. The Iranians are trying to undermine both al-Maliki and Allawi’s blocs, but it looks like they are bringing out the big guns to stop Allawi’s cross-sectarian, secular bloc. The NRB post is copied below:

Yesterday, Pajamas Media published my article (click here) about the March 7 national elections in Iraq and how Iran is positioning itself to be “king maker.” A coalition will certainly have to be formed and so Iran is assisting its allies in the Iraqi National Alliance which includes the Sadrists and the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq, formerly called the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq. As I outline, Iran is hoping that either al-Maliki or Allawi’s secular, cross-sectarian bloc will align with them to capture control of the government.

Now, the National Council of Resistance of Iran, which is listed as a terrorist organization by the U.S. State Department, says that the regime is unleashing the Revolutionary Guards’ Al-Qods Force to kill secular officials and provoke sectarian warfare if their side doesn’t have sufficient power. Members of Iraq’s security forces opposed to Iran’s agenda will be specifically targeted.

Read the rest of this entry »

From MEMRI:

The Kuwaiti daily Al-Siyassa stated, citing a Sunni Ahwazi organization opposed to the Iranian regime, that Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) has equipped Russian SS-4 missiles with chemical warheads – mustard gas, sarin, and cyanide – and that they are aimed at the Gulf countries and other Arab countries.

The SS-4 has a range of about 2,000 km.

According to the report, the IRGC has stepped up research of biological weapons research, and Iran has a plan to occupy Jordan via Iraq.

The organization said that Iran is acting to uproot millions of Arab residents from western Ahwaz in order to secure its border with Iraq, and in order to defend its oil and gas fields in the region.

Source: Al-Siyassa, Kuwait, March 3, 2010

Click here for my latest article on Pajamas Media. This is about the March 7 national elections in Iraq. There are a few different struggles going on here. There is a battle against sectarianism, as the Iraqi National List is Shiite, and Ayad Allawi’s al-Iraqiya is an alliance between secular Shiites and Sunnis. Nouri al-Maliki’s State of Law slate also has some Sunni tribal support.

There is also a struggle for secularism, with Allawi’s bloc making it the staple of their campaign. Al-Maliki is also campaigning from a secular point of view but isn’t considered as secular as Allawi. The third struggle is with Iran. Allawi’s bloc is the most opposed to Iran’s influence, while the INL is the most closely tied to the mullahs. Al-Maliki has fought some Iranian-backed forces like the Sadrists but hasn’t taken a hard line on Iranian interference.

The Iranians are specifically trying to undermine al-Maliki. MEMRI reports that anti-Maliki posters printed in Iran are showing up in Basra and supporting the INL. They contain a photo of Grand Ayatollah al-Sistani, the top Shiite authority, with a quote making it sound like he’s against al-Maliki. This type of trickey was reported during the last elections as well. Al-Sistani has gone to great lengths to remain neutral and his philosophy is in direct contradiction to the type espoused by the Iranian government, but the Iranians recognize his popularity.