World Threats

China has decided to ramp up its criticism of the hermit kingdom after its recent belligerent moves. Not only has the People’s Republic recently criticized the Kim regime in an official newspaper, but it is now receiving a “special envoy” from the country. This comes after two days of North Korean missile tests.

he North’s official Korean Central News Agency said in a short dispatch Wednesday that the envoy was Choe Ryong Hae.

There were no other details. Choe is the North Korea military’s top political officer tasked with supervising the 1.2-million-strong force.

China is North Korea’s only major political and economic benefactor. Beijing has faced pressure from Washington to use its influence to push Pyongyang to abandon its nuclear ambitions.

From the People’s Daily Online, an official arm of the Chinese propaganda machine:

In short, we cannot simply ”abandon“ North Korea. No matter the nature of the regime in North Korea, China always has security interests in the Korean Peninsula. 
Beijing has already adjusted its policies toward North Korea. Targeting North Korea‘s unfriendly actions, which have threatened peace on the peninsula, China has issued warnings and punishments. The relationship between China and North Korea has reached its lowest point since 1953. 
Nevertheless, this does not mean that China wants to completely abandon North Korea.North Korea is not a satellite state of China. We cannot ”abandon“ it. China‘s punishment and sanctions on North Korea are aimed to maintain our own security interests. 

Wow. Not only did the Chinese provide political cover for the United States and our allies increasing our military presence on the troubled Peninsula and targeting the North Koreans strategically, but they all but threw their old friends in Pyongyang under the bus in this remarkably pointed article.

I’d be concerned if I happened to be in North Korean high command, because a military buildup or drills conducted by the United States or Seoul is normal every day life when your threatening both nations with thermonuclear obviation, but potential defection by your only protectorate state on the planet could mean continuous onslaught from the U.N. and even fewer precious resources, such as food, entering your land.

Things could be getting very interesting diplomatically on the Korean Peninsula as China’s untrustworthy policy towards Pyongyang intensifies with further deterioration of politics within the Kim Jong-Un regime.

Getting more belligerent every day:

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With tensions on the Korean peninsula heading towards “thermo-nuclear war” according to the despotic regime’s ironically named Asia-Pacific Peace Committee, the belligerents are warning all foreigners to evacuate South Korea immediately and they have even refused to guarantee the protection of embassies.

This comes as the North Korean’s are preparing for a mid-range missile test with nuclear capabilities and followed through with their war drum banging by refusing to send workers to a joint industrial complex, making vague threats against the United States and even suspending an emergency hotline with the South.

Neighboring Japan is not taking any chances with the mentally deranged regime, sending two of their newest warships to the Sea of Japan to shoot down any missiles originating from the North, and have also deployed three U.S. made Patriot anti-missile defenses in Tokyo to better protect their Capital from any threats.

And if the North Koreans attempt to fire a missile into the Pacific by way of crossing Japan, their military has orders to shoot down the projectile and will execute if the time comes, although few actually believe such an event will occur, but I believe playing it safe with North Korea is probably a good idea when nuclear devices are on the line.

What say you?

North Korea has stepped up its provocations with another belligerent act. As the United States has signalled that it will not directly provoke the North, the DRPK has loaded missiles that appear to be threatening Japan.

Communication intercepts in recent days also seem to show that Pyongyang might be planning to launch a mobile ballistic missile in the coming days or weeks, another U.S. official said.

Russia has been playing interference for many of the world’s worst regimes for years now. It seems like Vladimir Putin’s government may actually be afraid of something going wrong in Korea.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov warned of a “vicious circle” and told all sides to avoid unilateral action.

Let’s see if China applies pressure on the North to stop their saber rattling.

Not sure what this means:

BREAKING: North Korea says it ‘enters war’ with South Korea: KCNA
— Bloomberg News (@BloombergNews) March 29, 2013

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This sounds promising. The North has ratcheted up the pressure once again, this time cutting off the communications line between the two governments of Korea.

“Under the situation where a war may break out any moment, there is no need to keep north-south military communications,” the head of a North Korean delegation told the South by telephone Wednesday, according to the North’s state-run Korean Central News Agency.

The North linked the move to annual joint military exercises by South Korea and the United States, which it has cited in a string of threats against the two countries in recent weeks. Tougher sanctions approved by the U.N. Security Council have also fueled its anger.

Great

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North Korea launched its Unha-3 missile yesterday in defiance of its neighbors and the U.S., but it didn’t go as planned. The missile broke apart only minutes after takeoff. Now, Kim Jong-Un must do something to save face, guaranteeing that he won’t back down from carrying out a third nuclear test in the coming days.

North Korea’s adversaries loudly protested the planned missile launch. The regime claimed it was innocently launching a satellite, but the technology is almost exactly the same as what is needed for a long-range ballistic missile. It was obvious that North Korea was testing its ability to strike as far away as the continental U.S. and Australia. Japan and South Korea threatened to shoot it down if it entered their airspaces. The regime proudly granted the worldwide media permission to come see the rocket, prompting the U.S. government to caution journalists that they could be feeding into its propaganda.

The U.S. warned that it would torpedo a deal struck on February 29 where the North Koreans would permit inspections of its nuclear facilities, end its nuclear weapons programs and stop testing missiles. In return, the U.S. would provide 240,000 metric tons of food desperately needed by the starving population. American officials assured the public that the delivery would be tightly monitored to make sure that the aid wasn’t diverted to the regime.

Click here to read the rest of my FPM article.

The U.S. and North Korea announced yesterday that a breakthrough had been reached. North Korea will suspend its uranium enrichment program, stop testing nuclear weapons and long-range missiles and allow inspectors to check out its nuclear sites. In return, the U.S. will provide 240,000 metric tons of food aid annually. It sounds like a good deal, but will it help save a teetering regime with a human rights record comparable only to Nazi Germany and Stalinist Russia?

The major concern is that the food aid will be diverted to the regime and the military instead of its starving population and then violate its agreements.

“The destitute North Korean economy needs foreign aid to avoid collapse. North Korea follows a now clear cycle of ostentatiously dangerous conduct followed by a conciliatory gesture that brings its neighbors and the U.S. rushing to the negotiating table, bearing goodies,” writes Christian Whiton, a former deputy special envoy for human rights in North Korea.

Click here to read the rest of my FPM article.

As North Korea prepares for Kim Jong-Il’s state funeral, speculation is growing over how effectively the ruling coterie of family and senior military officials can continue sharing power with successor-son Kim Jong-un. All eyes will be on Wednesday’s ceremony for clues about the cohesion of this leadership group, which includes the state’s senior most general, Ri Yong-ho, and the late Kim Jon-Il’s brother-in-law, Jan Song-thaek.

Central to North Korea’s future will be the degree to which China can continue to undermine Korean reunification. With nearly $7 trillion dollars in mineral wealth on the line, Bejing is hardly expected to support a new leader that would aim to increase economic and political ties with other nations.

Significant uncertainties, however, remain as there are signs North Korea could seek warmer relations with the South and possibly allow increased foreign investment. This week, former South Korean first lady Lee Hee-ho and Hyundai Group chairwoman Hyun Jeong-eun were received as South Korean representatives by North Korean leader Kin Jong-un.

While it’s anybody’s guess what the current government has planned, strategic planning consultancy Wikistrat has forecast three potential scenarios for North Korea’s future:

Best case: Slow liberalization-by-committee.  In this scenario, either Kim Jong-un or his uncle Jang Song-Thaek open North Korea to special economic zones, north and south, that let in, respectively, Chinese and South Korean direct investment. Over the years, the two neighbors achieve trustee-like control over North Korea that leverages China and South Korea’s financial heft. Meanwhile, North Korea opens up its doors and relaxes its economic and political constraints upon the population.

Middle path: More of the same.  In this scenario, the North Korean military steps back just enough to let Kim Jong-un’s generation wipe out the Old Guard over time, using the pretext of “foreign aggression” to stage the usual purges. As Beijing signs off, Kim Jong-un can prove he’s got the old man’s guts, successfully grab the reins of power and salute the generals with a reasserted “military first” policy. This way, China retains North Korea as a thorny prod to the U.S., which is committed to strategically “pivoting” to East Asia.

Worst case: A Chinese-backed military dictatorship. If things get really bad, Beijing might simply extract all the mineral wealth it can before turning over the carcass of North Korea to South Korea and the Americans for the super-costly rehabilitation.

For more, read Wikistrat’s special report for Fareed Zakaria’s GPS blog, at CNN.com

On December 17, North Korean dictator Kim Jong-Il died. The state pressannounced that his youngest son, Kim Jong-Un, is the “great successor.” There’s a clear pattern where each step towards succession is accompanied with a provocation, reflecting the regime’s belief that its ills can be cured through conflict. At only 27 or 28 years old, Kim Jong-Un is out to prove himself, and the short-range missile test that followed his official takeover isn’t going to cut it.

Kim Jong-Un is largely a mystery. He wasn’t even formally mentioned in North Korea’s state press until October 2010. His age, mother and marital status aren’t even known. It is reported that British intelligence assess that he has an “explosive temper” and suffers from severe hypertension, giving little hope that his mental state is any better than his father’s.

In October 2010, he was given the rank of a four-star general, even though he has no military experience whatsoever. His young age, lack of experience and the decreasing support of the North Korean army and population make it difficult for Kim Jong-Un to ensure the stability of the regime. A cable published by Wikileaks reveals that the top national security advisor to the South Korean president believes the regime will collapse within 2 to 3 years after Kim Jong-Il’s death.

Click here to read the rest of my FPM article.

In less than 12 hours after the announcement of North Korean dictator Kim Jong Il’s death, the North has taken to provocative action. The communist state has launched a short range missile test, seemingly to ward off any action by South Korea or her allies.

This action is making an already tense situation even more so. Still, it’s a pretty clear sign of desperation.

A short-range missile test that North Korea conducted Monday – reported earlier by South Korean media – was not a surprise and is not of particular concern, Dempsey said. South Korean media have reported that South Korean government officials do not believe the test was related to Kim Jong Il’s death.