World Threats

Abdul Majeed Abid is a medical graduate in Lahore, Pakistan that first began writing criticisms of Islamism in Urdu last year. He is the assistant-editor at Pak Tea House, a leading blog in Pakistan that promotes liberal values, where he regularly challenges political Islam, conspiracy theories and historical biases in Pakistani textbooks and pop culture.

Here’s an excerpt from our interview:

Religion is considered sacrosanct in Pakistani society and the only discussion about it is in the garb of reverence. There is little realization in the educated classes of Pakistan about the differences between Islam and Islamism. I was part of that group until the assassination of the governor of the largest province by one of his own guards because the governor had expressed dislike for the blasphemy laws of Pakistan.

Those laws, enacted by the military dictator, General Zia ul-Haq, were considered to be derived from the Quran and Hadiths, the two primary sources of Islamic jurisprudence. In fact, those laws were not based on any religious texts at all. The realization that dawned upon me and on people like me after the murder was that the space for religious discourage in this country is almost over. That particular incident became the core inspiration of my writings critical towards Islamism and the overindulgence of it in Pakistan. That murder made a lot of progressive voices decide that enough was enough and something had to be done by the civil society regarding this.

Click here to read the entire interview at RadicalIslam.org.

President Obama boasts that 22 of Al-Qaeda’s top 30 leaders have been killed on his watch, mostly by drone strikes (The Long War Journal doubts this claim). That number just grew to 23, with U.S. officials confirming that Abu Yahya al-Libi has been killed in a drone strike in Pakistan.

This is devastating for Al-Qaeda. Libi was the second-in-command of the group, only surpassed by Ayman al-Zawahiri in importance. He performed many roles for the group: As the “gatekeeper” between field operatives and the leadership; an administrator in Al-Qaeda’s Shura Council; a terrorist trainer; an operations manager; a dynamic spokesman, releasing more tapes than any other Al-Qaeda figure in recent years and a cleric, drawing upon his advanced religious education in Mauritania to preach and issue fatwas with authority.

“There is no one who even comes close in terms of replacing the expertise Al -Qaeda has just lost,” a U.S. official said.

Libi’s escape from America’s Bagram Air Base in Afghanistan brought his reputation to a whole new level. He was captured in 2002 and held until July 2005 when he and several of his terrorist colleagues (including Al-Qaeda’s former top operative in Southeast Asia) snuck out of the maximum-security prison. The terrorists took careful watch of the facility’s security procedures, identifying loopholes. Somehow, they were able to pick the locks on their jail cells, change their outfits and crawl over a wall. One of their terrorist friends was waiting in a truck. The escape set off a fruitless manhunt.

The strike happened in the village of Hassu Khel, a village near Mir Ali, in North Waziristan, Pakistan. The drone blew up the compound he was staying at and a pickup truck next to it, killing a total of 16 people. One resident says that Libi was there recovering from an injury he suffered in another drone strike that happened on May 28.

Click here to read the rest of my article at RadicalIslam.org.

The Christian Post quoted me extensively in their report on Al-Qaeda’s releasing of a video of Warren Weinstein begging President Obama to give into Al-Qaeda’s demands so he can be released by the terrorist group. Below is an excerpt:

Al-Qaida’s demands are not reasonable at all,” Ryan Mauro, national security analyst at RadicalIslam.org, told The Christian Post, adding that the terrorists surely made Weinstein describe these demands as “easy,” against all logic. “They [al-Qaida] set the bar so high that it can’t realistically expect the U.S. to contemplate giving in.”

Traditionally, the U.S. is known to practice a policy of not negotiating with terrorists.

Mauro adds that it is very little likely the U.S. would engage in negotiations, given that it would be very unreasonable.

“Al-Qaeda would be politically impossible and a waste of time. If the U.S. gives in to any of Al-Qaeda’s demands, it only vindicates their methods and guarantees further kidnappings,” he told CP via email Monday. The terror group is looking to make a “splash” to show its presence one year after bin Laden, its leader, was killed by the U.S. forces, the analyst adds. “The U.S. says Al-Qaeda is near defeat and the terrorist group is under immense pressure to show that it is still effective,” Mauro told CP.

Click here to read the rest of the Christian Post story.

Taliban-linked terrorists carried out a coordinated wave of dramatic attacks on high-profile targets across Afghanistan on Sunday ahead of a planned NATO-Afghan offensive. At the same time, Islamist terrorists broke into a jail in Pakistan, freeing nearly 400 prisoners, including 20 terrorists labeled as “very dangerous.” The sophistication of the attacks worries NATO and Afghan officials.

Seven attacks occurred simultaneously at about 1:45 PM. The fighting lasted for over 18 hours in Kabul and the capitals of Paktia, Logar and Nangarhar provinces. Several embassies, police stations, a NATO base, the Kabul Star Hotel, an airport and the parliament building all came under attack. The targets were chosen based on prominence instead of creating maximum casualties. The Islamist enemy’s goal was to demonstrate that no target is safe and to show off its ability to conduct complicated operations.

The attacks are also meant to discourage the Afghans and the American public. About 66% of Americans now oppose the war in Afghanistan and 70% believe that the Afghan population does not support the U.S. military presence. Only 22% believe the Afghans support American involvement.

Click here to read the rest of my FPM article.

North Korea launched its Unha-3 missile yesterday in defiance of its neighbors and the U.S., but it didn’t go as planned. The missile broke apart only minutes after takeoff. Now, Kim Jong-Un must do something to save face, guaranteeing that he won’t back down from carrying out a third nuclear test in the coming days.

North Korea’s adversaries loudly protested the planned missile launch. The regime claimed it was innocently launching a satellite, but the technology is almost exactly the same as what is needed for a long-range ballistic missile. It was obvious that North Korea was testing its ability to strike as far away as the continental U.S. and Australia. Japan and South Korea threatened to shoot it down if it entered their airspaces. The regime proudly granted the worldwide media permission to come see the rocket, prompting the U.S. government to caution journalists that they could be feeding into its propaganda.

The U.S. warned that it would torpedo a deal struck on February 29 where the North Koreans would permit inspections of its nuclear facilities, end its nuclear weapons programs and stop testing missiles. In return, the U.S. would provide 240,000 metric tons of food desperately needed by the starving population. American officials assured the public that the delivery would be tightly monitored to make sure that the aid wasn’t diverted to the regime.

Click here to read the rest of my FPM article.

The U.S. is now offering $10 million for information leading to the arrest and conviction of Hafiz Saeed, the founder of the Lashkar-e-Taiba (LET) terrorist group most famous for its 2008 attacks in Mumbai that killed 166 people, including 6 Americans. His response was to hold a public press conference and crack jokes while Pakistani officials again lashed out at the U.S.

After the bounty was announced, Saeed held an event across from the Pakistani military headquarters in Rawalpindi, only about 40 minutes from the U.S. embassy in the capital. He has operated openly in Pakistan since his house arrest ended in 2009, during which he still preached to thousands.

Saeed defiantly said, “I am here. I am visible” and joked that “America should give that reward money to me.” He announced that he’d be in Lahore the next day if the U.S. wishes to come get him.

State Department spokesman Mark Toner clarified that the U.S. bounty was different from the one that was placed on Bin Laden. The problem isn’t finding him. “We all know where is…every journalist in Pakistan knows where he is,” Toner explained. The award is for information that can “give the Pakistani government the tools to arrest him” so his “brazen flouting of the justice system” comes to an end.

Click here to read the rest of my FSM article.

Ryan Mauro: First, can you introduce yourself to our readers?

Qazi Qayyoom:  It’s my pleasure. After I finished my Islamic studies in Bangladesh, I established an Islamic kindergarten school in my hometown of Beanibazar in Sylhet in 1985. That’s where I started my carrier as an Islamic teacher and imam. It was the only school in the country that was not run by a radical Islamic group called Jamaat-e-Islami, which is a hub of modern terrorism, in my view.

When they realized that I was not one of them, they began harassing me in different ways. As a result, I had a leave the country. I came to the U.S. in 1991 and became an Islamic home tutor. In 1996, some Bangladeshis of Elmhurst, Queens asked me to become the imam at the newly-started Elmhurst Islamic Center.

When Islamic terrorists took credit for the attacks on September 11/2001 and said they did it for Islam, I was disturbed. Islam doesn’t tell its followers to kill innocent people like this. I began giving my Friday sermons against radicalism, extremism and terrorism. I started educating kids against these inhumane activities in the name of Islam. But unfortunately, few attendees and some committee members of Elmhust Islamic Center went against me and started giving me a hard time by stopping my salary and getting other radical-minded imams to harass me. I had no money to buy milk for my newborn daughter, who was born on Christmas of 2002.

Click here to read the rest of my interview at RadicalIslam.org.

Color me skeptical, but it would be interesting, nonetheless. The Russia Today is reporting that Osama bin Laden’s corpse was not buried at sea, which was stated after his death last May. This news came leaked from Wikileaks, which cites Stratfor, an intelligence website.

Stratfor’s vice-president for intelligence, Fred Burton, believes the body was “bound for Dover, [Delaware] on [a] CIA plane” and then “onward to the Armed Forces Institute of Pathology in Bethesda [Maryland],” an email says.

Weird.

The U.S. and North Korea announced yesterday that a breakthrough had been reached. North Korea will suspend its uranium enrichment program, stop testing nuclear weapons and long-range missiles and allow inspectors to check out its nuclear sites. In return, the U.S. will provide 240,000 metric tons of food aid annually. It sounds like a good deal, but will it help save a teetering regime with a human rights record comparable only to Nazi Germany and Stalinist Russia?

The major concern is that the food aid will be diverted to the regime and the military instead of its starving population and then violate its agreements.

“The destitute North Korean economy needs foreign aid to avoid collapse. North Korea follows a now clear cycle of ostentatiously dangerous conduct followed by a conciliatory gesture that brings its neighbors and the U.S. rushing to the negotiating table, bearing goodies,” writes Christian Whiton, a former deputy special envoy for human rights in North Korea.

Click here to read the rest of my FPM article.

There is good news for Chinese activists striving for democracy, the country’s oppressed religious minorities and those fearful of Communist China’s rise. The number of anti-government protests is rising and top experts expect the arrival of a democratic China, with one, Gordon Chang, evenpredicting the fall of the ruling Communist Party this year.

The signs of a forthcoming Chinese Spring began surfacing immediately after the Arab Spring began in Tunisia early last year. Over 100 activists were arrested or put on house arrest in a single sweep. Security was out in force and a huge amount of text messages and websites were blocked. Tunisia’s Jasmine Revolution made the government so anxious that it even blocked the word “jasmine” from being searched on social networking websites. Hundreds still assembled in Beijing, Shanghai and elsewhere to peacefully express their desire for change.

In July, there were riots in Guizhou Province after a peddler with only one leg was killed, allegedly by government personnel. The incident brought attention to the unrest in the province that locals said is common but unreported. One resident wrote online, “In truth, China experiences riots worse than those in England every single week.”

Click here to read the rest of my article for the Institute on Religion & Democracy.

While the Arab League and Western nations are pushing a U.N. Security Council vote to oust Syrian strongman Bashar Assad from power peacefully, Russia – along with China, and India – are defiantly standing against any plan to interfere on the behalf of anti-Assad protesters as the country nears civil war.

Reportedly 10 of 15 Security Council members are onboard with the plan, but both Russia and China have veto power over any proposed resolution, and considering the alliance Moscow has with Syria’s government on military matters (arms purchases and naval bases) that veto would definitely be used.

But the real story isn’t Russia and China defending human rights abuses in Syria, which they do on a fairly regular basis, but India, who is supposedly allied with the West on democracy and economics, opposing the United States for the second time this week in regards to Middle Eastern instability.

India has announced, despite the European Union and United States increasing sanctions on the Iranian regime, that they will continue, along with China, to import oil from the belligerent Persians, who have threatened to shut down the Straits of Hormuz, and are moving towards obtaining a nuclear weapon.

Their reasons are supposedly based on economics, but Europe’s going to take a massive hit for uniting with America on this very important issue, so do they prefer cheap oil to a nuclear armed Iran gunning for war with Israel? Apparently so, and they didn’t support the Western world when we went to war in Libya, either.

I don’t understand the Indians on this. Are they trying to remain neutral with potentially the greatest threat to mankind right now for the continuing sale of cheap oil? I hope not, considering they might secure a seat on the U.N. Security Council one day and could use that position to veto action against Iran someday to benefit their own needs.

As North Korea prepares for Kim Jong-Il’s state funeral, speculation is growing over how effectively the ruling coterie of family and senior military officials can continue sharing power with successor-son Kim Jong-un. All eyes will be on Wednesday’s ceremony for clues about the cohesion of this leadership group, which includes the state’s senior most general, Ri Yong-ho, and the late Kim Jon-Il’s brother-in-law, Jan Song-thaek.

Central to North Korea’s future will be the degree to which China can continue to undermine Korean reunification. With nearly $7 trillion dollars in mineral wealth on the line, Bejing is hardly expected to support a new leader that would aim to increase economic and political ties with other nations.

Significant uncertainties, however, remain as there are signs North Korea could seek warmer relations with the South and possibly allow increased foreign investment. This week, former South Korean first lady Lee Hee-ho and Hyundai Group chairwoman Hyun Jeong-eun were received as South Korean representatives by North Korean leader Kin Jong-un.

While it’s anybody’s guess what the current government has planned, strategic planning consultancy Wikistrat has forecast three potential scenarios for North Korea’s future:

Best case: Slow liberalization-by-committee.  In this scenario, either Kim Jong-un or his uncle Jang Song-Thaek open North Korea to special economic zones, north and south, that let in, respectively, Chinese and South Korean direct investment. Over the years, the two neighbors achieve trustee-like control over North Korea that leverages China and South Korea’s financial heft. Meanwhile, North Korea opens up its doors and relaxes its economic and political constraints upon the population.

Middle path: More of the same.  In this scenario, the North Korean military steps back just enough to let Kim Jong-un’s generation wipe out the Old Guard over time, using the pretext of “foreign aggression” to stage the usual purges. As Beijing signs off, Kim Jong-un can prove he’s got the old man’s guts, successfully grab the reins of power and salute the generals with a reasserted “military first” policy. This way, China retains North Korea as a thorny prod to the U.S., which is committed to strategically “pivoting” to East Asia.

Worst case: A Chinese-backed military dictatorship. If things get really bad, Beijing might simply extract all the mineral wealth it can before turning over the carcass of North Korea to South Korea and the Americans for the super-costly rehabilitation.

For more, read Wikistrat’s special report for Fareed Zakaria’s GPS blog, at CNN.com

On December 17, North Korean dictator Kim Jong-Il died. The state pressannounced that his youngest son, Kim Jong-Un, is the “great successor.” There’s a clear pattern where each step towards succession is accompanied with a provocation, reflecting the regime’s belief that its ills can be cured through conflict. At only 27 or 28 years old, Kim Jong-Un is out to prove himself, and the short-range missile test that followed his official takeover isn’t going to cut it.

Kim Jong-Un is largely a mystery. He wasn’t even formally mentioned in North Korea’s state press until October 2010. His age, mother and marital status aren’t even known. It is reported that British intelligence assess that he has an “explosive temper” and suffers from severe hypertension, giving little hope that his mental state is any better than his father’s.

In October 2010, he was given the rank of a four-star general, even though he has no military experience whatsoever. His young age, lack of experience and the decreasing support of the North Korean army and population make it difficult for Kim Jong-Un to ensure the stability of the regime. A cable published by Wikileaks reveals that the top national security advisor to the South Korean president believes the regime will collapse within 2 to 3 years after Kim Jong-Il’s death.

Click here to read the rest of my FPM article.