When I was on Fox & Friends Sunday morning to analyze the previous night’s debate, host Alisyn Camerota was surprised when I said that I saw evangelicals moving in force to Newt Gingrich. If I’m correct, their support could win him the nomination.
About 37% of those who will participate in the Iowa caucus on January 3 will be evangelical and 45% consider themselves to be very socially conservative. In 2008, 60% of voters in Iowa and South Carolina and 44% of all primary voters were evangelicals. It is their opinion that will matter most in determining the right-of-Romney candidate, and the rise of Gingrich is happening with their permission. In a remark that apparently no one noticed during the November 9 debate, Romney mentioned he’s only gone to one church and has only had one wife. He was obviously drawing a contrast with Gingrich.
It is hard to get a good read on Iowa because of the contradictory poll results, but Gingrich is definitely within reach of the top spot, if he doesn’t have it. The latest Rasmussen poll has Gingrich with a wide lead in Iowa at 32%, followed by Romney with 19% and Cain with 13%. Two polls show Cain in the lead, closely followed by Ron Paul. Another has a four-way tie. The polls out of South Carolina, where Gingrich has the largest operation, also vary widely. Herman Cain has the lead in an average of the polls, but another has Romney with a slight lead over Cain and another has Gingrich in second place behind Cain.
Pundits have long doubted Gingrich’s appeal to evangelicals because of his personal history and the attractiveness of other candidates. Cain was an associate minister, sounds like a preacher, and even recorded a gospel album. Bachmann is an evangelical herself. Santorum is the warrior fighting on behalf of family values. Perry held a “Day of Prayer and Fasting” for America as governor of Texas shortly before he declared his candidacy.
There are three reasons why evangelicals have warmed up to Gingrich and are likely to embrace him as the alternative to Romney.