The Jerusalem Post is reporting that Iran has passed a law to allow it to inspect the ships and planes of countries that inspect its ships and planes under the UN sanctions.
“The bill follows last month’s UN Security Council resolution to impose a fourth set of sanctions against Iran over its disputed nuclear program. The latest sanctions authorize international inspection of suspicious Iranian cargo ferried by ships or aircraft.
Economic pressure on Iran has increased over the past few weeks as tougher UN and US sanctions have begun to take effect.”
Analysis. Misplaced bravado? Maybe. Consider this: how many Iranian airplanes are stuck in other countries because nobody will fuel them. Imagine an airliner from an airline based in one of these countries being intercepted by Iranian Air Force aircraft and being ordered to go to an Iranian airport. Imagine that the Iranian Air Force interceptors, probably F-4s, are themselves intercepted by a couple of F-18s and told to “beat feet”. Then imagine that the Iranians threaten to shoot down the airliner. If the Iranians are following standard procedures and one of their aircraft is sitting a mile behind the airliner with an AIM-9 locked on, can you kill that aircraft fast enough to keep it from hitting the airliner and probably destroying one engine and putting a lot of shrapnel into the fuselage? Good question but one that had best be considered.
Do we now start escorting every airliner within the combat radius of the Iranian Air Force? That might become necessary. Same for ships. Do we set up a convoy system to escort ships within say 250 nautical miles of Iran? Have we got enough escorts to do that and play games with the North Koreans at the same time?
As far as I know there have been no intercepts of Iranian ships or aircraft. The Iranians even called off their Gaza blockade buster to avoid a confrontation. That means to me that there is still a certain amount of realism within the mullahocracy. Given the information in today’s Iran Updates, the serious question is how much more deterioration of their economy and revolt of their people can they tolerate? I suspect probably not much. The passage of the law allowing intercepts is one indication that the mullahs, especially those who follow the lead of Yazdi about bringing forth the Hidden Imam, may have just about hit their limit.
I continue to make the point that there are only two ways Iran can go: implode or explode. Given the influence of Yazdi and the effort that was expended to insure that Ahmadinejad would remain as President and that his cabinet would be a who’s who of the Revolutionary Guard senior leadership, I vote for explode. These people will happily destroy Iran in the name of allah and the Hidden Imam and leave nothing but a burned out shell for those who were not sufficiently religious to follow their lead.