Monthly Analysis: April 2004

By: Ryan Mauro

tdcanalyst@optonline.net

 

 

War on Terror

            Although the authenticity of the Osama Bin Laden tape can be debated, we surely must be concerned by its release. The previous re-release of a section of a previous tape may have signaled the Madrid bombings. It is quite likely that the tape signaled the attempted attacks in Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Israel by Al-Qaeda.

            King Abdullah explained the great danger these attacks posed. Al-Qaeda forces led by Abu Musab al-Zarqawi could have killed up to 20,000 people and decapitated the government. He confirmed that the vehicles with the lethal chemicals and poison gas came from Syria, carrying 17.5 tons of explosives, although he mentioned he didn’t believe Assad knew about it. WorldThreats.com does not believe that though. Anyway, the attacks were to destroy the US embassy in Amman, a government facility, and a Jordanian military-intelligence installation. [1] It was later found out that the attack involved 71 lethal chemicals including nerve gas, choking agents and blister agents, involving a total of 20 tons of chemicals. The money for the plot came from Zarqawi’s agents in Syria. If successful, a chemical cloud would have extended 3 miles above Amman, destroy the entire Jordanian intelligence department, and contaminated a large mall and medical hospital. [2]

            People close to the investigation into the WMD plot have told John Loftus that the weapon to be used was a poison gas consisting of several chemicals to be mixed together, thus it had to be VX as that is the only nerve gas where chemicals can be safely mixed in the field. If the lab tests show it is VX, it is proof Syria is cooperating with Al-Qaeda, and proof that either Syria has VX, or that Iraqi VX is in Syrian hands. [3] Zarqawi, who is behind this plot, also has declared responsibility for a sophisticated boat assault on an oil terminal at Basra, Iraq that killed three Americans. [4]

            Considering the success terrorists had in Madrid, we can bet on some sort of attack around election time. Many figures including Condi Rice has confirmed the worry. This summer also looks especially dangerous, as former FBI Special Agent Harold Copus claims summer 2004 will be remembered as “the summer of terror”. Tom Ridge apparently also sees danger ahead and has formed a new terrorism task force. [5] This came after the FBI warned that over the summer terrorists might try to attack the transportation sector near major cities. [6]

            There is rumor that the Department of Homeland Security debated whether to go to orange alert when in mid-April intelligence was received indicating that known Islamic terrorists were saying an attack was imminent and operatives were in place. [7] At the same time, the head of al-Muhajiroun, Sheikh Omar Bakri Mohamed, publicly stated that militants sympathetic to Al-Qaeda were planning to attack London and would succeed because of the sheer volume of militants trying to pull off an attack. [8] British intelligence also foiled a plot by terrorists to use a “dirty bomb” laced with osmium tetroxide to attack US targets including the Sears Tower. [9]

            Numerous terrorist attacks, as usual, were foiled in Israel. It is believed by Israeli intelligence that al-Zarqawi sent operatives to attack Israel with chemical weapons, possibly VX. That is not proven, but what is proven is that a Palestinian suicide bomber belonging to Tanzim tried to detonate a bomb with HIV-tainted blood over Passover. [10]

            Heightened alert likely also came from the discovery by European intelligence that terrorists planning to use chemical weapons there were much more advanced than previously thought, noting that small groups of chemical experts were in several European countries that coordinate their efforts in an undetectable way. Many of the experts are connected to Chechen extremists that carried out chemical experiments in Chechnya and Georgia’s Pankisi Gorge. Captured terrorists indicated that some of the plots included plans to use ricin and botulism on Russian targets in France. [11]

 

            Information on the hunt for Osama Bin Laden leaked out in April. US and Pakistani intelligence was looking into the travels of a high value target, believed to be Osama, who traveled from Dera Ismail Khan to Karachi via truck, and then may have slipped out on a private ferry through Karachi or the port of Gwadar. It is also possible though that he re-entered Pakistan’s Baluchistan province and then moved back into Afghanistan. The investigation concluded that a few months ago he was at Dera Ismail Khan, after he and Zawahiri fled to Showal in North Waziristan after escaping Afghanistan. The investigators claim they have proof Osama stayed in Showal until June 2003, and this is where the videotapes of that time were shot. [12]

            Regarding the intelligence failures, CIA director George Tenet testified in April that it would take five more years to make the intelligence agencies the way they need to be in order to fight terrorism to their best ability. [13] Intelligence needs to be improved in our allied agencies as well, especially now that we know that an Al-Qaeda double agent named Abu Qatada used his relationship with MI6 to find safehouses for terrorists. The British still trusted him after he met with the chief of the Madrid bombings. [14]

            There are indications that terrorists are plotting biological terrorism in Iraq. An encyclopedia was posted which taught militants how to poison troops with ricin, cyanide, botulinum toxin, and other substances. The encyclopedia was very technical and very accurate. [15] In another audiotape, this time released by a senior Al-Qaeda operative in Saudi Arabia, named Abdulaziz al-Muqarin, this year will be known for fierce attacks against American interests. [16]

 

Iraqi WMD

            New evidence is always emerging that Iraq did indeed have weapons of mass destruction. A source going by the name “Rashid” worked at the top of the Iraqi science establishment until 1998, and has claimed to have regularly met Saddam Hussein and the deputy prime minister. He reported to the Coalition that he had access to a number of trusted insiders who spoke of secret underground bunkers where chemical weapons were stored. He said there were at least five secret bunkers around Baghdad, Tikrit and Basra—three of them he claimed he visited regularly.

            He explained that one bunker was located under an island in the Tigris River near Saddam University; another was beneath the house of one of Saddam’s cousins, which could only be reached by a tunnel that had a hidden entrance 800 meters away. The bunkers are 15 meters underground, and have reinforced concrete around them totaling several stories. The lethal chemicals are stored in drums, artillery shells and 122mm rockets. Foreign construction companies including one from China, he said, built the sites. [17]

            The head of the IAEA also reported evidence that Iraq covered up a nuclear program. Muhammad el-Baradei explained that large amounts of nuclear-related equipment, including some contaminated supplies, and a small number of missile engines, had been smuggled out of Iraq and sent to European shipyards for recycling. He says UN satellites detected extensive removal of equipment and sometimes even entire buildings from sites being monitored by the UN before the war. [18]

            Frontpage Magazine had an incredible article on April 7 from someone in a position to know about the Iraq Survey Group. Among the problems with the ISG is that many personnel involved are from the DIA, CIA and State Department, criticized for bureaucratic intelligence problems before 9-11. The author criticizes the ISG’s technical and tactical incompetence, a motivation to minimize significant findings, and to hurt the search overall. Huge amounts of commercial and agricultural chemicals have been seized, but the ISG quickly said they were legit chemicals, in contradiction to the Pentagon. All the ingredients necessary for a biological program have been found across Iraq. The Pentagon has the best equipment for this and should be seen as the ultimate authority on the decision but is not seen as such. The author also writes a good question: Are we supposed to believe that the entire Department of Defense was ripped off by the contractors supplying the top-notch equipment used to detect WMD?

            Among the findings that may have been WMD:

 

1) Near Karbala, 55-gallon drums were found full of pesticide in a camouflaged bunker six feet underground. Over a dozen people became ill from being exposed to the site. An Army NBC-specialized vehicle and other Pentagon tests confirmed it was sarin. Yet the ISG tests said they were not WMDs, but could not explain the sickness the people got from exposure, why it was disguised if it was just pesticides, and why it was next to a military ammunition dump.

 

2) At Baiji, 55-gallon drums were found originally detected to be cyclosarin and an unidentified blister agent. A mobile lab was found nearby that could be used to mix chemicals for use in c/b warfare, and only yards away there was surface-to-surface missiles, surface-to-air missiles and gas masks. The ISG later said they were not WMDs, leaving us to the conclusion that the Iraqis must have been paranoid about killing insects near the military site coincidentally built perfectly for c/b warfare.

 

3) At Taji, just north of Baghdad, suspicious materials were found in a large ammunition dump. The ISG later said they were just regular pesticides. Why would they be in an ammunition dump in a strategic area?

 

4) Near Basra, Danish forces found 120mm mortar shells with a strange liquid inside them. Multiple tests by the Danes and British all confirmed a blister agent was inside, but later the ISG said these tests were all wrong. First off, there is no other reason to ever put a liquid inside a mortar round. Second, the Danes after the ISG announcement said they still couldn’t figure out why the tests were wrong.

 

5) A mobile biological lab was found on April 10 2003 near Baghdad by the marines. Initial testing showed it to be a biological lab but the ISG, again said this was not so later on. They said its purpose may have been to deal with hydrogen, and was never used. Of course, this doesn’t explain the dual-use nature of the lab and how there were hidden compartments, and how it matched the description of mobile bio labs provided by defectors and human intelligence. Additionally, tests detected decontamination agents! If cleaned this way we should expect to see what would appear to be a lab never used.

 

6) In April 2003 underground tunnels were found at the al-Tawaitha facility near Baghdad, long believed to be used for nuclear development. Large amounts of nuclear materials such as uranium was found of a low-grade nature. Tests indicated huge radiation levels inside the drums. This was quickly dismissed, since it could have been used for “industrial” reasons.

 

7) On April 12, 2003, an Iraqi airbase in Kirkut was searched and the army found what was believed to be a chemical warhead with traces of nerve gases.

 

8) In May 2003 another mobile bio lab was found trying to escape Coalition forces near Mosul.

 

9) On April 5, 2003, it was leaked to the press that substances, possibly cyanide and mustard gas was detected in the Euphrates Rivers near Nasiriyah.

 

10) On April 7, 2003 near Baghdad marines found was what originally believed to be medium-range ballistic missiles equipped with sarin and mustard gas. Later tests showed this not to be the case.

 

            Are all these cases WMD? WorldThreats.com believes that is highly unlikely. However, some of these, particularly the ones where we point out inconsistencies, need to be looked at again for the reasons provided by the article in Frontpage Magazine.

 

            Charles Duelfer, the new head of the ISG has reported progress in the search. He explained that the reason for the difficulties in the search, aside from Saddam’s preparations to hide the weapons, was over reliance on Iraqi scientists and uncooperative Iraqi officials.

            He mentioned they were still following leads, “some quite intriguing and credible” about Iraqi WMDs, and mentioned they have found new evidence that Iraq had at least the technical ability to use civilian facilities to quickly produce chemical and biological weapons. He also explained that new evidence had been uncovered that Iraq flight-tested long-range ballistic missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles beyond the 93 mile limit set by the UN. [19]

            Evidence uncovered also indicated that Iraq had planned to expand, improve and build new facilities that could be used to make chemical and biological weapons during 2003, and that scientists were actively testing commercial pesticides that can be used in weaponized anthrax at research centers. [20] Other findings included that Iraqi nuclear scientists developed a rail gun that can be used for nuclear weapons and that Iraqi labs had done research on certain techniques essential for nuclear experiments including flash x-ray radiography, laser velocimetry and high-speed photography.

            UN experts are also analyzing a shipment from Iraq of missile engines with nuclear material to Rotterdam. [21]

 

Middle East

 

            The Iraq War took a bad turn this month as Moqtada al-Sadr revolted with Iranian assistance, and radicals in Fallujah linked to Abu Musab al-Zarqawi began aggressive attacks. Many of those radicals came in with help from Syria. This was the most delicate situation in the guerilla war yet. Entering Shiite holy cities could make the situation worse, especially as the normally pro-American Shiite cleric Al-Sistani threatened to launch jihad if US forces entered Najaf and Karbala. [22] Please refer to my article, “Moqtada al-Sadr and the Second Iraq War” for more analysis on the situation.

            Paul Bremer has had to admit mistakes in handling Iraqi security. He has begun allowing Baath Party members back into the school systems, army, and security sources. WorldThreats.com supports this knowing this is the only way to speed up the process of putting an Iraqi face on security, and that most members of the Baath were forced to join, or had to in order to get any type of meaningful job. The situation is bad in this area as General Dempsey confirmed that one-tenth of the Iraqi security personnel betrayed America during the uprising, and 40% refused to fight. [23]

            The Pentagon now believes that many of the bombings in Iraq, particularly in Fallujah and Ramadi, are carried out by Saddam’s secret service that planned for the insurgency before the war (reversing the recent belief that this was not pre-planned). Members of M-14, or the “Special Operations and Anti-Terrorism Branch” are organizing attacks especially ones with car bombs and improvised explosive devices such as roadside bombs. Suicide vests often used by the terrorists have been found to be made by M-14 before the war. The Pentagon also believes that much of the Fallujah fighting is from Special Republican Guard soldiers with assistance from Iraqi intelligence. [24]

            Syria’s assistance to the insurgency has caused what some have called a “silent war”. WorldThreats.com has been reporting on this undeclared war for months. This week however, attention was brought to it when marines trying to stop the flow of insurgents battled Syrian security officers and terrorists crossing the border. Five marines were killed over one weekend near al-Qaim and Qusaybah. [25] Marines also discovered a missile launch pad on the Syrian border. [26]

            Despite the deaths, Syria is refusing to help secure the border, and continues to help the insurgency by arming the terrorists, allowing them free passage, allowing them to return for supplies and helping terrorists like Hamas and Hezbollah that work with them. [27] Coalition intelligence has identified several Iraqi resistance groups that are linked to Syrians in Damascus who provide them with funding. It is also possible they receive money from the scores of former Iraqi government officials hiding in Syria. [28]

            Syria’s oppressive nature is still not ending despite Western pressure. On April 13, Syria arrested the head of the Committee for the Defense of Democratic Liberties and Human Rights in Syria, in addition to the hundreds of already detained Kurds. [29]

 

            On the Iranian side of things, sources indicate that there is some sort of talks going on with Iran in regards to the Iraq situation. This became obvious once the US extended the temporary suspension of some sanctions on Iran that were lifted to deliver relief for their earthquake disaster. [30] I hope that we will not compromise. It is well known that al-Sadr’s “Mehdi Army” received limited support from the largest Shiite militia in Iraq, the Badr Brigades (directed by Iran). The militia was formed by the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq, consisting of 30,000 fighters. Moqtada al-Sadr also received help from Ansar al-Islam, after Ansar delegates met with Sadr in April. [31]

            Al-Sadr is directly linked to Khameini’s offices. 1,200 members of the Mehdi Army trained in Iranian camps, including in at least three along the border at Hamid, Ilam and Qasr Shireen. The Iranian embassy in Baghdad transfers equipment including communications gear to the militants. Among the items the embassy and other Iranian outposts have supplied are anti-aircraft missiles, RPG-7 rocket launchers, mortars, and hundreds of advisors from the intelligence branch and Al-Quds branch of the Revolutionary Guard. The Iranians pay Iraqis that provide sensitive intelligence on US military and security $25,000. [32]

            Iran is believed to be using a cleric by the name of Kazem al-Ha’iri in Qum, Iran as a liaison with Moqtada al-Sadr, and to be using another cleric inside Iraq named Hassan Kazemi Qumi, an Iranian Revolutionary Guard officer. [33] The Iranian embassy in Baghdad is used to supply the radical Shiites. Right before Al-Sadr’s revolt, the embassy gave 400 satellite phones to al-Sadr’s militants. Iran allowed al-Sadr to use the Iranian media/propaganda networks as well, and Iran funded him with $80 million in recent months in addition to the training and equipping of his Mehdi Army. [34]

            Iranian intelligence is operating at least 18 covert outposts in Iraq in an effort that already cost nearly $1 billion, according to an Iranian intelligence defector. He said that the centers based in Baghdad, Basra, Karbala, Najaf, Nassariya, and Suleimaniya pretend to be “charities”, but really help the insurgency and try to silence the pro-American Shiite community. The defector reported that there are at least 300 Iranian intelligence agents in 14 cities in Iraq with 2,700 safehouses. [35] The defector also claimed that intelligence operatives of Iran’s al-Quds Army carried out the killing of Ayatollah al-Hakim, who led SCIRI. He claimed they also tried to kill Ayatollah Al-Sistani and Ayatollah Al-Fayadh. [36]

            If anyone doubted that Iran was behind the Shiite troubles, the doubt was lost when former Iranian president Ayatollah Akbarh Hashemi-Rafsanjani (and current chairman of the Expediency Council) said US forces in Iraq were a “wounded monster”, and defeat of the forces was necessary to teach the West a lesson. He very plainly stated that any US vulnerability in Iraq makes Iran stronger, praised al-Sadr’s revolt, said that defeat was needed to guarantee Iranian security, and said that the US trouble was due to “close ties” between the Iranian and Iraqi people. [37]

            According to the Iranian intelligence defector, the next stage in the Iranian campaign is to influence the Shiite majority in parliamentary elections. Iran will try to silent pro-American Shiites, and use their propaganda assets that include over 300 reporters and technicians in the Iraqi media. Should Iran be caught, they will increase the tension. For example, when the Kurds caught Iranian agents, the Revolutionary Guard incited Turkmeni Shiites to revolt, using paid agents inside the community. [38]

            In the Israeli theater, Iran and Syria’s Hezbollah have become the most important factor in the Palestinian terrorist campaign. They funded most of the suicide bombings in recent months, by sending money to Hamas and Islamic Jihad, who have taken authority from some of Arafat’s al-Aqsa Martyr Brigades. Hezbollah plays the lead role in coordinating the joint operations between the three groups. [39] Hamas and Hezbollah signed a cooperation accord, allowing Hezbollah to increase assistance to operations and funding. [40] Iran has also used its links to Hezbollah and Hamas to help the terrorists in Iraq. [41] We know Hamas and Hezbollah have opened offices in Iraq and are running recruitment efforts in Basra and Nasariya. [42]

 

            Iran’s nuclear program, luckily, is becoming closer to being dealt with. The IAEA condemned Iran on April 1, saying inspections were being “managed” by Iran, and they were not allowing inspectors to take pictures with their own high-tech cameras or to use their own electric equipment. Germany, France and the UK quickly condemned Iran’s plans to continue uranium enrichment at Isfahan. [43] Despite this, Iran announces plans to build a heavy water facility in June, which can be used to make weapons-grade plutonium. [44]

            Once the Iraq situation is stabilized, WorldThreats.com does not believe the US will restrain Israel any longer from taking tough action against Arafat. Proof has been obtained that Arafat approved terrorist attacks on American interests in Palestinian territory, leading to the attack on a US embassy convoy that killed three Americans in October 2003. [45]

 

 

 

Europe

            Russia is continuing to take steps towards a totalitarian state. April saw attempts by the Russian parliament to begin banning public demonstrations in most places. [46]

            Spain’s president confirmed he would withdraw 1,300 troops from Iraq. Although that is unfortunate, what is even worse is that the president of the European Commission, Romano Prodi, praised the withdraw, saying it reflects “our” position. [47] The Dominican Republic and Honduras have followed Spain’s example and begun withdrawing troops from Iraq. Poland has said that the option was open depending on the situation, and Thailand has said it will withdraw its troops should they be attacked. [48]

            In Denmark, in response to allegations the country lied about Iraq’s WMDs, the defense minister resigned on April 23. This occurred after an attempt to stifle criticism by declassifying a Danish intelligence report showing that they truly believed that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction. [49]

            In Lithuania, the parliament narrowly decided to impeach the president for leaking classified information and giving citizenship to Russian businesspersons for financial support. The scandal began when a security report was released in October showing that some of his advisors were closely linked to the Russian Mafia and the Russian secret service. [50] This reinforces the warnings WorldThreats.com has issued about the influence of former Communist/KGB personnel in Russian intelligence and in the Russian mob.

            Although France has sided with the US on pressuring Iran and Syria in regards to weapons of mass destruction and sponsorship of terrorism, the French are playing a double-game. As tension with Iran heated up, Chirac claimed relations with Iran were “excellent”, praising the country as a source of stability. This came right after a condemnation of Iran for not fully cooperating with the IAEA. [51]

 

Latin America

            Brazil is coming under fire for refusing to allow the UN to send inspectors to a site being built for uranium enrichment near Rio de Janeiro. [52] Brazil has extensive WMD potential, and is led by a pro-Castro socialist who has allied with Cuba, Venezuela, Iran, China and others. One of the most striking things he said when campaigning was that he supported Brazil withdrawing from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, having uranium enrichment capability, and a nuclear weapons program.

 

Asia

            In South Korea, the Uri Party won a majority victory by winning 299 seats of parliament. This group of leftists wants to engage North Korea for better ties rather than confront the danger that lies ahead. [53] As of right now, though, it seems this is having little effect on relations with South Korea.

            New looks are being taken at Myanmar (Burma). It is known that North Korea offered to sell them surface-to-surface missiles with a range of over 100 miles and potential WMD capability. There is suspicion also that Myanmar has a nuclear program despite being at least decades away from obtaining a nuclear capability unless they are sold a warhead. The outcome of the negotiations is not known. [54]

            A self-proclaimed “anti-American” group called the “Yellow-Red Overseas Organization” sent a letter to the South Korean embassy in Thailand threatening attacks on diplomatic compounds, airlines, and transportation systems in South Korea, Japan, Thailand, Philippines, Australia, Singapore, Kuwait and Pakistan. [55]

            China’s Hutchinson-Whampoa, the world’s largest seaport operator, which is closely tied to the Chinese army remains in control of the world’s strategic seaports. In 1996, this company was identified as a front used by China for military, political and economic espionage. Thus, the Chinese army has control over the strategic ports of:

            Both ends of the Panama Canal

            Buenos Aires, Argentina

            Freeport, Bahamas

            Veracruz, Mexico

            Eight ports in the Philippines

            Jakarta, Indonesia

            Karachi, Pakistan

            Harwich, Felixstowe and Thannesport, United Kingdom

            Rotterdam, Netherlands

            Negotiations for Pusan and Kwangyang, South Korea

            Other ports also in Tanzania, Thailand, and Saudi Arabia, for a total of 136 ports.

 

Africa

            George Bush eased sanctions on Libya this month allowing US companies to invest there. This will provide a source of oil that can help reduce dependency on Saudi Arabia. However, Libyan assets in America remained frozen. Although Libya certainly does appear poised to try to be our best friend in Africa, there are still a few minor issues. State Department counter-terrorism coordinator Cofer Black says Libya is maintaining relations with terrorist groups, but has not ordered or helped them to attack.

            Black also mentioned problems with Sudan. Despite the great progress we have made in turning them around, Sudan has not expelled the officers of Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad. [56] WorldThreats.com is confident that Libya will give in to our demands and that with time, Sudan will also.

            In an attempt to prepare the way to trick UN inspectors, Syria began shipping WMDs to Khartoum, Sudan using civilian airplanes paid by the Defense Ministry including chemical weapons components, SCUD-C missiles and SCUD-D extended-range missiles in an effort that began in January 2004.  Up to ten aircraft carried sensitive material each month full of those items as well as launchers and precursor chemicals, listed as “medical equipment”. It appears Syria intended to use these items in their “civilian” projects in Sudan supposedly related to agriculture, food and transportation. [57] Soon after this report, Sudan ordered the removal of the Syrian materials after the Defense and the Interior Ministry concluded the intelligence was accurate. Sudan apparently was worried it would delay talks with the US to get the sanctions lifted. [58]

            New urgency was sensed about North Korea, despite their pledge to continue multilateral talks, because of the testimony of Abdul Qadeer Khan. This former head of the Pakistani nuclear black market has testified that when he went to North Korea in 1999 he was taken to an underground nuclear power plant, and personally saw three nuclear weapons. This means that previous estimates are wrong and the real number of the arsenal is likely much higher. [59] A revised US intelligence report will raise the estimate of North Korea’s arsenal from “possibly two” to at least eight, and will estimate that North Korea’s uranium enrichment program will be operational in 2007, allowing for six more weapons each year. [60]

            Luckily, the director of the Missile Defense Agency says he believes we will be able to protect America from North Korea’s nuclear missiles by the end of 2004 due to the activation of an anti-ballistic missile system. [61]

 

Miscellaneous

            WorldThreats.com received this letter but cannot confirm its authenticity. Nevertheless, we believe it provides a great picture of what is really going on in Iraq. This is reportedly a letter from Ray Reynolds, a medic in the Iowa Army National Guard:

            “As I head off to Baghdad for the final weeks of my stay in Iraq, I wanted to say thanks to all of you who did not believe the media. They have done a very poor job of covering everything that has happened. I am sorry that I have not been able to visit all of you during my two week leave back home. And just so you can rest at night knowing something is happening in Iraq that is noteworthy, I thought I would pass this on to you. This is the list of things that has happened in