World Threats

From the People’s Daily Online, an official arm of the Chinese propaganda machine:

In short, we cannot simply ”abandon“ North Korea. No matter the nature of the regime in North Korea, China always has security interests in the Korean Peninsula. 
Beijing has already adjusted its policies toward North Korea. Targeting North Korea‘s unfriendly actions, which have threatened peace on the peninsula, China has issued warnings and punishments. The relationship between China and North Korea has reached its lowest point since 1953. 
Nevertheless, this does not mean that China wants to completely abandon North Korea.North Korea is not a satellite state of China. We cannot ”abandon“ it. China‘s punishment and sanctions on North Korea are aimed to maintain our own security interests. 

Wow. Not only did the Chinese provide political cover for the United States and our allies increasing our military presence on the troubled Peninsula and targeting the North Koreans strategically, but they all but threw their old friends in Pyongyang under the bus in this remarkably pointed article.

I’d be concerned if I happened to be in North Korean high command, because a military buildup or drills conducted by the United States or Seoul is normal every day life when your threatening both nations with thermonuclear obviation, but potential defection by your only protectorate state on the planet could mean continuous onslaught from the U.N. and even fewer precious resources, such as food, entering your land.

Things could be getting very interesting diplomatically on the Korean Peninsula as China’s untrustworthy policy towards Pyongyang intensifies with further deterioration of politics within the Kim Jong-Un regime.

There is good news for Chinese activists striving for democracy, the country’s oppressed religious minorities and those fearful of Communist China’s rise. The number of anti-government protests is rising and top experts expect the arrival of a democratic China, with one, Gordon Chang, evenpredicting the fall of the ruling Communist Party this year.

The signs of a forthcoming Chinese Spring began surfacing immediately after the Arab Spring began in Tunisia early last year. Over 100 activists were arrested or put on house arrest in a single sweep. Security was out in force and a huge amount of text messages and websites were blocked. Tunisia’s Jasmine Revolution made the government so anxious that it even blocked the word “jasmine” from being searched on social networking websites. Hundreds still assembled in Beijing, Shanghai and elsewhere to peacefully express their desire for change.

In July, there were riots in Guizhou Province after a peddler with only one leg was killed, allegedly by government personnel. The incident brought attention to the unrest in the province that locals said is common but unreported. One resident wrote online, “In truth, China experiences riots worse than those in England every single week.”

Click here to read the rest of my article for the Institute on Religion & Democracy.

As North Korea prepares for Kim Jong-Il’s state funeral, speculation is growing over how effectively the ruling coterie of family and senior military officials can continue sharing power with successor-son Kim Jong-un. All eyes will be on Wednesday’s ceremony for clues about the cohesion of this leadership group, which includes the state’s senior most general, Ri Yong-ho, and the late Kim Jon-Il’s brother-in-law, Jan Song-thaek.

Central to North Korea’s future will be the degree to which China can continue to undermine Korean reunification. With nearly $7 trillion dollars in mineral wealth on the line, Bejing is hardly expected to support a new leader that would aim to increase economic and political ties with other nations.

Significant uncertainties, however, remain as there are signs North Korea could seek warmer relations with the South and possibly allow increased foreign investment. This week, former South Korean first lady Lee Hee-ho and Hyundai Group chairwoman Hyun Jeong-eun were received as South Korean representatives by North Korean leader Kin Jong-un.

While it’s anybody’s guess what the current government has planned, strategic planning consultancy Wikistrat has forecast three potential scenarios for North Korea’s future:

Best case: Slow liberalization-by-committee.  In this scenario, either Kim Jong-un or his uncle Jang Song-Thaek open North Korea to special economic zones, north and south, that let in, respectively, Chinese and South Korean direct investment. Over the years, the two neighbors achieve trustee-like control over North Korea that leverages China and South Korea’s financial heft. Meanwhile, North Korea opens up its doors and relaxes its economic and political constraints upon the population.

Middle path: More of the same.  In this scenario, the North Korean military steps back just enough to let Kim Jong-un’s generation wipe out the Old Guard over time, using the pretext of “foreign aggression” to stage the usual purges. As Beijing signs off, Kim Jong-un can prove he’s got the old man’s guts, successfully grab the reins of power and salute the generals with a reasserted “military first” policy. This way, China retains North Korea as a thorny prod to the U.S., which is committed to strategically “pivoting” to East Asia.

Worst case: A Chinese-backed military dictatorship. If things get really bad, Beijing might simply extract all the mineral wealth it can before turning over the carcass of North Korea to South Korea and the Americans for the super-costly rehabilitation.

For more, read Wikistrat’s special report for Fareed Zakaria’s GPS blog, at CNN.com

The CIA-based Open Source Center (OSC) has uncovered a disturbing link between China’s largest telecommunications company, Huawei, and Beijing’s intelligence service.  The high-tech giant is located in China’s Guangdong Province and has reportedly received nearly a quarter of a billion dollars from the Chinese government.

Though the US government continues to view Huawei as a risk and has already blocked the company from converging into the US market, three times, this has not stopped Huawei’s lobbying efforts.

In addition to the link to Chinese intel, Huawei may also be cooperating with the Chinese military.  The OSC also reports that Huawei has been active in a global campaign of large proportions to acquire classified and economic intelligence from government and private-sector computer networks.

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The Jasmine Revolution and its aftereffects are usually thought of as a regional phenomenon confined to the Middle East but such a picture is incomplete. Barely noticed clashes have erupted in North Korea, calls for revolution are been voiced in Vietnam and the Chinese government is scrambling to stop protests that have been planned for every Sunday.

The North Korean government had good reason to be worried and set up a special force once the Jasmine Revolution began. For the first time, its population expressed outrage at the government’s currency reform plans in November 2009. The backlash was enough to force the policy to be dropped. An apology was even made and a top official was executed. Over half of the population is now reading foreign news and an underground network circulatesinformation in and out of North Korea. The succession process makes the regime more nervous, resulting in military provocations and political purges.

Trouble began for the regime on February 14 after it failed to deliver promised goods in the days leading up to Kim Jong-Il’s birthday.  Dozens of people in North Pyongan Province demanded electricity and food. On February 18 in Sinuiju, the security forces had a confrontation with traders at the market, resulting in an assault on one trader to the point where he was unconscious. The family members of the victim protested and were quickly joined by other traders, resulting in the deployment of more soldiers and police. A source to one newspaper reported that “hundreds” were involved in the clashes. The true number is unknown but the clashes are an unprecedented and important development in the Hermit Kingdom.

Click here to read the rest of my FPM article.

This may not seem too outstanding at first glance. After all, both Japan and South Korea are currently threatened by North Korea. The North has nuclear weapons and neither of these other two powers do. It would appear only natural for the former rivals to have closer cooperation.

However, it should rather seem that Japan is looking more in terms of long-term security, not to meet the North Korea threat. Japan has been reorganizing its military and its center-left government, after criticizing the US and calling for its withdrawal from Okinawa, has actually pushed for closer defense ties.

Maehara told South Korean media that the reclusive communist state’s armed provocations present a “threat to stability and peace” in the entire region.

“We hope to conclude an alliance with South Korea to ensure security,” he said.

All of this points in the same direction– that Japan is concerned about the long-term growth of China. A lot has been made over China’s rise as both an economic and military power, and Japan must see it more clearly than us across the Pacific. China is building a great naval capability– preparing to launch two aircraft carriers and developing a “carrier-killer” missile that could threaten US interests in the Pacific and Indian Oceans.

Japan, Vietnam, South Korea, and Taiwan all have something to fear in the new rise of China and its potential for hegemonic claims. The key to all of their concerns could lie in the United States– or with India.

The Chosun Ilbo English language edition is carrying the PRC’s response to North Korea’s shelling of YP Do.

The Chinese government on Tuesday avoided direct comment on North Korea’s artillery attack on the South Korean island of Yeonpyeong and instead called on Seoul to do more for peace and urged a resumption of six-party nuclear talks. It also had no comment on North Korea’s uranium enrichment program. Asked in a press briefing about China’s position on the North’s unveiling of the uranium facility, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Hong Lei said China has “taken note of related reports.” He added Beijing’s consistent policy is to realize denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula through dialogue. He urged resumption of the six-party talks as soon as possible. “It is necessary to properly handle concerns of each country through dialogue within the framework of the six-party talks,” he said. Commenting on the artillery attack, he said Beijing is “concerned” but added, “The real situation needs to be confirmed.”

Please read the entire article for more information.

Analysis. Far be it for the PRC to be helpful this time any more than it was for the Cheonan incident. Until Beijing decides that it has had enough of the antics of the Kim family, we are pretty much stuck unless we want to up the ante with some raw power. At the moment I am strongly in favor of the raw power. It is becoming obvious that ignoring bad behavior and rewarding good behavior is not working here. Nor can it work when the current Kim can run to Beijing for protection. It is like the school bully who, when the other students have had enough, calls on his big brother to save his sorry ass. We must convince Kim’s “big brother” that a serious spanking and direct orders to get along with the neighbors is in order.

As for Seoul doing more for peace, translate that as you do whatever is necessary to kowtow to Pyongyang. You, South Korea, keep Kim happy. Then you won’t have any problems. Better yet, sign a peace treaty that guarantees the existence of the North under the Kim family.

We should all remember that unfinished wars have a bad habit of asking to be finished at the worst possible times. For war to have meaning, it must end with a clear winner and a clear loser.

Several sources are reporting that the People’s Republic of China has intercepted large amounts of Internet traffic. National Defense Magazine is reporting that this interception occurred on April 8, 2010 and lasted for approximately 18 minutes.

This massive redirection of data has received scant attention in the mainstream media because the mechanics of how the hijacking was carried out and the implications of the incident are difficult for those outside the cybersecurity community to grasp, said a top security expert at McAfee, the world’s largest dedicated Internet security company.

In short, the Chinese could have carried out eavesdropping on unprotected communications — including emails and instant messaging — manipulated data passing through their country or decrypted messages, Dmitri Alperovitch, vice president of threat research at McAfee said.

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Update: The Pentagon says it was an aircraft contrail, probably from an airliner.

There has been a lot of controversy over exactly what the helicopter cameraman photographed. It was not contrails from an airliner. It was not a contrail from a single-engined or centerline thrust dual-engine aircraft. Here’s why.

Contrails are composed of ice crystals formed from the water in the jet exhaust. These crystals require specific temperatures to form. They form in a narrow band usually about 6000 feet thick and starting at about 27,000 feet in the winter. Contrails can vary in thickness and persistence but they are not heavy and tend to disperse in the horizontal if there is any wind present. This cloud was much thicker than normal contrails and it dispersed very little.

It is also unlikely that an airplane was present. The airspace where the launch occurred appears to be an an area called W-289. This is what we call a Warning Area. W-289 is only one of several Warning Areas located off the Southern California coast. It is controlled by the naval station at Point Mugu and goes from the surface to unlimited. This is an area used by Pt. Mugu for various aerial weapons testing including things like air-to-air missiles. Civilian aircraft flying through this area, such as airliners, are under the positive control of Los Angeles Air Route Traffic Control Center. Airliners flying from San Diego to Los Angeles area airports do not generally go into this area.

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The Financial Times is reporting that the People’s Republic of China has rebuffed America’s efforts to mediate the Senkaku Islands dispute with Japan.

China has rebuffed a US proposal to act as a mediator between Beijing and Tokyo over disputed islands in the east China Sea, on Tuesday describing the US approach to the issue as “very wrong”. Ma Zhaoxu, a spokesman at the Chinese foreign ministry, said that the dispute should be handled by Japan and China. He also denounced US statements that the islands, which the Chinese call the Diaoyu and the Japanese the Senkakus, were covered by US defense agreements with Japan. “The US side has repeatedly claimed that the US-Japan security treaty applies to the Diaoyu islands. This is very wrong. The US side should immediately correct this erroneous position,” Mr Ma said in a statement on the ministry’s website.

Please read the entire article for more information.

Analysis. Translation: We are (the People’s Republic of) China. We will take what we believe is, or ever was, ours.

Yahoo! is reporting that the PRC recruited an American to spy for them.

A Michigan man pleaded guilty Friday to accepting $70,000 from Chinese spies as he attempted to secure jobs with the CIA and U.S. Foreign Service that would have allowed him to expose U.S. government secrets. Glenn D. Shriver, 28, of Grand Rapids, Mich., acknowledged Friday in U.S. District Court that he sought the jobs with the intent of selling classified information to Beijing. He pleaded guilty to a single count of conspiring to provide national defense information to Chinese intelligence officers. Under a plea agreement, prosecutors and defense attorneys agreed to recommend a four-year prison term that a judge is required to impose at sentencing set for Jan. 21.

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The Chosen Ilbo is reporting on a South China Morning Post story that the PRC may have built a stealth submarine.

China’s neighbors are worried that the People’s Republic may already have produced a stealth submarine, the South China Morning Post in Hong Kong reported Sunday.

Three weeks ago, photos of a new submarine built at a Chinese naval shipyard in Wuhan failed to draw much attention when they were posted on several websites. But that changed last week when the China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation disclosed that the Wuhan shipyard had built a new submarine, as well as more details of the craft. … “Naval officials in the region say encounters between submarines are increasing. Such encounters will become more frequent as countries such as Japan, Korea, Australia, Vietnam and Indonesia expand and update their submarine fleets in the face of China’s rising military strength. The PLA will soon have more submarines than the United States Navy,” the daily added. (Emphasis mine.)

Please read the entire article for more important information.

Analysis.It would appear that the PRC does not agree with the Pentagon’s analysis that all wars in the future will be low intensity conflict. They are practicing to shoot down our F-22 Raptors of which we only have 187. They are building missile systems specifically aimed at destroying our carriers. They are building submarines that are very, very quiet and apparently lots of them.

We here in the West, especially in the United States, tend to forget our history, even our recent history. We forget that Germany started World War Two with only 57 submarines and exactly how much damage they caused until the appearance of the escort carrier. The PRC recognizes that they will be dependent on Sea Lines of Communication for the foreseeable future. They are also well aware of who controls those lines and where the choke points are. A large submarine fleet is an effective tool to deny access to areas that an enemy doesn’t want you in like the Taiwan Straits.

Perhaps we should rethink our analysis of the size and scope of future conflicts.

Joongang Ilbo is reporting that hackers from the People’s Republic of China have targeted South Korean diplomatic and security services computers.

Hackers from China have successfully stolen confidential information from foreign service and security officials through e-mails that purport to be from the Blue House or diplomats abroad, a report from the National Intelligence Service showed. … Grand National Party Representative Lee Jung-hyun, a member of the legislature’s National Defense Commission, provided the JoongAng Ilbo on Thursday with intelligence agency warnings sent to government offices earlier this year.

According to the documents, the National Intelligence Service warned that malicious e-mails were sent to foreign affairs and security public servants and diplomats abroad. The NIS said the e-mails, which contained a type of malware capable of stealing data from personal computers and mobile data storage devices, were sent repeatedly, and it warned civil servants to step up their security. The e-mails were disguised to appear to be coming from diplomats and Blue House officials.

The e-mails contained attachments titled “Briefing on [U.S.-Korea expert Jack] Pritchard’s North Korea visit,” “2010 Korean Peninsula affairs outlook” and “Itinerary of Kim Jong-il’s trip to China.”

Please read the entire article for additional information.

Analysis. Criminals aren’t the only hackers.

The Chosun Ilbo is reporting that the People’s Liberation Army is attempting to work out a method of killing F-22 Raptors.

The Chinese People’s Liberation Army recently staged an intercept exercise targeting the U.S.’ latest stealth fighter jet, the F-22 Raptor, Hong Kong’s Apple Daily reported Thursday.

Japanese media on Oct. 3 reported that the Japanese and U.S. militaries will carry out a joint exercise to practice recapturing the disputed Senkaku or Diaoyutai Islands in November, in case the Chinese capture them in a surprise attack. It said the U.S. nuclear-powered aircraft carrier George Washington and F-22 Raptors will take part in the exercise.

On Oct. 8, five days after the report, a Chinese Air Force brigade in the Chengdu military district practiced firing a Hong Qi No. 9 missile, China’s newest ground-to-air missile, to hit a target assumed to be an F-22, the Apple Daily said.

Please read the entire article for more information.

Analysis. The Australian website ausairpower.net has an excellent technical report on the Hong Qi 9 SAM. This is not a SAM to be disregarded as “made in China”. It apparently uses a lot of Russian S-300 technology with alterations for PRC circumstances. There is an anti-radiation version that is specifically designed to shoot down AWACS, stand-off jamming aircraft and other radiating aircraft.

The theory behind the design of “stealth” aircraft is to minimize the amount of radar energy reflected back to the transmitting site. Depending upon how the PLA links these units, it is possible that energy transmitted from one site could be received by other sites and fed into a central command post. By measuring the angle of reception from several different sites it is possible to triangulate the position of the “stealth” aircraft. This would be a very complicated system requiring a lot of high grade electronics and computing power.

Regardless of whether or not the Hong Qi 9 can kill a Raptor, this is another “in your face” response to an exercise that challenges the PRC’s concept of what it owns and what others do not. It is of the same category as the PLA Navy’s live fire exercises in the Yellow Sea prior to the time the USS George Washington was scheduled to participate in anti-submarine drills in the Yellow Sea. Not a good sign of things to come.

“When you are skinning your customers, you should leave some skin on to heal, so that you can skin them again.” Nikita Sergevitch Khruschev.

A company called Sovereign Advisers has filed an antitrust and RICO complaint against the three major securities rating agencies, several large banks and their associated law offices. The complaint can be found here. I will also be posting the complaint and the exhibits on my personal website at www.kwamt.com. Why is this important from a national security standpoint? There is another quote that I was looking for also by a Russian Marxist that talks about capitalists selling the Communists the rope that would be used to hang them. This complaint is prime example of just that theory. This from the introduction of the complaint and the Prayer for Relief.

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