World Threats

On Friday, February 1, a suicide bombing took place outside the U.S. embassy in Turkey, killing a Turkish security guard and wounding another. The Turkish government says this was not the work of Islamist terrorists. The bomber belonged to the Revolutionary People’s Liberation Party/Front (DHKP-C), a Marxist-Leninist terrorist group and a group has ties to the Assad dictatorship of Syria. This raises the possibility that Assad used DHKP-C to take revenge on Turkey for supporting the Syrian rebels.

DHKP-C was viewed as a has-been terrorist group from the Cold War era. Starting out in the 1970s, it carried out attacks on Western targets in Turkey but hasn’t received much attention. The suicide bomber that carried out Friday’s attack was previously arrested in 1997 in connection with rocket attacks on a police station and a military officers’ club. He was released from prison after a hunger strike did severe damage to his brain. The group’s suicide attackers often have incurable diseases.

“Syria has provided a lot of facilities to this group, including camps, ammunition, etc. They had a really close relationship with Syrian intelligence,” said Nihat Ali Ozcan, a Turkish terrorism expert.

Click here to read the rest of my article.

Hezbollah commander Ali Hussein Nassif was killed in Syria. The terror group is saying that it was carrying out jihad while the Free Syrian Army said it was due to an ambush.

Developing…

Al-Qaeda’s leadership is about to be replenished, thanks to Syria and Iran. Everyone knows about the Al-Qaeda leadership in Pakistan that is being decimated by drones. Almost no one knows about the Al-Qaeda Shura Council in Iran that has operated there since at least 2001 in a limited manner due to the restrictions of its hosts.

Iran just loosened the chains on its Al-Qaeda guests, allowing the skilled leaders to leave the country if necessary to help revitalize the terrorist group. At least five top Al-Qaeda officials who have been in Iran since 2003 on a relaxed form of house arrest have been given money and cars and more freedom. Terrorism expert Bruce Hoffman says that this is “one of their best hopes of reviving themselves.”

The 5 leaders are:

• Saif al-Adel, mentioned as a possible successor to Osama Bin Laden and a top operations chief.
• Abu al-Khayr al-Masri, a member of the Shura Council that was Bin Laden’s inner circle.
• Abdullah Ahmed Abdullah, an overall manager for the group.
• Abu Hafs al-Mauritani, an extremist cleric.
• Suleiman Abu Ghaith, a spokesman and fundraiser.

At just about the same time, Syria released a top Al-Qaeda leader, Abu Musab al-Suri and his senior aide, Abu Khalid. Al-Suri led Al-Qaeda terrorist operations in Europe, specifically the 2005 London bombings and the 2004 Madrid bombings.

The news of these releases reminded me of something that Ayatollah Khamenei said on February 3 at a prayer service. He said that Iran would “support and help any nations, any groups fighting against the Zionist regime across the world, and we are not afraid of declaring this.”

This sentence may or may not be directly connected to Iran’s decision to give more freedom to these Al-Qaeda leaders, but it is reflective of the overall attitude of the Iranian regime. It can condemn groups it has theological and political disagreements with but if they have common enemies, it doesn’t matter to Iran. They are worthy of support.

This line in his speech was overshadowed by his remark that Israel is a “cancerous tumor” that “will definitely be cut off” (a line that the New York Times forgot to mention in its coverage of his speech).

The U.N. Special Tribunal investigating the murder of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri has indicted four members of Hezbollah. In August, a clash along the Israeli-Lebanese border followed news that the indictments were coming. If that is how Hezbollah reacted to the reports of the indictments, then Israel must prepare for an even stronger reaction now that the indictments have actually been issued.

The Special Tribunal seeks the arrest of four members of Hezbollah, including Mustafa Badreddine, the brother-in-law of Imad Mughniyah, the group’s operational commander who was killed in 2008. Additional indictments may follow, including non-Lebanese nationals. It has been reported that the investigators have evidence that Syrian intelligence was involved, as well as the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps acting on orders of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Click here to read the rest of my FPM article.

Sunday’s Nakba Day was marked with bloodshed. At least fifteen people werekilled when Palestinian demonstrators clashed with the Israeli military on Israel’s borders with Syria, Lebanon and the Hamas-controlled Gaza Strip. The Iranian and Syrian regimes chose to use this holiday to whip up the region into anti-Israeli fervor, hoping to steer the Arab Spring in a direction away from them and towards their enemies.

Israel also had to face clashes in the West Bank and East Jerusalem in addition to the violence on its borders. A 22-year old Arab-Israeli also drove a truck into vehicles and civilians in Tel Aviv, killing one person and injuring 17. The attacker claims his vehicle had problems with the brakes, but witnesses are certain it was deliberate. One says he yelled, “Allahu akbar” and “death to Jews” during the attack.

“The leaders of these violent demonstrations, their struggle is not over the 1967 borders but over the very existence of Israel, which they describe as a catastrophe that must be resolved,” said Prime Minister Netanyahu. He defended the Israeli military, saying “we are determined to defend our borders.”

An estimated 1,000 people ran up to the Israeli-Syrian border and 300 actually breached it. The Syrian border guards did not stop them. Those who crossed into Israel have all been returned except those detained for questioning. The Israeli government is accusing Syria of trying to deflect attention away from its violent suppression of anti-government protests. The U.S. agrees, and the White House spokesman accused Syria of “inciting” the clash at the Golan Heights.

Click here to read the rest of my FPM article.

The Syrian government has long used Islamists to justify its rule by making the Assad regime look acceptable while doing its best to hide the existence of its secular opponents from the world. The Syrian government has sponsored Islamic extremists to the hilt (including al-Qaeda), while casting itself as the barrier to stop their ascent. Now, the regime is employing the same trick to frighten its citizens and deter the West from challenging it.

Riad al-Turk, a secular democratic opposition leader, says Assad’s political strategy includes “using the threat of the Islamists taking over and arguing that our people are not yet qualified to practice democracy.”

As soon as the uprising began gathering steam, one of Assad’s advisors immediately blamed it on Muslim Brotherhood theologian Yousef al-Qaradawi. The first casino was closed and the ban on teachers wearing niqabs and burqa was rescinded, helping Assad to frame the struggle as one between Islamism and secularism. When it released 270 political prisoners, all but 14 were Islamists. The regime also agreed to allow for the forming of a “moderate Islamist party loyal to the regime” under the leadership of Ayman Abdel Nour, a close personal friend of Assad. He was also told to create an Islamist satellite station. The regime wants to co-opt its Islamist opponents while undermining the secularists.

Click here to read the rest of my PJM article.

The February 2006 riots following the publication of cartoons mocking the Prophet Mohammed in a Danish newspaper killed over 100 people and showed the West the danger of offending Muslim sensibilities. New documents obtained by WikiLeaks now show that the Syrian government was actively stoking these flames as a way of frightening its enemies, winning its own credibility in the Muslim world and discouraging the West from promoting democracy in the Middle East.

It was obvious from the beginning that terrorist-sponsoring regimes were trying to promote the outrage. Angry crowds formed in Lebanon, Iran, Gaza City and Damascus that attacked the Danish and Norwegian embassies and burned European flags. As Fox News reported at the time, “few believe the protestors could have pulled off such a brazen act without tacit government consent.” Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said, “Iran and Syria have gone out of their way to inflame sentiments and to use this to their own purposes, and the world ought to call them on it.” Diplomatic cables obtained by WikiLeaks now reveal that the riots were more of an instigated event than previously acknowledged and was not a spontaneous outburst of Muslim outrage around the world.

Click here for the rest of my FPM article.

President Obama is sending Ambassador Robert Ford to Syria in a recess appointment, avoiding a political fight in Congress over his confirmation. This effort to “engage” the Baathist regime is likely to make Bashar Assad laugh as the U.S. pursues a futile effort to draw Syria away from Iran.

A U.S.-based democratic opposition group called the Reform Party of Syria is criticizing the move, especially due to its timing. The appointment comes only days after Bashar Assad met with a brutal terrorist named Samir Kuntar in his Presidential Palace. Kuntar used to be a member of the Palestine Liberation Front and has been convicted of killing innocent Israelis, including murdering a four-year old girl by smashing her skull with a rock. In November 2008, Assad presented Kuntar with Syria’s highest award after he was released from an Israeli prison as part of a prisoner exchange deal with Hezbollah.

Click here to read the rest of my FPM article.

Wow. If Ken Timmerman’s sources are correct, the U.N. Special Tribunal on the assassination of Rafiq Hariri will conclude that Ayatollah Khamenei ordered the murder and outsourced it to the Revolutionary Guards and Hezbollah, specifically Imad Mugniyeh and Mustapha Badr al-Dine, his brother-in-law.

The sources told Timmerman that Syrian President Assad and Assef Shawkat, his military-intelligence chief, were also involved, as the 2005 Mehlis report originally concluded. Read his whole article here for more details implicating Hezbollah.

Syria, Hezbollah, Iran and others will obviously deny the allegations and blame it on Israel (as they already have). It will be interesting to see how Saad Hariri plays this—whether he’ll withdraw Lebanon’s support for the tribunal and blame Israel out of survival, or if he’ll hang tough. And if you had any doubts about where Turkey now stands geopolitically, Prime Minister Erdogan has already proclaimed Hezbollah’s innocence.

One November 17, 2006 file released by WikiLeaks says that Al-Qaeda is introducing new suicide bombing technology that had “surfaced” in Iran and Syria. This included a new type of vest with remote cameras to record the attack with.

“Al-Qaeda remains the strongest organisation among the insurgent groups in Iraq and directs the majority of attacks that take place in Iraq,” says the assessment. “Instructors at the Islamic Jihad Center in Tehran are teaching a new tactic for SVIED (Suicide Vest Improvised Explosive Device) deployment.”

However, there is no way to verify the single report. As the Telegraph notes, “there are no reports of camera-equipped suicide vests being found.” And wouldn’t the camera get destroyed in the blast? It’s possible that the terrorists could be recording the footage as it is received from the camera but I’d wait for more verification before trusting in this single report.

Debka is reporting that Iran and Syria have decided to rip Lebanon apart first over the Hariri tribunal and then to confront Israel.

The presidents of Iran and Syria agreed in Tehran Saturday, Oct. 2, to support a Hizballah military takeover of Lebanon’s power centers, including the capital Beirut, right after Mahmoud Ahmadinejad ends his controversial two-day visit to the country on October 13-14. Ahmadinejad and Assad also decided to continue to harass Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri by de-legitimization of his government, intimidation and humiliation to force him to dissolve the Special Tribunal for Lebanon-STL which has brought charges against Hizballlah officials for the murder of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri in 2005. If this campaign disables the Hariri government, so much they better, because then Hizballah will be able to walk in and set up a transitional administration together with it allies, the Druze leader Walid Jumblatt and the Christian ex-general Michel Aoun. This administration will rule the regions dominated by Hizballah gunmen and proclaim its legality as a viable alternative to the failed Hariri government.
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To ward off the threat Hariri traveled to Riyadh and asked Saudi rulers for help – firstly, to block off the Iranian-Syrian conspiracy against his government and secondly, for money to buy arms for Lebanese Sunni and Christian militias to defend their fiefdoms against takeover by the Hizballah. Hariri is planning an emergency government session to discuss the crisis. At the same time, his energy minister Gebran Bassil, while visiting Tehran was told by Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki: Stability and unity in Lebanon would foil the plots of enemies.”(Edited for space.)

Please read the entire article for more important information.

Analysis. And again Syria becomes the de facto ruler of Lebanon.

Debka is reporting that Hezbollah has mobilized to prevent a Lebanese general officer form being served with an arrest warrant in connection with the death of Rafik Hariri five years ago.

Read the rest of this entry »

Debka is reporting that Hezballah forces are attacking US forces in Iraq at the behest of Iran and Syria.

Debkafile’s military sources report increased Hizballah involvement in actions to terrorize, subvert and destabilize Iraq. A US intelligence source told Debkafile’s Iraq and counter-terror sources Monday Sept. 6: “Hizballah is striking US targets in Iraq as sub-contractor for Iran and Syria.” According to the Sunday Times of Sept. 5, Iranian “firms” in Kabul are shelling out $1,000 to Taliban for every American soldier they kill in Afghanistan. These developments make nonsense of the dire predictions heard from some American military experts that an Israeli strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities would unleash a wave of anti-US terror in Iraq and Afghanistan. It is happening anyway without Israel lifting a finger against Iran or its aggressive allies.
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Debkafile’s military sources report that Hizballah’s increased involvement in actions to terrorize, subvert and destabilize Iraq on behalf of Syria and Iran is their first practical step for reviving the Eastern Front which threatened Israel in the days of Saddam Hussein. In its contemporary re incarnation, the Eastern Front would be orchestrated from Tehran and link up with the armed-to-the-teeth Northern Front composed of Iran’s cohorts, Hizballah, Syria and the Palestinian rejectionists.

Please read the entire article for more important information.

Analysis. However, Iraq does not have a common border with Israel. Therefore, any attack from an “Eastern Front” is an attack from Jordanian territory. So far there have been no public reports that I have seen detailing any problems in Jordan with “rejectionist” forces. Jordan has a problem with fundamentalists along its border with Saudi Arabia. So far this has been contained. Since 2000, there have only been two major events in Jordan that I remember. The first was the 2000 sarin gas attack supposedly sponsored by El Queda with the assistance of Syria. There was also a terrorist attack on a wedding in one of the major Amman hotels several years back. Somewhere in the near future we may see attempts to assassinate King Abdullah II and destabilize Jordan directed from Damascus. This we cannot afford.

As mentioned in the article, Iran wants control of the Shiite shrines in an-Najaf and Karbala … especially Karbala. Iran does not want a sunni in control of the government. But an Arab shiite in control in Baghdad might not be any better. Arabs don’t like Persians. Iran wants to control the southern Iraqi oil fields for the increased leverage on the World’s oil supply and for the Iraqi refining capacity.

I believe I heard mentioned on “The Dark Secret Place” radio show yesterday that the Houthi rebels are active again. This would fall in line with the attacks yesterday on a joint Iraqi-American base near Baghdad. The Iraqis repelled the attack with fire support from the American forces. If Debka is correct, expect to see more of these. The Iranians must portray our withdrawal from Iraq as a defeat by the mujahadeen and not a voluntary withdrawal. Politically and religiously they cannot let the message go out that we actually weren’t there to conquer Iraq for “crusader forces”.

Expect the instability in the Middle East to increase after Friday Prayers this Friday. Ramadan ends that same day and the Eid al Fitr (Greater Eid) is that night. There just might be some interesting “celebrations” planned.

Debka is reporting that the United States has given Bashar Assad a stern warning to not allow terrorist groups operating out of Syria to commit terrorist acts designed to derail the Israel-Palestine peace conferences.

The Obama administration has sent Syrian president Bashar Assad a stern warning that he will be held personally accountable and face consequences if Israel and the Palestinian Authority are subjected to a terror campaign – whether by Hizballah or the Palestinian extremist groups based in Damascus, Debkafile reports from Washington. The warning went out Thursday, Sept. 2, as Israelis and Palestinians sat down to talk in Washington in the shadow of threats from extremists sheltering under Syria’s wing and after two attacks on the West Bank.

The caution was put in Assad’s hands in Damascus by Fredric Hof, adviser to US envoy George Mitchell as Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and PA Chairman Mahmoud Abbas met for the first time under the aegis of Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and support of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak and Jordan’s King Abdullah.

Please read the rest of the article for more infomration.

Analysis. A stern warning is nice. A stern warning with a four ship of F-18s “booming” Damascus would be a lot more impressive. History tells me that the peace talks have almost no chance of success. While Netanyahu has the ability to pretty much put a lid on his Eretz Ysrael (Greater Israel) crowd, Abbas has no ability to stifle Hamas and the other 12 “rejectionist” groups. I’m not even certain that he has all that much power over Fatah. There will not be an agreement because the people funding the rejectionists do not want it.

Between now and the next meeting September 14 at Sharm al-Sheikh, I would expect to see almost continuous terror attacks on Israel and maybe a few on Palestinians. Hamas has a significant presence in the West Bank. This latest tactic of using totally unknown outsiders to do the attacks makes it very difficult for even the Palestinian Authority security forces to stop them. Ramadan ends September 10.

Debka is reporting that Syria and Hezbollah have established a joint command structure. The current objective of this command structure is to sink the Israeli Navy.

Debkafile’s military sources disclose that Syria and the Lebanese Hizballah have set up a joint military command for sinking Israeli warships, and Hamas has brought all 13 Palestinian rejectionist organizations under one roof for a sustained bid to intensify terror operations against Israel. At a news conference in Gaza early Friday, Sept. 3 – shortly after the Washington talks were rated positive – a Hamas military arm spokesman announced the creation of a single command encompassing all 13 Palestinian rejectionist groups operating out of the Gaza Strip and Damascus for a concerted campaign of terror against Israel. In answer to a question, Abu Obeida said the new policy of expanded attacks may well rain missiles on Tel Aviv. “From now on, everything is open,” the Hamas spokesman said.

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Syrian President Bashar Assad and Hizballah leader Hassan Nasrallah decided to expand the secret military cooperation pact they recently concluded – to which no Israeli political or military leader has so far responded – to the Mediterranean Sea, where their operational and intelligence assets will together seek out and try and sink Israeli missile ships and submarines. To this end, they have earmarked marine units and their Iranian- and Russian-made shore-to-ship missile force – the largest of its kind in the world – as well as Syrian assault helicopters flown by crews trained to strike seaborne targets. The Hizballah marine unit was trained and equipped by Iranian Revolutionary Guards marine instructors. The Mediterranean coastal strip from Syrian Latakia in the north, running through the Lebanese ports of Tripoli, Sidon and Tyre and down south to the Gaza Strip, have been declared a joint sea front dedicated to attacking Israeli targets.

High-ranking Israeli military sources told DEBKA file Thursday night that while it was hard to imagine Syrian or Hizballah managing to hit Israeli submarines, they are quite capable of fomenting violence on the sea and attacking Israeli naval craft and bases. Their joint command means they are sharing intelligence on Israeli naval activity and monitoring the movements of vessels while still in Israeli territorial waters and before they take up stations opposite the Lebanese or Syrian coasts.(Edited for space.)

Please read the entire article fro more important information.

Analysis. To quote William Bendix as Riley in The Life of Riley “What a revoltin’ development this is”.  There is so much here it is difficult to know where to start.  I don’t believe Assad wants to risk his navy in a direct confrontation with the Israeli Navy and certainly not with whatever carrier group we have in the Sixth Fleet Area of Responsibility (AOR). For a list of Syrian Naval vessels go to Global Security here. I’m not impressed. What does impress me is the ability of Hezbollah, probably with the help if not the participation of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Qods Force, to badly damage an Israeli frigate during the 2006 Lebanon war.

Iran through Assad and the Qods Force personnel is responsible for the creation of this joint “rejectionist” command. It probably cost them a lot but for Iran it is worth it. All concerned must realize that attacking an Israeli ship will lead to almost immediate retaliation if not outright war. To cut to the chase, this is but another step in the Iranian plan to create the chaos required for the Hidden Imam to appear.