World Threats

India has announced, despite the European Union and United States increasing sanctions on the Iranian regime, that they will continue, along with China, to import oil from the belligerent Persians, who have threatened to shut down the Straits of Hormuz, and are moving towards obtaining a nuclear weapon.

Their reasons are supposedly based on economics, but Europe’s going to take a massive hit for uniting with America on this very important issue, so do they prefer cheap oil to a nuclear armed Iran gunning for war with Israel? Apparently so, and they didn’t support the Western world when we went to war in Libya, either.

I don’t understand the Indians on this. Are they trying to remain neutral with potentially the greatest threat to mankind right now for the continuing sale of cheap oil? I hope not, considering they might secure a seat on the U.N. Security Council one day and could use that position to veto action against Iran someday to benefit their own needs.

The Obama administration is redefining the War on Terrorism as a war on Al-Qaeda, with Vice President Biden going so far as to say that the “Taliban, per se, is not our enemy.” In June, Afghan President Hamid Karzai confirmed that the U.S. was negotiating with the Taliban, and talks have reportedly gone on since at least November 2010. Now, President Obama is even thinking about releasing five high-level Taliban leaders to Qatar from Guantanamo Bay, despite their direct ties with Al-Qaeda and the military’s warnings that they are likely to rejoin the violent jihad.

Marc Thiessen reviewed the biographies of the five Taliban leaders that the U.S. may set free. Mullah Mohammed Fazl was the chief of staff of the Taliban army and worked with Osama Bin Laden’s 055 Brigade. Abdul Haq Wasiq, the Taliban’s deputy intelligence minister, built alliances with terrorist groups and arranged for Al-Qaeda to train Taliban fighters. The governor of Herat Province, Mullah Khairullah Khairkhwa, was “directly associated” with Bin Laden, supervising an Al-Qaeda training camp and took part in Taliban dealings with Iran to jointly kill U.S. soldiers.

Click here to read the rest of my FPM article.

Sources are reporting that Americans should expect to be in the bull’s-eye of jihad, once again, after Islamist leaders and terrorist groups have been quoted saying they are likely to oppose any foreign forces intervening in Sudan, according to a report by Ryan Mauro in Joseph Farah’s G2 Bulletin.

And Obama administration officials have confirmed to press outlets the U.S. is planning a humanitarian intervention in the Southern Kordofan and Blue Nile provinces within weeks.

Islamist leaders repeatedly have accused the West of trying to divide Sudan in order to weaken the Muslim world.

In 2007, Osama Bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri declared jihad on United Nations and African Union peacekeepers in Darfur, describing their presence as a “brazen occupation.”

Also that year, the Sudan Tribune reported that it received a government document dated April 27, 2004, revealing that the ruling dictatorship had reached an agreement with al-Qaida for the terrorist group to attack foreign peacekeepers, which it called “Zionist enemies.”

Click here to read the rest of my G2 report.

Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich went at in what Nate Silver called “probably the most important GOP debate” of the campaign. The focus was mainly on the charges the two frontrunners have made against each other but when it came to foreign policy, the audience cheered Romney’s defense of Israel and Rick Santorum’s denunciation of the Obama administration towards “militant socialists” in Latin America.

The polls out of Florida have fluctuated wildly over the past week. In the days after Gingrich’s South Carolina victory, polls had him ahead by 8 or 9 points. Now, Romney has an average lead of 5 points, with several polls having him winning by 7 or 8 points. The two frontrunners swapped positions in just four days. The primary will be held on Tuesday, January 31.

On foreign policy, Mitt Romney had the most applause when he was asked about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. He ridiculed the Obama administration for “disrespecting” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, calling for peace negotiations to be based on the 1967 borders and for criticizing Israel’s settlements in the West Bank while remaining silent as terrorist rockets fell on Israeli cities. He gave a passionate defense of Israel, saying that it is the Palestinians who are uninterested in a two-state solution. He argued that both Hamas and Fatah seek the destruction of Israel and that Palestinian children are taught with textbooks advocating the killing of Jews.

Click here to read the rest of my FPM article.

It took far too long, but tough sanctions on Iran have finally arrived. On Monday, the European Union approved an oil embargo on Iran that will take full effect in July. Other countries are reducing oil imports from Iran. For a government that derives 85% of its revenue from oil exports and is already teetering on the edge, this is a reason for panic—and revenge.

The Iranian regime is already suffering from immense unpopularity, economic decline and a vicious internal power struggle. There is even dissent within the Revolutionary Guards. The impact of the last round of international sanctions was greatly underestimated. Israeli intelligence believes that the pressure forced Iran to cut its funding to Hezbollah by a whopping 40%. The oil embargo jabs the throat of the regime at a time when the regime needs every rial (the Iranian currency) it can get its hands on.

Iran exported 2.2 million barrels per day last year. It just lost 450,000 of that because of the European Union’s embargo. According to David Ignatius, Japan is talking about cutting back by 100,000 and South Korea by 40,000. Australia has followed suit and the South Africa’s Sasol Ltd. has begun moving away from oil business with Iran. Ignatius reports that, though China is publicly critical of the embargo, it has also cut its imports by half. In January 2011, China imported 550,000 barrels per day from Iran. In January 2012, it’s only 285,000.

Click here to read the rest of my FSM column.

FrontPage Magazine had Ben Shapiro and I each argue in favor of Romney and Gingrich’s electability, with me arguing in favor of the former. I’ll be writing another article in favor of Gingrich for PJ Media in the coming days.

My three reasons arguing for Romney’s electability were the polls (he’s much stronger in every single battleground state), Gingrich’s baggage and Gingrich’s past leadership difficulties. You can read my entire article by clicking here.

Shapiro’s three arguments in favor of Gingrich’s electability were: It’ll be harder for Obama to “craft a narrative” for Gingrich; conservatives make up the largest political group and genuine conservatives win independents and personality. Click here to read Shapiro’s article, which I think makes some very valid and interesting points.

Viewers of the first Republican presidential debate in Florida saw a newly aggressive Mitt Romney who engaged in a lengthy exchange with Newt Gingrich.  The media will focus on the bickering over Gingrich’s alleged lobbying and tenure as speaker of the House, but the tough talk on overthrowing the communist regime of Cuba is what electrified the audience.

About 10% of the Florida primary voters are Cuban-Americans, prompting the moderator to ask Mitt Romney about his stance on the Castro regime and how he’d handle a potential refugee crisis if it were to fall. Romney was applauded, even though the audience was asked to be quiet, when he said he’d first “thank heavens that Castro has gone to his maker.” He sharply criticized President Obama’s softening of America’s policy towards Cuba and praised a democratic activist who died in Cuba while on a hunger strike.

Newt Gingrich was likewise applauded by following that up with saying, “I don’t think Fidel [Castro] is going to meet his maker. He’s going to another place.”  Gingrich then won the biggest reaction of the night when he said that he would not tolerate four more years of the Castro dictatorship and would support a “Cuban Spring” by supporting every democratic activist achieve regime change.

Rick Santorum spoke in similar terms and broadened the discussion. He warned of the anti-American alliance that has formed between Cuba, Venezuela, Nicaragua and Iran and the “jihadists.” He said that these enemies are elated to have a base only 90 miles off the coast of Florida.

Click here to read the rest of my FPM article.

It’s not exactly a sign of strength when a dictator is found trying to import chemical weapons ingredients and has to rely upon a foreign terrorist group to fight a small group of protesters.

A senior official in the Iranian Revolutionary Guards says that Hezbollah sprung into action to save an Iranian base in Syria from being overrun by protesters and presumably, the rebel forces called the Free Syria Army. The base is located in Madaya in Zabadani, which fell to the rebels last week. The official claimed that Iran and Syria is working with Russia and China to “deter” foreign powers from intervening and that Russia has sent ships including aircraft carriers to protect the country.

A Lebanese opposition figure claims that Assad even relies upon Hezbollah for personal security and the staging of pro-regime rallies. He said that over 200 cars and one bus arrived in Syria from Hezbollah-controlled Lebanon to take part in a rally in Damascus. When Assad appeared in Umayyad Square, Hariri says, he was guarded by Hezbollah terrorists. He also noted that Assad only appeared for three minutes, indicating it was a staged event.

In a worrisome sign that Assad may be preparing to use chemical weapons, it has come out in the Turkish press that four Iranian trucks intercepted on their way to Syria two weeks ago contained WMD-related materials. One truck had components for ballistic missiles and the other three had 66 tons of sodium sulfate, used in the production of chemical weapons.

The Free Syria Army’s winning streak is continuing. It is still holding onto Douma, a suburb of Damascus. There are contradictory reports as to whether they captured parts of the city or the entire city. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights says the regime’s forces retreated to two sites, abandoning Douma. That would make it the second city to fall to the FSA in one week. Douma is only 20 kilometers southeast of the capital. Over 150,000 people attended funerals for civilians killed there today.

Syrian dissident Ammar Abdulhamid also reported fighting in Aleppo Province, specifically in Managh. There is also video of FSA members openly marching today in Kufrbutna, a neighborhood of Damascus.

Newt Gingrich’s 13-point victory over Mitt Romney in South Carolina on Saturday topped off the wildest week in the Republican presidential race to date. Only four candidates remain. Three of them have won a contest. As Karl Rove said on Fox News after the results were announced, “we are in unchartered territory.” This campaign isn’t ending anytime soon and neither is its unpredictability.

Mitt Romney’s hopes of sealing the nomination early were dashed by Gingrich on Saturday. Most observers agreed, as did Gingrich, that this race was essentially over if Romney won, as polls through much of the week indicated he would. Gingrich surged at the end and won a surprisingly decisive victory with 40.4%. Romney came in second with 27.8%. Rick Santorum was in third place with 17% and Ron Paul came in last with 13%.

It is often noted that South Carolina has chosen the eventual winner of the Republican nomination each time since 1980. However, Karl Rove noted that the victor always won either Iowa or New Hampshire before South Carolina. There is no precedent for where the race stands today.

Click here to read the rest of my FPM article.

The aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln has passed through the Strait of Hormuz and has entered into the Persian Gulf. This came after warnings from Iran that no US carrier would be allowed into the Gulf. This also came after the Islamic Republic held high-profile wargames.

“USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN 72) completed a regular and routine transit of the Strait of Hormuz, Jan. 22, to conduct maritime security operations as scheduled and in support of requirements set by the combatant commander,” a statement from Naval Forces Central Command said.

“The transit was completed as previously scheduled and without incident.”

The carrier was escorted by the guided-missile cruiser USS Cape St. George and two destroyers.

Another brinksmanship victory for the US.

Russia recently imparted a warning to the West, evidently having come to the conclusion that sanctions will “stifle” the Iranian economy. In remarks at a news conference, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that Western nations should instead return to focusing their efforts on reviving talks with Iran.

Lavrov also cautioned the West against launching a military strike, insisting it “would pour fuel on the hidden smoldering fire of Sunni-Shi’ite confrontation.” In truth, the sectarian conflict has fueled friction between Iran and Saudi Arabia, and between Iran and Bahrain where Shi’ite populations have mounted uprisings against the Wahabi and Sunni regimes. Read the rest of this entry »

It is now known that Hamas has decided not to renew the tenure of Khaled Mashaal, the chief of its Damascus-based political bureau and close ally of Bashar Assad. This is a dramatic shakeup that indicates a major policy shift by Hamas away from the Assad regime, which has been battling a revolution that the Muslim Brotherhood is a part of.

Khaled Mashaal finally explained his position on Syria, endorsing Assad because of his long-standing support for Hamas while indirectly criticizing the crackdown. Iran has threatened to cut off all support for Hamas if it leaves Damascus (departures of staff has already begun) but Hamas has enough regional allies to offset this.

Reports indicate that the Hamas leadership made the decision unanimously two weeks ago during a meeting in Sudan. The most likely replacement is Mousa Abu Marzouk, a member of the Muslim Brotherhood’s secret “Palestine Committee” set up in the U.S. to covertly support Hamas. Marzouk was imprisoned by the U.S. for his involvement in terrorism and it will be an interesting turn of events if a member of the American Muslim Brotherhood takes over Hamas’ political bureau.

If Marzouk replaces Mashaal, the political bureau will probably move from Damascus to Egypt, where he currently resides. The less-likely candidate being mentioned is the Prime Minister of the Hamas regime in the Gaza Strip, Ismail Haniyeh. If he is selected, then the political bureau will (presumably) move there.

At the same time, momentum is growing for Arab military intervention in Syria. Al-Azhar University’s Ahmed al-Tayyeb is calling on the Arab world to implement “serious and immediate measures” to stop the violence. One of the reasons would be to get involved before the West does. Al-Tayyeb warned that “outsiders” could end up “transgressing” Arab land if they don’t step up to the plate. If those with that type of attitude end up helping the rebels topple Assad, then the chances of a pro-American regime replacing him become much less.

The Free Syria Army still controls the town of Zabadani and just won another battle today, briefly seizing part of Douma, another town in the west that is a suburb of Damascus. After they won, they wisely returned to their safehouses. This was a smart decision because it allows the Free Syria Army to declare victory and disperses their forces, making it harder for the regime to destroy them in one spot.

There is also fighting reported in the area of Jebel al-Zawiya in Idlib Province near Turkey and Jisr al-Shughour in the northwest.

The secular liberals in Syria seeking to topple Bashar Assad don’t want their country to be overtaken by Islamists, as has happened in Tunisia, Egypt and to a lesser degree, Libya. The most popular opposition body, the Free Syria Army, consists of mostly-secular defectors from Assad’s military. They do not speak of jihad, Sharia-based governance and usually don’t even have beards.

The umbrella opposition group that formed in Turkey, called the Syrian National Council, is being recognized by the international community as the equivalent of the Libyan Transitional Government, but it is largely influenced by Islamists like the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood. There were reports that when the term of its secular president, Burhan Ghalioun, was over, he’d be replaced by someone closely aligned with the U.S.-based Muslim Brotherhood. Luckily, Ghalioun’s time was extended.

It wasn’t that long ago that the Free Syria Army reached an agreement to coordinate with the SNC, but a recent announcement (as reported by the U.S.-based Reform Party of Syria) by the FSA indicates it has broken ranks. The FSA asked Syrians to “discredit their legitimacy” and said that the “SNC members and its executive office headquarters have become a burden to the revolution.”

A Sunni opposition leader named Kamal al-Labwani is more forcefully confronting the Syrian Islamists. He argues that Assad’s crackdown is fueling “jihadist Islamist values” and is working for a common front between secular liberal Sunnis and the 30% of the population that are minorities, specifically the Kurds, Christians, Allawites and Ismailis. These minorities would never support the Islamists.

Al-Labwani is the type of leader we should be throwing our full support behind. He calls for a reformation within Islam and warns that we shouldn’t believe the Islamists’ claims that they are democratic. He says that most Syrians want Islam to “remain a religion, not a political party.” Consider these two recent statements:

“There has been no Islamist democratic country in history, and we do not want to try to be the first.”

“This region will not stabilize without a reformation in Islamic culture that creates an Islam compatible with liberal values and modernism and breaks the totalitarian dogmatic Islamist thinking.”

That’s the type of stuff that gets you branded as an “Islamophobe” by CAIR!

Reuters reports that the Kurds feel left out of the SNC and will be holding a conference in Iraq this month to present the Syrian opposition with their list of demands, primarily a request for an autonomous region in northeast Syria. The Kurds feel that the SNC has marginalized them because of Turkish influence and because of their rivalry with Arab nationalists and Islamists within the body.

There are some other Syria-related developments worth mentioning.

The Syrian Muslim Brotherhood says it has rejected an offer from Iran to control Syria’s government in exchange for allowing Assad to remain as president.

On January 18, the Free Syria Army captured a member of the security forces in Idlib City. The operative provided details of operations planned by the regime to detonate 7 bombs in tin cans, plastic bags and garbage bags between January-18-19 to justify further oppression. The Free Syria Army also recently captured the former head of Air Force security in Homs who was brought out of retirement to fight the rebels.

Imad Ghalioun, a member of parliament representing Homs, has just defected. Earlier this month, the lead inspector for Assad’s Defense Ministry, Mahmoud Hajj Hamid, defected.

In August, an Iranian-sponsored terror plot to kill the Saudi ambassador in Washington D.C. was foiled. The plot, the severity of which the media’s headlines consistently failed to capture, involved blowing up a restaurant. The plotters also discussed setting off bombs at the Saudi and Israeli embassies in D.C. and Buenos Aires. Now, a Hezbollah (read: Iran) terror plot in Thailand has been prevented.

It is thought that an Israeli site, or a more general Jewish site, was the target. On Monday, the Thai police seized two stockpiles of bomb-producing chemicals near Bangkok. The authorities originally said that the ingredients were to go to another country, as the suspect had contacted a shipping company to send the materials outside of Thailand. Stratfor believes this is the case. On the other hand, the plot was foiled because the Israelis provided Thailand with intelligence about a Hezbollah plot to attack tourist sites in Bangkok that was about to happen.

Ha’aretz reports that on December 22, the Israelis gave the Thais information that three members of Hezbollah had entered their country to carry out terrorist attacks. Around the same time, the U.S. also gave the Thais information about the plot that said Western and U.S.-related sites were to be attacked. More specific intelligence was provided on January 8, which determined that this weekend was the launch date. The Israeli paper’s source claims that the plot was supposed to happen around the anniversary of the killing of Imad Mughniyah.

On Thursday, the Thais arrested Atris Hussein at the capital’s airport as he tried to get out of the country, apparently realizing that his gig was up after his bomb ingredients were found. A second suspect is at large. Ha’aretz says that, according to its source, Atris Hussein told his interrogators that the cell was going to attack Israeli tourists in Thailand. Other reports indicate that Hussein is adamant that the bomb ingredients were being moved outside of Thailand and that the country was not the target of any operation.

The New York Times reports that, in the past, Hezbollah has conducted surveillance in Thailand on El Al Airlines, the Chabad house in Bangkok, and places often visited by Israeli tourists. In 1994, an Iranian terror cell was stopped before it set off a truck bomb near the Israeli embassy.

Let’s think of some of the terror plots that we know Iran was involved in somehow.

• The bombings and hostage-takings in Lebanon in the 1980s
• The bombings in Argentina in the early 1990s and the 1994 bomb plot in Thailand
• The 1996 Khobar Towers bombing in Saudi Arabia
• The 1998 U.S. embassy bombings in East Africa
• The attacks of September 11, 2001
• Countless attacks in Israel, Iraq & Afghanistan
• Probably the 2005 assassination of former Lebanese prime minister Rafiq Hariri
• The 2007 JFK Airport bomb plot
• The 2009 bomb plot against the Israeli embassy in Azerbaijan
• The 2009 proxy war in Yemen
• The 2010 plot to kill the Saudi ambassador in D.C. and possible embassy attacks in D.C. & Argentina
• The 2011 bomb plot in Thailand

And I’m sure there are many that I have missed. Now, ask yourself: Is this the type of regime that should be allowed to achieve the capability to quickly produce nuclear weapons?