Iran has stopped the shipments of advanced IEDs to Iraqi insurgents according to the head of the Pentagon office created to combat IEDs. The Iraqi goverment is also confirming that Iran has stopped interfering in Iraq.
This may be happening because of one, or several, of the possible reasons:
1) They fear that President Bush, free of political constraints, could use such shipments to justify an attack on Iran as he leaves office.
2) Iran is satisfied with the U.S.-Iraqi Status of Forces agreement and therefore doesn’t want to cause instability that could result in an Iraqi request (or American demand) for U.S. forces to remain in the country.
3) Iran is seeing its supporting of violence in Iraq causing a backlash among the Iraqi population, most notably among the Shiites which are generally seen as the group most likely to support Iran. For example, more than 300,000 Iraqis and 600 Shiite tribal leaders have signed a petition against Iran for its involvement in fomenting such violence.
4) Some sort of secret understanding has been reached between the U.S., Iraq and Iran on this topic.
5) With the Status of Forces agreement signed and Iraq becoming more independent of the U.S., Iran worries that sending in IEDs will be interpreted as an attack on Iraq and the Iraqi government, more than assisting the “freedom fighters” opposing “American occupation.” such a perception would jeopardize the influence Iran overtly and covertly has over Iraqi politicians, government departments and political parties.
6) Iran is stopping the shipment of IEDs as a way of convincing President-Elect Obama that they are rational and can be dealt with diplomatically if treated responsibly.
7) Iran simply found other methods that are more effective in achieving their objectives in Iraq.