World Threats

According to an unscientific online poll, a new Islamist candidate is gaining steam in Egypt’s presidential race named Mohammed Selim al-Awa. He presents himself as a democratic “reformist” with no political affiliation, but he has made several concerning statements and is suspected by some experts of being the favored candidate of the Muslim Brotherhood.

The Facebook page of the Supreme Council of Armed Forces, which has governed Egypt since the removal of President Hosni Mubarak, has a poll asking respondents who they will vote for in the presidential election. With over 100,000 votes, Mohammed el-Baradei came in first with 35 percent. Mohammed Selim al-Awa came in second. Amr Moussa, considered the strong front-runner, came in fourth. Only one-fifth of the Egyptian population has Internet access, so it is not representative of the population as a whole, but the survey indicates that al-Awa is a force to be reckoned with.

Al-Awa styles himself as a reformer who promotes a moderate, modern version of Islam. He argues that Western democracy is the best representation of the Islamic principle of “shura,” or consultation. He says he promotes critical thinking towards religion, as his father raised him to “question even the interpretation of a Qur’anic verse or a prophetic saying and not to take it for granted. I learned from him to steer away from the dogmatic understanding of religion.”

Click here to read the rest of my FPM article.

According to a Kuwaiti newspaper, Turkey is considering pursuing an undeclared policy of regime change towards Syria that includes a deep offensive into its neighbor. The Turks have been talking about creating a “buffer zone” along the border to provide a safe haven for the refugees and hopefully, a Benghazi-like place for defectors and for the opposition to organize.

From the report:

Turkish officials informed several western powers that Ankara might launch a military operation in northern Syria in an attempt to overthrow President Bashar al-Assad’s Baath Party, Kuwaiti newspaper As-Seyassah reported on Monday.

“Turkey informed Britain, France, Italy, Germany and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) leadership of the possibility that it would launch an offensive in… Aleppo, Homs, Hama and Latakia,” the daily quoted unnamed British officials as saying.

The daily also quoted a Lebanese diplomat in Ankara as saying that “Turkish officials fear the possibility of the Syrian army committing mistakes on its borders, which might oblige the Turkish army to cross the Syrian border.”

If true, this would mark a big change in Turkey’s role in the region. Before, the Erdogan government sought to become a card-carrying member of the anti-Israel/anti-Western alliance. The breaking of the relationship with Syria would also mean a breaking of the relationship with Iran. This does not mean that Turkey would necessarily be pro-Israel, but it would reflect a desire to be the regional powerhouse and revive some of the Ottoman-era glory.

According to new reports, hundreds of Yemeni troops have defected from the military. These include over 100 members of the Republican Guard, run by dictator Ali Abdullah Saleh’s brother.

The defections are the latest in a series by security forces since the anti-Saleh uprising began in February. Most prominent was the defection in March of Brigadier General Ali Mohsen, who has since sent in his troops to guard protesters in Sanaa.

The protests have culminated in battles between Saleh loyalists and gunmen from the powerful Hashed tribal federation in Sanaa that brought the country to the verge of civil war.

This also comes as there is a fierce battle raging between al Qaeda-linked terrorists and members of the Yemeni military.

Hugo Chavez has not been seen in public since June 10, when he underwent surgery in Cuba. The Venezuelan government insists he was successfully treated for a pelvic abscess, but there are consistent rumors that the strongman has prostate cancer. The opposition is demanding answers, while the government says Chavez is ruling from Havana.

The country has not heard at all from Chavez except for one phone call to a state television program. His mother and daughter flew to Cuba to visit him, giving the impression that his illness is more severe than is being portrayed. The Vice Foreign Minister shot down rumors about his health, tweeting, “President Chavez is recovering well from his surgery. His enemies should stop dreaming and his friends should stop worrying.”

Thor Halvorssen, President of the Human Rights Foundation, told FrontPage that he is cautious about reports of Chavez’s impending death because it may reflect wishful thinking, and rumors about the demise of tyrants are common. However, “something of consequence is occurring when the Venezuelan president has vanished from the public eye after working 12 years to become the center of the universe in Venezuela complete with a cult of personality.”

Click here to read the rest of my FPM article.

From CAN:

The wife of former New York Rep. Anthony Weiner, who recently resigned after being caught sending sexually explicit photos to another woman through Twitter, has family connections to the Muslim Brotherhood, reports Walid Shoebat, a former PLO terrorist.

According to Shoebat, Weiner’s mother in law, Saleha Mahmoud Abedin, is named by an Egyptian newspaper as a member of the Muslim Brotherhood’s International Women’s Organization, also known as the Muslim Sisterhood.

The Sisterhood exists to “spread the Brotherhood’s ideology by infiltrating universities, schools and homes…to penetrate its prohibited ideology into the decision making of the West and in an indirect way under the guise of ‘general needs of women,” in the words of the paper.

Abedin’s brother, Hassan Abedin, also sits on the board of the Oxford Centre for Islamic Studies, alongside top Brotherhood cleric Sheikh Yousef al-Qaradawi.

Weiner’s wife, Huma Abedin, is a Deputy Chief of Staff to Secretary of State Clinton. Sheobat noted that Clinton spoke at the Dar El-Hekma women’s college in Saudi Arabia, which Saleha Mahmoud Abedin is a co-founder and vice dean of. Clinton praised Huma when she took the stage after her mother.

“[I]t strains credulity to assume that she [Huma] is unaware of those associations, just as it is impossible that Mrs. Clinton doesn’t know,” Shoebat told FrontPage Magazine.

United States and Afghan forces have launched an airborne assault against Taliban fighters in Kunar province. Hundreds of soldiers were airlifted to the region with the idea of defeating organized pockets of Taliban control. In this region bordering Pakistan, the Taliban functions more as a pseudo-government than simply a terrorist group.

The offensive operation is the largest for the 3rd Brigade since its deployment to eastern Afghanistan in April. A brigade spokesman, Maj. David Eastburn, said it was at least “five to seven times larger than any previous operation conducted by the brigade.”

So far the operation appears to be going well:

U.S. military commanders said they have so far killed close to 80 insurgents.

Brigade Intelligence Officer Maj. Chris Rankin said the militants were part of the Taliban and Pakistani insurgent groups such as the Tehrik-i-Taliban, known as the TTP, and the al-Qaeda-affiliated Lashkar-e-Taiba, which regularly cross the ill-defined border to wage attacks on American and Afghan troops.

“It’s (Watahpur) an ideal insurgent safe haven,” Rankin said.

The LeT launched the Mumbai attacks and could be considered (no turn of phrase meant) as al Qaeda 1.5– ready to launch attacks in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and India. Soon perhaps outside of South Asia.

Cross-posted at Pundit Press.

Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula and linked groups have consolidated their control over a portion of southern Yemen as that nation spirals into virtual civil war. It appears that the Yemeni government and military is nearly powerless to stop this.

The militants, operating under the name “Ansar al-Sunna,” or supporters of Islamic Sharia law, captured the coastal city of Zinjibar in late May.

Zinjibar is on the Arabian Sea and normally has a population of about 150,000. But residents on Monday said large parts of the city are deserted and most stores are shuttered. There is a shortage of drinking water, forcing residents to bring water from wells on the city’s outskirts.

They said the province’s main hospital, al-Rajaa, on the road to the nearby city of Jaar, has been taken over by the militants and is being run by physicians from Sudan and Syria. They said the militants also have taken over local government offices.

“Why has not the army moved in to retake the city?” asked Zinjibar resident Ali al-Sumeiti, 22. “Now, from every 10 shells they fire on the city, only one hits the militants.”

Another Zinjibar resident, 65-year-old retiree Abdullah al-Mohandes, said residents were running out of food and were heavily dependent on kitchen gardens to survive.

Al-Mohandes, however, had some praise for the militants.

“To be completely honest, we have not been badly treated by the mujahideen. On the contrary, they try to win our goodwill all the time,” he said. “If you tell them you want to leave town, they escort you out and give you money to tide you over.”

The jihadists are attempting to placate the civilians with programs, just as Hamas and Hezbollah have done. This could engender trust from the locals, which would be a very bad sign.

UPDATE: BBC reports at least ten dead.

A security official said three suicide bombers had blown themselves up – at the hotel’s front gate, on the second floor, and at the back of the hotel.

The Taliban said it was responsible.

Officials said a meeting of provincial governors taking place at the hotel might have been the reason for it.

The Taliban, in what has been called a ‘huge’ attack have breached security around a high-end Kabul hotel frequented by foreigners. According to early reports, multiple suicide bombers hit the hotel, as well as terrorists wielding automatic weapons. According to the reports, the gunfire is ongoing.

A news conference had been scheduled to take place Wednesday in the hotel to discuss the planned transition of security from international to Afghan forces. The hotel is on a hill on the outskirts of Kabul and is typically protected by heavy security.

Three Taliban penetrated that security, and one of them detonated an explosion on the second floor, said Erin Cunningham, a journalist in Kabul for The National. “We’re continuing to hear small-arms fire right now,” she told CNN from a vantage about 500 meters (a third of a mile) from the hotel. Several snipers were on the roof firing at Afghan security forces.

A few minutes beforehand, she said, rocket-propelled grenades were launched from the roof of the hotel toward the area of the first vice president’s house. “Everyone is pretty nervous,” she said. “A lot of people are fleeing the scene.”

They are trying a high-profile attack to highlight the perceived slow rate of turnover to Afghan forces. Hopefully no non-Taliban are killed.

From CAN:

The Muslim who was arrested in Arlington Cemetery on June 17 has been tied to five shootings at four military sites around Washington D.C. last year, theNew York Times reports. Yonathan Melaku, a reservist in the Marines, was apprehended with shell casings and a notebook referencing Osama Bin Laden, Al-Qaeda, the Taliban, and other terms related to radical Islam.

In October and November, the National Museum of the Marine Corps, the Pentagon, and Coast Guard and Marine Corps recruiting stations were fired upon, causing over $100,000 in damages. There were no casualties. Melaku was charged with the shootings after the authorities linked the empty shell casings he was carrying to the scenes of the crimes.

A video of Melaku confiscated from his home proved his involvement.

“That’s what they get. That’s my target. That’s the military building. It’s going to be attacked.” He then is recorded opening fire, while shouting “Allahu Akbar,” according to FoxNews.com.

Melaku has also been found to have a list of ingredients for improvised explosive devices, and his laptop contained instructions for creating explosives. He is believed to have been radicalized on the Internet, particularly by viewing YouTube videos about alleged U.S. crimes against the Muslim world.

Melaku is an Ethiopian-American and joined the Marines in 2007. The Marines said Melaku will be punished with “administrative separation” for another crime.

From CAN:

On June 22, two former convicts who converted to Islam while in prison were arrested for planning to attack a military recruiting building, ABC News reports. The two suspects, Abu Khalid Abdul-Latif and Walli Mujahidh, were tipped off to the authorities by an informant that they sought to recruit for the plot.

“This is my way of getting rid of sins…I got so many of ‘em,” Mujahidh told the informant.

According to the complaint, Abdul-Latif said he would to ram a large truck into the station, and then attack the cafeteria with grenades. The two planned the attack in detail and sought to maximize casualties.

They also talked of the media coverage if they could seize the station. The goal was to inspire other acts of homegrown terrorism.

“Imagine how many young Muslims, if we’re successful, will try to hit these kinds of centers. Imagine how fearful America will be,” Abdul-Latif told Mujahidh, according to the authorities.

The pair was arrested after they arrived at a garage to pick up machine guns, which were planted by the FBI and could not be used.

The arrest of the two converts comes as Rep. Peter King, chairman of the House Homeland Security Committee, is under fire for holding a hearing last week about the spread of radical Islam in prisons on June 15. Critics of King alleged that the threat was being overblown and some accused King of having an anti-Muslim bias, which he denies.

From CAN:

Dutch parliamentarian Geert Wilders has been acquitted of all hate crimes charges brought against him for his criticisms of Islam, though the judges condemned his remarks. Wilders’ Freedom Party is the third largest in parliament, making him an increasingly powerful player in Dutch politics.

“Today is a victory for freedom of speech. The Dutch are still allowed to speak critically about Islam, and resistance against Islamisation is not a crime. I have spoken, I speak and I shall continue to speak,” the Telegraph quoted Wilders as declaring.

Judge Marcel van Oosten told Wilders that his statements are “crude and denigrating,” “hurtful,” “shocking” and “on the edge of what is legally permissible.” However, he cannot be punished for them, it was decided.

Political scientist Andre Krouwel told Reuters that the court case has benefited Wilders.

“This has made him stronger politically. He is needed for a political majority, he is basically vice prime minister without even being in the government,” he said.

Wilders is planning on publishing a book next year that condemns Islam’s founder, Mohammed. He also hopes to release a film about Mohammed. His previous film, Fitna, resulted in death threats and contributed to his prosecution.

Last year, the Christian Action Network released ISLAM RISING: Geert Wilders’ Warning to the West. The film features a speech Wilders gave in the U.S. about the dangers facing Americans and includes Fitna.

 

The Yemeni government is now claiming that dictator Ali Abdullah Saleh, who was seriously hurt in a rocket attack earlier this month, will appear publicly shortly. This comes as the situation in the country appears to be in the early stages of a civil war. The government stated that Saleh would return to the country after undergoing extensive surgery in neighboring Saudi Arabia.

“He will appear within the next 48 hours despite our fear that the burns on his features and on different parts of his body will be an obstacle given that his appearance will not be as the media expects it,” said Ahmed al-Sufi, the President’s media secretary.

A nearly failed state, Yemen has been rocked by months of protests against Saleh’s three decades of rule. Before that, he was grappling with a rebellion in the north, separatist violence in the south and a resurgent wing of al Qaeda.

Sufi said Saleh was in good health and continued to direct Yemeni affairs from abroad. Saleh’s deputy Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi has been at the helm while the president recovers.

This won’t be enough to stop the civil war. It may be too late for that.

A suicide bomber drove his car packed with explosives into a crowded hospital in Logar Province yesterday afternoon – killing 25 women and children. Dozens of civilians were wounded in the cowardly attack and taken to hospitals in Kabul.

The attack is most likely the butchery of local Taliban, but one of their allies could also be responsible.

This comes only five days after President Obama announced the draw down of 33,000 American troops over the next fifteen months. I wonder if this attack in Logar Province, which is still partially under the Taliban’s control, might cause him to reconsider his politically motivated move.

Our friends cannot win this fight without American boots on the ground and we should never consider talks with these bloodthirsty animals. We must stay the course; cancel all draw downs and fight this war until we successfully defeat the enemy, which can only be measured in the number of dead Taliban.

But that will only happen if the American people demand we stay involved, of if the American President grows a spine and shoves the poll numbers.

What say you?

The tension between Syria and Turkey is quickly rising, and the possibility of the Turkish military establishing a “buffer zone” along the border is growing with it. Such a zone will help house and protect the refugees (who the Syrian army have cut off food from), as well as potentially offer a safe haven for the opposition to defect and organize. For those who look kindly upon regime change in Syria, that’s a positive development, though Erdogan may exercise favorability towards the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood.

Syrian regime officials are now accusing Turkey of arming rebel forces that have attacked the Syrian army. One officer who gave a tour of Jisr al-Shoughour said Turkey claimed the rebels there are allied with Al-Qaeda and used Turkish weapons.

Al-Bawaba reports that the Turkish army along the border has been put on alert and more defectors have escaped Syria. An additional 1,500 refugees made it to Turkey yesterday, and said that the Syrian army has put snipers on roof-tops in the area to hunt down those trying to flee. The Assad regime is not backing down and has reinforced the forces near the border. As the last link reminds us, Turkey called on Assad to implement sweeping reforms within a week after his speech last week. What happens after that deadline is crossed?

This from Hurriyet.

Turkey is greatly concerned by Syria’s military maneuvers within a stone’s throw of the country’s southern border, as well as its rebuke of Ankara’s call for reform in the turmoil-hit Arab republic, according to officials. Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu criticized the military action next to the border, which caused many Syrians to flee across the Turkish border in fear, a Foreign Ministry official told the Hürriyet Daily News on Friday. Ankara is closely monitoring the operations, Davutoğlu told reporters Friday, adding that he had conveyed Turkey’s “concerns and thoughts about the situation” to his Syrian counterpart by phone the previous day. Turkish officials lodged their concerns with Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Muallem because they were unsatisfied by Syrian claims that the troop movements, which are being conducted a few hundred meters from the frontier, were merely an operation to catch terrorists.

Additionally, Debka is reporting That Turkey and Israel have restarted intelligence cooperation in the Eastern Mediterranean.

After more than a year of strained relations, Turkey has decided to restore military and intelligence collaboration in the eastern Mediterranean with Israel as Ankara heads for a military showdown with Syria, according to debkafile’s exclusive military sources. The deal worked out between President Barack Obama and Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu also gives Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan a role in Israeli-Palestinian diplomacy and a chance to bring Hamas into the process.
The deal was discussed in a telephone conversation that took place between the US president and Turkish prime minister last Tuesday June 21, hours after Assad’s hardnosed speech at Damascus University. The last ends were tied up when Israel’s Deputy Prime Minister, Strategic Affairs Minister Moshe Yaalon, visited Ankara secretly last week and met Erdogan and Fidan Hakan, the head of Turkish intelligence MIT.

Please read both articles for more important information.

Analysis. While it appears that both sides are preparing for all eventualities including armed conflict, I don’t believe that Bashar Assad wants war with Turkey. Debka adds from the above referenced article.

Saturday, June 25, Turkey began setting up a big new camp to accommodate a further influx of 12,000 to 15,000 Syrian refugees at Apaydin 10 kilometers from the border, on the opposite side of which Syria’s crack 4th Division is massing tanks under the command of Syrian Republican Guard commander Gen. Maher Assad, the president’s brother. The numbers of refugees continued to swell after soldiers again opened fire on tens of thousands of demonstrators who poured into the streets after Friday prayers, killing at least nineteen. As Syrian-Turkish military tensions continue to escalate, Ankara saw the necessity of coordinating its air and naval operations with the United States and Israel in case the Syrian ruler responded to a border flare-up by launching surface missiles against Turkish military targets and US bases in Turkey.

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