World Threats

The main rationale of opponents of U.S. involvement in Libya is that Muammar Qaddafi was not a threat. After Saddam Hussein was found in a hole, Qaddafi finally decided to give up all of his WMD. The recent discovery of hundreds of artillery shells filled with liquid mustard agent, a deadly chemical weapon, dramatically changes what we know about the threat from Qaddafi.

Qaddafi’s secret chemical weapons stockpiles, which no one in the West knew existed, are thought to have been custom-made for the Libyan dictator by Iran. They were delivered over a period of years and not in one large shipment. According to one of Qaddafi’s commanders, the only reason they weren’t used is because Qaddafi’s forces were unable to reach them because of NATO airpower. The alliance did not realize it at the time, but its intervention almost certainly stopped a massacre with chemical weapons.

Click here to read the rest of my FSM article.

After seven long months of hard fighting by Rebels on the ground and NATO in the air, with the liberation of Libya from the dictatorship of a “mad dog”, the ultimate victory has been accomplished in Libya this morning: Muammar Qaddafi was killed during the fall of his hometown Sirte.

As someone who has closely followed this military uprising since March, I am left without words to describe the emotions of victory welling up inside of me. To think that the Rebels were at the point of massacre before NATO intervened in Benghazi and destroyed Qaddafi’s air force, and now they have won their country back is amazing.

Obviously, the Rebels have lots of work to do when it comes to instituting a new government – one I hope is reflective of liberal, pluralistic values and not dogmatic, islamic morals – but they have aided the world in one way that we should always be thankful for: ending the four decade reign of Qaddafi, who was responsible for the deaths of hundreds of Americans and Britons.

This video has leaked from Libya:

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At long last, Muammar Qaddafi has suffered the same fate that he dealt to countless Libyans in his bloodthirsty quest to remain in power. The National Transitional Council has confirmed that Qaddafi died from his wounds, and a picture from a cell phone showing his wounded body at the time of his arrest.

The details are sketchy. The information available says that Qaddafi was in a convoy trying to leave Sirte that came under attack from NATO aircraft and NTC gunfire. He suffered serious wounds to his head and both legs and was found in a hole in District 2 of the city, which is his hometown. He is reported to have pled, “Don’t shoot, Don’t shoot!” A soldier present at the arrest claims that he struck Qaddafi with his shoe, and another claims to have confiscated his legendary golden pistol.

Qaddafi’s top military official, Abu Bakr Younus Jabr, was also killed. There are contradictory reports about the fate of Mutassim Qaddafi. Saif al-Islam remains at large.

Back on September 2, I reviewed the contradictory reports about Qaddafi’s hiding spot. Different accounts put him in Sirte, Sabha, Bin Walid or Ghadamis, a town on the Algerian border. The lattermost option received the less attention:

An Algerian newspaper reports that Qaddafi was in the border town of Ghadamis when he called the Algerian President to ask for entry. According to the report, he refused to take his call. This could very well just be a planted story by the Algerian government to try to make nice with the NTC after taking in some of Qaddafi’s family members (such as Hannibal, his son) and materially supporting the regime during the civil war.

Now, the NTC is thinking that he is in Ghadamis, protected by Tuareg tribesmen. Saif al-Islam is said to still be in Bani Walid and Mutassem is in Sirte. The senior official said that Qaddafi may have moved to Ghadamis a week ago from Samnu. Support this account is the fact that Qaddafi loyalists just attacked the Libyan forces in Ghadamis after crossing over from Algeria.

Meanwhile, the Guardian has this interesting piece of information:

It was reported from Belarus, meanwhile, that a military plane from Libya landed in Minsk on Monday with 15 people on board. It was immediately moved into a hangar. The Belorusski Partizan said it was met by diplomats and intelligence officials, fuelling rumours that Gaddafi and his family were on the aircraft.

The conflict in Libya has entered a new phase, as the Islamists, some of whom have had Al-Qaeda ties, are locking horns with the secularists over who will lead the country. NATO is worried enough about the outcome to warn of the possibility of an Islamist takeover.

The first shot was fired between the two sides when the NTC’s top military commander, General Abdul Fattah Younes, was assassinated. It was blamed on the Obaida Ibn Jarrah Brigade, an Islamist militia with many fighters affiliated with the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group. The two sides have been focused on their common enemy — until now.

The Islamists seek to depose Mahmoud Jibril, the Prime Minister of the NTC, who is an opponent of them. The vice chairman of the NTC has also stated, “There is no place for an Islamic state in Libya.” The two leading Islamists are a popular preacher named Ali Sallabi and Abdel-Hakim Belhaj, the commander of forces in Libya. The rivalry became heated recently after the NTC established the Supreme Security Committee to bring all of the militias under its control, including that of Belhaj’s. The Islamists are condemning Jibril, with Sallabi calling him part of a group of “extreme secularists” who will bring about a “new era of tyranny and dictatorship” that will be worse than Qaddafi’s.

Click here to read the rest of my FPM article.

The Libyan rebels claim they have surrounded Muammar Qaddafi a 40 mile area and that his most influential son, Saif al-Islam, has been seen in Bani Walid. As the hunt continues, Qaddafi loyalists are fleeing to nearby countries and concerns about the power of the Islamists and inter-tribal tensions are heightening. The country remains on the edge.

The Libyan rebels say they are preventing Qaddafi’s planned escape to the south, and have boxed him into an area of 40 miles. Previously, a National Transitional Council official said that “someone we trust” informed them that the former dictator is in Bani Walid with his son, Saif al-Islam, and Abdullah al-Senoussi, his intelligence chief.  The rebels now contradict their source’s account, saying they are “almost certain” that al-Senoussi was killed in a clash in Tarhouna, along with Khamis Qaddafi. A NTC spokesman said they “know” that Saif al-Islam and Mutassim Qaddafi, a security advisor to Muammar, are in Bani Walid.

Click here to read the rest of my FPM article.

The location of Muammar Qaddafi and Saif al-Islam is the big question. Khamis’ death is nearly confirmed. The speculation is on four areas: Bani Walid, Sabha, Sirte (his hometown) and the border town of Ghadamis. In other words, they don’t know where he is.

The member of Khamis’ security detail who was present at the final meeting between him and his father in Tripoli said he heard a driver say Muammar Qaddafi was going to Sabha. Now, a top rebel military official says “someone we trust” puts Qaddafi in Bani Walid with Saif al-Islam and Abdullah al-Senoussi, the intelligence chief recently reported killed in the same clash that allegedly killed Khamis.

A deputy rebel commander describes Bani Walid as being almost completely full of Qaddafi supporters, but predicted it would fall into rebel hands once Sirte falls. The rebels are hesitant to go into Bani Walid because many of the rebels have tribal links there.  There are also long-standing tensions between the tribes of Bani Walid and the tribes of the Misrata area.

An Algerian newspaper reports that Qaddafi was in the border town of Ghadamis when he called the Algerian President to ask for entry. According to the report, he refused to take his call. This could very well just be a planted story by the Algerian government to try to make nice with the NTC after taking in some of Qaddafi’s family members (such as Hannibal, his son) and materially supporting the regime during the civil war.

New details have come out about the family members’ movement to Algeria. A team of 35 mercenaries who used to be a part of the South African special forces were paid $15,000 apiece to get them there safely.

On another note, I’m surprised I’m not hearing more about this one line in Qaddafi’s latest audiotape release: “We will not give up. We are not women.”

Update: A senior rebel commander believes Qaddafi is either in Bani Walid or Sirte. Excerpt from my FrontPage article below:

The Libyan National Transitional Council (NTC) is facing its first foreign confrontation after Algeria decided to permit the entry of two of Qaddafi’s sons, his second wife and his daughter. The Libyan rebels have long accused Algeria of taking Qaddafi’s side in the civil war. At the same time, the search for Qaddafi and his other sons continue, with one close associate claiming the dictator fled to the city of Sabha.

There were rumors that Qaddafi and his sons fled to Algeria as Tripoli fell to the rebels. A convoy of six armored vehicles were said to have crossed into Algeria. The Algerian government denied the account. On Monday, the Algerian government confirmed that Safia, Qaddafi’s second wife and his daughter, Aisha, were in its territory. Aisha gave birth to a girl after crossing into Algeria. Two of Qaddafi’s sons and an unknown number of grandchildren also entered the country. Mohammed Qaddafi escaped after having his house surrounded by rebel forces. Hannibal Qaddafi is best known as a playboy who was arrested in Switzerland in 2008 for assault. He was later heard saying, “If I had an atom bomb, I would wipe Switzerland off the map.”

Click here to read the rest of my FPM article.

The speculation as to where Muammar Qaddafi has gone to is now focusing on two locations: His compound in Tripoli that is still being defended by regime loyalists and Sirte, which has tribal ties to Qaddafi and remains under the regime’s control.

A neighbor to the Tripoli compound had this to say:

“When I climb the stairs and look from the roof, I see nothing at Bab al-Aziziyah. It is totally deserted except for the house which was raided by U.S. in 1986. Nothing else is there. Qaddafi can’t be there,” he said. “NATO has demolished it all and nothing remained.”

Three SCUD-type missiles were fired from Sirte today, with NATO intercepting at least one of them. The Pentagon believes he remains in Libya, contradicting reports that he fled to Algeria. The city of Sabha is also under the regime’s control still as well.

The rebels have announced that they have captured al-Saadi Qaddafi, another one of his sons. However, Mohammed Qaddafi, who was previously trapped, has escaped. The bodies of Khamis al-Qaddafi, who led the feared Khamis Brigades, and intelligence chief Abdallah Senussi are believed to have been found.

Below is an excerpt from my latest FPM article. Please note previous post on fighting going on around Qaddafi’s compound, where he may be hiding.

The reign of Muammar Qaddafi has come to an end. That he was a cruel despot deserving of an unforgiving end is a given, but now a new chapter in Libya, rife with uncharted, ominous struggles has begun. Foremost among theses struggles will be preventing the ensuing anarchy and civil strife brought on by Qaddafi’s defeat from being utilized by Islamists to gain power and to establish a Sharia state. With the likes of Al-Qaeda, Hezbollah, Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood openly supporting the Libyan rebels, the danger is that the downfall of the proverbial devil we knew, Qaddafi, may yet unleash something far worse.

The International Criminal Court confirms that Saif al-Islam, Muammar Qaddafi’s likely heir, has been captured by the rebels. It is also confirmed that Mohammed Qaddafi, another one of the dictator’s sons, has been taken into custody. There are unconfirmed reports that Qaddafi himself had been arrested as he was preparing an escape to Tunisia, while other accounts claim he is in Algeria. It is incontestable that the rebels in Libya are victorious, no matter what the truth is.

The overthrow of Qaddafi came even quicker than the rebels expected. They originally pledged to defeat him by the end of August, and then a defector predicted victory within 10 days. Qaddafi’s loyalists failed to put up much of a fight in the western parts of Tripoli. Apparently, they recognized that defeat was inevitable, as the city faced offensives on three sides, and the strategic oil city of Zawiyah fell. The unit in charge of protecting Qaddafi surrendered, and the dictator offered to directly negotiate with the rebel leadership. The Green Square was soon swarmed by rebel supporters, bringing Qaddafi’s rule effectively to an end.

Click here to read the rest of my FPM article.

It’s safe to assume that earlier reports that Muammar Qaddafi was captured are incorrect. Like we warned, rumors like these can quickly spread in an environment of war. There is still fighting going on, and the rebels would not wait this long on an announcement when it could make the last holdouts give up. Foreign journalists are being held at the Rixos hotel and there are ongoing clashes around Qaddafi’s compound, where he may be.

South Africa is reportedly leading the negotiations with Qaddafi on finding a place of refuge for him, with Zimbabwe and Angola named as the most likely places (though there are some rumors that he fled to Algeria, but there are good reasons to doubt these). However, why would the rebels offer him any type of deal now as they are so close to victory? There is no reason to settle for anything less than his arrest and prosecution by the International Criminal Court.

As we reported tonight, there are unconfirmed reports (including one directly delivered to us) that Muammar Qaddafi has been captured as he prepared to escape to Tunisia. The delay of President Obama in making a statement supports these reports, but there are other contradictory accounts.

There are also rumors that Qaddafi is in Algeria. The Algerian government has been accused of backing the Qaddafi regime, apparently fearful that a successful revolution in Libya would spread to its own country.

At the same time, the various cable news programs are saying that there are still some snipers in Tripoli fighting on and that the compound that Qaddafi’s personal compound has not yet been seized.

My friend in Libya, Susanne Tarkowski Tempelhof, reports “‎3 independent sources have confirmed Gaddafi’s capture by the Tunisian border!! Still need to wait and see for 100% confirmation….”

It is unclear if one of her sources is my original report, but that means between the two of us, there is a minimum of three sources reporting the same thing.

Al-Jazeera is also saying that “Reuters reports: US president Obama says he will make a statement on Libya when he has full confirmation on what is happening.”

Is he waiting until Qaddafi’s capture is verified to make a statement?

Let’s hope this isn’t a bad case of circular reporting…

There’s going to be lots of rumors flying around as Qaddafi’s rule comes to an end, but for what’s worth, a source that will remain anonymous is telling me that Muammar Qaddafi has been captured as he prepared to flee to Tunisia. According to the source, Saif al-Islam and Mohammed Qaddafi are in custody and will be transferred to The Hague tomorrow.

This report is based on a single source and there is no confirmation from a second source yet.