World Threats

On December 21, the New York Times published an article by reporter Scott Shane titled “In Islamic Law, Gingrich Sees Mortal Threat to U.S.” The article tried to subtlety discredit Gingrich and others talking about the Islamist agenda in the U.S., twice stating that “many scholars” feel the threat is being overblown and it is “roundly rejected” by most experts.

The Times opens up with some of Gingrich’s quotes, such as when he called Sharia a “mortal threat.”

“Stealth jihadis use political, cultural, societal, religious, intellectual tools; violent jihadis use violence. But in fact they’re both engaged in jihad, and they’re both seeking to impose the same end state, which is to replace Western civilization with a radical imposition of Shariah,” Gingrich says.

Gingrich’s warning is then characterized as a “much-disputed thesis in vogue with some conservative thinkers but roundly rejected by many American Muslims, scholars of Islam and counterterrorism officials.” Those warning about the Islamist threat within the U.S. are thus depicted as being part of a political fringe without credibility.

The article does quote anti-Islamist Muslim activist Dr. Zuhdi Jasser of the American-Islamic Forum for Democracy, who says he appreciates Gingrich’s stance, but this is the minimal level of balance required to stop the piece from turning into an op-ed. The rest of the quotes downplay the threat and ridicule Gingrich for making it an issue. There is no mention of the Muslim Brotherhoodor any of the reasons why the issue of Islamism has gained traction.

Click here to read the rest of my FPM article.

Rep. Ron Paul is now in first place in the Iowa caucus polls, second in New Hampshire and third nationally. This has prompted a former close aide of his, Eric Dondero, to speak out about the anti-Israeli views he expressed to him in private. The Paul campaign is ridiculing Dondero as a “disgruntled former staffer” and another aide, an Israeli, is defending Paul. A close examination of Paul’s books, newsletters and statements give credence to Dondero.

Dondero worked closely with Paul from 1987 to 2003. After he left, he nearly ran against Ron Paul but instead supported another candidate. Dondero claims that the presidential candidate is not anti-Semitic but “wishes the Israeli state did not exist at all.” Dr. Leon Hadar, a dual American-Israeli citizen who served as a foreign policy advisor to Paul during his 2008 presidential campaign, has risen to Paul’s defense. He says that Paul does not want to see Israel eliminated as a state, yet Paul praises an anti-Zionist group that envisions just that.

On page 317 of his book, “Liberty Defined,” Paul laments the influence of the Israeli government on America and the “apartheid conditions that Palestinians are subjected to.” He says that “Even newspapers in Israel are willing to discuss this issue openly, but it is essentially never permitted in the United States.” He praises J-Street for challenging “AIPAC’s monopoly control of the discussion” and Peace Now. He expresses his pleasure that an anti-Zionist group called the American Council for Judaism has growing support.

Click here to read the rest of my FPM article.

As North Korea prepares for Kim Jong-Il’s state funeral, speculation is growing over how effectively the ruling coterie of family and senior military officials can continue sharing power with successor-son Kim Jong-un. All eyes will be on Wednesday’s ceremony for clues about the cohesion of this leadership group, which includes the state’s senior most general, Ri Yong-ho, and the late Kim Jon-Il’s brother-in-law, Jan Song-thaek.

Central to North Korea’s future will be the degree to which China can continue to undermine Korean reunification. With nearly $7 trillion dollars in mineral wealth on the line, Bejing is hardly expected to support a new leader that would aim to increase economic and political ties with other nations.

Significant uncertainties, however, remain as there are signs North Korea could seek warmer relations with the South and possibly allow increased foreign investment. This week, former South Korean first lady Lee Hee-ho and Hyundai Group chairwoman Hyun Jeong-eun were received as South Korean representatives by North Korean leader Kin Jong-un.

While it’s anybody’s guess what the current government has planned, strategic planning consultancy Wikistrat has forecast three potential scenarios for North Korea’s future:

Best case: Slow liberalization-by-committee.  In this scenario, either Kim Jong-un or his uncle Jang Song-Thaek open North Korea to special economic zones, north and south, that let in, respectively, Chinese and South Korean direct investment. Over the years, the two neighbors achieve trustee-like control over North Korea that leverages China and South Korea’s financial heft. Meanwhile, North Korea opens up its doors and relaxes its economic and political constraints upon the population.

Middle path: More of the same.  In this scenario, the North Korean military steps back just enough to let Kim Jong-un’s generation wipe out the Old Guard over time, using the pretext of “foreign aggression” to stage the usual purges. As Beijing signs off, Kim Jong-un can prove he’s got the old man’s guts, successfully grab the reins of power and salute the generals with a reasserted “military first” policy. This way, China retains North Korea as a thorny prod to the U.S., which is committed to strategically “pivoting” to East Asia.

Worst case: A Chinese-backed military dictatorship. If things get really bad, Beijing might simply extract all the mineral wealth it can before turning over the carcass of North Korea to South Korea and the Americans for the super-costly rehabilitation.

For more, read Wikistrat’s special report for Fareed Zakaria’s GPS blog, at CNN.com

12. The Ron Paul Effect

No, I’m not calling Ron Paul anti-American, but his views on national security and naïve belief in the reasonableness of the Iranian regime do threaten our national security. Ron Paul’s eagerness for minimal government has led him and his supporters to reflexively embrace the argument that will excuse them from foreign action and bigger spending. In the last debate, Paul even claimed that there’s no evidence that Iran is seeking a nuclear weapon (false) and said terrorists only attack us because we’re the initial aggressors, claiming that terrorists don’t target neutral countries like Sweden and Switzerland (also false).

Ron Paul has a real chance of being the big story of the 2012 campaign for the Republican nomination and, if he runs as an Independent, the general election. His movement has the potential to influence politicians to embrace national security positions so irresponsible that they make President Obama look like Genghis Khan.

11. Sudan’s Sharia Transformation

Dictator Omar Bashir of Sudan vowed to turn his country into a 100% Sharia-based state after the secession of South Sudan. His government is already allied to Iran and allows the Revolutionary Guards to ship arms to Hamas through its territory. Bashir says he’ll make Arabic the official language and all legislation will be based on Sharia and only Sharia. Don’t be surprised if Sudan becomes the new Iran and its sponsorship of terrorism skyrockets.

10. Chaos in Europe

Civil strife will increase next year, and there are all sorts of extremists ready to riot, protest and incite. From anarchists to neo-Nazis to Islamists to anti-Muslim extremists to people who are just plain angry, there is no shortage of groups ready to bring about chaos to get their point across.

Greece, Sweden and France have suffered from huge riots in Muslim-majority areas, some of which have been dubbed “No Go Zones.” These riots showed us that it only takes a single match to be lit for a wildfire to spread and with Europe’s economic problems and social tensions, there are plenty to go around.

Click here to read the of my column at Family Security Matters!

Last week was the bloodiest in Syria since the uprising began, continuing through Monday. The arrival of Arab League observers, expected to appear in the war torn city of Homs Tuesday, did nothing to change the situation. Car bombs exploded outside government buildings, the regime’s security forces carried out a massacre, and clashes between defectors and Assad’s forces indicate the conflict is spiraling downwards. The outcome is of extreme concern to Israel, which sees an enemy in Assad but also an enemy in the Islamists among those protesting him. The Israeli leadership has taken a stand: It wants Assad to fall.

It has been repeatedly stated that Israel would prefer the secular dictatorship of Bashar Assad stay in power than collapse, potentially throwing the country into civil war and precipitating an Islamist takeover. The Israeli ambassador to the U.S., Michael Oren, wrote a letter to the Wall Street Journal to correct its coverage of Israel’s stance.

“Allied with Iran, Mr. Assad has helped supply 55,000 rockets to Hezbollah and 10,000 to Hamas, very likely established a clandestine nuclear arms program…[Assad] confirms Israel’s fears that the devil we know in Syria is worse than the devil we don’t,” Oren wrote. In April, President Peres said, “I believe finally that a democratic system in Syria is our best bet for the future.”

Click here to read the rest of my FPM article.

African-based terrorist group, Boko Haram, according to a report by the U.S. Representatives Subcommittee on Counter-Terrorism and Intelligence, has quickly evolved and poses an emerging threat to the U.S. The report reveals that Boko Haram “has the intent and may be developing capability to coordinate on a rhetorical and operational level” with al Qaeda. The report emphasizes that heed should be taken in view of the group’s rapid progression.

As was the case with al Shabaab, though Boko Haram’s activities have largely been confined to African countries, the group’s size and scale of operations should not lead the West into a false sense of security. Both al Qaeda and the Taliban, as newly formed groups, were viewed by the intelligence community as regionally focused and therefore not a threat to the West.

Boko Haram, which literally means “Western education is forbidden,” uses as its official name “Jama’atul Alhul Sunnah Lidda’wati wal Jihad” and that is translated to mean “people committed to the propagation of the Prophet’s teachings and jihad.” Interestingly enough, when founded, in the mid-1990s, violence wasn’t part of Boko Haram’s vision. It was not, in fact, until Mohammed Yusuf, a Nigerian civil service employee took over at the helm of the group. At this point, they began referring to themselves as the Nigerian Taliban. Adopting a rustic lifestyle, they established a camp in a remote area of the northeast part of the country.

Over the past couple of years, however, a significant surge in the frequency and level of violence of Boko Haram attacks has occurred. Aside from the recent Christmas bombings, another example of this was seen on August 26, 2011 when a suicide bomber drove a vehicle borne improvised explosive device (VBIED) into the U.N. headquarters in Abuja, Nigeria. The attack left 23 dead and more than 80 others injured. Responsibility for the bombing, which was one of the deadliest in the U.N’s history, was claimed by Boko Haram. While this attack occurred within Nigerian borders, it was the first time Boko Haram had targeted an international, non-Nigerian entity.

Indeed, Boko Haram has experienced rapid advancement since the days of launching attacks with a few sticks of dynamite. And, it has been an unusually swift progression.

The findings and recommendations, regarding Boko Haram, compiled by the U.S Representatives Subcommittee on Counterterrorism can be found here.

On December 15, Israel bombed a convoy in Sudan as it approached Egypt that was delivering weapons to Hamas for Iran. The Sudanese media said another unreported strike on a convoy took place in early December.

The strikes, carried out by jets, aircraft and possibly even a submarine, took place on the Red Sea District of eastern Sudan, specifically Abu Thabaq. According to one report, two Apaches landed on a Sudanese island with a radar station but were undetected. That’s embarrassing for the Bashir regime to say the least. At least four people (presumably terrorists) died and six Land Cruiser jeeps. The earlier attack destroyed at least one truck in Sudan near Egypt.

This is not unprecedented. Israel reportedly bombed a vehicle near Port Sudan earlier this year, and in 2009, there was a large strike on about 20 convoys in Sudan. There have been reports of additional strikes, but as you might expect in a covert operation, details are scarce.

I’d expect these strikes to increase, as Omar Bashir has promised to turn his control into a full-blown Islamist state where Arabic is the official language and Sharia is the only source of legislation. I’ve also noticed that the talk we heard of the U.S. delisting Sudan as a State Sponsor of Terrorism isn’t around anymore. This is a good thing, as Sudan’s sponsorship of Hamas and radical Islam as a whole should not be overlooked.

On a humorous note: I saw one message board posting reacting to this news that said, “Israel believes it is better to give than to receive.”

On Christmas, I was on FOX News Channel to discuss the “Cupcake Terror Incident” where the frosting on a cupcake was deemed by a TSA agent as a gel-like substance prohibited from being onboard an airliner. Later in that day, I did a Skype interview with NY Channel 11 on the same topic. Who ever thought that a cupcake terror threat is what would get me on TV twice in one day?

Click here to read the news report quoting. The TV version video of the report is at the top.

Hezbollah used to rake in the cash, but with Iran and Syria suffering economically, the terrorist group can no longer live the high life. French intelligence says that Iran recently cut its funding to Hezbollah by 25%. In December 2010, a year ago, the budget was slashed by a whopping 40%.

Corruption is also contributing to Hezbollah’s financial woes. Two weeks ago, Hassan Nasrallah said that female officials were responsible for overspending. A French newspaper says that Hezbollah’s investment manager has embezzled nearly $1.6 billion.

According to the French, Hezbollah is trying to make up for the shortfall by selling more drugs in north Lebanon and presumably, elsewhere, like Mexico and even the U.S. The U.S. government recently charged 30 used car dealers and various Lebanese banks and currency exchange companies with being a part of a Hezbollah criminal conspiracy.

Terrorists have long sold and shipped used cars as way of laundering money and raising big bucks. In this case, Hezbollah’s drug money was being used to buy used cars at auctions in Florida. The vehicle would then be shipped to a Free Trade Port involved in the scheme and sell, for example, a SUV that cost $15,000 for $30,000. The $15,000 originally used to buy the car was recouped, plus another $13,000 from just one sale and shipment. And there were 30 used car dealers involved so you’re looking at an enormous amount of income.

As private investigator Bill Warner said in the above link, if you count on each dealer selling 10 cars a month, that’s nearly $4 million per month in profit plus the $4.5 million earned per month from the drug money.

Groups like Hezbollah are just as much mafias as they are terrorist groups and this story proves it.

The Treasury Department earlier revealed the existence of a “secret deal” between the Iranian regime and Al-Qaeda to permit the passage of arms, money and personnel through Iran to Pakistan. Now, the administration is offering $10 million for information leading to the arrest or killing of a senior Al-Qaeda leader named Yasin al-Suri in Iran.

The State Department flatly states, “Iranian authorities maintain a relationship with al-Suri and have permitted him to operate within Iran’s borders since 2005.” He is an “important fundraiser” for the terrorist group, delivering money from the Gulf to Al-Qaeda in Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan. He also negotiates with Iran for the release of Al-Qaeda terrorists.

The Long War Journal adds that Pakistani intelligence believes al-Suri is in Zahedan, Iran, where an Al-Qaeda network has been reported for a long time.  LWJ explains that an Al-Qaeda terrorist referred to as “Inayatullah” told his interrogators that he was the group’s “Emir of Zahedan” and that he oversaw the movement of operatives through Iran. This means that Inayatullah is almost certainly a close associate of al-Suri’s.

Here’s why that is important. Inayatullah worked with other senior terrorists that participated in the 7/7 bombings in London in 2005 and the foiled 2006 operation to destroy British airliners flying out of Heathrow Airport. This doesn’t establish a direct Iranian link to these plots but given Iran’s participation in other Al-Qaeda terrorist attacks, the potential involvement of a senior Al-Qaeda leader based in Iran with a known relationship with the regime is significant.

Click the title to see my segment on Fox & Friends this AM.

In recent weeks, Defense Secretary Panetta (and several other officials before him) publicly warned of how horrible a U.S. or Israeli strike on Iran would be and that it would only delay their nuclear ambitions by 1-2 years. If you’re a mullah in Iran, you’re going to interpret that as a sign that the military option has been taken off the table.

Panetta has done the right thing now and on December 20, said that the U.S. would use military force if necessary to stop Iran from getting a nuclear bomb. He said it would be about a year before Iran gets the bomb, “perhaps a little less,” but that if Iran is operating a hidden enrichment facility that we don’t know about, it could happen within a year.

The reporter asked him about a possible strike and he said, “That’s a red line for us and that’s a red line, obviously, for the Israelis. If we have to do it, we will deal with it.” He was then asked if “it” meant military action and he replied, “There are no options off the table. A nuclear weapon in Iran is unacceptable.”

Stronger language is needed. A cocky Iranian official could still find some comfort in that statement. Panetta didn’t specifically say military force would be used to stop Iran, only saying that it would be “unacceptable” and a “red line” that “we will deal with.” Even saying the words, “We will deal with it,” makes it sound as if that’s a strategy against Iran after it gets the bomb.

If the U.S. actually is determined to stop Iran from getting the bomb and isn’t bluffing, then Iran needs to be specifically told that military action will take place as a last resort if nothing else stops them from getting the bomb. Anything less will look like the U.S. is making wiggle room so it can excuse itself from action.

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Two blogs, Vled Tapes and Grendel Report, have worked together to provide translated recordings of senior Muslim Brotherhood officials in Egypt publicly reciting the verse of the Hadith that states that Muslims must fight Jews “until the rocks and the trees will say, ‘O slave of Allah, o Muslim, this is a Jew behind me, come and kill him” during a November 25 conference.

Non-Islamist Muslims might interpret the verse differently, but it is clear from the recordings that the two Brotherhood leaders (including one member of the Guidance Bureau) were preaching anti-Semitic jihad.

TranslatingJihad.com shows that a November 24 statement by the International Union of Muslim Scholars (which is part of the Brotherhood) also calls of the Ummah to “suspend all peace treaties [with Israel],” “withdraw from the Arab peace initiative,” “support the resistance with all available resources” (that means terrorism), and “Let the Zionists know that every stone, even one atom of al-Aqsa (which is disturbed) will be met with heavy bloodshed.”

It also says “calls on the entire Ummah to revive the duty of jihad in all its forms, and prepare for the hour of victory and the liberation of al-Aqsa, al-Quds (Jerusalem), and Palestine from the Zionist enemies.”

That is an unequivocal, full-blown declaration of war. And this isn’t from some fringe element in Muslim society. The IUMS statement is signed by its leader, Sheikh Yousef al-Qaradawi, the most influential Sunni preacher.

On December 22, the Iranian regime claimed that its oil depot in Abadan was struck by a rocket, injuring 3. The Iranians claim that U.S. and British aircraft repeatedly entered the airspace and that the rocket is American. Obviously, there is no reason to believe Iran’s words as the government reflectively blames everything on its external enemies.

I doubt that the regime made up the story altogether. Most likely, an explosion happened at the depot and get ahead of the story, putting their own spin on what happened. The regime also claimed that two rockets landed in Manyuhi, a village near the Iraqi border. Both of these locations are in Khuzestan Province, which is populated by Arabs. This could mean that the restive minority here, which frequently engages in clashes with the regime, is responsible. Or, of course, that might be exactly what the real attackers want us to think. It should also be mentioned that workers at the refinery have gone on strike over unpaid wages.

The attack on the Abadan refinery came about two weeks after the regime said it would invest $800 million to increase gasoline production at the site by about 12,500 barrels per day by the end of next month. It also has decided to spend $3 billion to upgrade the refinery. It looks like that made someone a tad bit unhappy.