Is Turkey Ready for War?
That is the question that we must all answer and rather quickly. Here is some evidence that they may well be. This from Debka
Furthermore, the Irish vessel Rachel Corrie, which was left out of the flotilla after it developed technical trouble, was discovered to have changed course from a direct route to Gaza and headed for a stopover at a Turkish port. Debkafile’s counter-terror sources disclose suspicions in the Israeli government and naval command that the Irish ship would take aboard a new batch of trained Turkish IHH terrorists and head for the Gaza Strip. They might even be the same IHH activists who attacked Israeli commandos on the Marmara and were deported Wednesday.
Erdogan has resolved that this group which he personally sponsored will reach Gaza Port by hook or by crook. It is also feared in Jerusalem that he may attach an escort of Turkish warships and air force jets to accompany the Rachel Corrie and make sure the ship breaks through the blockade to its destination.The Irish ship was first scheduled to anchor Saturday, June 5, but its detour to Turkey will delay its arrival by a couple of days.
Analysis. And if the Turks escort the Rachel Corrie and they are met by an Israeli warship and IAF fighters? Neither side will back down. There is no guarantee that the Israeli Navy will prevail. If the Israelis fire first, do they become the aggressor even though the Turks are trying to break a blockade in which they have no logical interest? Do the Turks invoke Article Five of the NATO treaty? What does the US do then? Who is behind this mess? Is this “retribution” for the US calling the Iran, Brazil, Turkey nuclear deal a sham? Is Iran becoming so unstable that it needs a war to unite the nation?
There are a lot more questions that require answers. But the first one is the most important. Is Turkey ready for war? I believe that it may well be at least politically. This “break the blockade” move didn’t appear out of thin air. We can expect that the Rachel Corrie will embark a lot more people and sail with more than the thirteen to fifteen people reported to be aboard right now. As with the Marmara, some number of those will be terrorists ready to resist any Israeli attempt to board the ship. The Israelis will board this time with overwhelming force. There will be a mess.
Erdogan has put his political career on the line. If he fails to get the Rachel Corrie through the blockade he may well be taken out of office. The Turkish military may well yet throw him out of office. They may support him as this becomes a point of national honor for Turkey. Let me be real clear about this. If Turkey ends up going to war with Israel, there is every reason to believe that the rest of the islamic neighbors of Israel will also with the possible exception of Jordan. But Turkey and Egypt together have the power to defeat Israel or force it to resort to nuclear weapons. And neither side will back down.
