War on Terrorism
In its recent, expansive report, the 9/11 Commission concluded that, for over a decade, Osama bin Laden, and his terrorist affiliates, have sought to produce a “Hiroshima”-scale nuclear event, on US soil. The Report also revealed that, in 1998, associates of bin Laden warned that they were intent on conducting such an attack and, as late as 2004, al-Qaeda stated that the acquisition of weapons of mass destruction was a “religious obligation”.
The 9/11 Commission reached the startling conclusion that, if al-Qaeda can obtain highly enriched uranium, or plutonium, the size of an “orange or grapefruit”, all they would need would be a trained nuclear engineer, and nuclear components, which are available on the commercial market.
This last month, al-Qaeda had a clear focus on Europe, specifically Italy, details of which may be reviewed at:

http://www.worldthreats.com/europe/Warning%20To%20Italy.htm

A group claiming to be tied to al-Qaeda, the “Abu Hafs Martyr Brigades” (likely a non-existent group used by al-Qaeda affiliates to give sometimes exaggerated speeches and declarations), threatened Italy on August 7th, warning they would strike after the August 15th deadline they had given for US troops to withdraw from Iraq. Another previously unknown group, calling themselves the “Abu Bakr al-Seddiq Brigades”, followed up by threatening to attack Denmark and El Salvador. Still another group, calling itself the “Group of Islamic Monotheism”, posted an online statement threatening Italy, and the Netherlands.
One of the most complex aspects of the War on Terrorism is how al-Qaeda is able to regroup, and new leaders emerge, requiring new intelligence efforts. The Pakistanis, after concluding an offensive that netted key al-Qaeda suspects, reported that the new top operational chief of al-Qaeda is now a Libyan, named Abu Faraj Farj, who led the effort to assassinate President Musharraf. The Pakistanis claimed that Abu Faraj Farj commands a network of sleeper cells in the West, heads al-Qaeda’s covert operations in Pakistan, and is on the run, with an Egyptian, named Hamzia Rabia. And finally, the “Mohammed Atta Brigades” gave El Salvador until August 26 to leave Iraq.
To facilitate the War on Terrorism, the US announced plans to withdraw 70,000 troops from Europe and Asia, with two-thirds of the reductions occurring in Europe—primarily Germany. The US plans to maintain smaller, more widely positioned bases, including facilities in Eastern Europe. The plan reportedly offsets the cuts with deployments of the US’s most sophisticated technology and subsequent realignments, including the possibility of the Air Force sending heavy bombers and F/A-22 jets to Guam. Opponents of Bush criticized the plan, claiming it reduces US ability to negotiate, from a position of evident strength, with North Korea, and further claimed that it weakens our overall overseas deployment capabilities. Others have stated that the proposed cuts don’t go far enough.

Middle East
In a development that went largely uncovered, or at least unreported, by the media, the Iranian Defense Ministry admitted they were producing Iran’s first stealth missile that can evade modern means of electronic detection.

Iraq’s neighboring nations, most likely Syria and Iran, have been implicated in the recent wave of kidnappings. One of the most senior commanders of the Iraqi National Guard has stated that individuals, recently arrested for planning the kidnapping of foreigners in Iraq, have admitted that “neighboring countries” had trained them, and had even ordered their deployment to Iraq. The Iraqi interior minister stated that at least 270 foreign terrorists, operating in Iraq, had entered the country, via Syria and Iran. He blamed the insurgency on Iranian terrorists, some of the 28,000 criminals that Saddam released before the war, and their cooperation with al-Qaeda operatives and Baathist remnants.
Iran’s continued assistance to the insurgency, and especially the revival of Moqtada al-Sadr’s revolt, prompted the Iraqi defense minister to condemn Iran as “trying to destroy Iraq and obliterate its national identity.” The governor of Najaf followed, by accusing Iran of allying itself with al-Sadr’s Mehdi Army. The governor noted that the Iraqis had captured one of the militia’s grenade launchers; that it was labeled “Made in Iran”, and further, that residents are reporting that most of the mortar shells, being used by the insurgents, have the same label.

Iran was also implicated in fighting, elsewhere in Iraq. In Karbala, the Iraqis captured nine Afghans and ten Iranians (reports indicate Iran has recruited Afghans who escaped into Iran), for involvement in terrorism. In Baghdad, Iraqi intelligence captured four Iranian intelligence officers in Baghdad, who were involved in spying and sabotage. In Kut, thirty Iranians were caught fighting for al-Sadr, resulting in an Iraqi government meeting concerning the Iranian intervention. On August 11, two trucks full of weapons, destined for the Mehdi Army, were intercepted on the Iranian border. And these are only the incidents, of which we’ve learned, so far.
More recently, Islamic Jihad, which is backed by Iran, and to a lesser degree, Syria, has called for attacks on the Iraqi oil industry, and has announces its support for Moqtada al-Sadr. This strategy is clearly intended to widen the war against Coalition forces, by bringing in all sorts of radical Islamists, rather than relying on a single Iraqi Shiite front.

US intelligence has concluded that Abu Musab al-Zarqawi has not been in Iraq since late June. He has spent time in Syria, and more recently, in Iran, where he relays funding, and plans operations. He was last seen at a meeting on June 18, at Dour, near Baghdad, with Izzat Ibrahim al-Dour, the leader of the Baathist resistance. Zarqawi then went to Marivan, in northern Iran, and has remained there in recent months. Zarqawi is believed to have recently left Iran for Baqubah, Iraq. Zarqawi is reportedly feeling safe in his movements, in and out of Iraq, because, since he and twenty of his high level associates aren’t required previous Iranian approval to reenter their country, he can easily slip back into Iran.

Any doubt about Iran’s support for anti-democracy terrorist forces in Iraq were put to rest in mid-August. The commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard called for Iraqis “to unite in resistance against the American occupier, and against its massacre of an innocent population”, and claimed, “a second Vietnam is anticipated for it soon.”
Finally, the media is paying attention to Iran’s contribution to terrorism. The 9/11 Commission Report concluded that, eight months before 9/11, Ramzi bin al-Shibh received a 4-week visa to Iran, staying in Tehran before meeting with al-Qaeda chiefs in Afghanistan. German government documents state that he applied for the visa on December 20, 2000.

All this recent tension culminated in a shocking threat from Iran’s defense minister: Pre-emptive attacks throughout the region, including assaults against Americans, would be “justified” if Iran felt Israel was preparing to bomb Iranian nuclear facilities. The Iranians warned they could hold US forces hostage in Iraq, and this would be “justifiable” because, they contend, Israel would not undertake such an action, without US consent. The threat was followed by warnings that the Iranians could attack Israel’s Dimona nuclear reactor, likely as a result of the successful implementation of a Chinese missile navigation system, in their Shihab-3 missile.

These recent Iranian threats and warnings portend potentially deadly consequences in the region, considering how soon Iran may become a nuclear power. The Iranians reportedly have informed the British, French and Germans that, if they so chose, they could enrich enough uranium, for a nuclear weapon, by late 2005.
A positive development, in Iraq, came from Grand Ayatollah Al-Sistani, who issued an edict prohibiting Shiite clergymen from discussing politics and attempting to influence voters. This is obviously a blow to Iran’s attempts to use its influence, in southern Iraq, to manipulate the elections.

In another potentially positive development, the “Islamic Army in Iraq” has stated it has captured an Iranian diplomat, in response to Iranian interference in Iraqi affairs. At this time, it is unknown if the Iraqis, or the West, somehow played a role in this, or if this is just Iran’s tactics backfiring.

Some of the justification for war with Saddam Hussein was his continued detention of POWs, including Iranians, Kuwaitis, and even an American. Ironically, Iran may be accused of the same thing. The head of Iraq’s Committee of MIAs and Political Detainees, Mohammed Daham has accused the Kuwaitis of having sold over 13,000 Iraqi Gulf War POWs, to Iran, in 1991. Iran has denied the charges.

This month’s developments in the continuing search for weapons of mass destruction in Iraq were dramatic. Iraq Survey Group chief, Charles Duelfer, concluded that Saddam Hussein had an active nuclear program, until just prior to the commencement of Operation Iraqi Freedom, and that the Iraqis had been preserving, and even expanding, their knowledge and expertise, regarding the design and production of nuclear weapons. Duelfer also reported discovering at least one laboratory specifically constructed for nuclear-related research, and further, that the facility was financed with moneys from the corrupt UN Oil-For-Food program.

The ISG has acknowledged discovering evidence that could indicate Syria is harboring Iraqi weapons of mass destruction. The ISG concluded that, in recent years, Saddam Hussein “periodically” replaced Iraqi guards, on the Syrian border, with Iraqi intelligence agents, who oversaw the movement of illegal and banned materials between the two countries. Iraqi prisoners have confirmed this and, while the ISG can conclude these switches did occur, in the months before Operation Iraqi Freedom, they cannot however, conclude the timing of the switches coincided with the intense cross-border movement that some have suspected of involving WMD transportation.
Should these claims prove to be true, it would significantly bolsters anti-Syrian arguments. Some argue that Syria, as a threat to the US, must be dealt with differently. While it is highly unlikely Syria’s nuclear program is advanced, it may be developed further than some have suspected. According to some reports, US intelligence now believes Syria has acquired at least some Pakistani centrifuges for uranium enrichment. They believe the centrifuges were acquired in 2001, from Abdul Qadeer Khan, in an effort orchestrated by Mustafa Tlas. They also believe Khan shipped centrifuges to Saddam Hussein, using Syria as a transport hub.

Despite these recent developments, there is some continuing positive news, regarding the advance of human rights in Syria. Amid reports of Kurds being arrested, tortured, even killed, 91 political prisoners, including the most “veteran” prisoner (in custody for thirty years) have been released.

New evidence has been uncovered recently, that indicates Syria is directly involved in the training of al-Qaeda operatives. Previously, it was known only that Syria granted safe passage to al-Qaeda operatives. Now, British raids, in northwest London, have discovered evidence that two al-Qaeda operatives, captured for having roles in plots against the UK, indeed, trained in Syria, with Palestinian Islamic Jihad and Hamas.

Although Saudi Arabia remains a significant US foreign policy problem, and is certainly far from becoming an exemplary model of human rights and liberty, some progress was made, in late July. Saudi Arabia completed plans for the formation and administration of the country’s first human rights committee; said to be established soon. Also for the first time, the Saudis have allowed a non-government human rights committee to begin work.
Disturbingly, Saudi Arabia is leading the effort to create a Muslim coalition to enter Iraq. Unfortunately, the Saudis are demanding that this force replace Coalition forces, not supplement them. The Saudis claim that six Islamic countries have responded positively to their proposal, and Gulf states have agreed to allocate $2 billion to finance the effort—but only if their troops replace the American presence.

Regarding another US semi-ally, US intelligence has reportedly accused the Wahhabist country of Qatar of not doing enough in the War on Terrorism. Qatar routinely allows al-Qaeda to operate freely within its borders and security services reportedly do little more than monitor terrorist activity. This report suggests some seriously dangerous activity in Qatar, because this is an ally the US values greatly for its strategy in the region.
Russia is reportedly rebuilding its intelligence networks in the Middle East, with its primary focus on Israel, with Saudi Arabia second. Exploiting the Russian immigrant community in Israel, Russia is attempting to infiltrate the Israeli government, foreign ministry, and defense sectors. Among the Russians foremost objectives, in Israel, is the acquisition of US and Israeli technology, particularly related to missile defenses.

In Saudi Arabia, Russian diplomats are reportedly assisting these intelligence efforts, by playing on fears of instability, and attempting to influence the Saudis into abandoning the US, so the Russians would be free to sell the Saudis advanced weaponry, and operate their oil fields. Russian intelligence is also attempting to obtain US and Saudi high-tech secrets. To further their agenda, the Russians are exploiting their allies—some would call them puppets—to sell arms to enemies of the US. US intelligence has included that, among others, Russia is utilizing the Ukraine to market weapons to Syria, Iran, Egypt, Sudan, etc.

Africa
In another indication that Libya has not excluded the use of state sponsored terrorism to achieve their goals, a new group calling itself the “Martyrs of Qaddafi” has threatened to murder anyone who attempts to investigate the disappearance of Ayatollah Mussa al-Sadr. He was a very powerful, and popular Lebanese Shiite cleric, who disappeared, in Libya, in the 1970s, and many believe Qaddafi was behind the cleric’s disappearance. Additionally, new disputes with Libya have arisen during August. Libya has agreed to pay $35 million for the 1986 disco bombing, in Berlin that killed 3 people, but has refused to pay compensation for American victims.
Under intense pressure, the Sudanese government has recently admitted it does have some level of control over the Janjaweed militia. Their admission occurred soon after the UN concluded that Sudan was sponsoring activities of militia involved in atrocities. The London Sunday Telegraph has reported that Sudanese government agents have been observed, training militia members, at secret camps, designed to train soldiers for guerilla warfare. At these training sites, militia members are reportedly planning guerilla warfare against foreign peacekeepers, should they be deployed. The Sudanese are also reportedly merging some of the Janajaweed into the Sudanese security forces. Analysts, promoting trust with Sudan, are faced with, not only this situation, but the fact that President Omar Bashir has upped his anti-Western, radical Islamic rhetoric, which included denouncing the deployment of peacekeepers.
On a positive note, Algeria did manage to pass several reforms relating to family law, primarily regarding women’s rights.

Asia
Jane’s Defense Weekly is reporting that North Korea is realizing some breakthroughs in their efforts to facilitate their capabilities for conducting nuclear warfare. North Korea is reportedly readying deployment of new land and sea-based ballistic missiles, capable of being fitted with nuclear warheads, that may have sufficient range to threaten the US. Reportedly, during the 1990s, the Koreans acquired the technical expertise for producing these missiles, from Russian missile specialists and, by purchasing twelve decommissioned ex-Soviet-era submarines that were sold for scrap metal. The Koreans managed to salvage crucial missile launch components from these vessels. According to South Korean intelligence, North Korea is expected to deploy ten mobile ballistic missiles by September, with ranges of up to 2,600 miles.
Recently, Pakistan has been responding, favorably, to pressure to act on terrorism. Approximately thirty al-Qaeda operatives, including several high-level individuals, have been captured, resulting also in the capture of key files, and the destruction of a portion of an al-Qaeda email communications network. Even though Pakistani intelligence is infested with Islamic radicals, and much more needs to be accomplished, Musharraf does deserve credit for his recent efforts.

China has been reasserting its significance in US foreign policy. China is continuing to wage a belligerent campaign to destabilize Taiwan, and is preparing the grounds for a possible invasion. Currently, China is preparing to implement a “unification law” that would allow it to justify future aggression against any province—or alleged province—that aims to secede. This new “law” would allow the Chinese the “legal justification” they may one day require, to invade Taiwan.

These developments require a strict, competitive policy with China, while remaining a rival, not a clear and present enemy. Endemic US foreign policy passivity towards Chinese ambition has resulted in China rapidly modernizing its military power, which will most certainly, at some point, be wielded against the US. This is precisely why some analysts, particularly on the conservative side, are openly critical of the appointment of CIA analyst, Dennis Wilder, as the NSA’s top China specialist. Among the agency’s senior policy developers, Wilder is one of the most consistent advocates of a passive US foreign policy with regard to China.

Other news this month, regarding China, includes reports that the Chinese are continuing to assist Iran with its banned weapons programs. The Washington Times of August 23, 2004 reported that Western intelligence is aware that China was still contravening its previous assurances that it would no longer supply missile-related technology to Iran.
In Russia recently, a string of terrorist attacks has occurred. It is not known if these incidents played a role in the Chechen elections, to replace Russian-backed president, Akhmad Kadyrov, in May 2004. The Russian favorite won the elections, but the opposition claims fraud was involved—a common accusation, not always without basis, throughout the former USSR, where Russia is asserting its inherited Soviet-era sphere of influence. Alu Alkhanov will now be leader of Chechnya, a definite plus for Russia’s ambitions. Candidate Abdullah Bugayev’s campaign claims to have observed many illegal activities during the election of Alkhanov. It was reported that an Alkhanov campaign worker was observed ordering voters to cast their ballots for the Russian favorite. Another candidate, Mousur Khamidov claimed that, shortly before polling even began, his campaign staff discovered ballot boxes, stuffed with votes for Alkhanov.

Latin America
In a stunning election upset, incumbent Venezuelan president, Hugo Chavez, managed to overcome a recent referendum, with 58% voting in favor of his administration, and 42% opposed. Previous polls had indicated a potential landslide victory for Chavez’s opposition. Opposition spokespersons claim that Chavez is guilty of fraud, but no evidence has been found to support their allegations. Nonetheless, Chavez’s record of past corruption does suggest that some basis exists to support suspicions, and speculations, regarding elections fraud.

Latin America is the sole remaining world area that has been relatively free of infiltration by al-Qaeda and its associates. Intelligence, this month, indicates that Latin America may soon fall victim to the terrorists. Recently, governments throughout Latin America, including Mexico, issued alert after information was received that indicated al-Qaeda operatives were seeking recruits in, and safe passage through, their respective countries. Central to the investigation was Adnan El-Shukrijumah, a Saudi pilot, who commands an al-Qaeda cell, believed to be endeavoring to infiltrate the US. In June 2004, Honduras reported sightings of El-Shukrijumah in the capital, and Panama believes he traveled through their country prior to 9/11. El-Shukrijumah is one of al-Qaeda’s key commanders for this region. Additionally, Israeli intelligence believes he has connections to criminal elements in Mexico, and may be behind the theft of radioactive materials from McMaster University.