Preliminary Tally: Brotherhood Wins Presidency but Real Power Lies in Generals’ Hands
Here’s an excerpt from my article about Egypt’s presidential election and how the ruling generals have seized power:
This means that full legislative powers are in the hands of the SCAF. The generals will control the budget and will soon pick the 100-person assembly to draft the next constitution under their direction. Once the new constitution is written, it must be approved in a referendum within three months. Only then can new parliamentary elections take place, which isn’t expected to happen any earlier than December. SCAF says it is still committed to handing power over to the chosen president by July, but SCAF gets to decide how much power he’ll actually have.
SCAF has the power to accept the legitimate election results or to declare the victor that it wants. It seems to be preparing the ground to invalidate Morsi’s victory. SCAF may give the presidency to the Muslim Brotherhood in order to maintain the façade of a balance of powers and to appease its main rival while shutting out genuinely secular-democratic voices. On the other hand, SCAF may be unwilling to give up even a thimble-like amount of power. If that’s the case, then Shafiq gets the presidency.
Don’t put too much emphasis on who officially wins the Egyptian presidency on Thursday. Unlike Tunisia and Libya, regime change didn’t happen in Egypt. It was a reshuffling of regime leadership. SCAF will be writing the next constitution. The future of Egypt is in the hands of the generals, just as it was before the Arab Spring.
