World Threats

The Baathist Syrian regime is facing its greatest internal challenge since Hafez al-Assad destroyed Hama in 1982 to put down a revolt by the Muslim Brotherhood. Bashar Assad’s violence against protesters has ignited further discontent and it shows no sign of dissipating. If the revolution in Syria succeeds, it will remove a state sponsor of terrorism and ally of Iran with the blood ofAmerican soldiers on its hands.

Up to 126 civilians have been killed by the Syrian security forces since the uprising began and the death toll continues to climb. The Assad regime had been one of the few that seemed stable in the wake of the Jasmine Revolution as a much-anticipated “Day of Rage” in February failed to materialize. The uprising had small beginnings as lonely voices calling for protests became louder and more numerous.

The turning point came on February 17, when about 1,500 spontaneouslydemonstrated in Damascus following the beating of a young man by security personnel. The speed with which the crowd grew was alarming to the regime, which quickly dispatched security personnel and government officials to the scene. The Interior Minister arrived and promised an investigation into the incident. On February 22, about 200 people held a sit-in near the Libyan embassy to express their anger with Muammar Qaddafi and 14 were arrested.

Click here to read the rest of my FPM article.

Asharq al Awsat is reporting that Qatar has seized an Iranian boat carrying weapons.

KUWAIT CITY (AFP) – Qatar, which has sea borders with Bahrain and Iran, has seized two Iranian boats in the Gulf carrying weapons, a Kuwaiti electronic newspaper reported on Sunday. The boats were intercepted off Al-Zubara coast, northeast of Qatar and close to the country’s territorial waters with Bahrain, Al-Aan said, citing sources it did not identify.

Please read the entire article for a little more information.

Analysis. To be expected. Probably more to follow and a lot of them will get through.

The Associated Press reports that “Islamic militants” have taken over a town named al-Husn, a strategic mountain home to a radio station and a presidential palace and a weapons factory in Yemen’s Abyan Province. These “Islamic militants” are almost certainly Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, as Abyan Province is one of their bases. The report says the police presence was reduced in the area to cope with the unrest elsewhere.

The AP says that suspected Al-Qaeda terrorists attacked a military post in Ubaida in the central part of Marib Province, another one of AQAP’s strongholds and 7 soldiers were killed. As I’ve previously written for FrontPage Magazine, the instability in Yemen benefits Al-Qaeda, the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in the north and the Muslim Brotherhood affiliate called Islah. The more secular democratic forces benefit as well, but the Islamists are the best positioned to fill the power vacuum and you can count on Al-Qaeda and the Houthis to fight for a relative level of autonomy.

The only good news from Al-Qaeda’s attacks is that the terrorist group has a habit of overreaching. The Yemeni population is mostly indifferent to Al-Qaeda’s presence in their country, with many viewing the group as an inflated or manufactured threat. If the group becomes too aggressive in attacking soldiers and forcing Sharia Law on residents, it will force the Yemenis to wake up to the threat in their midst. The best strategy for Al-Qaeda is to restrain its lust for blood and oppression and enjoy and non-violently expand its safe harbor, but that doesn’t seem to be in Al-Qaeda’s DNA.

The Syrian government says it will lift the state of emergency but is not saying when. As Al-Jazeera explains, the emergency laws permit the arrest of anyone deemed a threat to security, the dispersing of demonstrations, official control over the media and various measures that trample civil rights. Assad is planning a televised address to his country later today and 16 political prisoners including an activist from Deraa were released today.

The Reform Party of Syria says not to get excited over the lifting of the state of emergency because SANA says new laws called “Laws to Fight Terror” will be put in place to secure Assad’s rule.

The Syrian army entered Latakia today after at least a dozen people were killed yesterday, some of which were shot by snipers. About 3,000 people protested there.

I expect Assad to try to blame Islamist elements like Al-Qaeda and the Muslim Brotherhood for the uprising today. He said that “armed gangs” were responsible for the casualties and one of his advisors accused Muslim Brotherhood cleric Shiekh Yousef al-Qaradawi for inspiring the unrest with his Friday sermon.

The Israeli media is reporting that eyewitnesses are claiming that some of the thugs that attacked the protesters are speaking Farsi, indicating they are members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards. Some Syrian opposition outlets also claimed this.

The Reform Party of Syria says that the Syrian ambassador to India has resigned to protest the violence and four soldiers have gone missing in Hassakeh after refusing orders to open fire on protesters. There are rumors that Vice President Farouq al-Sharaa has been killed after his nephew denounced the regime on TV.

The Assad regime is clearly trembling and the deployment of soldiers to Latakia shows this is not an uprising limited to one geographic area or sect. There is no indication that this uprising is led by, or inspired by, the Muslim Brotherhood. The Islamist group will undoubtedly gain from Assad’s fall but it will have to share power with secular democratic forces and it is doubtful that the next government will be any more supportive of extremism than the current one. This is a revolution we can cheer.

From CAN:

A Pakistani terrorist group linked to Al-Qaeda called Lashkar-e-Taiba is expanding its operations in Europe and the U.S., according to information in a New York Times article pointed out by the Jihad Watch blog.

Lashkar-e-Taiba is most known for carrying out 10 simultaneous attacks in Mumbai, India on November 26, 2008 that killed 164 people. The attackers arrived using speedboats and carried out various shootings and bombings on “soft” targets including hotels, a restaurant and a Jewish community center.

According to the report, Lashkar-e-Taiba is no longer just targeting India but is fighting U.S. soldiers in Afghanistan and wants to carry out attacks in Europe and the United States.  It is also increasing its fundraising in Germany and the United Kingdom. The group has previously pledged to “plant a flag” in Tel Aviv and Washington, D.C.

One of the motivations for attacking the West could be to spark a confrontation between the U.S. and Pakistan, possibly including military operations against safe havens for terrorists.

“There is a recognition that because of Lashkar’s associations, an attack on the United States could wind up causing the Pakistani government extreme pain,” Seth G. Jones of the RAND Corporation told the New York Times.

The terrorist group has also had contact with “homegrown” extremists in the West.

“The U.S. and British governments have both acquired overwhelming evidence that ‘homegrown’ terror cells seeking instruction at ‘real’ terror training camps frequently end up at either facilities run by LET [Lashkar-e-Taiba] or JEM [Jaish-e-Mohammed]. JEM is essentially seen as an equal substitute for LET if the latter is unavailable,” terrorism expert Evan Kohlmann told the Investigative Project on Terrorism in December 2009.

Just in case you weren’t sure that Iran is backing the Shiite uprising in Bahrain, their lap-dog Hezbollah has chimed in to support the Shiite rebels. Asharq al Awsat reports that Bahrain is upset about those comments.

MANAMA, (Reuters) – Bahrain has made a formal complaint to the Lebanese government over Shi’ite Muslim Hezbollah’s offer of support to mainly Shi’ite protesters demanding reforms in the Sunni-ruled Gulf Arab kingdom. Bahraini Foreign Minister Sheikh Khaled bin Ahmed Al Khalifa said his country would not tolerate threats from what he termed a terrorist group and would consider lodging a complaint to “international sides” if Lebanon was not able to act. The warning highlights growing tensions in the world’s largest oil-exporting region between Sunni-ruled Arab countries and non-Arab Shi’ite power Iran, just across Gulf waters. Bahrain has withdrawn top diplomats from Iran in protest over criticism of last week’s crackdown on demonstrations. “We did not take this decision without consulting the Gulf Cooperation Council,” Khalifa told Al Arabiya television, referring to a six-member Gulf Arab economic and political bloc. “When it gets to a situation where there is a conspiracy, that does not just affect Bahrain but several countries.”"

Please read the entire article for more information.

Analysis. The statement speaks for itself.

There are a lot of other factors that are behind the call for jihadis as captured by al Arabiya. The article details the most obvious problem that Iran has with fomenting revolution in Bahrain. Iran cannot send in any more Iranian Revolutionary Guards Qods Force members without their presence being revealed to the world.  Some way must be found to camouflage Iran’s role in the attempt to overthrow the al-Khalifa family. According to the article, “According to the website, 1,858 have so far volunteered, 60% of them are from Iran, 18% from Bahrain, and the others from several countries in the region including Kuwait.”

The presence of enough non-Iranian martyrs will allow Iran to assert plausible deniability even though it is an Iranian sponsored web site that is doing the recruiting and not a Bahrani or other supra-national web site.  At the moment I believe that nobody wants any information made public that points directly to the Iranians. That has serious overtones of a religious war in the Middle East.

An Iranian foothold on the western side of the Persian Gulf cannot be allowed for all sorts of reasons. Most notably would be direct access by the IRGC Qods Force to all of the Shiite majorities in numbers that would be almost impossible to control. Such an event would almost guarantee Iranian control over 40% of the World’s oil supply. That cannot be allowed to happen. It is bad enough that every time the Iranians threaten to close the Straits of Hormuz oil prices spike. Total direct control of the oil fields would subject the rest of the World to the whims of the mullahocracy.

I do not doubt that Ahmadinejad is a senior member of the clique supposedly lead by Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi. This group is devoted to the bringing forth of the Hidden Imam. Their reference to a “redeemer” may indicate that they are about to increase the pressure to create the conditions necessary to bring forth the Mahdi. That requires massive chaos. A Middle East wide war would be about as chaotic as it gets. This may also be a ploy to get some of the international and unilateral sanctions removed in return for backing off in Bahrain. The Mahdi can wait a little while longer.

The current preoccupation with the revolutions in the Mediterranean countries gives the Iranians some cover as Bahrain is off the front page in most of the Western World. The exception is Syria where the revolutionary tide is against them. Syria is 70% Sunni. There has been reported to be a force of some 5,000 IRGC personnel in Syria. It has been presumed that these people are primarily technicians and trainers for the Iranian weapons furnished to Hezbollah. How much combat capability they may possess is unknown. Also unknown is whether Turkey or Iraq would allow the overflight of Iranian aircraft carrying IRGC combat personnel to Syria. Also unknown is whether or not Hezbollah fighters are available to Assad to keep him in power. Syria is serious business for Iran. It is their western anchor in the drive to destroy Israel and advance the Shiite Islamic Revolution into the Mediterranean Basin. This may also increase the Iranian attempts to oust the al-Khalifas to make up for the loss of Syria a little bit.

Based upon the information in the al Arabiya article, I would expect to see continued acts of civil disobedience in Bahrain. These acts may not make the major news outlets until they escalate into serious violence. These events may well await the deployment of these martyrs by the Iranians.

Got this reference from Trevor. It follows right along with the rest of this article.

Shia-News, a site associated with Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi (a hard-line Shiite Twelver and an influential figure in the suppression of Iranians during their uprising to protest the fraudulent presidential election of 2009), is registering volunteers to participate in suicide bombings against Saudi interests around the world. Hundreds have already registered. Reports from inside Iran indicate that an alert has gone out to the Revolutionary Guards Quds (Qods) forces throughout the world to prepare for attacks on Saudi establishments.

The translated text of the Shia-News article:
In The Name of the Lord of Shohada and Siddiqin:

When the Holy Prophet said: “If somebody calls for help and a Muslim hears him and does not help, he is not a Muslim,” he was referring to the whole world of the humanity, not just where he lived. He didn’t just mean a Muslim who says “I am a Muslim,” prays five times a day, or goes to Mecca to perform Hajj. If we consider that the Holy Prophet is innocent and sinless and never talked nonsense (it is what all Muslims believe), we must come to see it is the will of Allah. Muslims should not be apathetic to what is happening to the people who are asking for help. They must help them in all conditions and with all the available resources.

In other words, it is time to show the supporters of international terrorism, whose hands are colored by the blood of innocents, especially the Shias, that they can’t do whatever they desire. There are some fearless youth who don’t care what is fear.

Shia-News has the honor of registering the brave youth and freedom seekers of the world who have the desire to help the oppressed people of Bahrain. The youth, at the discretion of grand ayatollahs and authorities, will give a lesson to the aggressors that will be recorded in history.

The ride is about to get a whole lot bumpier.

A blockbuster report from the Asia Times that is getting little attention claims that there are new, “strong tip-offs” about the location of Osama Bin Laden, resulting in CIA covert operations to find him in the Hindu Kush Mountains in Pakistan and Afghanistan.

In “the past few weeks,” several intelligence agencies operating in Pakistan, Afghanistan and Saudi Arabia have received “top-grade accounts…from the inner circles of militant camps.” Only weeks ago, Osama Bin Laden met with Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, an Iranian-backed insurgent leader in a terrorist camp on the borders of Kunar and Bajaur Provinces of Afghanistan. News of the meeting spread from top terrorist commanders in Bajaur to leaders in North Waziristan.

The information is relatively specific and relatively recent, but learning about something that happened in recent weeks isn’t good enough if Osama Bin Laden is quickly traveling around. If the meeting was indeed in Afghanistan (and this isn’t Pakistani disinformation meant to relieve the heat on them), then he isn’t bound to stay there long. The Hindu Kush Mountains are a huge area. It’s encouraging that we’re finally getting some sort of information about his travels that appears credible, but it’ll take more than this and a good bit of luck to take Osama out.

The Financial Times is citing a United Nations report that one quarter of North Korea’s population may be starving.

A quarter of North Korea’s 24m(illion) people are starving and the public food distribution system could run dry as early as May, the UN has concluded. Friday’s warning of an impending food crisis poses a dilemma for South Korea and western nations, which have argued that Pyongyang could be exaggerating its needs to extract aid which could be channeled to the army.
…
The UN had expected the total cereal shortfall to be 867,000 tonnes in November but has now increased this estimate by 219,000 tonnes. It also reported that the cash-strapped North was importing less grain than expected and had only bought 40,000 tonnes of the 325,000 tonnes it said it would purchase last autumn. A senior South Korean security official urged donor nations to be cautious about the report, saying the North Koreans were deceiving foreign inspectors on controlled tours. “North Korea is building up stockpiles while allowing children to starve,” he said. (Edited for space.)

Please read the entire article for more information.

Analysis. As with anything that pertains to North Korea, this is a Scientific Wild Ass Guess (SWAG). We do know the state of North Korean agriculture pretty well thanks to the LANDSAT satellite system. Considering the wonderful weather in Korea over the last few months, the estimate of winter wheat and barley losses is probably pretty close to the truth. Nor do I doubt for a minute that the general population of North Korea gets what remains after the army and the party have been fed. That has never been much.

The cancellation of the “Sunshine” policy has not helped North Korea. All of the under the table aid from South Korea to North Korea ceased. It is quite possible that North Korea has had to draw down stocks to make up for those losses. One previous article talked about taking rice out of the army’s stocks to feed the populace in 2009. That did not happen last year. We can presume that the rice taken out of army stocks was not replaced. The destruction of the private market system in November, 2009 by revaluing the North Korean Won did not help the situation. As far as I can tell, unlike the Soviet Union, North Korea does not have any kind of private plot system that would make up for the failures of the collectives. This puts another serious crimp in North Korea agriculture.

This report may also be the beginning of North Korean moves to extract aid from South Korea and especially the United States. Kim Jong Il has figured out that he no longer has control over the information that comes into the North. The recent fits over defectors and the propaganda campaign emanating from the DMZ make clear that the North’s lies about the South will not be believed by the majority of people in the North. Information about the revolutions in the Middle East and the Jasmine revolution in the PRC is reaching the North. That is not good for the Kim family.

We must carefully monitor the progress of the Spring Planting and the extent of KPA participation therein. This is simply another factor to throw in the pot with the sinking of the Cheonan, the shelling of YP Do and the problems associated with the succession of Kim Jong Un. The upcoming Korean legislative session may be another indicator of the actual situation in the North. However, we cannot allow the mess in the Middle East to distract us fully from monitoring North Korea. Kim is at his most dangerous when he believes nobody is watching.

In Libya, the rebels claim that Qaddafi is using hit men to carry out assassinations in Benghazi. As I wrote for PJM, a ceasefire will NOT end the waging of this type of warfare by both sides. The rebels have recaptured Ajdabiya and the media is all over how a rebel commander has admitted his support for Al-Qaeda and how foreign fighters that fought the U.S. in Iraq are among his ranks. This is obviously disturbing, but it should have always been expected. It should have been assumed that Islamists, including Al-Qaeda, would be a part of the opposition but that doesn’t mean they are the main component. The Muslim Brotherhood in branch is being described by CNN as “energized” but there is “little or no presence” of the group in Benghazi.

In Jordan, at least one protester has been killed and 120 wounded because of clashes between pro-government and anti-government demonstrators in Amman.

Check out our latest update on the growing revolution in Syria by clicking here.

It is incredible what is happening in Syria. The revolution has spread throughout the country and is no longer limited to one geographic area. Take a look at NOWLebanon’s map of the protests and you’ll see what I mean. Here are some updates, most from NOWLebanon:

• About 4,000 people had a sit-in around midnight in Douma near Damascus when electricity was shut off and the security forces raided it and arrested 200 people. That’s right–not 20, but 200.
• A Syrian cleric named Sheikh Adnan al-Arour is calling for the toppling of the regime and “millions” to demonstrate on Sunday, March 27.
• Protesters in Deraa are specifically calling for regime change. Mosques are being renamed in honor of those killed.
• The regime’s thugs are shooting at people from roofs in Latakia and university dorms are being raided by agents in civilian attire.
• Baath Party office set ablaze in Taurus in the south.
• There are unconfirmed reports of soldiers refusing to fire on civilians in Deraa.
• At the same time as cracking down on dissent, the regime has released 260 political prisoners.
• The governor of Homs has been fired. A video has surfaced there of an army vehicle being set on fire.

Remember, this is the regime that was mostly immune to the protests throughout the region. A planned “Day of Rage” in February completely failed. Now, Syria is one of the hotspots for unrest. The regime is mostly of the Allawite minority, which represents only 10 to 13 percent of the population. It is secular, which alienates the Islamists but it is undemocratic, which alienates the secular democratic opposition. This revolution is bound to grow.

There are reports of security personnel that only speak Farsi, the language of the Iranians, being used. The Assad regime also has close ties to terrorist groups including Hamas, Hezbollah, Palestinian Islamic Jihad and elements of Al-Qaeda. This puts the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood in a tough position as it must follow the lead of Hamas in supporting the Assad regime and abandon its long-time goal of overthrowing it, or it must break with the Hamas leadership and get behind the revolution.

This is one revolution we can cheer. The government that replaces cannot be much worse than Assad and if it is Islamist, at least it will end the West’s never-ending dream of luring Syria away from the anti-American, pro-terrorist camp. The question is how much damage the regime will do as it tries to save itself.

The Christian Action Network (CAN) has released recordings of gunfire from a Muslim-only community called Holy Islamville in York County, South Carolina from March 6. The site is run by an extremist group called Muslims of the Americas, which says it has 22 “villages” like Holy Islamville around the country. CAN has released footage showing some of its members being given guerilla warfare instruction.

The recordings were released as part of an article authored for FrontPage Magazine by Ryan Mauro, CAN’s National Security Advisor, titled “Sweet Talking the Christians.” It discusses how an event was held at Islamville on February 19 that was attended by a representative of the local sheriff’s office and churches were invited. About two weeks later on March 6, CAN obtained recordings of gunfire coming from the compound, despite the insistence of the Muslims of the Americas that the site is not used for any type of guerilla warfare training.

The Front Page article, with the recordings, can be read byCLICKING HERE.

Mauro’s piece also details how government officials and politicians have embraced the group despite its history of extremism, such as Binghamton Mayor Matthew T. Ryan.

“The success of the MOA’s outreach efforts is entirely because of negligence by those they embrace, including local officials. This information can quickly be discovered with little research. For the non-Muslim friends of the MOA, it is more important to look tolerant and open-minded than to confront unmistakable Islamic extremism,” Mauro wrote.

In 2009, CAN released a documentary named “Homegrown Jihad: Terrorist Camps Around the U.S.” about the Muslims of the Americas sites around the country. It included a secret videotape made by the group showing its Pakistan-based leader, Sheikh Gilani, telling viewers about the Islamic guerilla warfare training offered at these sites. The tape then shows some of the tactics being learned, including the firing of AK-47s, hijacking vehicles and setting off explosives. In the film, CAN’s staff visits several of the MOA sites around the country.

Shortly after the release of “Homegrown Jihad,” CAN was given a second MOA tape that showed female members at Islamberg in Hancock, N.Y., receiving guerilla warfare training while in military attire. They are seen marching in formation, practicing combat with knives and swords and firing guns into a lake.

Martin Mawyer, the President of CAN, says that the group is finishing up a video to supplement “Homegrown Jihad” using the information they have received since the film’s release. New information about the group and Islamville specifically will be included, he says.

This is looking more and more like an uprising about regime change. FoxNews.com has a detailed update that shows how intense things have gotten around Syria:

Soldiers shot at demonstrators in the restive southern city of Daraa after crowds set fire to a bronze statue of the country’s late president, Hafez Assad, a resident told The Associated Press. Heavy gunfire could be heard in the city center and witnesses reported several casualties, the resident said on condition of anonymity for fear of reprisals.

An activist told the AP that witnesses had reported one demonstrator shot dead by security forces in the coastal city of Latakia, and another slain in the central city of Homs. He said several people had been hospitalized in Latakia.

In the capital, Damascus, people shouting in support of the Daraa protesters clashed with regime supporters outside the historic Umayyad mosque, hitting each other with leather belts.

It’s very hard to confirm numbers, but it appears that tens of thousands have hit the street with one witness said there were about 50,000 in Deraa alone.

The biggest news is coming out of Syria. The Reform Party of Syria is reporting that “scores” have been killed in Deraa, “several” in Aleppo, Homs, Latakia and Deir al-Zour and 20 have been killed in  As Sanamyn. There is video of a large demonstration on the outskirts of Damascus at Al Ghouta and Rifai Mosque in the capita. There is a protest in Jablah, which RPS says is an “Assad stronghold” and in Hama, a Muslim Brotherhood stronghold that was the scene of the 1982 massacre.

The Iranian Revolutionary Guards may indeed be involved in the violence (as previously reported) because RPS says that an eyewitness told BBC Arabic that armed units speaking in Farsi are in Deraa. It is also claimed that the demonstrators have captured five snipers and the Farsi-speakers have been arrested and non-Syrians speaking Farsi were captured at the al-Omari Mosque.

Al-Jazeera reports that 10 have died in clashes in Sanamin and pro-Assad “protesters” have surrounded the al-Jazeera office in Damascus threatening to seize the building if the network does not air their support for him. Three were also killed in Mouadamieh district of Damascus when residents tried to stop a convoy of Assad supporters. The network confirms protests in Aleppo, Homs, Latakia, Hama and Damascus, so this uprising truly has spread around the country.

In a bold move, Secretary of Defense Gates has said the Syrian army should follow in the footsteps of the Egyptian military that “empowered a revolution.”

In Bahrain, the security forces prevented large protests and one elderly man died because of the tear gas.

In Libya, Qaddafi’s aides are telling him to defeat the rebels around Misurata and then agree to allow the opposition to govern the eastern part of the country. This is less of a proposal and more of a recognition of the inevitable.

In Jordan, over 1,000 people protested in Amman yesterday.

In Yemen, President Saleh is negotiating with General Ahmar for a deal where both men would resign from their positions and power would be transferred to a civilian authority. Protesters are hoping to assemble a crowd of one million in Sanaa today.