World Threats

The Pakistani military is accusing the U.S. of purposely killing its 24 soldiers on Saturday and Pakistani-American relations are, again, at a new low. It may be only a matter of time before Pakistani cooperation on counter-terrorism dwindles from little to nothing but the U.S. shouldn’t be blamed. The NATO airstrike, even if it was a case of misidentification, happened because Pakistan’s border posts allow terrorists to fire across the border.

The details of what happened on November 26 are sketchy, but it is known that U.S. and Afghan forces were attacked. Most reports say the attackers were the Taliban, while another says they belonged to a Salafi militia. The U.S. says it called the Pakistani military, which said it had no soldiers in the area. An airstrike was called in, which the Pakistanis say took place 300 yards inside their country and lasted for over an hour. It is suspected that NATO may have fallen for a Taliban ruse, and accidentally bombed a border post thinking it was a terrorist camp.

Click here to read the rest of my FPM article.

The main rationale of opponents of U.S. involvement in Libya is that Muammar Qaddafi was not a threat. After Saddam Hussein was found in a hole, Qaddafi finally decided to give up all of his WMD. The recent discovery of hundreds of artillery shells filled with liquid mustard agent, a deadly chemical weapon, dramatically changes what we know about the threat from Qaddafi.

Qaddafi’s secret chemical weapons stockpiles, which no one in the West knew existed, are thought to have been custom-made for the Libyan dictator by Iran. They were delivered over a period of years and not in one large shipment. According to one of Qaddafi’s commanders, the only reason they weren’t used is because Qaddafi’s forces were unable to reach them because of NATO airpower. The alliance did not realize it at the time, but its intervention almost certainly stopped a massacre with chemical weapons.

Click here to read the rest of my FSM article.

Libyan Islamist militia leader Abdulhakim Belhaj, the former leader of the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group, has just met with the leaders of the Free Syria Army in Istanbul, Turkey. Belhaj and his militiamen have had ties to Al-Qaeda (the current connection is debated) and is heavily backed by Qatar. He and his Islamist allies, particularly Sheikh Sallabi, are grappling with the Libyan secularists over the future of the country. Basically, Belhaj is not someone the West should be a fan of.

The Free Syria Army is mostly secular but without outside support, they will seriously consider help from Belhaj and his Islamist militiamen. It’s an alliance of convenience, but the West’s lack of support for the Free Syria Army will push them into the arms of Qatar, Belhaj and the Islamists out of necessity. And as that happens, the Islamists will benefit alongside the Free Syria Army and gain influence in its ranks.

The meeting between Belhaj and the Free Syria Army was supposed to happen in secret, but a rival militia arrested Belhaj at the airport for not having a valid passport. The Libyan interim government intervened to get him released.

According to The Telegraph, the Libyan government is offering to finance and arm the Free Syria Army and Belhaj is willing to send fighters to train its forces. It was reported on Saturday that four Libyans were arrested by the Assad regime as they crossed over from Turkey, indicating that Libyan fighters might already be trying to get in on the ground. The Free Syria Army denies rumors that “hundreds” of Libyans have already arrived.

Meanwhile, the Reform Party of Syria says that the death toll is much higher than the media estimates. It puts the number of dead at 4,492 as of November 17. These are only the confirmed deaths, so the number is probably above 5,000 now. The bloodiest area is Homs, where 1,586 were killed as of November 17, followed by Daraa with 780 and 569 in Idlib, which has been mentioned as potentially becoming Syria’s “Benghazi.” About 350 have been killed in Damascus.

The Israeli website, Debkafile, which (as I always say) is very hit-or-miss, claims that a coalition has established a joint command center in Turkey as preparations for military intervention in Syria reach an “advanced” stage. The coalition partners are Turkey, the U.S., France, Canada, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. The buffer zone (called a “humanitarian corridor) will include Idlib, Rastan, Homs and Aleppo. If this is true and Aleppo is taken away from the regime, then Assad will probably fall.

Civil war in Syria is starting to look like an almost guaranteed event.

On November 28, the opportunity that the Muslim Brotherhood has waited for since 1928 came. The first round of elections in Egypt took place, and although the results are not yet in, the Brotherhood’s mammoth political operation blew away its competitors. A Brotherhood spokesman was honest about what the group seeks: “The Sharia, the Muslim legal framework, must be the foundation for everything.”

The vote for the lower house of parliament took place in nine provinces. In districts where a candidate does not take a majority, there will be a run-off election on December 5-6. Two other rounds of voting will take place for a lower house among the remaining provinces, and then there will be three rounds to decide the upper house. The entire process will finish on March 11, ushering in an interim government that will draft the next constitution.

Click here to read the rest of my FPM article.

The first stage of Egypt’s complex electoral system kicked off earlier today in Alexandria and Cairo, as millions of Egyptians headed to the polls – many for the first time in their lives – in peace and shocking quiet. The only disturbances, as far as I can tell, was from anxious voters annoyed at the long wait.

Voting will continue through tomorrow and results will not be immediately available, but these results could indicate whether the Muslim Brotherhood (Freedom and Justice Party), or the liberals (Egyptian Bloc) will gain control when the military eventually leaves power, although most expect the islamists will perform well, perhaps to the point of gaining an absolute majority.

I am hoping to God we were all wrong about Egyptian politics and the liberals are able to gain control, but if the results out of Tunisia are any indicator – our one-time allies are likely to move away from us, and their peace treaty with Israel towards islamism and conflict.

We will see what happens, but for once the inhabitants along the Nile are selecting their own future.

Hezbollah just fired at least three rockets into northern Israel, which is a clear message from Iran and the terrorist group to back off of Syrian dictator Bashar Assad:

One rocket landed in Biranit, 700 meters from the Lebanese border. No damage or injuries were reported in the attack. Two additional rockets landed in the Western Galilee town of Netua , causing some damage to a chicken coop and a gas tank, but no injuries.

Police were searching for a possible fourth rocket in a wooded area near Kfar Vradim, just south of Ma’alot, also in the Western Galilee. Residents reported hearing an explosion in the area.

This is Iran’s way of saying that it will not tolerate any more pressure being put on Assad to quit. Hezbollah would not fire rockets into northern Israel without direct approval from Ali Khamenei. Iran is obviously aware of the joint command center in Iskendrun to prepare for intervention in Syria, especially after the Debkafile report broadcasted it to the world.

This is their first public reaction and a hint of things to come if the pressure on Assad does not stop.

Update: Hezbollah denies responsibility.

Yes, there actually is some good news. It is true that the party that received the most votes was the Islamist Justice and Development Party (PJD). This means the party gets to form a coalition in the parliament and nominate a Prime Minister. You can’t sugarcoat that part.

But, that doesn’t mean that the Islamists won a majority of the vote and that is hopeful. Look at the results.

Total seats up for grabs: 395.

PJD: 107.

Koutla bloc (secularist socialist alliance of 3 parties): 117.

Coalition for Democracy (eight liberal parties with ties to the monarchy): 160.

Altogether, the non-Islamists won 277 of the seats and the Islamist PJD won 107. The remaining 11 (some reports say 12, saying that the Coalition for Democracy only got 159) went to parties that do not belong to any of those three blocs. Regardless of their composition, the results show clearly that the Islamists are the minority in Morocco. Their success can be attributed to the divisions among the secularists that split their total among multiple parties.

This is also what happened in Tunisia, as I wrote here. The bottom line: The Islamists have not won the day.

Just two weeks after the “accidental” explosion at the Iranian Shahb-3 missile site that killed the regime’s top missile engineer (and at least 16 other IRGC members), there’s been another “accidental” explosion in Isfahan, where there is a uranium conversion site. There’s been so many “accidents” and suspicious murders in Iran targeting nuclear scientists, missile bases, centrifuge farms and gas pipelines in recent years, that it’s hard to keep track. But one thing is for sure: The pace of these “accidents” has sharply increased.

According to Haaretz, Iranian officials confirmed that there was an explosion in Isfahan, but then removed the news report after the Israeli press picked it up. They then issued a flurry of denials and conflicting accounts. One news agency said that the explosion happened at a gas station. The official stance of the regime is that no explosion happened and the Pentagon and IAEA say they did not detect one.

As for that November 12 explosion at the Iranian ballistic missile site (where some reports say is related to warhead development), new satellite photos show that the site was “effectively destroyed.” A very convenient accident, don’t you think?

The Institute for Science and International Security says that the explosion happened shortly after Iran made a breakthrough in its missile development, possibly related to its engine. The Israeli website Debkafile, which is very hit-or-miss, reported that the explosion happened as Iran was preparing to screw a warhead onto a missile.

Meanwhile, the director of Israel’s military-intelligence research department, summarized where Iran is at in nuclear weapons creation. He said that Iran has installed 8,000 centrifuges for uranium enrichment, about 6,000 of which are running. Iran has 50 tons of low-enriched uranium, including about 100 kg of uranium enriched to 20%.

He said that Iran needs 220kg of 20% enriched uranium that must then be further enriched to 90% to become the fuel for a nuclear bomb. So, according to his estimation, we still have some time, but not much. From what I’ve read, Israeli officials believe that Iran could get a nuke by mid-2012. This assumes that aren’t any further delays from “accidents.”

Some distressing news to bring to our readers. In Egypt, campaigning on the actual election day is illegal. That’s not stopping the Muslim Brotherhood from campaigning anyway. The Brotherhood reportedly has an excellent get-out-the-vote effort, which may land it the most seats in Parliament:

A few more notes on the Muslim Brotherhood’s impressive election day get-out-the-vote campaign: Shadi Hamid, the research director at the Brookings Institution in Doha, tweets that an activist told him each Muslim Brotherhood member was encouraged to bring 100 people to the polls.

And it appears that the Islamist group is conducting illegal campaigning across the election zones:

The Muslim Brotherhood, by far Egypt’s best-organised political party, planned to have representatives at every polling station today, ostensibly to explain the (somewhat complicated!) voting process. Shadi Hamid, the research director at the Brookings Institution in Doha, also tweeted that they would help guarantee security.

But a number of people are complaining that the Brotherhood representatives are also campaigning, which is illegal on election day.

Mahmoud Salem, a candidate running in Heliopolis on the Free Egyptians ticket (and perhaps better known as the blogger Sandmonkey), tweeted that Brotherhood representatives are handing out political flyers; he reported them to an army officer at the polling station, who did nothing.

Great. Just great.

The Muslim Brotherhood’s stated objective in the U.S. is to “wage a grand jihad in eliminating and destroying Western civilization from within and sabotaging its miserable house.” This is done through thinly-disguised front organizations with credentials as “moderates” that can win the affection of the media and officials. These fronts’ relationship with the government of the state of Illinois is a perfect example of this strategy’s success.

On August 30, Illinois Governor Pat Quinn announced who would serve on his newly-created Muslim American Advisory Council.  Among those chosen were Ahmed Rehab and Safaa Zarzour. The former is the National Strategic Communications Director of the Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR) and the Executive-Director of its Chicago chapter. The latter is the secretary-general of the Islamic Society of North America (ISNA) and is the chairman of CAIR-Chicago’s board. ISNA is listed in the Brotherhood’s own documents as one of “our organizations and the organizations of our friends.”

Click here to read the rest of my FPM article.

A gas pipeline from Egypt to the other parts of the Middle East has been hit with an explosion. The sabotage comes as Egyptians prepare to go to the polls today. This comes as the Muslim Brotherhood may do very well in these elections.

The explosion struck the pipeline west of al-Arish in Sinai, witnesses said. There was a second consecutive blast, about 100 meters away, sources said.

State news agency MENA said the explosion was in al-Sabeel area. Security forces and fire trucks raced to the scene.

Security sources said the explosions were detonated from a distance and that tracks from two vehicles were found in the area. No group has claimed responsibility for the attack.

Egypt is promising tighter security, but the attack is a bad precedent.

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Even as the White House is readying its exit from Afghanistan, there is still the urgent need to build the Afghan security forces. Involved in that task are ISAF trainers. Now with the withdrawal plan accelerated, NATO will need more:

Marine Gen. John R. Allen, who took command in Afghanistan last summer, wants 1,700 more military personnel — mid-level officers and senior enlisted troops leading hundreds of new advisor teams to be assigned beginning next year to Afghan units battling the Taliban insurgency, the officials said.

A similar approach worked in Iraq in 2007 and 2008. Hopefully there will be similar success here, but the situation is even more complicated.

Syrian dictator Bashar Assad can feel the noose around his neck tightening. France is now calling for a humanitarian corridor in Syria and multiple reports talk of a Turkish-Arab military action following an authorization from the Arab League. The U.S. is telling its citizens to immediately leave the country. War may be on the horizon.

On Thursday, the French Foreign Minister asked the Arab League to endorse a “secured zone to protect civilians” in Syria. France is also officially embracing the Syrian National Council, an umbrella of opposition groups and figures, as a legitimate body. Foreign Minister Alain Juppe played a game of semantics, saying France was not endorsing a military intervention for a “buffer zone,” while admitting that the proposed “secured zone” would need military protection to ensure the delivery of aid.

At the same time, Israeli officials expect Turkey to soon establish buffer zones within Syrian territory near the border to create a safe haven for civilians and military defectors. The Turks are already housing the leadership of the Free Syria Army that is waging an armed struggle against Assad. The Kuwaiti Al-Rai newspaper is being told by senior sources in Europe that the plan is for a no-fly zone to be enforced by Arab and possibly Turkish air power after the Arab League approves of it. The U.S. will be involved behind-the-scenes, offering logistical support but no direct participation. NATO has ruled out military action in Syria.

Click here to read the rest of my FPM article.