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Monthly
Analysis: By:
Ryan Mauro War on Terror Expect many more hijackings in the
future. The Filipino decision to withdraw troops from Iraq in
order to save a hostage will set off an extreme domino effect.
Much of the progress in Iraq has been put in jeopardy, boosting
the morale, and thus recruitment efforts, of the terrorists. There is much talk of a plan to strike
before the US elections. WorldThreats.com can confirm there is
an abundance of intelligence and “chatter” by terrorists indicating
a plan to strike before elections but to our knowledge, no specific
plans have been revealed. This chatter has forced the acting CIA
chief to state that the threat level from the terrorists was the
highest since 9/11.
[1]
The Abu Hafs Martyrs Brigades has stated
that the offer of a truce for Europe is expired and that Berlusconi
of Italy is their first target. A few days later, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi
threatened Moslem nations that may send troops to Iraq and specifically
pointed the finger at Egypt, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia. He also
condemned Libya for bowing to American demands to disarm. However,
there is no confirmation that this message was genuinely from
Zarqawi.
[2]
Al-Qaeda took the hostage victory and made an even more successful, and brilliant plan. If it could not force countries to withdraw troops, they’d force individual companies. And so far, this has been very successful. Employees are held hostage, and naturally co-workers will press for measures to accommodate their release. While a government can handle this pressure, a company cannot. Middle East New evidence of Iran’s pursuit of nuclear
weapons was revealed this month as well. Press reports indicate
that the Revolutionary Guard closed Tehran’s new international
airport within hours of its May 9th opening, and it
is still closed as of this writing. The reports indicated that
in December 2002, a container, probably from North Korea, spilled
there, and Russian nuclear experts subsequently arrived to clean
the area. Ever since, the airport has been off-limits to IAEA
inspectors. The reports indicated intense speculation that the
container had weapons-grade uranium inside.
[3]
Intelligence reports confirm that Iran is now
negotiating with Russia for the purchase of deuterium gas, which
is used to enhance nuclear explosions.
[4]
Iran has violated an agreement with Europe,
has broken the seals of nuclear equipment monitored by the UN,
and is again building and testing machines for uranium enrichment.
[5]
On a similar note, Israeli intelligence has
pushed back their projection for when Iran will be able to produce
its own nuclear weapons to 2007.
[6]
The press is full of leaked reports
that Israel is planning to strike at Iranian nuclear facilities.
WorldThreats.com does not see such an attack occurring before
the end of the year. Reports indicate that Iran agrees with this
prediction, but is still preparing for a potential attack, which
would still come within 2 years. Among these preparations is the
construction of a satellite warning system to help prepare for,
and possibly foil, an Israeli missile attack. The system is slated
to become active by late 2005.
[7]
Iran may be preparing itself for a war with
the help of Pakistan, as the two have agreed to a joint commission
on defense and military cooperation.
[8]
Previously, it is suspected the two have helped
each other with their WMD programs and various conventional weapons
programs. Negotiations continued with Iran in
order to obtain Al-Qaeda operatives “detained” by government authorities.
The Egyptians took the lead in the negotiations, and an Egyptian
plane arrived in Tehran to bring back some operatives. The plane
arrived back in Cairo empty.
[9]
Hundreds of Al-Qaeda members remain in Iran,
including 18 top leaders. It is believed over 380 Al-Qaeda members
and affiliates are in Iran. One group is located at the Namak
Abroud region, which is 60 miles north of Tehran and another group
is located at Lavizan in northwest Tehran.
[10]
A senior CIA official has said that the Al-Qaeda
figures hiding in Iran “probably” had pre-knowledge of 9/11.
[11]
The 9/11 Commission Report revealed
that Iran was in bed with Al-Qaeda. It noted that between eight
and ten of the 9/11 hijackers passed through Iran between October
2000 and February 2001, that the Iranians did not stamp Saudi
passports, and may have directly assisted their transportation.
Iran reportedly approached Al-Qaeda, after the USS Cole bombing,
to propose a collaborative relationship with Usama bin Laden,
for joint attacks on America. Bin Laden reportedly (although WorldThreats.com
would contest this) rejected the offer out of fear of alienating
his Saudi supporters. The Commission also reported that Al-Qaeda
may have cooperated with Hezbollah, and thus Iran, in the 1996
Khobar Towers bombing.
[12]
The Arab press has identified an Iranian
Revolutionary Guards general as directing the safe passage of
the hijackers, according to a former Revolutionary Guard official.
The report said the general did the action after Ayman al-Zawahiri
requested the favor, and also mentioned that other military officials
confirmed that the general had links to Al-Qaeda from the 1990s.
[13]
In response to this pressure, the director
of Iran’s armed services’ public relations, General Jazayeri said
any attack on Iran’s nuclear program would force Iran to “go so
far as overthrowing the entire Zionist entity”, and warned Iran
could easily strike US interests.
[14]
More weapons of mass destruction were
found recently in Iraq. Polish forces in south-central Iraq found
17 rockets, to be fitted on Soviet launchers, and two mortar rounds
with chemical weapons, specifically cyclosarin. The weapons were
discovered after an informant told Coalition forces that terrorists
were plotting to buy the weapons for $5,000 per warhead. The information
from the informant led to the discovery of the weapons.
[15]
British forces also found 14 surface-to-surface
missiles buried in a deep crater on the Saudi border, with a layer
of salt above them, to obscure them from satellite surveillance.
[16]
Likely as a result of these findings, the Senate
Armed Services Committee Chairman Warner has said the upcoming
report on Iraqi WMD, slated for release in September 2004, will
have a “good deal of new information” supporting pre-war claims
that Iraq sought weapons of mass destruction.
[17]
The Iraqi interior minister confirmed
finding corroboration of an Iraqi-Bin Laden link as well. He confirmed
the discovery of evidence that contact between the two was arranged
via Farouq Hijazi. He stated that Abu Musab al-Zarqawi had been
harbored in Iraq since 2000, and cooperation was maintained even
though Saddam later killed some of Zarqawi’s supporters.
[18]
Perhaps one of the biggest benefits
of the successful handover of sovereignty to the Iraqis is that
now the interim government can take mediocre action against Iran,
Syria and others without it appearing like pro-American imperialism.
The Iraqi leaders’ statements have rallied the Iraqis into nationalism
and pro-activity in combating the agenda of these state sponsors
of terrorism. Reports from Iraq indicate the interim government
is planning to eventually publish parts of its findings that reveal
that neighboring countries are helping the insurgents logistically,
and with money and training. Around the same time as this information
was leaked, the Iraqi foreign minister warned that Iraq may not
oppose US attacks on these offending neighbors.
[19]
The Iraqi defense minister also called Iran
the #1 threat to Iraq, and condemned Iran for establishing intelligence
posts on Iraqi soil and causing political and social problems.
The minister warned that Iraq would retaliate on the countries
that aided and abetted terrorism within its borders.
[20]
Later, the interior minister warned Iran that,
in retaliation, Iraq could “complicate matters” in Iran.
[21]
Apparently, the Iraqis are hinting at using
the Mujahideen-e-Khalq group, and other Iranian dissident groups,
to foment internal strife. And finally, during his visit to Damascus,
Allawi presented Syria with documented proof that Syria was holding
approximately $800 million of Saddam’s (i.e., Iraq’s) money.
[22]
Despite the new rounds of pressure,
Syria and Iran have continued to see the US as a “paper tiger”,
and have not even attempted to disguise their actions. Without
a doubt, the mainstream media’s comparisons of the situation in
Iraq to Vietnam, and the hysterical politics of the US election
cycle, play into this belief. On July 6, two Iranians were arrested
attempting to detonate a truck bomb in Iraq.
[23]
Jordan intercepted a shipment of heavy weapons,
including anti-tank missiles and heavy artillery enroute from
Syria to Iraq.
[24]
An assistant to Moqtada al-Sadr has claimed
that Iranians are smuggling drugs, including hashish, into Najaf
and Karbala.
[25]
Coalition and Iraqi intelligence identified
a network of Saddam Hussein’s cousins, operating in part from
Syria and Jordan that was smuggling weapons, fighters and men
into Iraq. At least three of Saddam’s cousins were identified
to be in Europe. A key figure in the network is believed to be
Fatiq Suleiman al-Majid, a former Special Security Organization
officer who has been in Syria since spring 2003.
[26]
The Saudi press claims that Kuwaiti security
has informed Syria that a number of Syrians are recruiting and
transporting Kuwaiti jihadists via Syria.
[27]
Positive news from Iraq continues.
The Iraqis are becoming visibly anti-terrorist. A new Iraqi group
called “The Salvation Movement”, threatened to kill Abu Musab
al-Zarqawi if he didn’t leave Iraq, and condemned him for defiling
Islam.
[28]
Citizens in Fallujah forced 25 Syrian, Jordanian
and Saudi fighters to leave. Reports also indicate that posters
calling for the beheading of al-Zarqawi are becoming popular in
mosques and public places there.
[29]
A BBC/Oxford poll indicated that 55%
of the Iraqis believe life today is “quite good” or “very good”.
56% believe life will get better in the next year, and 70% believe
Iraq needs democracy.
[30]
As some of you may know, there is reportedly
a secret treaty between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, whereby the
Saudis provide funding for the Pakistani nuclear program, in exchange
for being covered by the Pakistani umbrella. It has been reported
that the Saudis could have nukes “overnight” if they purchased
the warheads abroad, but a new report by the Tel Aviv University’s
Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies has concluded that the Saudis
lack an adequate technical infrastructure for a robust nuclear
program.
[31]
The inability to produce nukes “on-demand”
does not mean we should ignore the Saudi problem. Saudi intelligence,
as previously proven, is riddled with Al-Qaeda members and sympathizers,
and is directly responsible for the spread of the network in the
Gulf. One “senior Arab source” even estimated that 80% of the
Saudi Interior Ministry is sympathetic to Al-Qaeda.
[32]
Geostrategy-Direct.com supplemented these specifics
by reporting that up to ten of the 9/11 hijackers served in, or
received support from, the Saudi security forces. Many came from
families with histories in the National Guard.
[33]
American politicians are finally fed
up with Saudi reluctance to fight terrorism. The House recently
approved a $19.5 billion foreign aid bill that cut monetary aid
and millions of dollars worth of discounts on weapons and training
for the Saudis. Although the amount immediately lost was only
$25,000, it should send a subtle signal to the Saudis without
causing a breakdown in relations. Some politicians also wanted
to cut aid to Egypt in half, but that plan failed.
[34]
The investigation into the nuclear
black market, as a result of Libya’s recent about-face, and the
unraveling of Abdul Qadeer Khan’s network, has resulted in new
evidence that Syria may be setting the stage for a small nuclear
program. The Syrians may have acquired centrifuges used to enrich
uranium from Khan, as Khan visited Syria in the late 1990s. Later,
Khan met clandestinely, with Syrian officials, in Iran. Danielle
Pletka, an expert on nuclear proliferation, claims that Khan also
cut a deal with Pakistani president Musharraf. Khan agreed only
to admit his role in the nuclear market with Libya, Iran and North
Korea since they had already been proven to be involved. Khan
omitted his information regarding the roles of Egypt, Syria and
Saudi Arabia.
[35]
In the realm of chemical and biological weapons,
Syria has been testing chemical warheads to be fitted onto dozens
of ballistic missiles that are in Hezbollah’s possession.
[36]
Reforms in the Arab world are continuing
as well. Although they may not be built with this intention, most
religious schools in that part of the world are subject to the
influence or control of radical Muslims. As a result, these schools
manufacture hundreds of indoctrinated youngsters. So far, Pakistan
and Yemen have shut down many such schools and have begun reforming
them. Bahrain, Qatar, and the UAE are taking similar steps. On
June 30, Egypt went so far as to stop building any new religious
schools.
[37]
Africa New information came out this month
confirming that Niger was active in the nuclear black market,
and even that pre-war intelligence on Iraq’s relations with Niger
was accurate. Ever since 1999, many countries’ electronic intelligence
has intercepted Nigerian officials speaking of selling uranium
to at least five countries, including Iraq, China, North Korea,
Libya and Iran.
[38]
A new UN resolution threatens sanctions
on Sudan (also a state-sponsor of terrorism) for failing to restrain
a government-backed militia that is responsible for mass atrocities
against rebel forces and civilians. Despite US criticism, Russia
still sold Sudan some Mig-29s, and continues to be semi-hostile
to US policy towards Sudan by leading a pro-Sudan coalition, including
China, Pakistan and Algeria.
[39]
Europe, led by Spain, has focused the
spotlight on Africa, and particularly Morocco, as a source of
terrorists. A Spanish judge has stated that Moroccan authorities
confirmed losing track of 400 Moroccans who had trained in Bosnia,
Chechnya or Afghanistan.
[40]
Asia A new book by Joseph Douglass, entitled
“Betrayal,” reveals evidence that American POWs from the Korean
and Vietnam Wars are still in various ex-East Bloc countries.
Ryan Mauro of WorldThreats.com recently conducted an interview
with Dr. Douglass, which can be viewed at: http://www.worldthreats.com/general_information/Interview%20with%20Joseph%20Douglass.htm.
The top missile defense
official in the Pentagon, meanwhile, has reported that North Korea
has recently upgraded its missile forces.
[41]
North Korea has declared the year of 2004 as
the “year of camouflage”. South Korean intelligence has indicated
that North Korea is building a large number of bogus air, navy
and army bases, while strengthening the concealment of genuine
bases. Up to 80 mock underground bases have been constructed,
and the military is now communicating with encrypted channels.
[42]
Recently, the US was criticized internationally
for withholding $34 million that would otherwise have been dispersed
to organizations that would have used the monies to fund Chinese
“family planning”, or, forced abortions.
[43]
WorldThreats.com thanks US officials for taking
this small but bold move to show China we do not approve of their
human rights practices. The former Soviet Muslim countries
and the Middle East continue to grow closer. In a development
that could significantly effect the US, the Bahrain Center for
Studies and Research, which is very influential, recommended that
the GCC ally with Afghanistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan,
Tajikistan and Turkmenistan.
[44]
Central Asia continues to be a terrorist
haven. Uzbekistan has revealed that terrorists, responsible for
five days of attacks, were trained in southern Kazakhstan.
[45]
Misc. The biased press in Canada has finally
achieved its goals of turning a significant number of its impressionable
youth against the US. A credible poll of 14 to 18 year olds in
Canada revealed that 40% view the US as “evil”. 64% of the French
Canadian youth feel that way as well, on a much higher level.
[46]
In another example of incompetence
in parts of the US State Department, it was leaked to The Washington Times that the State Department was restricting special
forces operatives from spying on terrorists while assigned to
US embassies. In one chilling example, a Green Beret was not allowed
to work outside his embassy, despite his promising attempts to
infiltrate the terrorist network.
[47]
In another example of the poor capabilities
to secure sensitive sites and information (and poor counter-intelligence
efforts) it was revealed that two data storage devices containing
classified information went missing from the Los Alamos National
Lab.
[48]
[1] Reuters, July 13, 2004. [2] Associated Press, July 29, 2004. [3] The Age, June 28, 2004. [4] Washington Times, July 29, 2004. [5] Telegraph, July 27, 2004. [6] Reuters, July 21, 2004. [7] Geostrategy-Direct.com, week of July 6, 2004. [8] IRNA, July 20, 2004. [9] Al-Watan, July 11, 2004. [10] Al-Sharq Al-Awsat, July 15, 2004. [11] Washington Times, July 23, 2004. [12] Time, July 16, 2004. [13] Al-Sharq Al-Awsat, July 19, 2004. [14] Mehr News, Iran, July 26, 2004. [15] Associated Press, July 2, 2004. [16] Kuna.net, (Kuwait), July 17, 2004. [17] Associated Press, July 21, 2004. [18] Al-Sharq Al-Awsat, July 29, 2004. [19] Associated Press, July 4, 2004. [20] Al-Sharq Al-Awsat, July 20, 2004. [21] Al-Hayat, July 25, 2004. [22] Al-Hayat, July 26, 2004. [23] Associated Press, July 5, 2004. [24] Al-Sharq Al-Awsat, July 7, 2004. [25] Al-Wifaq al-Demoqrati Weekly, Baghdad, July 18, 2004. [26] New York Times, July 5, 2004. [27] Champress, Syria, July 29, 2004. [28] Associated Press, July 6, 2004. [29] Al-Quds al-Arabi, July 21, 2004. [30] Washington Post, July 20, 2004. [31] Middle East Newsline, July 5, 2004. [32] The Australian, July 6, 2004. [33] WorldNetDaily.com, July 17, 2004. [34] Newsmax.com, July 16, 2004. [35] Times Online, July 4, 2004. [36] UPI, July 25, 2004. [37] Al-Hayat, July 5, 2004. [38] Financial Times, June 27, 2004. [39] Moscow Times, July 26, 2004. [40] BBC, July 25, 2004. [41] Bloomberg.com, July 1, 2004. [42] Geostrategy-Direct.com, week of August 3, 2004. [43] WorldNetDaily.com, July 17, 2004. [44] Middle East Newsline, July 21, 2004. [45] Washington Times, July 29, 2004. [46] Toronto Free Press, June 30, 2004. [47] Washington Times, July 9, 2004. [48] Las Vegas Sun, July 10, 2004.
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