Monthly
Analysis: February 2005
By Ryan Mauro
tdcanalyst@optonline.net
Al-Qaeda
Threats
In general, intelligence regarding Al-Qaeda efforts to strike American
interests seems to indicate they're focusing on the Gulf region,
and laying low in North America. Since WorldThreats.com chronicles
reports of terrorist activity on this site, as well as on the Northeast
Intelligence Network's website (HomelandSecurityUS.com), there are
a few notable observations.
Interpol claims the worldwide terrorist threat has not eased since
the 2001 US invasion of Afghanistan (we'd personally debate that).
FBI Director Mueller mentioned he's "very concerned" about
the lack of data on Al-Qaeda sleeper cells inside America, and noted
that it is clear terrorists are targeting Russian nuclear weapons
sites. Additionally, Admiral James M. Coy has publicly stated that
there is intelligence "strongly suggesting" Al-Qaeda has
at least considered utilizing the Mexican border for ground access
to the USA.
We found it particularly interesting that Osama bin Laden is attempting
to urge Abu Musab al-Zarqawi to strike the United States. This very
likely means that Zarqawi is now an integral component of Al-Qaeda,
but at the same time, is an indicator that bin Laden realizes he
doesn't have the operational capabilities of Zarqawi. While bin
Laden is the ideological "backbone" of the insurgency,
Zarqawi appears to be the new operational head for the Gulf region.
However, WorldThreats.com believes that, at this moment, Zarqawi's
reach extends only into Western Europe. He has yet to solidify command
over cells that extend into North or South America, or over the
entire network in Europe, although he's working on it. However,
we must remember that the majority of the preparations for 9-11
occurred in Western Europe.
Peace
Process
WorldThreats.com is pleasantly surprised by Mahmoud Abbas' attitude
towards the United States and Israel. Abbas' past is a sketchy at
best. He has long been one of Arafat's deputies, and committed to
the corrupt Palestinian Authority for just as long. He received
his doctorate, after writing a thesis denying the scope of the Holocaust,
stating, "only a few hundred thousand Jews" were killed.
He's also made statements recently, indicating that he is of the
belief that the Palestinians own all of today's Israel. And don't
forget, Arafat once appointed him as prime minister before Abbas
resigned, out of frustration with having no input in decision-making.
However, it appears Abbas is more concerned about his legacy than
his ideology, and wants to be the man to make progress towards peace
with Israel. The problem is the terrorist groups sponsored by Syria,
Iran and Saudi Arabia, and tolerated by Egypt. These groups have
substantial power among the Palestinians. Hamas succeeded very well
in local elections because they sponsor charities and hospitals,
whereas the Palestinian Authority has failed in that arena.
Peace in the Middle East would be a deathblow to Hezbollah, Islamic
Jihad and Hamas. It is not only contrary to their destructive ideology,
indeed, they're overall financial wealth, power and prestige depends
upon creating chaos. Under no circumstances will they allow the
peace process to succeed. And their state sponsors, the Saudis,
Syrians, and Iranians, are regimes that are founded upon the concept
of state-sponsored terrorism. Without persistent conflict and violence
in the Middle East, they would all become obsolete. This is precisely
why Hezbollah has sent death threats to Abbas, and is urging Hamas
and others to continue the attacks.
Middle
East
Dramatic developments are occurring in Lebanon. A car bomb recently
killed the former prime minister of Lebanon, Rafik al-Hariri, who
resigned last fall to protest Syria's interference in Lebanese affairs.
The Lebanese opposition and, reportedly, the United States, hoped
to use Hariri to reform the Lebanese government after their spring
elections.
Since the bombing, there has been an impressive popular uprising.
The country appears on the brink of civil war, as law enforcement
appears powerless to control the people who continually defy the
ban on large gatherings during selected days. The Syrian puppet
government in Lebanon has resigned, which is a hopeful sign, but
we must remember that, given their loyalties, these recent developments
are likely a key component of Syrian strategy.
To ease the pressure some, President Assad handed over Saddam Hussein's
brother-in-law, a key player in the insurgency. At the same time,
there were attacks in Israel by Islamic Jihad and Hezbollah, and
devastating attacks in Iraq. It is likely Syria is emphasizing to
the West that they can create trouble if need be, and be relatively
cooperative if treated well. Obviously, Syria's deceptions continue.
It is unlikely Syria will relinquish control over Lebanon. The theft
of Lebanon is an extremely critical component of the Assad Regime's
stability. Instead, it is likely Syrian intelligence, embedded in
Lebanon, will attempt to control Lebanon, or at least create enough
chaos, with Hezbollah, to continue the plight of Lebanon, and maintain
it as a terrorist haven.
Perhaps the most overlooked information is the proclamation by a
leading member of Hezbollah (Hujjat al-Islam Baqer Kharrazi) that
Iran has a nuclear weapons program. He flatly stated, "We are
able to produce atomic bombs and we will do that. We shouldn't be
afraid of anyone." The situation in Iran is heating up as Israeli
intelligence has concluded that the regime will have the technical
knowledge required to produce nuclear weapons within six months.
The Iranians will complete final tests and experiments required
to enrich uranium by the end of 2005.
Due to rising tensions, Iran's government has publicly announced
preparations for an attack by the United States. The Iranians are
reportedly planning for extended guerilla warfare, and mobilizing
civilian militia-the supposedly 7-million strong "Basiji"
militia used in human-wave assaults during their war with Saddam.
Now is the time for the Americans to support the freedom fighters
in Iran. Senator Santorum has introduced the Iran Freedom and Support
Act, authorizing $10 million for such an effort, and WorldThreats.com
supports it. We should also be publicly calling for a nationwide
referendum in Iran. If a referendum was conducted fairly, the mullahs
would be removed-if unfairly, anger towards the regime would be
unbearable for the mullahs. With reforms occurring all over the
world, particularly in Lebanon, the Iranian people's popular strength
and influence is growing at a steady pace.
This summer is sure to be an interesting one in Iran, and it may
result in the removal of the regime. A secret report by the Iranian
Revolutionary Guards Corps sent to Supreme Leader Khamenei warns
that if a rebellion or demonstrations grows over a period of six
hours in Tehran, the security forces will lose all control.
WorldThreats.com believes the most significant and overlooked piece
of information this month is the fact that Iraqi television aired
a taped confession of a Syrian intelligence lieutenant revealing
his role in the Iraqi insurgency. The 30-year-old Anas Ahmed al-Essa,
from Halab, admitted he received his instructions from Syrian intelligence.
Also in the video, ten Iraqis stated that they were recruited by
the Syrians to conduct attacks.
One of al-Essa's aides, Shehab al-Shabaqwi claimed that the group
he belonged to used animals on which to practice beheadings, and
in order to be promoted to a group leader, the operative had to
conduct at least 10 beheadings. He also explained that Syria provided
weapons, explosives, equipment and $1,500 per month to each operative
in his group.
Al-Sabaqwi further detailed that the Syrians recruited him in an
Iraqi mosque, in 2001, and offered to pay for recruits, including
himself, to travel to Islamabad, Pakistan, to learn how to construct
car bombs and kidnap people. He claimed that he spent 11 months
in Islamabad and then, in fall of 2003, traveled to Syria for another
month of training, and was then sent into Iraq.
Al-Essa claimed that he infiltrated Iraq, under Syrian orders, in
2001, to begin preparing for the US-led invasion. An Iraqi officer
stated that to his knowledge, all insurgent groups are merely covers
for Syrian intelligence, and identified several well-known groups
inside Iraq as Syrian fronts, including a group that kidnapped and
beheaded foreigners. Iraqi TV later aired another series of interviews
with Sudanese and Egyptians who stated that they were trained in
Syria before going to Iraq to fight.
By now it is clear the Iraqis greatly desire freedom and democracy,
and many are willing to fight for it. Iraqi villagers killed five
insurgents who attacked them during the election at al-Mudhiyah,
south of Baghdad. They burned their cars and injured several other
insurgents as well.
The strains of freedom are sweeping the Middle East like a scorching
desert wind…
* Lebanon's government has been forced to resign.
* Syria may soon withdraw from Lebanon.
* Elections were held in the Palestinian areas.
* Mahmoud Abbas plans to reform the Palestinian government.
* Very successful elections were held in Iraq.
* Plans for local elections and reforms have begun in Saudi Arabia.
* Egyptian President Mubarak plans to amend the constitution to
allow for multi-candidate elections in September. For the first
time since 1981, Mubarak will have a challenger.
* Qatar is open about the transition to democracy.
* The Iranian people are ready to force change.
Asia
February was a miserable month for American-Russian relations. The
U.S. criticized Putin's ongoing restrictions on the free press and
overall democratic and capitalistic procedures in Russia. Putin
responded back harshly, and in doing so provided insight into his
KGB-trained mind, noting that Russia didn't respond when Bush "fired"
Dan Rather of CBS. This incident is interesting in that it amply
demonstrates that Putin clearly doesn't understand how the Western
world works.
Tensions also flared when Russia ruled out ceasing its delivery
of nuclear fuel to Iran. Senator John McCain is so incensed over
this that he stated that Russia should be barred from the next G8
meeting. Russia also moved to undermine American power and strategy
by closing important arms deals with the Syrians, including the
sale of SA-18 anti-aircraft missiles, which dramatically raises
the stakes for Israel and America. This weapon is every terrorist
and insurgent's dream. It is likely that if, back in November 2003,
Al-Qaeda had used an SA-18 rather than SA-7 to attack the Israeli
airliner flying in Kenya, the hundreds of people aboard would not
be alive today.
Substantial developments in the Russian-Chinese alliance occurred,
as well, this past month. The Russian Security Council and the Chinese
Politburo's Military Commission are developing a new joint forum,
allowing for coordination and instant communication in times of
crisis, and are also planning joint naval exercises-perhaps in preparation
for a Chinese-Taiwanese conflict? Russia and China are also moving
to include Brazil, Venezuela and South Africa in their alliances,
while assisting Iran and Syria. Analysts believe that the Russians
are hoping that the sale, by the US, of F-16s to Pakistan, will
drive India into their camp.
North
Korea
Over to North Korea, the regime has admitted possessing nuclear
weapons. While it is definitely true they have all the materials
necessary, we are still unsure if weapons have actually been assembled.
Ultimately, that is of little consequence. DIA analysts claim that
North Korea has between 12 and 15 nuclear weapons, the CIA notes
2 or 3, and the Department of Energy believes the number is somewhere
between 3 and 12.
WorldThreats.com has long maintained that North Korea will probably
not sell nuclear weapons to Al-Qaeda, and that a lot of the recent
nuclear chatter is merely desperate grasping, on the part of North
Korea, for prestige, attention, and money. We have also long contended,
as does Dr. Scott Wheeler of ToThePointNews.com, that the longer
North Korea is ignored, the deeper the hole into which they will
dig themselves. As Dr. Wheeler so eloquently states, we should force
the North Koreans to "prove it", by ignoring them until
they test a nuclear weapon, which would also serve to further isolate
them.
Should the North Korean nuclear threat grow intolerable, such as
intelligence indicating the North Koreans are working with terrorists,
or they begin conducting tests, proving they have assembled weapons,
the US does have many options. Diplomacy, of course, is the first
line of action, but interception of illegal shipments would put
effective pressure on the regime. If worse comes to worse, a blockade
would be very successful, although this isn't an option the US should
be quick to employ. At any point, during the process of considering
these measures, the US could compensate the North Koreans financially
for verifiable disarmament of their WMD programs.
We at WorldThreats.com maintain that the best way to reduce or eliminate
North Korea's WMD programs is by taking significant measures against
Syria and Iran. A large portion of the income that the North Koreans
use for their weapons programs is derived from weapons sales to
Iran and Syria. With Libya out of the weapons business, the removal
of these two customers will bring great progress on the Korean Peninsula.
Europe
The Ukrainian situation remains remarkably calm. It is quite surprising
that the new Ukrainian government has already launching a general
inquiry into the previous government's illegal weapons sales to
rogue states. The former administration is suspected of having sold
up to 20 KL-55 missiles to countries, including China and Iran.
Iran received six such missiles in 2000. The missiles have a range
of 1,800 miles, and are capable of carrying 200-kiloton nuclear
warheads, at altitudes too low for radar to detect. The former Ukrainian
government reportedly used a Bosnian arms dealer as an intermediary.
If true, this marks a significant increase in the threat posed by
Iran and arms dealers in the former USSR.