Analysis: Muslim States Approve of Attack on Iran
It is absolutely no surprise to me that the named states would approve of an Israeli strike on Iran. The Gulf Cooperation Council states, Egypt and Jordan are in as much danger from Shiite Iran, and it is extremely important to remember Shiite Iran, as Israel is and for the same reason: religion. Israel is in danger ultimately from Islam in general as the Qur’an specifically tells Muslims that the trees and rocks will cry out to them that there is a Jew hiding behind them and the Muslim is to come and kill the Jew. The Sunni Muslim states are at risk because the Shiites are tired of being second class citizens in their own religion. They, the followers of Ali (Shiiat Ali - the followers of Ali), believe that Mohammad’s grandson Ali should have been the first Caliph and not the fourth.
This is also no surprise as Debka many months ago reported upon a meeting of the intelligence chiefs of these same nations. When intelligence chiefs start meeting, meetings of planners are not far behind. Once the planning starts events start moving themselves towards execution of the plan at some point. It is also important to note that it is the synergy of the armed forces of these countries acting together that provides the best chance for success. Israel may have the deep strike capability and the bunker busters or nuclear weapons if necessary. But the Saudis have Tornados and Strike Eagles that can effectively interdict Iran’s airfields, surface-to-surface missile systems and surface-to-air missile systems that lie on both sides of the Iranian Zagros Mountains. The Saudi AWACS will be available for battle management duties. The air forces of the Gulf States can provide escort, Combat Air Patrol (CAP) and intercept incoming Iranian strike aircraft. The Kuwait Air Force can augment the Iraqi Air Force to intercept incoming Iranian strike aircraft and provide close air support to the Iraqi Army defending the Shatt al-Arab.
Not only do these kinds of arrangements make sense, they are vital. All of these countries realize that they are all at risk no matter what they do other than becoming “protectorates” of Iran. They also realize that this will be a war on two fronts: Eastern and Western. Iran is the anchor of the Eastern Front. Syria and Lebanon anchor the Western Front. The recent supply of advanced surface to air missile systems to Hezbollah indicates a strengthening of that front. The recent visit of Ahmadinejad to Damascus indicates that planning on the Iranian side may also be advancing. It is also proof beyond a doubt that the vast majority of terrorism in the Middle East can be directly attributed to Iran and can be used as an indicator of preparations to attack Israel.
I still believe that Iran will do its best to back Israel into a corner from which they believe that their only escape is to attack Iran. It has not helped that the latest attempt to impose serious sanctions on Iran has obviously failed or that Iran has just announced the newest missile in its arsenal. This one is designed to sink ships in the Persian Gulf. There is a revolutionary movement in Iran and we report on it almost daily with information directly from Iran. So far that movement is an irritant to the regime but not a real danger. The regime is too well entrenched to be removed unless the regular Iranian military decides to take part. So far that has not happened.
Even though all of these actions are taking place, it is not possible to estimate when such an attack on Iran or by Iran will take place. As much depends on the weather as on the political machinations of the parties. Bad weather favors the Israelis and to some extent the Saudis due to the technological advancement of its armed fores relative to the Iranians. Bad weather also favors small unit and terrorist like attacks on oil facilities and other strategic targets. But an attack will occur when one party or the other decides it can’t wait any longer and survive. I believe that the Israelis will be first to decide it cannot wait.
Tags: Egypt, Iran, Iran: nuclear program, Israel, Jordan