World Threats

The March 14 alliance, former Prime Minister Saad Hariri’s coalition party, announced its refusal to join Prime Minister-designate Najib Mikati’s cabinet last night, dealing another blow to the new government. Mikati, who has a close relationship with Syria’s Bashar Assad and has been denounced by the Sunnis as a traitor, is a billionaire who made his money in the telecom industry.

The March 14 alliance’s decision is the result of the government’s rejection of the alliance leadership’s fundamental demands, including the need to preserve the political regime by guaranteeing that the state maintains a monopoly on the use of force and restoring the authority of the state in determining Lebanon’s relations with Israel. Hezbollah’s enormous arsenal, refusal to disarm and stated goal of destroying Israel had been a constant cause of strain within Hariri’s government, and will continue to be a problem for Mikati as he seeks to lead a new coalition government.

The leaders of the March 14 alliance claim that joining Mikati would legitimize what they assert was a  coup by Hezbollah, instigated on January 12^th with the collapse of Saad Hariri’s government after the resignation of all Hezbollah ministers. Mikati has considered cancelling the  the Special Tribunal for Lebanon investigating former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri’s assassination, which prompted the mass resignation. Hariri deems that course of action unacceptable and has remained steadfast in his refusal to join Mikati, accusing foreign elements of hampering Lebanon’s ability to determine its own affairs.

The composition of the government in Lebanon is determined according to religious affiliation, in a long standing arrangement meant to balance power among Lebanon’s many religious sects. The President must be a Maronite Christian, the Prime Minister a Sunni Muslim and the Speaker of Parliament a Shia Muslim. Though meant to alleviate tensions, the power sharing rule has been the cause of many failed governments, including Saad Hariri’s, which was structured from the outset to perpetuate gridlock and prevent Hariri from dictating a meaningful agenda. Hezbollah’s necessary involvement in the new government only further exacerbates an already difficult arrangement. Any subsequent government will therefore likely suffer the same fate as Hariri’s- gridlock and eventual collapse- a realization that prompted over 500 people in Beirut to hold a protest (organized over Facebook) to call for an end to the power sharing arrangement and demand a democratic government.

MEMRI reports that Saad Hariri is calling on the Lebanese to protest against Hezbollah on March 14, the sixth anniversary of the assassination of his father.  The turnout will tell us a lot about whether the pending U.N. indictments of Hezbollah officials and the group’s takeover of the Lebanese government have cost them support. The first thing to look for is how many Shiites participate, as that will determine whether the conflict remains very sectarian in nature.

Update: Hezbollah has secured enough support to name the next Prime Minister and has chosen Najib Mikati.

Hezbollah has collapsed Lebanon’s government and has issued an ultimatum to Prime Minister Saad Hariri: Withdraw support for the U.N. Special Tribunal or be replaced. The terrorist group is fearful of the repercussions it faces from its impending indictment for killing former Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri and is holding Lebanon hostage.

The U.N. Special Tribunal has issued its sealed indictment that is believed to accuse high-level members of Hezbollah of carrying out the 2005 assassination, including the cousin of Imad Mughniyeh. One report suggests that the tribunal will state that Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamanei ordered the murder and the Syrian regime was complicit in it. It will be six to ten weeks before arrest warrants are issued, but Hezbollah and its Iranian and Syrian sponsors are taking pre-emptive action.

Hezbollah withdrew from the government, bringing about its collapse and is demanding that Hariri no longer be prime minister. To form the next government, a bloc must have at least 65 members of parliament supporting it. Hezbollah currently has 57 and Hariri has 60 but Druze leader Walid Jumblatt has announced his support for Hezbollah, potentially tipping the balance in favor of the Shiite terrorist group.

Click here to read the rest of my FPM article.

The Jerusalem Post is reporting that the United States will end aid to Lebanon if Hezbollah takes power.

A high-ranking American diplomat said that the US will not give any aid to Lebanon if Hizbullah is to lead the country’s new government, Asharq al-Awsat reported on Sunday morning. The diplomat reportedly said that a Hizbullah-led government will prevent Congress from agreeing to cooperate with Lebanon.

In addition Asharq al-Awsat is reporting that Hassan Nasrallah will not allow Saad Hariri to return as prime minister.

The Turkish source told Asharq Al-Awsat that after Saudi Arabia announced it was halting its efforts in this regard, Ankara – along with Qatar – sought to “secure communication between the [Lebanese] leaders, however the conservative position of Hezbollah with regards to the return of Prime Minister Saad Hariri was a huge obstacle that was difficult to circumvent, especially as the Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah held an extreme position [with regards to this].”

Also, Walid Jumblatt, head of the Druze Party, is now supporting “Syria and the resistance (Hezbollah)”.

Please read all of the cited articles for more important information.

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Multiple sources are reporting that eleven ministers who are members of Hezbollah or its allies have resigned from the Lebanese government lead by Saad Hariri. This from NOW! Lebanon.

Lebanon’s unity government collapsed on Wednesday after Hezbollah and its allies resigned from the cabinet over a UN probe into the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. Energy Minister Gebran Bassil told a press conference that 10 ministers from the 30-member cabinet had tendered their resignations because of a long-running dispute with Prime Minister Saad Hariri — son of the slain leader — over the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL). The announcement by Bassil, a member of the Christian Free Patriotic Movement close to Hezbollah, came just as Hariri was meeting in Washington with US President Barack Obama on the crisis. An 11th minister close to President Michel Sleiman also quit on Wednesday, thus providing the number of resignations needed to topple the government.

From the Jerusalem Post.

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Several news sources are reporting that Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri has gone to Tehran to discuss his country’s situation. From Now! Lebanon “Hariri will also meet with Iranian Supreme Guide Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Sunday afternoon and with Iranian Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani and Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad Sunday evening, the statement said.” The rest of this article may be found here. The Jerusalem Post provides more information on the reasons for his trip.

“This visit is important because of its timing, when Lebanon is in crisis because of the expected indictment of the Special Tribunal for Lebanon,” the source said. “The Iranians will try to reconcile points of view between Hizbullah and Sa’ad Hariri,” the source said. The source added that Sa’ad Hariri would support Iran’s “development of nuclear capabilities for civilian and peaceful purposes,” in exchange for help in pacifying Hizbullah.

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Debka is reporting that Hezbollah conducted a command post exercise in preparation for seizing control of Lebanon.

Hizballah last Thursday, Oct. 28, conducted a command exercise in all parts of Lebanon to test its armed militia’s readiness for what its leaders called “zero hour” i.e. asserting its grip on Lebanon and “cornering” Prime Minister Saad Hariri. Debkafile’s military sources report the exercise took all day and led up to the sabre-rattling speech delivered by Hizballah leader Hassan Nasrallah that night, which was interpreted by all Lebanese factions interpreted as a declaration of war on their government and the prologue to heating up the border with Israel.

The Shiite terrorist group made no bones about the reasons for its war stance – just the opposite:

1. Hizballah found it necessary to answer the Israel Defense Forces’ recent “electronic exercise,” in keeping with a top-level Iranian-Syrian-Hizballah decision never to leave any American or Israel military step without response.
2. It was a practice for the military action planned for the hours leading up to the Special Lebanese Tribunal’s issuance of indictments against Hizballah leaders for complicity in the assassination of Lebanese ex-prime minister Rafiq Hariri five years ago.

Please read the entire article for more important information.

Lebanon News is also reporting on this exercise.

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Debka is reporting that the Saudis are pressing Saad Hariri to resign as Lebanese Prime Minister.

In a sudden about-face, the Saudis Monday, Oct. 25, urged Lebanon’s pro-Western Prime Minister Saad Hariri to step down without delay and make way for an administration dominated by pro-Syrian ministers and Hizballah. King Abdullah, according to Debkafile’s Middle East and Beirut sources, sees no other way of saving Lebanon from tipping over into civil strife over Hizballah’s demand to disband the international tribunal probing the 2005 murder of former prime minister Rafiq Hariri.

Last week, Hariri confided to US Deputy Secretary of State Jeffrey Feltman he was close to resigning and giving way to the Saudi King, long a friend of the Hariri family, now siding with its antagonists. When Riyadh saw he was sticking to his guns, the Saudi mouthpiece Asharq al-Awsat published an article of a sort rarely seen in the Arab media telling the Lebanese prime minister in no uncertain terms that he had [no] choice in the matter. Chief Editor Tariq Alhomayed warned Saad Hariri that he had run out of options and the only thing left him was to follow his father’s example and resign as prime minister as Rafiq Hariri did in late 2004.

Please read the entire article for more important information. You can read the Asharq al-Awsat article here.

Analysis. I read the Asharq al-Awsat article. Here is the heart of it.

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Veni. Vidi. Vici. (Julius Caesar)

Ahmadinejad did more than go to the Israeli border. Beirut Online is reporting on 17 trade agreements signed between Lebanon and Iran.

Lebanon and Iran Wednesday signed 17 trade agreements in the economic, oil and energy fields, as visiting Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said that Tehran is capable of solving the country’s chronic electricity problems. … Among the key agreements which were signed at the Presidential Palace was an energy accord between Energy and Water Minister Jibran Bassil and Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki. Details of the agreement were not disclosed during the signing ceremony, but Bassil has on previous occasions assured that Iran can help Lebanon build power plants at very competitive rates.

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Reports from multiple sources on President Ahmadinejad’s first day in Lebanon. Beirut Online is reporting on Ahmadinejad’s activities shortly after his arrival.

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has arrived in Lebanon for a visit seen as a boost for Tehran’s Shia ally Hezbollah, an enemy of Israel. The two-day visit will include a tour of villages along Lebanon’s tense border with Israel. The region was devastated during the 2006 war between Hezbollah and Israel and rebuilt partly with Iranian money. During his visit, Mr Ahmadinejad will meet President Michel Suleiman and Prime Minister Saad Hariri. He will also attend a rally in the capital Beirut organized by Hezbollah.

Huge crowds gathered in the streets of Beirut on Wednesday to welcome Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as he arrives on a controversial visit that will take him to the doorstep of arch-foe Israel. The streets to Beirut’s airport were lined from early morning by thousands of people, mostly Hizbullah supporters, many of them carrying or draped in Iranian flags. Huge pictures of the Iranian leader were also on display along with flower baskets placed along the airport road and large balloons in the red, green and white colors of the Iranian flag. Many streets leading to the airport, located near Hizbullah’s stronghold in the southern suburbs, were cordoned off amid tight security. The downtown area near the hotel where Ahmadinejad is staying was also off limits to traffic.

At a press conference with President Suliman of Lebanon:

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Jerusalem Post is reporting that this is what King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia said to Ahmadinejad in a phone call prior to Ahmadinejad departing Iran for Beirut.

Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah bin Abdul Aziz called on Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad not to cause an irreversible situation during the his expected visit to Lebanon on Wednesday, Channel 10 reported Tuesday. Abdullah made the comments during telephone conversation between the two leaders and told Ahmadinejad “we still need Lebanon.” … Officials in Jerusalem have said that Lebanon, not Israel, would be the party to suffer most from Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s scheduled visit next week to southern Lebanon. “Lebanon is the primary victim, and if it wants to stop slipping into the jaws of the Iranian crocodile, it – and the moderate Arab world – should raise a strong voice and say this provocateur is not welcome,” Foreign Ministry spokesman Yossi Levy said. (Edited for space).

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