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Debka is also reporting on this incident.
But the most striking feature of the incident, noted by Debkafile’s military and intelligence sources, is the unusual degree of assent between US Navy and Iranian officials that the damage to the supertanker was caused by an explosion by an unknown hand. … According to our sources in Washington and Tehran, while waiting for evidence, both speculate that the perpetrators may be either pirates in the pay of Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula or even a rogue element in the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, which is bent on settling scores for the latest UN, US and European sanctions against their country.
Please read the entire article for more important information.
Analysis.While awaiting the forensic inspection of the tanker, I stand by the “three Revolutionary Guards in a Rigid Raider with an RPG.” Somali pirates via Yemen I class as a low possibility. The modus operandi does not match any previous attacks. The Somali pirates use RPGs and other weapons to scare the crew and to cover their attempt to board the tanker. They don’t just take wild shots at ships they don’t intend to board. The ship that was attacked broadcasts a Mayday and every naval ship in the area and most of the aircraft head for the ship. Not conducive to pirate longevity as the Russian Navy has demonstrated.
It is indeed possible that the Revolutionary Guards who probably attacked the M. Star did so, as Debka notes, on their own. After the things we have learned from our friends in Iran about the state of the Revolutionary Guards, it is quite possible that some local commander has lost control of some of his more fervent men. It is also quire evident from the Iranian Navy response that they have no clue at least close to the time of the attack. But the IRGC and the regular military don’t often talks to each other. They are parallel militaries akin to the German Army and the Waffen SS of Nazi Germany.
The tanker will dock in Oman and the forensic experts will do their investigation. Depending on what their conclusions are, we may or may not know what happened. I suspect that if the experts conclude it was someone other than Revolutionary Guards, the report will be made public quickly to take the heat off of Iran. If it was IRGC folks, they will probably quietly disappear in the name of revolutionary discipline.
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