Unwinnable Afghanistan?
As this article from the Times of India makes clear, the situation in Afghanistan is not all about Afghanistan. The article revolves around the events at the recent London Conference on Afghanistan.
Pakistan has pushed hard to remain in the driver’s seat on Afghan policy. And, at least for now, it appears to be winning by hard-selling the line that without the involvement of the ISI (Pakistani Inter-Services Intelligence Agency), re-integration will remain a non-starter. That was evident first at the Istanbul Af-Pak meeting leading up to the January 28 London conference , where Pakistan insisted India be kept out of the talks, and even a feeble attempt by Karzai to get India to the table was brushed off. India fretted and fumed impotently, but found itself completely dealt out of the game by Pakistan and the UK leading the charge, letting Karzai announce that he was going to draw his brothers back into the tent, and requesting the Saudis to mediate a ‘reintegration and reconciliation’ with the Taliban.
Here is the crux of the matter.
For India, global approval of the reconciliation process implies Pakistan, with its ISI and army, is likely to take a leading role. As Holbrooke told MK Narayanan, who was till recently NSA (National Security Advisor to the Prime Minister), and Nirupama Rao (current Foreign Minister) quietly during his last visit a couple of weeks ago, Pakistan has worked itself into a paranoia about India’s presence in Afghanistan; India would have to be removed from all decision-making on Afghanistan, they insisted. As London showed, Islamabad got its way. (Bold mine).
Please read the entire article.
Analysis. Not much analysis is required here. Hindus and Muslims have been mortal enemies since the first Muslim hordes invaded well over a thousand years ago. The conflict over the Ahyoda Temple makes it clear that this hatred exists today as much as a thousand years ago. Pakistan is deathly afraid of a two front war with India on two sides with the Indian Army or Afghani proxies. It will do all it can, including support and foster the Taliban and other Muslim Fundamentalist groups and make peace in Afghanistan impossible as long as India maintains influence there.
The moral of this story is simple. Either we convince Pakistan that the United States will be its ally in any war with India or we get out of Afghanistan. The first position is flatly untenable. Ergo, time to call it a war and beat feet.
Tags: Afghanistan, India, Pakistan