World Threats

Yemen’s dictator Ali Abdullah Saleh is still refusing to step down. According to published reports, he flirted with the idea of no longer leading the Middle Eastern country. However, he has decided that it was in the country’s ‘best interest’ to stick around until the end of the year.

Now, he’s still pushing the same idea, but in a different capacity. Call it a copy of Egyptian dictator Hosni Mubarak’s plan. Mubarak ‘handed over’ control to his vice president, Omar Suleiman, in an attempt to stay in power. However, protests continued, leading to his stepping down several days later. Saleh has a similar ploy.

Ali Abdullah Saleh made his offer at a meeting on Tuesday night with Mohammed al-Yadoumi, head of the Islamist Islah party. It was the first time Saleh had dealt with Islah, once a partner in his government, an opposition spokesmen said.

“The opposition could pick a head of government of its own choosing and there would be parliamentary elections by the end of the year,” an opposition source said of Saleh’s offer.

To make matters worse, this plan would give undue influence to the Islamists. Saleh probably has about two weeks left unless he is willing to massacre the Yemeni people.

The documentary produced by Ahmadinejad’s office makes it clear that the Iranian regime sees itself as religiously-commanded to lead a united Arab coalition to destroy Israel in the near future. Interestingly, it said that the rise of the Muslim Brotherhood, though it is Sunni, is “in accordance with the Hadith.” The uprisings in the region are being seen as a green light for a new offensive to begin in the Middle East and Islamist forces are moving quickly to maximize their gains.

The immediate flashpoint in this new jihad is in Bahrain. The population is 70 percent Shiite but is ruled by a pro-American, Sunni Royal Family. Massive protests threatened to topple the regime that were responded to with deadly violence condemned by Iran. The Bahraini regime was forced to ask for intervention by the Gulf Cooperation Council and about 1,200 soldiers from Saudi Arabia and 800 from the United Arab Emirates came to its rescue. The Shiite opposition in Bahrain considers these forces to be an “occupation.” The leader of the hardline Haq opposition group flatly stated that the Saudi intervention gives the opposition “the right to appeal for help from Iran.” It is happy to oblige.

Hezbollah has offered support to the Shiite uprising in Bahrain and a website registered by the Iranian government is signing up volunteers to wage jihad against the GCC forces, including “martyrdom” operations that will be assigned via email. The website says that the fighters will be divinely guided by “the redeemer” who is behind the revolutions in Egypt, Tunisia and Egypt and willlead the war against Israel, the U.S. and the enemy Arab governments. It is not clear who this “redeemer” is, but it is further proof that the Iranian regime believes it is fulfilling the commandments of Allah. The website says that a total of 1,858 volunteers have signed up, 60 percent of which are from Iran and 18 percent are from Bahrain. This isn’t just talk. Qatar has seized two Iranian shipsnear Bahrain loaded with weapons.

Click here to read the rest of my latest FPM article.

From CAN:

A Libyan newspaper has reported on a September 2009 meeting between Nihad Awad, the executive-director of the Council on American-Islamic Relations and Libyan dictator Muammar Gadhafi where Awad asked for a donation, reports The Investigative Project on Terrorism.

Awad and two other top CAIR officials, spokesman Ibrahim Hooper and chairman Larry Shaw, met with Gadhafi after he addressed the United Nations in New York. Awad called him a “world Islamic popular leader” and complimented the dictator.

“[we] appreciate your efforts over the years, and wish also to extend your interest will extend to Muslims in America, God willing,” Awad said.

The CAIR leaders then asked Gadhafi to help pay for a plan to give 1 million Qurans to Americans, including public officials and for a donation to establish the Muslim Peace Foundation. Awad says that no donation was ever received and points out that CAIR condemned Gadhafi after he began killing civilians this year to try to put down a rebellion aimed at overthrowing him.

However, Gadhafi was known as being anti-American and anti-Semitic before this year’s civil war and his government was listed as a State Sponsor of Terrorism until 2007. His government was involved in various terrorist attacks against Westerners, including the bombing of a disco in Germany in April 1986 that killed two American soldiers and the bombing of Pan Am Flight 103 in 1988 that killed over 270 people, including nearly 190 Americans.

Gadhafi’s government also plotted to use Al-Qaeda members to kill Saudi King Abdullah following a public confrontation between the two men in March 2003. Officials from Gadhafi’s government contacted a Muslim-American leader named Abdurahman Alamoudi to ask him for help in finding terrorist operatives in Saudi Arabia to hire for the assassination. Alamoudi was arrested and the plot was foiled.

Arnaud de Borchgrave writes that former Saudi intelligence chief Prince Turki al-Faisal has just called for the Gulf Cooperation Council to form a united army and to begin “acquiring the nuclear might to face that of Iran.” Maybe I’m overreacting, but I don’t think he’s talking about nuclear energy.

There is a big debate in the U.S. about the wisdom of arming the Libyan rebels. Though we know for a fact that at least one rebel commander is tied to Al-Qaeda and there are reports of a Hezbollah presence, U.S. intelligence believes that Islamists are only a small part of the opposition.

It’s also leaked out to the press that President Obama has signed a presidential “finding” authorizing the CIA to assist the rebels. In related news, Qaddafi’s Foreign Minister, Musa Kusa, has defected to the U.K., making him the highest official to switch sides yet. Kusa has long been said to have had a productive relationship with the CIA and he is reported to have been instrumental in Qaddafi’s decision to give up his WMDs, which would explain why his assets haven’t been frozen.

One of the biggest arguments against intervention in Libya has been the financial cost. Wired Magazine raises the question of whether contractors should be used to support the rebels instead of taxpayer money. This is a highly controversial proposal because it raises images of independent companies acting as guns-for-hire around the globe, but with the U.S. in such debt, it should at least be discussed (along with proper regulations). The U.S. cannot afford to be isolationist and withdrawn from these conflicts, but it can’t financially afford significant involvement either.

Some significant developments happened today in Syria as well. There are estimates that up to 25 people have died in Latakia today. Click here for very graphic video of the clashes today.

According to the Reform Party of Syria, a Kurdish website “central to their cause” called Soparo is calling on Kurds to join in the uprising. If this happens, the situation will dramatically escalate. Think of how much trouble the Kurds, with only 10 percent of the population, have caused Assad in the past.

RPS also reports that the 18-member religious High Council of the Allawites has sent a delegation to the regime to express its dissatisfaction.  The organization warns that the Assad regime might try to instigate sectarian warfare in Latakia, a city of 700,000 (400,000 Sunnis and 300,000 Allawites).

Taliban militants have captured the Waygal district in Afghanistan’s Nuristan province, a recent Reuters report suggests. Mohammad Zarin, a spokesman for the provincial governor’s office confirmed the major development Tuesday, but did not comment on Taliban claims that they had also captured 12 Afghan policemen in the preceding gunfight.

Though government forces are preparing an immediate pushback, the move is likely to threaten the confidence of US officials who had announced just last week their plans to begin the hand over of military operations in several key regions of the country in July.

It also highlights a year of escalating clashes between Taliban insurgents and Afghan-led security forces that have slowly allowed the militants to spread out of their traditional strongholds in the south. Complicating this most recent development is the proximity of Waygal district to the failed boarder with Pakistan and the lawless safe havens that Taliban groups have long-furnished there.

Moving forward, both Nursitan and its neighbour Kunar province will continue to be places of strategic importance for Western backers of the regime in Kabul, who are likely hoping the Taliban’s latest move will follow in their tradition of seizing territories only to release them shortly after coalition security reinforcements arrive.

To read the official Reuters click here.

Bashar Assad is starting to seem an awful lot like Hosni Mubarak. He has sacked his government, an unmistakable sign of fear, and is promising vague, undefined reforms that will do nothing to satisfy the public. His speech to Syria, where he was expected to announce significant reforms and concessions including the lifting of the state of emergency, said a whole lot of nothing and will only enrage his population. Whenever Mubarak announced a “reform,” it fell far short of what his people demanded and only escalated the crisis. This is what will happen in Syria.

He claimed the uprising is a “big plot from outside,” a questioning of the integrity and intelligence of his opponents that they won’t look kindly upon. He did say that “We cannot say that everyone who went out is a conspirator. Let us be clear about that,” but that won’t suffice.

He said that “Deraa is in the heart of every Syrian” but made no apology for the use of force and won’t even admit that his security forces were involved (he maintains that “armed gangs” who stole government uniforms are responsible). Predictably, he said Deraa is a front line in the fight against Israel. This overused tactic will backfire, as it tells the Syrian people that Assad still doesn’t “get it.”

And here’s proof that it failed: Shortly after the speech, hundreds of protesters chanted “freedom” in Latakia and were fired upon by the army that has been sent there to stabilize the situation.

The biggest concerns about a post-Assad Syria is the strength of the Muslim Brotherhood and what the Allawite minority will do, which the regime comes from. The general estimate of the size of the Allawites is 10 to 13 percent of the population. The Washington Post puts it significantly lower at just 6 percent. Can a regime that represents only 6 to 13 percent of the population come back from the edge? I don’t think so.

From CAN:

Sky News reports that the U.S. is considering selling arms to rebels in Libya fighting the anti-American dictatorship of Muammar Gadhafi, but it has been revealed that at least one rebel commander has sympathy for Al-Qaeda and his fighters include jihadists who fought in Iraq. The U.S. began participating in a military intervention in Libya on March 19 to stop the government from massacring the rebels and killing civilians.

Abdel-Hakim al-Hasidi, a rebel commander, told an Italian newspaper that around 25 of his fighters previously fought Coalition forces in Iraq, reports The Telegraph. He also said he was arrested in Pakistan in 2002 after fighting U.S. forces in Afghanistan as a member of the Libyan Fighting Group, which is tied to Al-Qaeda.

“…members of al-Qaeda are also good Muslims and are fighting against the invader,” al-Hasidi said.

The revelation comes as the Los Angeles Times reports that U.S. intelligence has concluded that there is no organized presence of Al-Qaeda or other Islamic extremists among the Libyan rebels.

“We’re keeping an eye out for extremist activity in Libya, but we haven’t seen much, if any, to date,” a counter-terrorism official told the newspaper.

CNN.com also reported that the Muslim Brotherhood is seeking to become active in Libya in an article titled, “Energized Muslim Brotherhood in Libya Eyes a Prize.” Brotherhood officials have met with the Libyan rebels and are returning to the country, the news network said, though “there is little or no overt presence” because of the dictator’s suppression of his opponents.

Ryan Mauro, the Christian Action Network’s National Security Advisor, says that the rebels should be armed because “It’s better to help them remove Gadhafi from power than stick around protecting the rebels for a prolonged period of time like happened in Iraq after the Gulf War,” Mauro said.

He added that he believes the rebels are mostly secular and cannot be characterized as Islamists as a whole.

“We have to make clear to the rebels that our support will only come if weapons are not given to radical Islamic militants and an accounting process must be in place to verify this.”

The big news today is that the Syrian government resigned, which should give everyone some appreciation for just how panicked Bashar Assad really is. Aware that fear could encourage his opposition, his regime staged massive rallies in support of him but they don’t tell the whole story.

Al-Jazeera’s reporters have been prevented from visiting Deraa and Latakia in an attempt to focus attention on the pro-Assad rallies. According to the Reform Party of Syria, the regime ordered all workers at government-controlled offices and organizations to turn out. “In other words, of 22 million people in Syria, the real supporters of Assad can fit in one large square in Damascus,” an RPS email stated.

The rallies consist of three types of crowds, according to Farid Ghadry: The Rent-A-Crowd (those on the regime’s payroll), the Scare-A-Crowd (people forced into participating) and the Fool-A-Crowd, those who participated believing it was a pro-reform rally. Of the third group, “they are staunch opponents of Assad and believed, after Assad promised reforms on national TV, that real reforms and democratic reforms are forthcoming. So, they joined today’s demonstrations in support of reforms and not Assad,” he wrote.

Other news:

• The Washington Times reports that Ammar Abdulhamid, a Syrian dissident, says that the opposition does not want U.S. aid or the Obama Administration to take too hard of a line, fearing it would discredit the dissidents.

• Caroline Glick writes that Syria has a large missile and chemical weapons arsenal including Sarin and blister agents. She writes that the February 2009 issue of Jane’s Intelligence Review said that Syria began expanding its CW arsenal and building new Scud missile bays in 2005 after the reported arrival of Iraqi WMD. She suggests, among other things, that Israel arm the Kurds.

• There are those that argue that a post-Assad Syria will be worse. The Asia Times has an interesting analysis that says that the hoarding of food following price reductions through tax cuts sparked the uprising. The author concludes that a post-Assad Syria will be a “failed state.” Patrick Seale in Foreign Policy agrees, predicting sectarian warfare between the Allawites and Sunnis.

• A group of dissidents issued a joint declaration in Damascus in support of the creation of a democratic state where all are treated equally. In other words, regime change.

The West is rightly fretting over where the Arab revolutions will bring us, but there’s one we can be thankful for in Syria. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates had it right when hesaid that the Syrian military should follow the example of Egypt’s that “empowered a revolution.” Secretary of State Hillary Clinton had it wrong — amazingly wrong — when she said that members of “both parties who have gone to Syria in recent months have said that they believe he [Bashar Assad] is a reformer.”

Bashar Assad’s regime is anti-American to the core and is tied at the hip to Iran. It has supported elements of al-Qaeda; preaches radical Islam despite its secular governance; is a major backer of Hamas, Hezbollah and Palestinian Islamic Jihad; and has the blood of countless U.S. soldiers and Iraqison its hands. The Iraqi government even tried to build support for a UN tribunal to prosecute Syrian officials for destabilizing Iraq in 2009. You’d be hard-pressed to find an uprising more worthy of the West’s support, at least politically.

The only argument that exists to oppose U.S. support for the uprising is that it could benefit Islamists. After all, Hafez al-Assad had to carry out a massacre at Hama in 1982 to crush the Muslim Brotherhood. At the same time, it is unlikely that the Islamists will be the sole leaders of a post-Assad Syria. They will have to share power with secular democratic forces, and it must be remembered that Assad already vigorously supports the terrorist groups that, it is feared, an Islamist-governed Syria would.

Assad is well-aware of this fear and uses it to his advantage. For example, he did not arrest the late Abu Qaqa, an anti-American cleric who called for establishing Sharia law. While secular demonstrations for freedom were prohibited, Qaqa was allowed to hold anti-American rallies for Western consumption. His right-hand man believes he was a government agent, and his funeral was attended by Baathist officials. The goal of using Qaqa was two-fold: to have a front with which to connect with anti-American jihadists and to encourage the illusion that the only alternative to Assad is rule by Islamic extremists of the worst kind.

Click here to read the rest of my latest PJM article.

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The state of Oman has seen some scattered protests over the last several months. The neighbor of both Yemen and Saudi Arabia has seen several dozen people protest during the revolt against Hosni Mubarak.

Now the relatively rich nation has seen another wave of protests. However, just as before, the military has taken a prime role in dispersing those calling for the ouster of the current regime.

ONA state news agency said security forces arrested some “wanted people in Sohar” for “blocking roads and attacking security men”.

The spot had become central for Omani anti-corruption protests after one demonstrator was killed by security forces at a nearby police station at the end of February.

Around 300 demonstrators have since been gathering in the evenings at Earth roundabout, demanding jobs, better pay and an end to alleged corruption.

These protests were much smaller than those seen in Egypt, Tunisia, and elsewhere. It’s still unclear if they have any legs.

There has been more trouble for the Ba’athist dictatorship in Syria. In the wake of large protests accounting for thousands of people, there has now been some pushback from the government. One has been an outbreak of violence that has reportedly killed over 100 civilians.

Another track has been political. The dictator Assad, channeling Hosni Mubarak, has now sacked his entire cabinet. Whether this will actually stem the tide of protest is unclear, but unlikely.

There is also word of potentially larger changes, with Assad vowing to make a speech in the next day or so:

President Assad is expected to address the nation in the next 24 hours to announce he is lifting the emergency law and restrictions on civil liberty.

The president has appointed outgoing Prime Minister Muhammad Naji Otari as caretaker prime minister until a new government is appointed, the official Syrian news agency has said.

Hopefully this is the last act of a dying regime.

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The Iranian government has produced a bone-chilling documentary that claims that Ayatollah Khamenei, President Ahmadinejad, and Hassan Nasrallah are talked about in Islamic prophecy as leaders who will wage war to bring about the arrival of the Hidden Imam, which the film says is “very close” to happening.

Reza Kahlili, a former member of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards who spied for the CIA and authored A Time to Betray last year, procured the entire film and says it was created by close associates of Ahmadinejad and was shown to top clerics two weeks ago. His chief of staff, Esfandiar Rahim Mashaei, is said to have played a role in its creation. Kahlili allowed FrontPage to view a shortened version of the film over the weekend, which he says the Iranian regime intends to distribute to mosques and Islamic centers throughout the region with an Arabictranslation and is currently being shown to members of the Revolutionary Guardsand Basiji.

The purpose of the film is to make the case that Iran is prophetically destined to lead the war against Islam’s enemies, which is as a prelude to the appearance of the Hidden Imam, also called the Mahdi, who brings the final victory for Islam and reigns over the whole world. It uses current events to argue that “the final chapter has begun” and the Mahdi’s arrival is imminent. Most disturbingly, it teaches that Khamenei, Ahmadinejad and Nasrallah are the individuals prophesied to make this happen.

Click here to read the rest of my FPM article.

Note: Ryan Mauro has viewed the film and will have a blockbuster article about it tomorrow.

CBN is reporting that the Iranian government through the Bassiji has produced a film that declares that the Twelfth (Hidden) Imam, also known as the Mahdi, is coming soon.

New evidence has emerged that the Iranian government sees the current unrest in the Middle East as a signal that the Mahdi–or Islamic messiah–is about to appear.
CBN News has obtained a never-before-seen video produced by the Iranian regime that says all the signs are moving into place — and that Iran will soon help usher in the end times.
…
“Just a few weeks ago, Ahmadenijad’s office screened this movie with much excitement for the clerics,” Kahlili told CBN News. “The target audience is Muslims in the Middle East and around the world.”The video claims that Iran is destined to rise as a great power in the last days to help defeat America and Israel and usher in the return of the Mahdi. And it makes clear the Iranians believe that time is fast approaching. “The Hadith have clearly described the events and the various transformations of countries in the Middle East and also that of Iran in the age of the coming,” said a narrator, who went on to say that America’s invasion of Iraq was foretold by Islamic scripture–and that the Mahdi will one day soon rule the world from Iraq. (Edited for space.)

Please read the entire article for additional important information. Be sure to watch the embedded video.

Analysis. This ties in directly with the events in Bahrain. The failure of the Shiite rebellion (so far) to oust the Khalifa dynasty may have upset the Iranian time table but I doubt it. What may be a bigger problem for them would be the dethroning of the Assad family in Syria. It also explains the Iranian Navy flotilla landing at Latakia and off loading weapons for Hezbollah, Hamas and the other rejectionist groups in Gaza. They are filling up their War Reserve Material prior to an attack. This may also explain the Untied States’ hurry to off load the Libyan operations onto NATO. The Enterprise group is needed in the Arabian Sea. Absent the need for the Kearsarge to provide Search and Rescue support for Odyssey Dawn, it would also be on the way back to the Arabian Sea.

Depending upon what happens in Syria, I would expect that interesting events will be happening in Iraq. Keep an eye out for any reports that Muqtada al Sadr is back in Iraq. He appears to be the Iranian agent or messenger to the Shiite militias in Iraq. It will be the Shiite militias that will probably lead any revolution against the Maliki government. The reaction of the Iraqi Army is unknown at this point. It may split along sectarian lines. In case you have been wondering why we still have nine brigades in Iraq, this should answer your question. The nine brigades plus the heavy brigade in Kuwait constitute the bulk of a corps less corps level artillery and some service units. Most of those units will come form the United States and fall in on equipment prepositioned in the area.

The existence of this corps plus the air power available in the area is designed to keep Iranian troops from crossing the Shatt al-Arab and marching off to the Imam Hussein and Imam Ali mosques as well as conquering Kuwait and the Saudi oil fields just south of the Kuwait border. Whether the Mahdi appears or not, Iran cannot be allowed to control 40% of the World’s oil reserves.

Expect the violence in Bahrain to escalate. The usual starting time for such things is right after Friday prayers when the Shiite Imams have had a chance to do some serious rabble rousing. This will also be the time when the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Qods Force personnel will begin taking positions to “aid” the local Shiites in their rebellion. This is when it gets nasty. The Gulf cooperation Council (GCC) forces currently in Bahrain will use lethal force to keep the Khalifa dynasty in power. Bahrain must remain Sunni.