World Threats

My friend in Libya, Susanne Tarkowski Tempelhof, reports “‎3 independent sources have confirmed Gaddafi’s capture by the Tunisian border!! Still need to wait and see for 100% confirmation….”

It is unclear if one of her sources is my original report, but that means between the two of us, there is a minimum of three sources reporting the same thing.

Al-Jazeera is also saying that “Reuters reports: US president Obama says he will make a statement on Libya when he has full confirmation on what is happening.”

Is he waiting until Qaddafi’s capture is verified to make a statement?

Let’s hope this isn’t a bad case of circular reporting…

There’s going to be lots of rumors flying around as Qaddafi’s rule comes to an end, but for what’s worth, a source that will remain anonymous is telling me that Muammar Qaddafi has been captured as he prepared to flee to Tunisia. According to the source, Saif al-Islam and Mohammed Qaddafi are in custody and will be transferred to The Hague tomorrow.

This report is based on a single source and there is no confirmation from a second source yet.

This is one of the most fascinating developments in the anti-Assad uprising and the Arab Spring as a whole. As we covered before, the Palestinians in Syria and the West Bank have turned on the Assad regime and seem suddenly aware of how their cause has been manipulated by it.

On August 17, a jihadist website reported that thousands of Palestinians from the Al-Yarmouk and Falastin refugee camps have joined the protests after the regime’s attacks on the Palestinians in Latakia. At the same time, the Hamas regime in the Gaza Strip is preventing anti-Assad demonstrations. A reporter was detained for covering the protesters, about 10 of which were arrested.

2011 is going into the history books in a big way.

Click the title of this post to see my first appearance on “Hannity” for the Great American Panel last night!

Part One:

Part Two:

Muslim Brotherhood affiliates like the Council on American-Islamic Relations, the Islamic Society of North America, and the Muslim American Society have cast themselves as the gatekeepers to the Muslim-American community. A new Gallup poll shows that the Brotherhood’s campaign to lead the Muslim-American community through these fronts has failed, as only a small minority feel represented by them.

The Abu Dhabi Gallup Center asked Muslim-Americans which group represented them, if any. The Council on American-Islamic Relations had the highest level of support, with 12 percent of men and 11 percent of women choosing it. The Islamic Society of North America came in second, with four and seven percent of men and women choosing it, respectively. The Muslim Public Affairs Council came in third, with six percent of men and one percent of women. The Islamic Circle of North America came in last, with 2 percent of men choosing it and less than one percent of women choosing it.

Altogether, that means only 24 percent of Muslim-American men and 19 percent of Muslim-American women feel represented by one of the above five Muslim Brotherhood fronts. Of these, a significant portion are likely unaware of their favored organization’s ties to the Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas. The ability of these groups to jointly mobilize this minority of Muslim-Americans in order to influence the political process, as well as the rest of the Muslim-American community, is not to be overlooked. However, the survey shows that a majority of Muslim-Americans do not look to the Brotherhood network for leadership, and it is susceptible to a challenge from within the community if enough resources are available.

Click here to read the rest of my PJM article.

When an enemy gives insight into his strategic thinking, it pays to listen. A Hezbollah member of Lebanon’s parliament, retired Brigadier-General Walid Sakariya, predicts that Israel will be destroyed by a “Shiite crescent” in a war with hundreds of thousands of deaths. This war, he says, can only commence once two things happen: Iraq is absorbed into Iran’s bloc after a U.S. withdrawal and the Syrian regime is saved.

Sakariya says that Iraq is blocking plans to destroy Israel by acting as a “buffer zone.” Once U.S. forces completely leave, Iraq will fall to the Iranian-Syrian-Hezbollah axis, permitting Iranian forces to march through its territory. A “Shiite crescent” is created, bringing together over 100 million people in a war against Israel, he explains. He recognizes the high cost of such a conflict, and predicts “hundreds of thousands” of “martyrs” and the use of nuclear weapons by Israel. To Sakariya, the prize of destroying Israel is worth that price. The war hasn’t started only because Iran’s bloc anticipates more permissible conditions.

Click here to read the rest of my FPM article.

As unlikely as it may seem, a U.N. report says that Al-Qaeda’s Somali affiliate, al-Shabaab, is being financed by the “Christian” dictator of Eritrea, Isaisas Afewerki. The report also implicates the regime in a massive bomb plot against the African Union in Ethiopia in January. Al-Shabaab has proven frighteningly effective in recruiting Americans, and any regime helping it must be immediately placed on the State Department’s list of State Sponsors of Terrorism.

The danger of Eritrea’s support for terrorism was laid bare in the U.N.’s report exposing that the regime attempted “mass casualty attacks against civilian targets” in January. The mayhem was to begin with the detonation of a car bomb at the African Union headquarters in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. At the same time, the largest market in Africa would be bombed, and the area between the Ethiopian Prime Minister’s office and the Sheraton Hotel where the African Union leaders stay would come under attack. One of the participants said he was told by his Eritrean superiors to make “Addis Ababa like Baghdad.”

Click here to read the rest of my FPM article.

On August 11, I mentioned in my FrontPage Magazine article that Palestinians within Syria have sided with the opposition and are calling for Assad to step down in the wake of his regime’s violence. They were particularly incensed at the regime’s attempts to manipulate them, and awareness of this represents (in my opinion) a major shift with long-term positive ramifications.

Now, MEMRI reports that hundreds of Palestinians in Ramallah have calling on Assad to resign, and the PLO Secretary-General is condemning the regime’s bombing of the refugee camp in Latakia that forced 5,000 Palestinians to flee.

Here’s the excerpt from my August 11 article about the Palestinians in Syria:

Remarkably, the Palestinians inside of Syria are siding with the protesters. On July 1, over 3,000 Palestinians in Hama took part in the protests. The regime’s Nakba Day provocations against Israel failed to generate a strong Palestinian reaction. One Palestinian from the Yarmouk camp said, “We will not accept to be a bargaining chip for the Syrian regime.” The regime tried to rally support by sending Ahmed Jibril, the leader of the PFLP-GC terrorist group, to condemn Israel at funerals in Yarmouk for killed protesters. The attendees threw rocks at him, and yelled at him not to take advantage of the Palestinian cause. The Palestinian protesters then attacked the PFLP-GC headquarters, and 11 were killed by the security forces.

Iran’s race towards a nuclear bomb is causing its Arab adversaries to contemplate building their own weapons, with Saudi Prince al-Faisal recently hinting that his country is considering the option. The Arab Spring has thrown a wildcard into the impending nuclear arms race, as it is uncertain who is coming to the forefront—and whose hands such capabilities will fall into.

In late June, Saudi Prince Turki al-Faisal, a former chief of Saudi intelligence,told NATO officials that Iran’s pursuit of nuclear weapons “would compel Saudi Arabia…to pursue policies which could lead to untold and possibly dramatic consequences.” Another official provided more specificity, saying “We cannot live in a situation where Iran has nuclear weapons and we don’t. It’s as simple as that.” Earlier this year, Prince al-Faisal said that the Gulf Cooperation Council must start “acquiring the nuclear might to face that of Iran.” The GCC includes Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, Oman, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates. Jordan and Morocco are set to become members as well, moving the GCC closer to a NATO-like alliance with the purpose of deterring Iran.

In 2008, King Abdullah privately told the U.S. that if Iran goes nuclear, “everyone in the region would do the same, including Saudi Arabia.” The Foreign Minister of the United Arab Emirates gave a similar warning in February 2009. The Saudis have been considering building nuclear capabilities for a long time. In 1999, a top member of the Saudi Royal Family visited a Pakistani uranium enrichment site, as did representatives from the United Arab Emirates separately. It has been long-rumored that the Saudis financed the Pakistani nuclear weapons program and provided discounted oil in exchange for a promise to be provided with weapons if requested.

Click here to read the rest of my FPM article.

Occasionally, I write on political matters not directly related to national security. Below is an excerpt from my article about this weekend’s changes in the GOP presidential race:

The race for the Republican presidential nomination was shaken up this weekend, with the late entry of Texas Governor Rick Perry and the exit of former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty after his disappointing third place finish in the Ames Straw Poll. There are debates scheduled for nearly every week starting next month, as the race kicks into high-gear after a long-delayed start.

Three-term Texas Governor Rick Perry stole some of the limelight from Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann by announcing his candidacy on the same day as her victory in the Ames Straw Poll.

He enters the race as a top-tier candidate alongside Bachmann and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, leaving the other candidates struggling for recognition. His main rival is Bachmann, as both compete to be the choice of social conservatives and the right-of-Romney vote. His main obstacle is the high expectations that sometimes kill the candidacies of late entrants like General Wesley Clark in 2003 and former Senator Fred Thompson in 2007. However, unlike those two examples, Perry is a powerhouse and has more campaigning experience…..

Click here to read the rest of my FPM article.

A recent defector from the Syrian army claimed that 4,000 soldiers defected in Damascus alone, and that hundreds were imprisoned for refusing to open fire on protesters. Defector and eyewitness testimony is sometimes exaggerated, either out of a desire to prove a point or because of the “fog of war.” A report by an opposition website provides substantiation for the accounts that the numbers of defectors are grossly underestimated.

From MEMRI:

According to a Syrian oppositionist website, over 22 thousand soldiers, including 7,000 officers, are incarcerated in Tadmor prison for refusing to shoot at demonstrators.

Source: Sooryoon.net, August 13, 2011

The situation between neighboring Turkey and Syria appears to have heated up. According to the Israeli news source Ha’aretz, Turkey has reportedly threatened to join in a NATO attack on Syria if dictator Bashar al-Assad will not stop his slaughter of civilians.

Arshet Hormozlo, an adviser to the Turkish president, made clear in an interview with the Iraqi newspaper “Zaman” that Turkey will not intervene militarily in Syria and will not allow international forces to enter Syria from Turkish territory.

However, Turkey’s consent to join an international coalition that may launch a military offensive against Syria is a dramatic turning point in Turkey’s stance. Hormozlo’s statement is proof that talks on military involvement have already reached the decision-making stage.

According to the article, Turkey would only help militarily if there is an international decision to attack. This would be unlikely, even as thousands of protesters are slaughtered.

Islamist organizations are hard at work creating Muslim enclaves in the West, including right here in the United States. These efforts are designed to create Islamic autonomous areas, often with the expressed desire of incrementally bringing the host country completely under Sharia-based governance. This campaign has not stopped or even slowed down since FrontPage Magazine and the Middle East Forum shined the light on it one year ago.

One group leading the effort to establish Islamist communities within the U.S. is As-Sabiqun, led by an extremist cleric named Imam Abdul Alim Musa. His list of heroes reads like a who’s-who of the jihadist world, from Hasan al-Banna toSayyid Qutb to Ayatollah Khomeini. He recently heaped praise upon Iranian President Ahmadinejad. In June 2002, he expressed support for suicide bombings in Israel. He preaches that the 9/11 attacks were a CIA/Mossad operation, says he “like[s]” Osama Bin Laden, supports Hezbollah, and describes Hamas as being “very nice people.” The As-Sabiqun Web site has a plan to create Sharia enclaves in the U.S. in stages, beginning with moving Muslims to one area and setting up independent social services.

Click here to read the rest of my FPM article.

Countries from around the world are finally rallying against Syrian dictatorBashar Assad, after 2,000 civilians have been killed and 25,000 detained since the uprising began. The U.S. will call on Assad to step down as early as Thursday, and the Turkish Foreign Minister is warning him that he could follow in the footsteps of Muammar Qaddafi. The Middle East now braces to see if Assad will fall and if he does, how much damage he will do on his way out and what will replace him.

This week, Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan said that he had “run out of patience” with Assad, and that the Foreign Minister would arrive in Damascus to deliver a “stern message.” Turkey “cannot remain a spectator” and the crisis in Syria is considered a “domestic matter,” he said. The Foreign Minister reportedly told Assad that he risked sharing the fate of Libyan dictator Muammar Qaddafi. The Turks told him to set a firm date for free elections, end the violence, free all political prisoners, and immediately begin sweeping democratic reforms.

The Turkish ambassador to Syria then went to Hama, as the U.S. and French ambassadors did last month. When the U.S. and French envoys arrived to stand with the protesters, they were greeted with cheers, flowers and olive branches. The Syrian tanks backed out of Hama as the Turkish ambassador arrived, only to re-enter as soon as he left. The Assad regime dismissed the Turks, and vowed to pursue the “terrorist groups” in the country. Erdogan gave a deadlineon August 10, saying he hopes that Assad will implement reforms within the next 10-15 days. The Turkish government also confirmed that it intercepted Iranian arms to Syria.

Click here to read the rest of my FPM article.

Turkey’s military has been the guardian of the country’s secular identity, making it the strongest challenger to the Islamist agenda of Prime Minister Erdogan and his ruling party. The government has asserted its authority over the military by arresting some of its top officials for allegedly planning a 2003 coup, prompting the top chiefs to resign in protest. The West can only watch as it incrementally loses one of its most important allies to Islamism.

The arrests of 22 more people for allegedly conspiring to destabilize the government, including generals, were the breaking point for the military leadership. The Chief of the General Staff, who resigned along with the commanders of the army, navy and air force, accused the Erdogan government of trying to make the military look like a criminal organization. The military has lost the trust of 15 percent of the population since 2008, though three-fourths say they still trust it.

The Turkish government has imprisoned 17 generals and admirals and almost 200 officers for supposedly orchestrating a coup in 2003. Among those arrested are top officials, such as the former commander of the 1^st Army and former leaders of the air force, navy and special forces. The government claims that the conspirators were going to bomb mosques, provoke war by tricking the Greeks into downing a military plane, and then use the chaos to seize control of the country. The Erdogan government denies that the prosecutions are politically-motivated. This latest rift brings the tension between the military and the government to a whole new level. One Turkish columnist said, “This is the symbolic moment where the first Turkish republic ends and the second republic begins.”

Click here to read the rest of my FPM article.