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Monthly
Analysis: January 2005 Compiled
By: Ryan Mauro
I’ve
long maintained that 2005-2006 is one of the most critical
time periods in the foreseeable future. This is the time period
when Iraqi democracy will be shaped, Iran will likely posses
a nuclear weapon, and the trends of radical Islamism will
be decided. It is also the time frame when an effective US
foreign policy toward China must begin to be wisely formulated,
and firmly implemented. How anyone could want to be president
during this time perplexes me. President Bush’s State of the Union
address and Condoleezza Rice’s recent
statements have made it clear where the USA will push for
reforms and changes. In Saudi Arabia and Jordan, as Bush stated,
the US hopes democratic reforms will begin. Bush singled out
Iran and Syria as the main threats to freedom, and he will
likely focus on regime change there, as well. Rice, while being castigated by Congress,
named the “outposts of tyranny” she would focus on. She named
Cuba, Myanmar, Iran, Belarus, North Korea and Zimbabwe. She
left out Syria, but was very vocal in her criticism of their
regime. That may indicate that the US will push for internal
reform or policy changes there, but not regime change—yet.
[1]
Middle East The Iraqi elections, despite all the
concerns and extreme security measures, were a tremendous
success. The Kurds voted in massive numbers and will likely
be over-represented in the 275-member National Assembly. The
Shiites voted in great numbers as well and it is likely the
United Iraqi Alliance, endorsed by Grand Ayatollah Al-Sistani,
will control the assembly. This greatly limits the ambitions
of extremists like Moqtada al-Sadr,
who seek an Islamic state, and is a significant setback for
the Iranians, who will see their influence over the Shia
movement evaporate. The Sunnis initially held back from voting
but made a last-minute surge when terrorist attacks did not
occur. My greatest concern wasn’t that the
Sunnis would feel powerless, because that is naturally what
happens to every losing party or group in a democracy. This
is a win-win situation for the Iraqis. If the Sunnis participate,
they will see that they can gain more through participation
than with boycotts. When they realize they’re underrepresented,
or if they don’t participate, the Sunnis will lose power,
and come the next election, they won’t make such a mistake
twice. And, in either scenario, support for the insurgency’s
violent ways will decline. Syria and Iran have the most to lose
from this election, which is why I’m not surprised at their
efforts to torpedo the elections. One key US ally, Jordan’s
King Abdullah II, said the elections would be a disaster—and
few, if any analysts have offered explanations for his comments.
Jordan is Sunni, so naturally Jordan is wary of the growth
of Shiite power on its border. Jordan is also not a democracy,
so that monarchy is definitely concerned about this fine young
addiction known as democracy and liberty. Already, freedom
is making inroads into Jordan, with King Abdullah’s announcement
that there will soon be elected councils for local administration.
[2]
In the two weeks before the election,
an agent of Iran’s Al-Quds Force
of the Revolutionary Guard was captured in Iraq. He had $150,000
on hand, and was meeting with Iraqi insurgents in the eastern
Diyala province in central Iraq.
He is believed to not only have funded, but also planned attacks
on Coalition troops.
[3]
Iran attempted to manipulate the democratic
process by inserting “fake families” (Iranian operatives posing
as families going to vote)
[4]
into Iraq but there is no evidence that
this had any significant effect. The leader of the Jaish Muhammed group, who was captured
in Fallujah in November, admitted on videotape that his terrorists,
who conducted several beheadings, relied upon Syrian and Iranian
support. The Iraqi Defense Ministry released the videotape,
as Prime Minister Allawi simultaneously campaigned on an anti-Iranian platform.
According to the terrorist, two former Iraqi military-intelligence
officers went to Iran, in April and May, to meet with Iranian
intelligence officials, along with Ayatollah Khameini.
He also revealed that Iran supplied his group with money,
weapons and even car bombs, and that, just before the war
began, Saddam Hussein sent him to Syria to discuss supplying
the insurgency with a Syrian intelligence officer.
[5]
According to Iranian sources, in December,
Jordan’s King Abdullah II was shown a photo of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi meeting with senior commanders of the Iranian
Revolutionary Guard Corps.
[6]
WorldThreats.com has no corroboration or
confirmation available. The Iranian opposition obtained a document written by Iraqi insurgents reporting back to the Revolutionary Guards Brigadier-General Obeydavi, a senior leader of the elite Al-Quds Force. The note read as follows: “We have presently reduced the number of attacks in southern
Iraq, but operations still continue in Baghdad and in Ramadi,
Falluja, Salahoddin,
and Diyala. Consequent to the objectives defined, there is stability
in southern Iraq, but there are relentless operations in the
other provinces mentioned. The number of personnel involved
in each operation differs according to the requirements and
the importance of the target. We will inform you of any operation
if more than 50 people are required to take part. Attacks
are being conducted on the occupation forces, forces of the
former regime and on any other force which is deemed necessary.”
[7]
Iran continues to move full-speed ahead
in its nuclear weapons program, and Russia is playing a key
role. Russia has begun the first phase of training the final
100 engineers to operate Iran’s Bushehr
nuclear reactor (also Russian-manufactured). So far, 600 such
engineers have been trained by Russia. The final step, seen
by Israel as the “critical point” Iran must not reach, is
the delivery of nuclear fuel for the reactor. This is expected
to happen in the third quarter of 2005.
[8]
Iran now has the ability to produce
zirconium, which is used in the cladding of uranium rods to
prevent evaporation of fissionable products.
[9]
Iran, according to the National Council
of Resistance, has recently conducted successful experiments
on a crucial triggering tool required for the implementation
of viable nuclear weapons. The Iranians now possess enough
beryllium to produce nuclear weapons, and they’re close to
producing their own neutron initiators.
[10]
Confrontation with Iran looms ever
nearer. Seymour Hersh, a very liberal
reporter, reported in mid-January, that US Special Forces
had been conducting secret reconnaissance missions on Iranian
nuclear sites since last summer, and have identified at least
three-dozen sites. Special Forces are reportedly working with Pakistani scientists,
who assisted the Iranian nuclear program.
[11]
WorldThreats.com’s sources cast doubt on Hersh’s accounts of meetings inside the Pentagon—as reported
in the original article—but would not comment on the purported
Special Forces operations. Fortunately, the liberal movement in
Iran is growing stronger by the day. The Student Movement
Coordination Committee for Democracy, in Iran, reacted to
President Bush’s speech, on January 27, by stating that Bush’s
encouragement alone increases the level of civil disobedience,
strikes and demonstrations in Iran.
[12]
If a speech with such average coverage
produces that level of reaction in Iran, it will be interesting
to observe the effect of the State of the Union address, wherein
Bush spoke directly to the Iranian people. Syria is preparing for a joint Iraqi-American attack, of a limited nature, in the late spring of this year, according to some reporting. Syria’s recent courting of Russia for advanced arms purchases can be viewed in this context. Among the weapons being discussed are S-400 anti-aircraft missiles, strikingly capable of downing US cruise missiles and aircraft, anti-tank weapons, T-90 tanks, artillery upgrades and ballistic missiles. The fact that Russia is even discussing an advanced weapons
transaction with Syria, which already owes Russia an $11 billion
debt, clearly demonstrates that Russia maintains a virulent
anti-American agenda. In fact, Russia has even agreed to write
off 73% of Syria’s debt!
[13]
Some of the weapons also may allow Syria
to decipher Israeli technological secrets passed to the Russians.
[14]
Iran and the Saudis have reportedly
given the Syrians $2 billion to secure the purchase of the
Russian weapons, including SA-18 anti-aircraft missiles. While
such weaponry won’t be able to turn the tide of a potential
military conflict, it may be serious enough to capitalize
on American hypersensitivity to casualties and cost. Syria is becoming a major front in
the War on Terror, especially with its nuclear program and
technologies—despite being many years removed from any credible
ability to create an actual weapon. The Reform Party of Syria
claims that Syria is relying on the assistance of Iran, China,
Russia, the nuclear black market, including Abdul Qadeer Khan’s network, and the help of at least a dozen mid-level
Iraqi nuclear scientists, to further its nuclear program.
According to the dissident group, Syria is close to creating
a full-fledged nuclear fuel cycle, due to the arrival of enriched
uranium and nuclear components from the Iraqi program. WorldThreats.com
doubts this claim. The centerpiece of the program is a so-called
“agricultural research” site at Div Al-Hajar. To supplement the program, Syria is also buying rocket
engines, Scud ballistic missiles and other missile components
from North Korea.
[15]
Europe In January, investigative reports were
published regarding the poisoning of Ukranian
President Viktor Yushchenko. The
reports reveal that several attempts to poison Yushchenko
were accomplished over a four-week period. Two poisons (dioxin
and an endo-toxin) have been found in his body, and there is evidence
that one of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s
closest staff members was involved. Yushchenko
attended a party, on September 5, hosted by the SBU leader,
and his deputy, who were said to be unaware of the plot, but
the cook and the waiter attending the party are known to have
signed documents given to Yushchenko,
wherein they admitted being part of the poisoning plot. Recently, Channel 5 TV was given intercepted phone calls between
a man in Kiev, and an FSB officer in Moscow, discussing the
plot. The name Gleb Pavlovsky,
a close advisor to President Putin,
was mentioned.
[16]
Marat Gelman was working with Pavlovsky, and the two enlisted the assistance of Viktor Medvedchuk, the head of the Social Democratic United Party,
as an intermediary to the Russians, who specifically discussed
assassination attempts, and poisoning Yushchenko. We also know that there was a bomb
plot aimed at assassinating President Yushchenko.
The plot failed, but did kill one person. Other bombs were
found and defused at centers that were a part of Yuschenko’s
youth-oriented effort. A car bomb was found near Yuschenko’s
office as well, and the car had Russian license plates. The
two operatives were arrested with false Russian and Ukranian
passports, and the investigation revealed that their Russian
contact was to pay them $50,000 for the assassination. They
are believed to be FSB operatives.
[17]
Latin America The only development here is the usual
rhetoric from Fidel Castro, and Rice mentioning Cuba as an
“outpost of tyranny.” In a minor development, Iran gave Cuba
$20 million in Euro credits.
[18]
Asia The South Korean paper Seoul Shinmon
reported that the US is reviewing recently received intelligence
that North Korea has purchased a complete nuclear weapon from
either Pakistan, or a former Soviet state, to avoid critical
testing that would allow detection by the West.
[19]
WorldThreats.com’s sources cast doubt on the report. Finally, information, of at least some
minimal level of North Korean support for terrorists, has
been released. It has been proven that the largest Islamist
group in the Philippines, the Moro Islamic Liberation Front,
purchased weapons from the Koreans in 1999 and 2000. The MLF
is an Al-Qaeda associate, and it is known that, despite the
fact that North Korea is a communist state, Al-Qaeda urged
the MLF to use its contacts in another associate, Jemmah
Islamiya, to acquire the weapons.
Among the weapons are 10,000 M16 rifles, grenades, light machine
guns and RPGs. According to documents
captured in November 2005, the MLF even began discussing the
potential purchase of a Korean mini-submarine, in June 1999.
[20]
Earlier in this report, we discussed
Russia’s anti-American agenda. In a report not extensively
covered by the mainstream media, Russia’s intelligence services
are alleged to be operating against the US, and its interests,
just as though the Cold War had never ended. Russia is known
to have at least one hundred clandestine agents in the US,
under “official cover,” typically attached to embassies, masquerading
as diplomats.
[21]
This does not even include covert operatives
that may number in the thousands. It is quite evident now, that Russia
had a role in undermining democracy in the Ukraine. And now
it’s being rumored that Russia may also have had a hand in
the death of Georgian Prime Minister Zurab Zhuania, who led the revolution
that ousted Eduard Shevardnadze,
a former communist. The prime minister was found dead in his
friend’s apartment, purportedly from a heater’s accidental
gas leak.
[22]
China continues to be a major proliferation
concern. The United States placed financial penalties on eight
powerful Chinese companies that are closely tied to the government,
for aiding Iran’s ballistic missile program.
[23]
China continues to press its objectives
toward becoming an international superpower, fully able to
counter US influence. Of special concern to the Pentagon,
is the fact that China is building military bases along sea-lanes
to and from the Middle East; new naval bases, at the Gwadar
port, in southwest Pakistan, for example. China is also improving
its ties with Myanmar and Bangladesh, building a railway through
Cambodia, and a canal in Thailand, to bypass the strategic
Strait of Malacca.
[24]
[1] Associated Press, January 19, 2005. [2] Associated Press, January 27, 2005. [3] WorldNetDaily.com, January 22, 2005. [4] WorldNetDaily.com, January 26, 2005. [5] Associated Press, January 7, 2005. [6] IranFocus.com, January 15, 2005. [7] IranFocus.com, January 16, 2005. [8] Geostrategy-Direct.com, week of January 25, 2005. [9] Middle East Newsline, January 20, 2005. [10] Reuters, February 3, 2005. [11] Reuters, January 16, 2005. [12] WorldNetDaily.com, January 27, 2005. [13] Interfax, January 26, 2005. [14] WorldNetDaily.com, January 2, 2005. [15] Geostrategy-Direct.com, week of January 25, 2005. [16] The Age, January 23, 2005. [17] Eurasia Daily Monitor, January 5, 2005. [18] WND.com, January 18, 2005. [19] Reuters, January 27, 2005. [20] East-Asia-Intel.com, January 5, 2005. [21] Time, January 30, 2005. [22] Associated Press, February 3, 2005. [23] New York Times, January 17, 2005. [24] Washington Times, January 17, 2005. |