Monthly Analysis: December 2003

Compiled By: Ryan Mauro

tdcanalyst@optonline.net

 

 

 

            Over the course of December, there were many developments that shook the world. From the capture of Saddam Hussein to the apparent change of heart by Muammar Qadhafi of Libya, it is now becoming apparent that the War on Terrorism is taking new shape. This new periodic analysis will discuss the developments of each period of time in the title, and try to tie things in together.

 

War on Terrorism

            Despite the obvious success in the War on Terror, we remain on high alert.  Understandably, the Bush Administration is not releasing much information about the threats that led to the Orange Alert. However, we do know that on Christmas Eve, six Air France flights to Los Angeles were cancelled due to speculation they may be used for a 9-11-like terrorist attack (on Las Vegas and possibly L.A.), and because on one of the flights was an Al-Qaeda operative with a commercial pilot license. This incident confirms that the Western intelligence communities were successful in detecting that a plot to use foreign airports for take-off of targeted airliners was in the works. Because of the holiday season, and obvious Western victories in the War on Terror, Al-Qaeda and other terrorists are desperate for a 911-level attack. Their prestige and support depends on it. There have been no spectacular terrorist attacks since September 11th in America, and not in Europe. The Taliban has been toppled, and Iraq was successfully invaded without the much expected retaliatory attacks from Iraqi intelligence and Al-Qaeda. The four times the US has gone to Orange Alert there has been no major Al-Qaeda attack inside America, bringing a further blow to their prestige. Additionally, this shows the rhetoric of the terrorist propaganda machine to be untrustworthy—a mighty, mighty blow to the perception that Osama Bin Laden’s militants can strike whenever, wherever in an almost supernatural manner. The idea that this is “Allah’s war” is beginning to lose credibility due to the success of the West, and the quick collapse of evil regimes that try to justify their despotism using claims of being close to Allah.

            From all this, it should be understood that Al-Qaeda is trying hard to strike at the United States. The effect of Saddam’s capture on state sponsors is even more interesting. It appears that some countries, like Iran and Syria, are scared they are next, and thus are mobilizing new terror offensives. Doug Hagmann’s Northeast Intelligence Network (HomelandSecurityUS.com) has detected chatter from terrorists in Syria calling for renewed terrorism in Iraq and throughout the region in order to bog down Coalition forces, so that the West remain unable to invade. The same thinking can be applied to Iran, who also wants to hijack the Coalition victory to establish a pro-Iran regime in Iraq. Other state sponsors like Libya are getting the message that the glory they want in the world no longer can come from posturing as an anti-American figure. Instead, embracing the War on Terror, and “coming clean” is much more honorable, and much safer for the regime.

            The attacks meant to be launched by Al-Qaeda (likely some have been aborted or foiled), were to be multi-faceted, involving airline hijackings, and attacks with truck bombs. An intricate part of this scheme involved a female suicide bomber that intended to attack New York City. Tactics are changing. Dr. Al-Ani, a terrorism expert at Oxford University, says Al-Qaeda now has chosen to target Arabs and Muslims in an attempt to topple pro-American governments and to limit Arab-American cooperation. They have also begun targeting boys between 16 and 17 years old for recruitment, and allowing operatives to disguise as women. [1] Another unique tactic being tried out, according to a US intelligence report, is for Pakistani operatives to pose as aides to disabled travelers, allowing them to get visas to travel to the US and the UK. The specific plot aims for an attack using this method in April 2004. [2] As stated, Al-Qaeda is not afraid of change or evolution. Terrorist Internet chatter and other intercepted communications indicate that terrorists have infiltrated from Canada (pictures of these operatives have surfaced on web forums) and that other operatives, possibly hired as airline pilots, were to crash aircraft into major cities. The warning for Muslims to leave Los Angeles, New York City and Washington DC has been issued again, along with calls for attacks by prominent radical clerics. The “chatter” remains at a level not seen since 9-11, coinciding with the release of suspicious tapes by Ayman Al-Zawahiri and Osama Bin Laden.

            According to the intelligence gathering of Steve Quayle (www.stevequayle.com) and the Northeast Intelligence Network (HomelandSecurityUS.com), the wave of attacks involved at least four to five “squads” consisting of four to five terrorists in each squad (very similar to 911). Much of the “chatter” indicated use of chemical and biological weapons and either radioactive “dirty” bombs or suitcase nukes (pictures of such weapons are showing up and suddenly disappearing on Internet forums). Al-Qaeda is also promising a major attack (reportedly code-named Operation Cave of Darkness), meant to cause more damage than 9-11, by February 2, 2004 (coinciding with a Muslim holiday). Al-Qaeda also nearly guaranteed an attack during Ramadan, thus playing a very dangerous gambling game with their credibility and ability to generate support. All this points to an intense effort to pull off a major attack as soon as possible.

            Both the workings of the Northeast Intelligence Network and that of Steve Quayle’s sources indicate targeting of not only the three cities mentioned but Chicago and Las Vegas. Additional intelligence, according to press reports, showed targeting of Alaska’s oil riches, as well as rural areas and small towns to generate the perception that no one is safe, anywhere. This would also cause panic in the major cities.  The attacks may also include remote-controlled model aircraft, as US aircraft, according to Quayle and the Northeast Intelligence Network, have been spotted chasing such aircraft around New York City and Washington DC in the days before Christmas Eve (when the French flights were cancelled). Quayle, who has far-reaching sources, says that intelligence leading to the heightened alert indicated a new wave of attacks on America and the United Kingdom (London specifically), involving stolen cargo planes loaded with explosives and/or weapons of mass destruction. Remote-controlled aircraft meant to spray biological agents were also mentioned, including their possible role in dispersing anthrax over New York City. An increased threat from radiological bombs and/or suitcase nukes was also picked up. [3] The chemical and biological threat has been enough to cause the FBI to issue a special warning that Al-Qaeda may use such agents on the homeland, using a “crude chemical dispersal device”. The warning said to look out for a bitter almond smell, which is similar to the smell from the use of cyanide and chlorine gas weapons. It warns that it is a top terrorist objective to use such agents in America. [4]

            Credible intelligence also indicates that the newly released but previously recorded tape of Osama Bin Laden was to precede attacks, and to coincide with final Al-Qaeda warnings to the West. Significant chatter indicates that a new videotape of Bin Laden is to be released immediately after a spectacular attack on America, and that after these initial attacks, either in separate Al-Qaeda statements or in the videotape, another warning is to be given, to be followed by a second wave of attacks. The Saudi weekly Al-Majallah recently confirmed this intelligence, saying that an Al-Qaeda spokesman named Abu Mohammed al-Ablaj is telling them that a new Bin Laden videotape is to be released after the next major attack. The speaker, who in the past has warned of operations in specific terms and has predicted the release of tapes of important terrorist figures, is deemed to be credible. [5]

            It does seem likely that Al-Qaeda will focus on using the airlines to some extent in the future, as it is their signature. The economic damage, and panic caused by 9-11 was the most Al-Qaeda could ask for (with the exception of a detonation of a nuclear weapon).  Airlines need to remain the focal point of anti-terrorism efforts.

           

 

                                                Middle East

            This website has reportedly extensively on the links between terrorists, specifically Al-Qaeda, and the former regime of Saddam Hussein in Iraq. Still, new information is coming out. Iraqi contact with Al-Qaeda prior to September 11th, 2001 has been confirmed again, and this report adds to it saying that Iraq imported Al-Qaeda forces, with the help of Saudi nationals, in an attempt to prepare for a war with the United States. The Fedayeen Saddam trained these forces at Salman Pak and Nahrawan (as previously reported here). At Salman Pak, according to one Iraqi detainee, Al-Qaeda operatives were indeed trained in the hijacking of airliners. The Iraqi officer told his interrogators that he saw about 100 Al-Qaeda operatives, mostly Saudis, arrive in July 2001 for a “secret mission” under the leadership of a radical cleric named Mohammed. After training was completed, most operatives left Iraq only to return to fight Coalition forces. The cleric Mohammed however, stayed in Iraq despite the departure. [6] Newsmax.com also has information that not only Mohammed Atta, the lead 9-11 hijacker, had ties to Abu Nidal in Baghdad but also did Ziad Jarrah, who piloted the airplane that crashed in Pennsylvania. In the much talked about Hamburg cell, there were three key Al-Qaeda operatives planning 9-11, consisting of Jarrah, Atta and a man named Marwan al-Shehhi (flew an airplane into the World Trade Center). One of Jarrah’s closest relatives, his great-uncle, Assem Omar Jarrah, worked for a long time for Stasi, East German intelligence while maintaining connections to Abu Nidal. This uncle transported Ziad Jarrah around Germany and even paid for his apartment. Two weeks prior to 9-11, Assem Jarrah disappeared and has not been seen since. [7]

            The capture of Saddam Hussein is a major, major breakthrough. Perhaps the greatest effect is the psychological element. The whole idea of the guerilla war was to shake Coalition resolve, because the enemy is well aware that the American media thrives off of negative coverage, and that the American people generally are not patient, and very sensitive to casualties. The capture of Saddam took a long time, but it was achieved. And now the support for the war has gone back up.

            Another way to look at it is that the elements loyal to Saddam’s Ba’athist rule saw him as a warrior that would fight and die rather than surrender. However, we clearly see Saddam giving up without a fight. He had thousands die for him, yet he wouldn’t do the same. This puts in question the entire ideology that causes people to follow dictators and psychopathic leaders, Osama Bin Laden included. That effect simply cannot be overstated. I was one of the first to point that Saddam’s capture, despite common belief, would have a dramatic effect on the guerilla war. He was caught with $750,000, and he is, if nothing else, the symbolism for the continuation of the guerilla war. The level of intelligence gathered from his capture is enormous, leading to hundreds of arrests, and indirectly leading to cooperation of those previously reluctant to do so. With Saddam gone, more Iraqis will provide tips and play a more active role in fighting the war. Soon after Saddam was captured, record numbers of people from the dreaded Sunni Triangle, the area most loyal to Saddam, volunteered for roles in security forces. [8]   Indeed, for weeks after the capture, the level of attacks decreased dramatically. Around Christmas, a new spike occurred, but one could expect this because this is the time of year that the Ba’athist remains and Islamic extremists would want to turn up the heat. Additionally, a majority of the new attacks do appear to come from Islamic extremists, rather than Ba’athist loyalists. However, some elements of the Iraqi intelligence services do remain, and according to some reporting, have even left Iraq to conduct a new assassination campaign aimed against Arab leaders that in their view didn’t do enough to stop the Coalition invasion. [9] Attacks will probably spike in the first week of January, due to New Years’, and also because of the 83rd anniversary of the creation of the Iraqi army (Jan. 6), which Iraqi sources claim is when Saddam planned to announce the creation of a new rival army consisting of 12,000 soldiers from the Ba’ath Party, the Presidential Guard, and Fedayeen Saddam. [10] However, it is still probable that the Islamic extremists will increasingly take the lead in the fight. According to Newsweek, in November Osama Bin Laden told the Taliban forces in Afghanistan that funding to their fight would have to be cut in half to $1.5 million monthly, because plans were made for over 1,000 extremists to travel to Iraq to fight Coalition forces. Sources in the Taliban also mentioned that some 350 Al-Qaeda were in Waziristan, Pakistan, but nearly half have left for the Middle East. [11]

            There is also new testimony that says that contrary to the allegations of opposing politicians in Britain and America, Iraq did indeed have the capability to use WMDs in 45 minutes. Lt.-Colonel al-Dabbagh, former head of an Iraqi air defense unit in the western desert, told the London Sunday Telegraph that he is the source for the claim. In the interview, he said that cases containing WMD warheads (from factories on the outskirts of Baghdad) were delivered to front-line units including his own at the end of 2002, to be used by Fedayeen units and the Special Republican Guard once the war hit a “critical point”. The lieutenant-colonel stands by his claim, saying that the weapons, designed to be launched by hand-held rocket-propelled grenades, could be launched in as little time as 30 minutes. He says Iraqi officers referred to the weapons as “the secret weapon”, and that local army commanders were not allowed to use them unless they were on the direct orders of Saddam Hussein. However, the Iraqi army was not loyal so they were not used. Al-Dabbagh says the weapons are now hidden at secret sites inside Iraq, and people will only begin revealing the sites once they know Saddam. [12]

Regarding WMDs, hopefully Libya’s turnaround will lead to more information regarding the programs of Iran and Iraq. Both Iran and Iraq had a role in Libya’s ballistic missile and nuclear programs, and it is the belief of myself and others that a large portion of Iraq’s nuclear program is in Libya (a joint program) which is why David Kay has been unable to find the proof of an Iraqi nuke program. Perhaps Libya will even turn over the scores of Iraqi nuclear scientists in Libya, allowing new intelligence on the Iraqi program. It is believed there are also North Korean nuclear scientists in Libya, another great opportunity for Qadhafi to mend ties with the West. According to Israeli intelligence, North Korean technicians, scientists and engineers are at Libya’s Kufra nuclear site, along with between 200 and 300 Iraqi nuclear scientists (as part of the secret Saddam-Qadhafi nuclear cooperation). [13] Iraq’s banned weapons are also being tracked. Israeli intelligence claims that the US effort under David Kay is “homing in on” Iraq’s banned weapons in Syria’s northern al-Jazirah province which lies between the Iraqi and Turkish borders. More specifically, they are monitoring a section of the desert area known as Dayr Az-Zawr, under which the weapons are. [14] Former weapons inspector Tim Trevan has also floated the possibility that the Fedayeen may have hidden the chemical and biological weapons or even be carrying them along, but is not using them because it will hurt the overall objectives of the war (showing Saddam as guilty would be a devastating blow to the psychological war). If such weapons are found, the claim that Saddam was illegally overthrown will be discredited. [15]

            Iran also remains a problem in the War on Terrorism. It is now believed that the leader of Hezbollah, a group sponsored by Iran (and some would argue, operates as a puppet of Iran), Imad Mughniyah, is in Iraq preparing new attacks on Coalition forces. [16] It is also being confirmed that the nuclear programs of many Middle Eastern countries were linked. The change of heart by Libya is revealing this, as well as Iran’s leading role in equipping potential enemies of freedom with weapons of mass destruction. Throughout the 1990s, Iran sold short and medium-range ballistic missiles to Libya, and in recent years, allowed Libyan military delegations to visit Iran’s nuclear facilities at Isfahan and Kashan to learn about uranium enrichment and the production of heavy water. Additionally, at least one of the centrifuges in Libya observed by British and American experts was from Iran. [17] Iran is also still housing Al-Qaeda leaders, possibly including Osama Bin Laden and Ayman Al-Zawahiri (as previously noted on this website). A “respected Islamic leader” has told WorldNetDaily.com that a group of Arabs he knows that live in the desert shared by Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan (Baluchistan), tell him that Osama fled to Iran when the Pakistani military raided the areas. The leader also said that Zawahiri is in Iran with Bin Laden, near the Pakistani border along with agents of Pakistan’s ISI intelligence service. He dismissed Iran’s claims that Zawahiri escaped as false. [18] This confirms the previous reporting on this site. In response to such allegations, Iranian president Khatami has admitted that the country is holding 130 Al-Qaeda operatives [19] (which begs the question, what does “holding” exactly mean? How restricted are they?) and that most of them will be tried in Iran for crimes in Iran. The rest will be extradited. This bothers me because Al-Qaeda does not target Iran, so it is obvious to me that Iran plans show trials, or to put them in prison and allow them to continue their work. The ones who are extradited to other countries (Iran has ruled out extraditions to Europe, Israel or the US) will likely have been coached on what to say and in anti-interrogation methods. However, for a long time Iran has been saying extraditions would occur, but none have.

            Iran’s nuclear program remains undeterred, although hopefully, the removal of Libya as an assistant will slow it down. Iran has agreed to sign the Additional Protocol of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty allowing surprise inspections of nuclear sites, [20] however it will likely be months before it is ratified by parliament and then by the Supreme Leader. According to Israeli intelligence, Iran planned on the delivery of key components for its nuclear program from Libya, which now won’t occur. The Israelis say that Iran, North Korea, Iraq, Syria, Egypt, and even Saudi Arabia had invested in Libya’s nuclear program, centered around Kufra, and are at a loss due to Qadhafi’s betrayal of the rogue states. It seems unlikely that Iran will disarm its nuclear program like Libya did, because Iran has recently bought an advanced 300-A air defense system from Russia to defend the Bushehr nuclear reactor. [21]

            Syria, another rogue state, is undoubtedly feeling the pressure of Saddam’s capture and Libya’s betrayal. Already there is talk of a plan made between Germany, France and Great Britain to pressure Syria on terrorism and weapons of mass destruction. [22] The US has identified over $1 billion of Iraqi assets in the banks of Syria, Lebanon and Jordan, and these three countries (mostly Syria) had illegal business with Saddam Hussein. Jordan, a Western ally, will need to be “cleansed” of Saddam loyalists because of a sizeable pro-Saddam population there. In fact, a group of 13 opposition parties recently issued a joint statement declaring Saddam the president of Iraq despite his capture, and demanding that America restore his rule. [23] Captured documents show that Saddam diverted at least $1.8 billion from the UN’s “Oil For Food Program”, and moved some of the stolen funds to foreign banks to buy illegal weapons. According to the documents, Saddam made some $3.3 billion between June 2000 and March 2003, in violation of UN sanctions. It is believed that $495 million is now in Lebanon, $800 million is in Jordan, and $2 billion is in Syria. Syria however claims to have only $175 million of Iraqi assets, and is even refusing to hand that money over to Iraq. [24] Syria is playing a key role in the survival of the guerilla war in Iraq [25] , and in possibly hiding some of Saddam’s banned weapons. [26] Syria is also still supporting terrorism, and trying to repress dissent. Recently someone sent a booby-trapped letter to the chief editor of Al-Siyyisah who has written a lot lately criticizing Syria. The letter was mailed from Lebanon. [27] The Turkish Interior Minister is also reporting that Syria is still supporting terrorism, claiming that the primary suspect in the bombings in Istanbul has fled to Syria along with other suspected terrorists. [28]

            A new report by the US Institute for Peace (please note, this is generally an anti-Bush Administration institute), says that Iran and Syria will be targeted next, in the most difficult stage yet of the War on Terrorism. The report warned against military action, saying that the people there are more loyal to their governments than in Iraq, and that US pressure would increase the determination of the governments and of the populace. The report also argued that Iran would require much larger military forces than Iraq did (they are likely right), but Syria will not. It warned that such action would result in strong terrorist retaliation by Hezbollah, which the report claims, can launch attacks deadlier than 9-11. It also predicted a war in Lebanon, and that there would be a long-term guerilla war in Lebanon should it occur. The report also said such a new phase would do little in the War on Terrorism, as there would be few terror targets to destroy. [29] Of course, WorldThreats.com’s reports contradict these claims.

 

                                                Africa

            While Zimbabwe continues to have immense problems that have led for calls of regime change by Colin Powell, it is interesting to note that South Africa, governed by the Communist ANC, is propping up the regime. Libya also plays an important role in propping up Marxist-Leninist dictatorships throughout Africa. Hopefully, the West can pressure Libya into ceasing their promotion of dictatorship.

            Al-Qaeda, faced with crackdowns against their harbors in Iraq, Pakistan, Yemen, Egypt and Saudi Arabia, is making a dramatic move to Africa. Over the last seven months, the number of Al-Qaeda operatives in Somalia has risen from 40 to several hundred. The new terrorist presence is enabling the organization to create bases n Somalia, Kenya and the Sudan. [30] Forces are also linking up with radical forces in Algeria. It is highly likely that the new focus on Kenya is the result of this move, as long-distance operations are more difficult to execute. As a result, we can expect Kenya, Nigeria, and parts of North Africa (Algeria, Morocco) to remain a key focus. Al-Qaeda appears to be using regional groups to target regional targets (for example, the Middle Eastern regional groups appear now to focus on Saudi Arabia for attacks, and the African regional groups appear now to be focusing on Kenya and Nigeria). Al-Qaeda certainly wants to make Saudi Arabia a new battlefield, by causing a civil war (this is entirely within Al-Qaeda’s potential). Efforts to cause such a civil war are already underway by the increased bombing campaign in Saudi Arabia, and the preaching identifying the Saudi rulers with Bush and Ariel Sharon. Videos of training camps in Saudi Arabia [31] are also meant to show that a stable base of operations is in Saudi Arabia.

            With Libya’s admission of possessing banned weapons, the ripple effect can be felt throughout Africa. Not only will the dictators that Libya assisted begin to shake, but Egypt’s WMD programs will also be hurt. Egypt used Libya’s al-Kufra nuclear site in their nuclear program, and Libya shared nuclear and missile expertise and technology with Egypt. Over the past few years, suspicious convoys of trucks have been seen entering Egypt from Libya—trucks similar to those that are used to carry missile components. [32]

            However, the good news about Libya must be looked at fairly. It is most likely true that this is a genuine turnaround (however, years down the line, once Libya is richer due to ties with the West, it is possible a WMD program may be resurrected), but there is a good chance it is not. A column in The New York Post did a great job of explaining this. For example, in 1969, Qadhafi demanded that Egypt unify with Libya to form the core of an Arab state, but by 1972, he called Egypt an enemy of the Arabs. In 1982, Qadhafi promised to stop financing the Irish Republican Army and other terrorist groups in Europe, but by 1984, such financing had doubled. US troops died in Germany as a result. In 1986, after US airstrikes, Qadhafi promised to stop all anti-American terrorism, but two years later came the bombing of Pan-Am 103 (actually, some argue this was Iran’s doing). Up until 1993, Qadhafi also tried to unify with Algeria, Tunisia and Morocco, but ended up supporting terrorists targeting them. By 2002, Qadhafi abandoned the ideology of pan-Arabism, instead focusing on African unification. However, even the column says there are key differences this time that may signal a new era. [33] Indeed, Qadhafi’s son is even expressing hope that Libya and the US will hold joint military maneuvers in the near future, and sign security and military agreements. [34]

            Libya’s information also highlights the failures of Western intelligence. As stated on WorldThreats.com several times, we tend to underestimate the enemy, by a large degree. There is no better example of this than that of Libya. US intelligence was confident that Libya lacked the technical infrastructure to be anywhere near developing nuclear weapons in the near future. In fact, only Israeli intelligence warned that Libya could develop a nuke before or right after Iran—a claim that many thought was just a ploy to get us to attack their enemy. Israel warned Libya could become a nuclear power between 2004 and 2005 at the earliest. However, US and UK experts were shown centrifuges to enrich uranium, and that Libya had a complete nuclear fuel cycle to make such weapons, as well as a medium-range ballistic missile program and SCUD-Cs bought from North Korea. According to some officials, Libya was no more than two years away from obtaining a nuclear weapon! [35]

            The sheer length of time of which Qadhafi pursued WMDs should have signaled that some progress was made. In 1974, Qadhafi signed a nuclear cooperation treaty with Argentina, supplying his scientists with essential equipment and training.  By 1980, Libya had at least 100 tons of mustard gas and nerve agents (stored at an underground facility at Rabta [36] ), and a large number of SCUD missiles to deliver them, as well as a Russian-built 10-megawatt research reactor at Tajura (however, it is argued over whether this site was used in a nuclear program). Libya also had a French-built nuclear research plant and the assistance of German nuclear scientists. Up until now, Libya worked with North Korea to develop long-range and medium-range ballistic missiles, and worked on nuclear weapons with the help of a number of rogue states. The Kufra underground site, made to withstand heavy bombardment, housed Iranian and North Korean scientists and technicians. [37]

            Although this can not be independently confirmed, some reporting suggests that Libya may have turned over a new leaf in an attempt to avoid being attacked for an Al-Qaeda threat it helped create. Some reports indicate that Musa Kusa, the Libyan intelligence chief, provided the United Kingdom with information that Al-Qaeda may have used middle-men, including a Brazilian arms dealer named Suekdew Siew (using the alias of David Sunkar) and two others including at least one former KGB agent, to obtain chemical and biological weapons from the Libyan stockpile. According to the unconfirmed report, some weapons were flown to Afghanistan on Libyan airlines stopping at Balkans airports, while other weapons went to Yemen by boat after traveling through Sudan. There may also be weapons in extremists’ hands in the Balkans. Israeli intelligence also reports that Al-Qaeda associates had “regular visits” to Libyan WMD sites at Kufra, Rabta and Targunab. What is also interesting is that arms dealer Richard Babayan testified in court recently that Libya received the top-secret Promis intelligence-gathering software (key to CIA operations), and sold it to Iraq and North Korea. [38] This is interesting, because it appears that the former KGB of Russia is still actively sponsoring terrorism and any kind of anti-American activity. Robert Hanssen, a high-ranking FBI official that turned out to be a KGB spy, reportedly sold the Promis software to members of the Russian Mafia (which is known to be staffed by former KGB and GRU agents and to work hand-in-hand with elements of Russian intelligence) which in turn sold it to Osama Bin Laden. This software allows the terrorists to detect US efforts to catch him. [39] It is becoming clearer and clearer that in order to fight a war on terror, we must fight a war on organized crime—of which the Russian Mafia and elements of Russian intelligence is a large part of.

           

 

                                                Europe

            Heated debate continues in Europe about the power of the European Union. The Americans worry that the creation of an independent EU army will undermine NATO (quite possible), but it is true that the disarmament of Europe has made them rely almost totally on America. Russia, maintaining its Cold War-era thinking, takes pleasure in knowing that it is the dominant power in Europe, and it is optimistic that the growing power of the European Union will allow for a closer alliance with Europe, leading to integration and a possibly counter-balance to US power. Russia eagerly supplies Europe with natural resources, so that Europe is dependent on Russia, leading to acceleration in the integration process (unification with Europe has always been a major goal of Cold War-era Communist Russians). The influx of Muslims into Western Europe also serves Russia, because it allows for more Islamic influence in the region, and more pro-Arab, and thus anti-Israel (and anti-American) feeling. This pressures politicians into growing closer to the Arabs, which are Russia’s key allies. As a result of these ties, the stability of Russia’s allies in the Middle East is guaranteed, because it is unlikely the United States would move against any more Middle Eastern countries without European support.

            It is true that Western Europe needs to do more to be self-reliant. A new report by the United Kingdom’s defense department concludes that the British are no longer capable of a major military action alone without help from the United States. It mentions that the British forces sent to Iraq lack adequate amounts of weapons, ammunition, body armor, equipment and medical supplies. Further cuts in naval and air forces are planned. [40] European moves to become a major power that can balance out the US remain in motion. It is now looking possible that the European Union may not only unify mainland Europe but also North Africa (to a degree), making it a similar realm of European power. A similar example would be how during the Cold War, the United States unified to a degree with Latin America, making its realm of American power. There are talks underway in Europe for a historic agreement to build a common economic, political and cultural space across the Mediterranean. The talks are between Portugal, Spain, Italy, France and Malta on the European side, and Libya, Tunisia, Algeria, Morocco and Mauritania on the African side. [41]

            Europe is also facing increased terrorism threats. We already know from the cancellation of six Air France flights that the European airports are being targeted for hijackings. But it also became obvious that European-American cooperation in anti-terrorism efforts isn’t as great as one would think. As you may know, France declared after the flights were cancelled there was no evidence of a terror plot, and it was just “a scare”. But do you know why they said this? Because they didn’t find the Al-Qaeda operatives we said were on the flights, including one with a pilot’s license. The reason however, they weren’t found was because the French prematurely disclosed that the flights were being cancelled [42] , allowing ample time for any terrorist to escape capture. As far as we know, this operative could now be just waiting to board another flight.

            And these idiotic errors affect not only the US, but also Europe. The Italian government has confirmed that they had verified, specific intelligence that Al-Qaeda planned to hijack an airliner and crash it into the Vatican on Christmas Day. [43] Additionally, around Christmas, the Saudis foiled a suicide attack on a British Airways plane flying out of Saudi Arabia. The Saudis arrested two pilots and two light aircraft packed with explosives to ram into the plane. [44] Libya’s new cooperation has highlighted the European terrorism concerns, as Libya has reportedly informed the British that it believes there are some 500 Al-Qaeda sympathizers in the United Kingdom. [45] Europe, like America, faces a threat from nuclear proliferation. An expert for the Institute for Policy Studies recently said that Russian military documents reveal that 38 “dirty bomb warheads” are missing from a former Soviet base in Moldova. [46]

 

 

 

                                                Asia

            Troubles in Russia remain unsolved. Widely covered in the media is the crackdown on freedom and monopolies by the government, leading to widespread control of Russia by the former KGB or current FSB that dominates the government. According to the Center for the Future of Russia, Western ties with Russia have become strained by the dramatic crackdown on liberalism in the country, taking the nation back several steps in their progress to a free society. Newsweek and the Washington Post have reported extensively on the presence of former Communists in key positions of Russian government, intelligence communities, and powerful businesses. And these forces want to preserve their power, and will go to many lengths to do it. The Organization of Security and Cooperation in Europe reports that the Russian government used its control of the major media outlets and resources to dominate and control the recent elections. [47]

            Russia and China remain close allies, trying to serve as a counterbalance to American dominance. Russia is the major reason China will become a superpower in the coming decades, as China lacks the technology and knowledge Russia has, while Russia lacks the manpower that China has. Russia and China in December signed a defense treaty, where China agreed to buy $2 billion worth of arms and advanced weapons from Russia over the next year. [48] On a separate but similar note, Abu Nidal, who long had intimate ties to the former Communist intelligence services, is now believed to have played a role in 9-11. As mentioned above, he may have met with Mohammed Atta, and had a role in Ziad Jarrah’s placement in the 9-11 attacks. Additionally, Jarrah’s great uncle, who took care of him in Germany, was a Stasi (East German) agent, and an Abu Nidal agent (likely a go-between for the two). Abu Nidal was also assassinated by Saddam’s agents in August of 2002. [49] Around this time, Saddam was also meeting with senior Russian military advisors, supposedly on their own decision, and they helped him prepare for the coming war with the Coalition. These facts, along with the evidence on WorldThreats.com, begs the question if some senior former Communist (but still Marxist-Leninist ideologues) knew the basics about 9-11 before it happened. [50]

            In December, we saw tensions between China and Taiwan hit a spike. In response to a referendum on demanding independence and removal of Chinese short-range ballistic missiles opposite Taiwan, China has threatened war. Bush, eager for re-election and unwilling to confront China, bowed to Chinese pressure and demanded that Taiwan not “provoke” Red China through the referendum. However, China’s aggressive actions have not stopped. Recent war games aimed to train their forces on how to fight superior American military forces, and how to use three new striking tactics and three new defensive tactics. The exercises aimed to practice attacking radar-evading stealth aircraft, cruise missiles and armored helicopters. The other three exercises aimed to train soldiers on how to defeat American precision bombs, electronic jamming and how to detect enemy surveillance. China also practiced how to down ten types of American ballistic missiles. At the same time, two senior Chinese military officials gave details of war plans for Taiwan. They warned that separatist activists would be treated as criminals, and bragged that Taiwan couldn’t rely on the United States to have the guts to come to their aid. They also said China was prepared to suffer as a result of the invasion of Taiwan, saying that they wouldn’t be scared by boycotts of the 2008 Olympics in Beijing, cutoffs of foreign investment, threats of pour international relations, economic recession, or casualties. Additionally, China continued to support the Maoist rebels (terrorists to many) in Nepal. A report from India indicated that the Maoists were smuggling weapons in from the Chinese mainland. [51]

            The nuclear proliferation concerns emanating from Pakistan and North Korea are also making the news. Libya’s turnaround has also pressured