World Threats

It’s safe to say that Syria is in a state of civil war. This was the bloodiest week since the uprising began, with hundreds of people dying.

On Monday, 70 soldiers tried to escape their base and were gunned down in the process. As far as I know, this number is unprecedented. I’ve seen reports of a few leaving here and there. One report said about a dozen left at once from one unit. The fact that 70 decided to ditch the regime together is pretty significant and it means that the pace of defections is increasing quickly.

Altogether, over 120 defectors died on Monday, according to Ammar Abdulhamid, an opposition activist.

On Tuesday, there were more defections and clashes in Idlib, leaving 80 defectors and members of the Free Syria Army dead. A total of 182 people died that day, with up to 100 in Idlib Province. Fourteen of the regime’s loyalists were killed in an ambush in Daraa.

On Wednesday, the regime carried out an “organized massacre” (in the words of one activist) of the Kfar Owaid village in northwest Syria (Idlib again), about 30 miles from Turkey. The area was surrounded and bombarded with rockets and gunfire, killing at least 111 people. According to one report, the regime used bombs with nails.

On Friday, two car bombs ripped through two security services’ headquarters in Damascus, killing at least 44, one day after the Arab League humanitarian monitors arrived. Predictably, the regime immediately blamed Al-Qaeda, saying it proved that the regime is fighting terrorists. One official of the Syrian National Council accused the regime of staging the attack, noting how hard it would be for a car bomb to get through security in that area.

At one of the funerals today, a state-sanctioned imam said that Burhan Ghalioun, the secular leader of the SNC, was responsible. The Free Syria Army and Syrian Muslim Brotherhood denied responsibility. Interestingly, a website meant to look like that of the Syrian MB popped up to claim the attacks, which is probably a trick by the regime.

There is increasing evidence that the Free Syria Army is accepting the aid of jihadists, even though its rank-and-file is secular. When your friends and family are being slaughtered and the West won’t help you at all, you’ll take help from wherever it comes.

On December 17, Daniel Iriarte reported that he met three Libyans when he visited the FSA. The first was al-Mahdi Hatari, a former high-level commander under Abdel Hakim Belhaj, the leader of the Al-Qaeda-tied Libyan Islamic Fighting Group. The second was Kikli Adem, a current lieutenant serving under Belhaj and a third Libyan whose real name is not known. This proves reports that the Libyan Islamists have been sending fighters into Syria, with some saying that as many as 600 have been dispatched.

Meanwhile, Iran is doubling down on its support for Assad. The regime has activated an air bridge to Damascus using commercial airliners as a cover. According to Fox, there are seven flights per week and transport legit passengers who do not know that their aircraft is packed with weapons. The good news is the reason for the air bridge: Assad’s forces are running low on guns and ammunition.

Cuban, Iranian and Venezuelan officials have been caught actively considering cyber attacks on the U.S., including ones that would be “worse than the World Trade Center.” In the frightening documentary, the U.S.-based Spanish languageUnivision also exposes subversive operations by Iran in Latin America.

The undercover operation began after a former computers instructor at Mexico’s National Autonomous University was recruited by another professor in 2006 for a cyber terror plot requested by the Cuban embassy in Mexico City. The instructor, Juan Carlos Munoz Ledo, turned the tables on the Cuban government and later, its Iranian and Venezuelan allies. He said he’d go along with the plot and get some students involved to carry it out. In reality, he and his partners were starting a seven-month investigation that would expose the evils contemplated by these governments against the U.S.

Click here to read the rest of my FPM article.

Two blasts have hit the Syrian capital of Damascus, killing approximately 30. That is, if the state-run media is to be believed. The two bombings took place outside of a government security building just as Arab League observers arrived in the country.

State TV said several soldiers and a large number of civilians were killed in two attacks “carried about by suicide bombers driving vehicles packed with explosives against bases of State Security [General Security Directorate] and another branch of the security services” in the upmarket Kfar Sousa district, south-west of the city centre.

The Syrian government is blaming al Qaeda, just as it blamed the group for a ‘terrorist’ attack on the American embassy in Damascus in 2006. Their condolences about the attack:

“It is regrettable that U.S. policies in the Middle East have fueled extremism, terrorism and anti-U.S. sentiment,” the Syrian Embassy in Washington said in a statement. “The U.S. should … start looking at the root causes of terrorism and broker a comprehensive peace in the Middle East.”

Chances are it’s not al Qaeda, which was helped for years by the Assad regime in attacking targets in Iraq. It could be the Muslim Brotherhood, but this also appears unlikely considering their lack of recent attacks. That leaves two options left:

1. The opposition believes that Assad’s dictatorship launched the attack itself to cause civilian casualties and blame it on the opposition. This certainly is a significant possibility.
2. The opposition launched the attack on the security building, mainly killing military or intelligence personnel. It may seem that the opposition would want to take credit for such an attack, but if any civilians were killed, they would not want such publicity. In addition, the regime would not want to accept such an attack publicly because it shows increasing strength and coordination among the rebels.

So it’s not immediately clear who actually launched the attack, but expect more to come.

A wave of 16 coordinated bombings ripped across Baghdad today killing an estimated 70 people, USA Today reports. The blast targeted mostly Shia neighbourhoods, though provisional reports suggest some Sunni districts were also hit.

While there has been no official claim of responsibility, the bombings bear tactical semblance to those popularized by Qaeda-linked Sunni militants. In total, 11 neighbourhoods were hit, most by car bombs and roadside detonations, with at least one suicide attack reported.

While analysts debate whether or not the planning for this highly-coordinated assault was intended to coincide, primarily, with American’s troop withdraw, the violence comes as Iraq’s notoriously fragmented national parliament faces a renewed political stalemate.

To read more analysis on the escalating sectarian divide threatening post-US Iraq, read my article at the Atlantic Sentinel.

The killing of Osama Bin Laden in May brought a sense of resolution to Americans, but a ruling by a federal judge shows justice has not been delivered. In a decision that should forever change the story of 9/11 and the West’s Middle East policy, Judge George Daniels has just ruled that Iran and Hezbollah are responsible for 9/11.

Judge Daniels concluded that 9/11 happened because of Iran and Hezbollah’s direct support for the plotters, especially the hijackers, and probably would not have happened without it. The evidence presented in court goes even further, strongly indicating that 9/11 was a joint operation between Al-Qaeda and the Iranian regime. It took over 10 years after 9/11 for Iran’s covert involvement to be exposed, a frightening testament to the ineptitude of our intelligence community and the experts who assured us that Iran would never work with Bin Laden’s terrorist group or directly target the U.S.

Eight law firms acting under the leadership of Thomas E. Mellon presented reams of publicly-available information and over 25 hours of testimony from three Iranian intelligence defectors, whose accounts were deemed credible by Judge Daniels. The three defectors provided first-hand information to prove the culpability of Iran and Hezbollah.

Click here to read the rest of my FSM column.

Today, the Christian Post published an article today mentioning my participation in a visit yesterday to the Iraqi Mission in NYC alongside various Jewish and Christian leaders. I was sent there on behalf of Reverend Robert Stearns whose Eagles Wings Ministry awarded me a full scholarship in 2009 for an intense three-week trip to Israel.

Our goal was to pressure the Iraqi government into better protecting its Christian minority, which has fallen from 1.4 million to 500,000 since 2003. We are also calling on Christians to ask their pastors and priests to include a prayer for them in their Christmas services, since they are in increasing danger now that U.S. forces have left and sectarian tension and violence is again increasing. The Christian Action Network, among many other organizations and leaders, have endorsed the call.

Here is an excerpt from the article:

Also in attendance were Ryan Mauro, representing Eagles Wings Ministry and Gwendolen Cates, a Christian documentarian working on a feature film about Iraq’ religious minorities.

“The stories of what the Iraqi Christians go through should make it impossible for us to remain silent. All Christians are obligated to pray for their safety and to ask their church leaders to include a prayer for them during the holiday services,” Robert Stearns, founder and executive director of Eagles Wings Ministry, based in Buffalo, N.Y., said in a statement.

Iraq is facing renewed sectarian tension just as U.S. forces finishing leaving the country. On Monday, the Iraqi government issued an arrest warrant and travel ban on Vice President Tariq al-Hashemi, a Sunni. At the same time, Prime Minister al-Maliki, a Shiite, is calling for the firing of Vice Prime Minister Saleh Mutlak, a Sunni. To make matters worse, Moqtada al-Sadr says he will revive his Iranian-backed Shiite militia in 2012 if any American personnel, including civilians, remain. His forces have much Sunni blood on their hands.

The Iraqi government claims that Vice President Hashemi is involved in terrorism, an accusation he says is politically motivated and comes from Maliki. It is claimedthat he has a hit squad to kill Shiite officials, including Maliki. Three of his bodyguards were arrested and 13 detained. Their testimony incriminating Hashemi was aired on television. Hashemi’s supporters believe their testimony was coerced.

Click here to read the rest of my FPM article.

On December 17, North Korean dictator Kim Jong-Il died. The state pressannounced that his youngest son, Kim Jong-Un, is the “great successor.” There’s a clear pattern where each step towards succession is accompanied with a provocation, reflecting the regime’s belief that its ills can be cured through conflict. At only 27 or 28 years old, Kim Jong-Un is out to prove himself, and the short-range missile test that followed his official takeover isn’t going to cut it.

Kim Jong-Un is largely a mystery. He wasn’t even formally mentioned in North Korea’s state press until October 2010. His age, mother and marital status aren’t even known. It is reported that British intelligence assess that he has an “explosive temper” and suffers from severe hypertension, giving little hope that his mental state is any better than his father’s.

In October 2010, he was given the rank of a four-star general, even though he has no military experience whatsoever. His young age, lack of experience and the decreasing support of the North Korean army and population make it difficult for Kim Jong-Un to ensure the stability of the regime. A cable published by Wikileaks reveals that the top national security advisor to the South Korean president believes the regime will collapse within 2 to 3 years after Kim Jong-Il’s death.

Click here to read the rest of my FPM article.

In less than 12 hours after the announcement of North Korean dictator Kim Jong Il’s death, the North has taken to provocative action. The communist state has launched a short range missile test, seemingly to ward off any action by South Korea or her allies.

This action is making an already tense situation even more so. Still, it’s a pretty clear sign of desperation.

A short-range missile test that North Korea conducted Monday – reported earlier by South Korean media – was not a surprise and is not of particular concern, Dempsey said. South Korean media have reported that South Korean government officials do not believe the test was related to Kim Jong Il’s death.

In September, Undersecretary of Defense for Intelligence Michael G. Vickers saidthat Al-Qaeda will fragment within 18-24 months if its leaders keep being taken out at this rate. Defense Secretary Panetta talks of “strategically defeating” the group if another 10-20 leaders are removed. Some officials are now taking it even further, claiming that only two leaders need to be killed or captured to neuter the group. Al-Qaeda has undoubtedly taking many serious blows this year, but it is too early to rule out its comeback.

There is much reason for jubilation over Al-Qaeda’s woes. Osama Bin Ladenwas killed in May, followed by the “commando commander” Ilyas Kashmiri and the chief of East Africa operations, Fazul Abdul Muhammed. The new second-in-command, Atiyah Abd al-Rahman was later killed, as were Anwar al-Awlaki and Samir Khan. A number of other senior members that are less well-known also met their end. Al-Qaeda’s affiliate in Somalia, Al-Shabaab, has been kicked outof Mogadishu.

However, it is too optimistic to say that only two leaders, Ayman al-Zawahiri and Abu Yahya al-Libi, need to be killed or arrested to finish the group off. The Long War Journal has a list of 26 important Al-Qaeda officials in Pakistan alone. It does not even include the leadership in North Africa, Somalia, Yemen, Iraq, Iran and the other Gulf countries.

Click here to read the rest of my FPM article.

Federal prosecutor, W. Anders Folk, advises the U.S. to take al Shabaab’s threats to target the U.S. seriously. Folk stressed the fact that the terrorist groups Al Shabaab, al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and the greater al Qaeda organization embrace a common ideology – a deep seated aversion for the U.S. Folk goes on to add that the terrorist group’s ideology “is almost word for word similar to what we heard from al-Qaida pre-9/11 and what we have heard post-9/11. What we hear is an ideology that endorses murder of innocent civilians. We see al-Shabaab training their recruits in tactics and techniques similar to what recruits learn in Afghanistan and Pakistan.” Read the rest of this entry »

Iran’s shortage of raw uranium has forced it to look for foreign suppliers like Zimbabwe, Venezuela, Kazakhstan, North Korea and Burma. One of my followers on Twitter suggested that I add Namibia to that list.

Iranian and Namibian officials have been meeting to discuss economic cooperation, especially in the area of oil and development of a natural gas field. Iran is openly talking about investing in Namibian uranium mining.

The astute reader also sent me this article that mentions a team of Iranians being sent to Namibia for “mine exploration.” It notes that Iran “holds [a] 15% share of [the] Namibian Rossing Uranium Mine and the mine possesses 7% of the uranium produced in the world.” Overall, the African country is the fourth largest producer of uranium, accounting for 10% of the world’s supply.

We previously talked about the discovery of hundreds of artillery shells filled with liquid mustard agent, a deadly chemical weapon, here. It is believed these were made by Iran specifically for Qaddafi and were delivered in stages. As I wrote, one of Qaddafi’s commanders explained that NATO’s airpower prevented his forces from using the chemical weapons. There were/are a lot who disagree with our intervention in Libya (I’m not one of them) and the fact that we stopped a massacre with WMD should cause them reconsider their position.

The invaluable Middle East Media Research Institute has translated this video of the WMD finds, showing that Qaddafi was hiding much more than just artillery shells. Click the link to watch the video.

The footage comes from Libya’s Defense Ministry and was aired in the United Arab Emirates on December 11. It shows that tanks of mustard and nerve gases were found near the city of Sokna and the Al-Rawagha regions in southern Libya. Each barrel holds up to 10,000 liters of chemical weapons agent, the official says in the footage. A plant for chemical weapons production along with a “huge amount” of basic WMD components were also found, as were underground stockpiles of missiles and “ammunition” (presumably the artillery shells).

We’ve repeatedly pointed out that the Islamists won in Tunisia and Morocco because the secularists were divided and split their base’s vote. This doesn’t hold true in Egypt, where the Islamists won the majority of the vote, but the fact remains they’d be in a much stronger position if they had coordinated their campaigns. Unfortunately, only now do they realize this.

The Egyptian Bloc, Wafd, and other secularists are now coordinating so they don’t compete against each other in some districts, handing victories to the Islamists they otherwise would not have. This cooperation, however, is still limited. As the report mentions, some anti-Islamist organizations have been pressuring the secularists to fully cooperate, casting only one candidate in each district in future rounds. The secularist parties have not agreed.

I have hope that, over the long term, the secularists can overcome the Islamists and make them a minority voice. But this will only happen once the secularists get their act together.