World Threats

Rumors have swirled around Libyan dictator Muommar Qaddafi that he may be ready to seek a peace deal with the rebels. However, if his public comments are any indication, he may not be.

This comes as he meets with the President of South Africa, Jacob Zuma, and appeared on Libyan state television:

“Col. Gaddafi called for an end to the bombings to enable a Libyan dialogue,” Zuma’s office said in a statement. “He emphasized that he was not prepared to leave his country, despite the difficulties.”

Zuma also said Gaddafi’s personal safety “is a concern” — a reference to NATO strikes which have repeatedly hit the Libyan leader’s Bab al-Aziziyah compound and other locations used by the Libyan leader and his family.

And with the news he’s hiding in hospitals, his time is running out.

At least fifty people have been killed since Sunday in the deteriorating situation in Yemen. The country at the tip of the Arabian Peninsula has seen increasing violence, including the takeover of one town by al Qaeda-linked extremists.

Now it appears that the situation is boiling out of control:

The UN said reports indicated that those in Taiz had been killed by “Yemeni army, Republican Guards and other government-affiliated elements who forcibly destroyed the protest camp in Horriya Square using water cannons, bulldozers and live ammunition”.

Navi Pillay, the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, has urged all parties to find a peaceful solution to the conflict, saying that the “bloodshed must stop”.

“Such reprehensible acts of violence and indiscriminate attacks on unarmed civilians by armed security officers must stop immediately. Further violence will only yield more insecurity and move the country further away from a resolution to this political crisis,” she said.

The situation is one step away from a civil war.

Eight high-ranking Libyan army officers are among at least 120 officials and soldiers to leave Qaddafi’s side in recent days, according to a report Monday from Reuters.

In a news conference organized by the Italian government, five former generals, two former colonels and a former major talked about the “killing, genocide and violence against women” they witnessed while under Qaddafi’s command. According to former General Salah Giuma Yahmed, Qaddafi’s army has been severely weakened by NATO operations. By his estimation, it has been “reduced to 20 percent of its original capacity” and ”not more than 10″ generals remain loyal to him.

The defectors said they escaped Qaddafi’s security forces by secretly fleeing across Libya’s western border with Tunisia, which is controlled by opposition rebels. Though Qaddafi will likely replace the officers remaining loyalists and/or family members, the senior commander’s move sets an important precedent for future defections, which, if they continue at this pace, could completely cripple what’s left of Qaddafi’s command structure.

Oun Ali Oun, one of the generals who spoke with reporters in Rome appealed directly to fellow soldiers and urged them to abandon Qaddafi “in the name of the martyrs who have fallen in the defense of freedom”. Meanwhile, the BBC is reporting that South African President Jacob Zuma is holding talks in Tripoli ”to discuss an immediate ceasefire, the delivery of humanitarian aid and the implementation of reforms needed to end the crisis.” His office is adamant , however, that the talks will not be focusing on an exit strategy for Qaddafi.

Over 400 al-Qaeda militants have moved into the Sinai Peninsula, a senior Egyptian security official told Al-Hayyat TV Monday. According to the report, Egyptian forces are pursing the militants, which were described variously as Bedouins, Palestinians and foreign Arab citizens. Additionally, the statement claims Egyptian forces are monitoring reports of “a number of attacks against security forces in the Sinai city of El Arish.”

The Jerusalem Post reported Monday that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also addressed Egypt’s security problems in Sinai during a meeting of his government’s Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee. “Egypt has had difficulties exercising its sovereignty over Sinai” he said, adding “What’s happening in Sinai is that global terrorist organizations are meddling there and their presence is increasing because of the connection between Sinai and Gaza.”

Central to Israeli concerns here are worries that the recently reopened Rafah border crossing will enable terrorist groups to transfer larger quantities of weapons and militants from Sinai into the Gaza strip.

According to the Israeli Ministry of Defence’s Coordinator of Government Activities Activities in the Territories (COGAT) some 162,000 people passed through the crossing in 2010 alone. Without independent monitoring officials from COGAT have called Egypt’s recent move to reopen the crossing “dangerous” and have called on the international community to stop it.

There is growing evidence that Iran is sending trainers and advisors from its elite Qods Force into Syria to help crush the rebellion there. US officials quoted in a report from The Washington Post this week are suggesting that a constant supply of aid from Tehran that includes “sophisticated surveillance equipment” is being used by Syrian security forces to track protesters through their Facebook and Twitter accounts.

Though Western officials have long accused Iran of supplying military aid to the Syrian regime, these charges and their timing are significant.

According to an unnamed diplomat, Iranian Qods trainers are being brought to Damascus “to instruct Syrians in techniques used against [Iran's] Green Movement.” Further, members of the Qods Forces have been active in Syria in this capacity since mid-April. This development is ultimately telling in that it suggests Assad’s lifting of his regime’s former ban on Facebook  may have actually been part of a preemptive strategy guided by Iranian security forces aimed at getting better access to potential dissidents’ locations and communication networks. According to officials, recent U.S. sanctions which targeted the Qods were meant as a warning to Iran to stop these activities.

The Israeli army is preparing for more protests at its boarders next weekend as Palestinian organizers are planning demonstrations in Lebanon, Syria and Jordan to mark the anniversary of the 1967 Arab-Israeli War.

According to a report from the Associated Press, the IDF is taking early steps to better prepare its soldiers for possible violence. In hopes of avoiding civilian casualties army officials plan to set clear “red lines” for demonstrators, which they say should help avoid the kind of clashes we saw on May 15^th.

It’s entirely unlikely, however, that such lines will deter those planning on aggravating territorial tensions. As a result, IDF officials say a larger number of troops will be deployed than we what we saw on Nakba Day and that “they will be equipped with crowd-control tools such as rubber bullets and water cannons.”

Officials are adamant that they will not allow demonstrators to breach Israeli boarders again. The IDF is promising to react non-violently … unless demonstrators instigate “life-threatening” situations.

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The Bahraini Royal Family has justified its crackdown on the opposition by saying they are puppets of Iran. Indeed, the Iranian regime has been meddling and a proxy war there cannot be ruled out. President Obama admitted that there are legitimate concerns about how Iran is trying to destabilize the Bahraini government. However, we should not be suckered into thinking that the uprising in Bahrain is about replicating the Iranian system of governance or implementing Sharia Law. In fact, the main opposition groups have condemned Iranian meddling and specifically reject Velayat-e-Faqih.

A new poll had the following findings:

• Over 50% of the population completely rejects only allowing Islamists to compete in a parliamentary system. Only 25% support the idea.
• 63% of the Shiites, which make up 70% of the population, reject Sharia-based governance. Only 25% support it.
• Almost 75% of the Shiites want a parliamentary democracy where all parties are allowed to compete. The level of support for democracy by the Bahraini Shiites is 15% higher than among the Sunnis, discrediting the Royal Family’s propaganda.
• Nearly 50% of the Sunnis reject Sharia-based governance, but about 40% support it.

The Syrian military is attempting the same tactic that it has been using for the last month. According to sources in the country, the army is surrounding towns that are centers of anti-regime protests. The army has done this before in Deraa, leading to the deaths of hundreds as tanks fired indiscriminately into crowds, as well as the arrests of thousands.

Now it comes down to Rastan and Talbisa, near the Lebanese border.

The two towns attacked on Sunday are close to Homs, the site of some of the largest demonstrations in recent weeks.

Tanks encircled Rastan and troops began firing heavy machine-guns in the streets of the town, an eyewitness told Reuters news agency.
Map

One unconfirmed report said at least two people were shot dead by military checkpoints set up outside Rastan, and others said that scores of tanks were being used, with helicopters flying overhead.

The protests keep going even despite the massacres and large round-ups. Unfortunately, the Syrian military shows no upper-level defections yet.

As if the news coming from Yemen isn’t scary enough, it appears to be getting worse. Just several days after armed tribesmen took over an army camp, it appears that al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula has taken over an entire town in southern Yemen.

There is talk that the evacuation of the town by the Yemeni military was intentional:

But opponents said President Ali Abdullah Saleh had given up the town to stoke fears of a militant takeover.

Even if that was the case, Yemen appears just several steps away from either another civil war or becoming a new Somalia:

“About 300 Islamic millitants and Al Qaeda men came into Zinjibar and took over everything on Friday,” a Zinjibar resident told Reuters.

However, one military unit was reported to have refused to surrender and was now surrounded, reports said.

The United States better figure out a policy quick.

Sheikh Hazem Abu Ismail announced Saturday, during a speech in Dokki, that he will run for the position of Egypt’s president it the country’s coming elections. He is the second Muslim Brothood member to make the move after the Islamist organization originally announced they would not field candidates for the presidency. Abu Ismail previously ran for the Brotherhood in 2005 parliamentary elections for Dokki in Giza.

According to a report from Egypt’s Al Masry Al Youm, Abu Ismail says that if elected president he would makes moves to immediately implement sharia law and scrap Egypt’s touted peace treaty with Israel. “If I could apply sharia in Egypt, all people, including non-Muslims, would applaud me four years later,” he said, adding “We seek to apply Islamic law, but those who don’t want it prefer cabarets, alcohol, dancers and prostitution”. On the state’s crucial peace treaty with Israel, he remarked “The Camp David peace treaty is insulting to the Egyptian people, so it must be canceled, and I will do my best to convince people to cancel it.”

Abu Ismail is a considered by many analysts a hardliner for his staunch anti-Israel rhetoric. He grabbed headlines in 2009 when, during an address on AL-Nas TV, he famously argued that Pepsi corporation was a Zionist conspiracy stealing the spare change of hard working Muslims. His Evidence? Go here to hear it for yourself!

But Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are allies, right?

A document released by WikiLeaks shows that the principal officer of the U.S. consulate in Lahore in November 2008 said that $100 million was making its way to Pakistani madrasses in Punjab Province from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates every year. It is inconceivable that the Arab governments do not know about this massive transfer of wealth.

And what goes on in these “religious schools,” you ask?

“At these madrassas, children are denied contact with the outside world and taught sectarian extremism, hatred for non-Muslims, and anti-Western/anti-Pakistan government philosophy,” said the cable.

It described how “families with multiple children” and “severe financial difficulties” were being exploited and recruited, Dawn reported.

“The path following recruitment depends upon the age of the child involved. Younger children (between 8 and 12) seem to be favored,” said the cable.

Teachers in seminaries would assess the inclination of children “to engage in violence and acceptance of jihadi culture.”

The most impressive students that are “chosen for jihad” then go on to bigger and better things. As The Dawn reports:

“youths were generally sent on to more established training camps in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas and then on to jihad either in FATA, NWFP, or as suicide bombers in settled areas.”

This isn’t the only cable exposing the Saudis. Another one written by Secretary of State Clinton said:

“it has been an ongoing challenge to persuade Saudi officials to treat terrorist financing emanating from Saudi Arabia as a strategic priority…Donors in Saudi Arabia constitute the most significant source of funding to Sunni terrorist groups worldwide” — running into millions of dollars.”

Check out what one of the organizers and donors just said. Yasser Qashlaq, chairman of the Free Palestine Movement, had this to say on May 17 on Hezbollah’s television station:

Like Imam Khomeini said, back in the day, if each of us were to spit, we would drown out all five million of them. The number of Jews – those human pieces of filth – in my land equals one third of the people of the Nasr City neighborhood in Cairo. […]

And here’s what he said on June 18, 2010:

Yasser Qashlaq: “Whenever that criminal gang of Israeli pirates seizes a ship, I become more optimistic that the day will come when these ships will carry these dregs of European garbage back to their own countries.

“Let Gilad Shalit return to Paris. Let those murderers return to Poland. Once they are back there, we will hunt them down to the end of the world, and prosecute them for their massacres, from Deir Yassin to this day.” [...]

“I would like to say something to the Israeli people.”

Interviewer: “To the settlers.”

Yasser Qashlaq: “Yes, to that gang of criminal murderers. Board the ship we are sending you, and return to your countries. Don’t be misled by the Arab leaders or the moderate camp. You will never be able to make peace with us. Our children will return [to Palestine]. There is no reason for coexistence. Even if some of our leaders or regimes sign [peace] with you – we will never sign. Do not be misled by these regimes. Return to your countries.”

The Turkish flotilla was a trap and a provocation. Look at my report on Viva Palestina, which also took part in the set-up. Also take a look at the background of the IHH, another extremist organization that has ties to Hamas.

Everyone was so focused on the part of President Obama’s Middle East speech about a Palestinian state within the 1967 borders that his transformation into a democracy-spreading, regime-changing neocon was missed. He proclaimed the goal of American foreign policy in the Middle East is “to promote reform across the region, and to support transitions to democracy.” Those are more polite words for incremental regime changes of all the undemocratic governments.

The beginning of President Obama’s term was marked by a concerted effort to convince the Iranian regime that the U.S. does not seek its removal. An “outstretched hand” was offered to rogue states and funding was cut to organizations undermining the Iranian regime. The Obama administration reversed course over time, especially since the advent of the Arab Spring. Human rights was always vocally supported, but not in such a loud fashion. Now, policy is being overhauled to make promoting freedom its central component. What a George W. Bush thing to do.

The Obama administration first began warming up to regime change in Iran, even if it did not have a strong strategy to accomplish it. The Green Revolution forced President Obama to begin altering his language and in September, Secretary of State Clinton let it be known that she desires regime change.

Click here to read the rest of my PJM article.

A Japanese newspaper reports that over 200 North Korean engineers are working at a dozen Iranian nuclear and ballistic missile sites, including the Natanz centrifuge farm. The revelation comes after a U.N. report said that the North Koreans are sending missile technology to Iran via China.

I think this number is a bit low. If you look at how deeply involved North Korea is in Burma’s nuclear weapons program (click here for my article on the subject), 200 engineers in Iran seems rather small.

For a summary of the North Korean-Iranian-Syrian nuclear Axis of Evil, click here for an article I wrote in March 2010. The good news is that both Iran and North Korea are cash-strapped and dependent upon one another. The North Korean regime needs money from rogue state customers, especially Iran. The Iranian regime needs North Korean help to continue its WMD programs. And the Syrian needs both, just as both need it.

Hurt one, hurt all.