World Threats

The Republican presidential campaign is about to go into overdrive. Five debates are to be held in just six weeks starting on September 7. The race has essentially restarted since the entry of Texas Governor Rick Perry upended the dynamics of the contest. Some candidacies will fall apart. Others will unexpectedly propel forward. And some will do both, in either order. Now, the real fun starts.

It’s the Rick Perry Show right now, but the spotlight can burn. He leads Romney by 27-14 among Republican and Republican-leaning independents nationally. His immediate task is to meet extremely high expectations. General Wesley Clark and former Senator Fred Thompson were overhyped and their candidacies quickly faded. Perry’s advantage is that he’s the three-term governor of Texas, giving him much more experience than they had in politics. As I mentioned on Hannity, he also has a base of support among evangelicals. It’s hard to think of anything that can top his “Day of Prayer.” If Perry does meet expectations, the anti-Romney vote will begin coalescing around him and he will be a strong frontrunner.

Mitt Romney will hold back from striking Perry in the beginning because he knows the other candidates will do the job for him. The fates of their candidacies depend upon undermining Perry. Romney wants the right-of-Romney vote to be as divided as possible, and he hopes that the candidates will be too busy sniping at each other to throw any hard punches his way. He will also focus on electability, playing on concerns that Perry is too much of a regional candidate. Romney’s style in the past debates will probably go unchanged for now.

Michele Bachmann has a dilemma. She needs to bring down Perry without seeming panicked and unpresidential and without alienating his supporters. She must hope that Sarah Palin stays out of the race and if she does, that she doesn’t endorse Perry. Bachmann will emphasize her credentials on illegal immigration, positioning herself to benefit when Perry is criticized on the issue. She will refrain from going on a strong offensive against Perry for the moment and will wait to see if the media scrutiny and high expectations bring him down in the polls.

Click here to read the rest of my PJM article.

Update: A senior rebel commander believes Qaddafi is either in Bani Walid or Sirte. Excerpt from my FrontPage article below:

The Libyan National Transitional Council (NTC) is facing its first foreign confrontation after Algeria decided to permit the entry of two of Qaddafi’s sons, his second wife and his daughter. The Libyan rebels have long accused Algeria of taking Qaddafi’s side in the civil war. At the same time, the search for Qaddafi and his other sons continue, with one close associate claiming the dictator fled to the city of Sabha.

There were rumors that Qaddafi and his sons fled to Algeria as Tripoli fell to the rebels. A convoy of six armored vehicles were said to have crossed into Algeria. The Algerian government denied the account. On Monday, the Algerian government confirmed that Safia, Qaddafi’s second wife and his daughter, Aisha, were in its territory. Aisha gave birth to a girl after crossing into Algeria. Two of Qaddafi’s sons and an unknown number of grandchildren also entered the country. Mohammed Qaddafi escaped after having his house surrounded by rebel forces. Hannibal Qaddafi is best known as a playboy who was arrested in Switzerland in 2008 for assault. He was later heard saying, “If I had an atom bomb, I would wipe Switzerland off the map.”

Click here to read the rest of my FPM article.

Reports from Libya this week indicate that the recently appointed rebel commander of the NATO-backed Tripoli Military Council is none other than Abdel Hakim Belhadj, a founding member of the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group (LIFG), an internationally designated terrorist organization.

The LIFG was established in the 90s by Libyan fighters returning from Afghanistan. According to a report from ABC News, the CIA first publically acknowledged its concern about the connection between LIFG and al-Qaeda in 2004 when then-director George Tenet told the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence that the LIFG was among groups that represented an “immediate threat” that “benefited from al-Qaeda links.”

In 2007, the US State Department reported on links between Ziyad Hashem, an alleged member of the LIFG’s media committee, and the Tunisian Islamist Serhane Ben Abdelmajid Fakhet, the suspected ringleader in the 2004 Madrid attacks.

While the current Libyan National Transitional Council (NTC) ambassador to the US, Ali Aujali, claims the LIFG was never connected to al-Qaeda and did not support terror tactics, al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahirir himself announced a formal alliance with the group in 2007. In his declaration, the then-deputy Zawahirir mentioned Belhadj personally, calling him “the Emir of the mujahideen, the patient and steadfast”.

Belhadji was arrested held numerous times internationally in 2004, first in Afghanistan and Malaysia, then later in Thailand where he was interrogated by the CIA before being sent to prison in Libya. According to a report from the Arabic daily Asharq Alawsat, Belhadj was among ten leaders of the LIFG who were released by the Qaddafi regime alongside 214 affiliates from other Islamist movements on March 23^rd, 2010. It adds that approximately 800 members of the LIFG are fighting under the current command of Belhadj in Libya.

When the LIFG/al-Qaeda alliance got behind the present revolt in Libya they reportedly changed their name to the slightly more neutral Libyan Islamic Movement. Despite their history of international terror and insurgency, NTC ambassador Aujali is urging observers to see Belhadj and his fighters in a new light; as supporters of a peaceful and democratic future Libya.

The U.S. believes it has killed Atiyah Abd al-Rahman, the second-in-command of Al Qaeda, in a drone strike in Waziristan, Pakistan on August 22. It is a painful loss for Al Qaeda, as his importance is arguably even greater than that of the group’s chief, Ayman al-Zawahiri. The Obama administration will cite his death as evidence that the “strategic defeat” of Al Qaeda is near.

There is no firm confirmation of Rahman’s death. A Pakistani intelligence official confirmed to The Independent that Rahman has been killed. However, a Taliban commander in Pakistan insists, “It’s a fake story. It’s not true.” A Pakistani official in Peshawar has expressed doubts, claiming that no informants in the area could substantiate the reports. Rahman has been falsely reported as having been killed before, but the U.S. appears confident that he has been taken out.

Rahman was one of five terrorist leaders that the U.S. told Pakistan would be unilaterally targeted if it did not locate them by July. David Ignatius argues that Rahman was the most important Al Qaeda figure because “whatever thread still held al-Qaeda together passed from bin Laden through to Rahman.” He is not believed to have dealt with the details of individual operations, but he did work with Bin Laden on the general planning for a spectacular attack on the U.S. for the tenth anniversary of 9/11. He was the overall leader for Al Qaeda in the Pakistani tribal regions, and handled communication between Osama Bin Laden and his commanders.

Click here to read the rest of my FPM article.

Unnamed American and Pakistani officials have confirmed Al-Qaeda operational planner and second-ranking commander, Atiyah Abd al-Rahman, was killed this week by a CIA drone attack, according to a report from the New York Times.

Intelligence officials claim electronic files recovered by Navy Seals from Osama Bin Laden’s Abbottabad hideout show Rahman was in frequent contact with the former al-Qaeda figurehead in the months leading up to the May 2 raid when he was killed. According to one official, “Atiyah was at the top of Al Qaeda’s trusted core. His combination of background, experience and abilities …  will not be easily replaced.”

In this way, Rahman will be remembered as a major organizer and representative of the Pakistan-based central al-Qaeda leadership to its affiliates. He is specifically credited with playing a key role in establishing ties between the core leadership and al-Qaeda in Iraq as well as the 2007 creation of al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM).

According to a report from Reuters, Rahman (a Libyan national from the coastal city of Misrata) was further seen as one of the first al-Qaeda leaders to urge the group’s supporters to cooperate with Arab Spring revolts – even when the uprisings were not Islamist-inspired. Noman Benotman, a former Libyan Islamist rebel who was part of a failed attempt to topple Qaddhafi in the 1990s and who now works as an analyst for the London-based Quilliam Foundation, recently called Rahman “The CEO of Al-Qaeda who was at the heart of the management process of Al-Qaeda worldwide.” Benotman  ventures that in the last two years Rahman “more or less single handedly” kept the core al-Qaeda network connected.

Rahman’s death is being billed by analysts as the latest in a series of crippling blows to al-Qaeda’s top ranks in recent months. Evidence from among the files captured in Abbottabad, has lead US officials to believe he and Bin Laden worked closely to broker a deal with Pakistan that would allow protection for al-Qaeda leadership in exchange for a halt of attacks on the country.  It remains unproven, however, if the agreement was ever ratified on the Pakistani side and to what degree Rahman’s location was known to them in the lead up to his death on August 22.

Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said Friday that a United Nations’ recognition of a Palestinian state was the “first step towards the liberation of the [whole of] Palestine.” He added there was “no room for Israel in the region.”

His comments came during Iran’s annual government-sponsored Al-Quds Day, which is held on the last Friday of Ramadan and draws large demonstrations typified by fierce criticism of the state of Israel.

Ahmadinejad has made some of his most notorious and inflammatory comments during Qud’s Day rallies, including a 2005 speech where he called for the destruction of Israel and a 2009 address where he called the Holocaust “a lie based on an improvable and mythical claim.” In 2010, Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei posted a Quds Day twitter message to Iranians calling Israel “A Hideous Entity In the Middle East Which Will Undoubtedly Be Annihilated.”

In light of the recent Palestinian push to achieve recognition at the United Nations’ General Assembly meeting scheduled for September, Ahmadinejad called Friday for rival Palestinian factions Hamas and Fatah to form a strong and unified state capable of opposing Israel, which he called an “axis of unity among all thieves and criminals of the world.”

These comments, however, follow a report from Reuters this week suggesting Iran has reduced and possibly halted its funding of Hamas after the group, which controls the Gaza strip and maintains its headquarters in Damascus, failed to show support for allied Syrian president Bashar al-Assad.

But reports from the Iranian government-funded and controlled Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA) have billed this year’s Quds Day -the first since the beginning of the precipitous Arab Spring uprisings- as a symbol of “the solidarity of the Islamic nations.” The timing of of Friday’s rallies have proven especially opportunistic for Tehran as signs of fraying relations between Israel and Egypt have been highlighted by both the erosion of security in Sinai and the flaring of violence in Gaza.

The Ground Zero Mosque controversy is reigniting as the tenth anniversary of 9/11 approaches, and new accusations against its chief financier adds to concerns about the money for the $100 million project. Those behind the Ground Zero Mosque have a history of shady financial dealings, and have not ruled out taking money from Saudi Arabia and Iran.

Allstate Insurance is suing Hisham Elzanaty, the Ground Zero Mosque’s top financial backer, for running a “highly developed and sophisticated kickback scheme.” He is alleged to have fraudulently set up medical facilities, despite not being a licensed professional. He then presented Allstate Insurance with inflated medical bills and engaged in illegal fee-splitting arrangements, it is claimed. He is being sued by Allstate for $5.1 million. State Farm and Geico separately sued Elzanaty this year for $1.9 and $1.7 million respectively on similar allegations of fraud.

Click here to read the rest of my FPM article.

Iran imprisoned three American hikers in July 2009 for crossing into the country, releasing one for health reasons in September after being paid a $500,000 bail. Now, the remaining two have been sentenced to eight years in prison for allegedly being American spies. There is speculation that they will be released at the end of Ramadan, which will be predictably touted by the regime as proof of its good will and mercy. If they are not, Iran must be warned that the U.S. will not look the other way as its innocent citizens are imprisoned.

The three victims are Josh Fattal, an environmental and health activist; Shane Bauer, a freelance journalist; and Sarah Shourd, an English teacher for Iraqi refugees in Damascus and Bauer’s fiancé. They are 28, 29 and 32 years old, respectively. These young adventurers are admirable citizens, seeking to make a career out of helping others around the world. In the summer of 2009, they took a trip together to Iraqi Kurdistan to go hiking and see the country’s beautiful mountainous region.

Click here to read the rest of my FPM article.

In February, four Americans were held for ransom by Somali pirates and executed. The pirates have the viciousness, skills and assets to bring havoc to the seas for a price, and Islamist terrorists are willing to pay. The U.S. commander for Africa predicts that Al-Qaeda will team up with the pirate gangs, as terrorist groups see maritime targets as a weak point for their enemies.

The U.S. commander overseeing Africa, General Carter Ham, confirms that the Al-Qaeda affiliate in Somalia, al-Shabaab, is making money from piracy off the coast of East Africa. He predicts that Al-Qaeda will directly become involved with the Somali pirates if the problem is not tackled. Pirate activity sharply increased in 2008, coinciding with advances by al-Shabaab. The partnership between the pirates and terrorists is usually not one of ideological affinity, but of business and sometimes, coercion. For example, in February, al-Shabaab members forced a group of pirates to give them 20 percent of what they earn from ransoms. “They demanded we allow six of their fighters to board each of our hijacked ships. We have not left our houses…Worse, we are constantly receiving threatening text messages,” one pirate said.

In April 2008, a group of Somali pirates got paid a $1.2 million ransom to let a Spanish fishing vessel and 26 hostages go free. Al-Shabaab received five percent of the payment. Predictably, such payments to the pirates encouraged them to continue their profitable practices. There have been dozens of hijackings, hostage-takings and raids since, appeasing the pirates and indirectly financing terrorists. In April 2009, former ambassador to Ethiopia and expert on East Africa, David H. Shinn, said that al-Shabaab sometimes receives a protection fee from the pirates of 5 to 10 percent. If the group trains the pirates, it earns 20 percent. If the Al-Qaeda affiliate finances the entire operation, the commission is as high as 50 percent.

Click here to read the rest of my FPM article.

Gaza-based terrorist groups attacked Israel for four days before deciding it was time for a “temporary ceasefire” on Monday, though rockets continued to fall. The Israelis limited their response, keenly aware that a conflict could play into the hands of Syria and further deteriorate relations with Egypt. Israel finds itself in a precarious position. It cannot afford to ignore the forces seeking its destruction, nor can it afford to try to crush them.

On August 18, eight Israelis were killed in Eilat in an attack that U.S. intelligence tentatively believes was the work of a new Al-Qaeda affiliate in Egypt named Al-Qaeda in the Sinai Peninsula. The Popular Resistance Committees helped out logistically, and the pro-Al-Qaeda Jaish al-Islam also had a role. Five of the attackers were killed out of a group of up to 24 operatives. After the attack, a statement from Al-Qaeda in the Sinai Peninsula was distributed that stated its goals: Create a Sharia state in the Sinai Peninsula, end unfair treatment of the Bedouins, and force Egypt to scrap the peace treaty with Israel and wage war on the side of Hamas.

Click here to read the rest of my FPM article.

Click the title of this post to see my “Fox & Friends” appearance this morning about the rebel takeover of Tripoli!

The speculation as to where Muammar Qaddafi has gone to is now focusing on two locations: His compound in Tripoli that is still being defended by regime loyalists and Sirte, which has tribal ties to Qaddafi and remains under the regime’s control.

A neighbor to the Tripoli compound had this to say:

“When I climb the stairs and look from the roof, I see nothing at Bab al-Aziziyah. It is totally deserted except for the house which was raided by U.S. in 1986. Nothing else is there. Qaddafi can’t be there,” he said. “NATO has demolished it all and nothing remained.”

Three SCUD-type missiles were fired from Sirte today, with NATO intercepting at least one of them. The Pentagon believes he remains in Libya, contradicting reports that he fled to Algeria. The city of Sabha is also under the regime’s control still as well.

The rebels have announced that they have captured al-Saadi Qaddafi, another one of his sons. However, Mohammed Qaddafi, who was previously trapped, has escaped. The bodies of Khamis al-Qaddafi, who led the feared Khamis Brigades, and intelligence chief Abdallah Senussi are believed to have been found.

Below is an excerpt from my latest FPM article. Please note previous post on fighting going on around Qaddafi’s compound, where he may be hiding.

The reign of Muammar Qaddafi has come to an end. That he was a cruel despot deserving of an unforgiving end is a given, but now a new chapter in Libya, rife with uncharted, ominous struggles has begun. Foremost among theses struggles will be preventing the ensuing anarchy and civil strife brought on by Qaddafi’s defeat from being utilized by Islamists to gain power and to establish a Sharia state. With the likes of Al-Qaeda, Hezbollah, Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood openly supporting the Libyan rebels, the danger is that the downfall of the proverbial devil we knew, Qaddafi, may yet unleash something far worse.

The International Criminal Court confirms that Saif al-Islam, Muammar Qaddafi’s likely heir, has been captured by the rebels. It is also confirmed that Mohammed Qaddafi, another one of the dictator’s sons, has been taken into custody. There are unconfirmed reports that Qaddafi himself had been arrested as he was preparing an escape to Tunisia, while other accounts claim he is in Algeria. It is incontestable that the rebels in Libya are victorious, no matter what the truth is.

The overthrow of Qaddafi came even quicker than the rebels expected. They originally pledged to defeat him by the end of August, and then a defector predicted victory within 10 days. Qaddafi’s loyalists failed to put up much of a fight in the western parts of Tripoli. Apparently, they recognized that defeat was inevitable, as the city faced offensives on three sides, and the strategic oil city of Zawiyah fell. The unit in charge of protecting Qaddafi surrendered, and the dictator offered to directly negotiate with the rebel leadership. The Green Square was soon swarmed by rebel supporters, bringing Qaddafi’s rule effectively to an end.

Click here to read the rest of my FPM article.

It’s safe to assume that earlier reports that Muammar Qaddafi was captured are incorrect. Like we warned, rumors like these can quickly spread in an environment of war. There is still fighting going on, and the rebels would not wait this long on an announcement when it could make the last holdouts give up. Foreign journalists are being held at the Rixos hotel and there are ongoing clashes around Qaddafi’s compound, where he may be.

South Africa is reportedly leading the negotiations with Qaddafi on finding a place of refuge for him, with Zimbabwe and Angola named as the most likely places (though there are some rumors that he fled to Algeria, but there are good reasons to doubt these). However, why would the rebels offer him any type of deal now as they are so close to victory? There is no reason to settle for anything less than his arrest and prosecution by the International Criminal Court.

As we reported tonight, there are unconfirmed reports (including one directly delivered to us) that Muammar Qaddafi has been captured as he prepared to escape to Tunisia. The delay of President Obama in making a statement supports these reports, but there are other contradictory accounts.

There are also rumors that Qaddafi is in Algeria. The Algerian government has been accused of backing the Qaddafi regime, apparently fearful that a successful revolution in Libya would spread to its own country.

At the same time, the various cable news programs are saying that there are still some snipers in Tripoli fighting on and that the compound that Qaddafi’s personal compound has not yet been seized.