Monthly Analysis: July 2005

By: Ryan Mauro

tdcanalyst@aol.com

Middle East

“ I can control the Americans—I have experience in doing it…[I'll] bring the death that the Shiite are experiencing in Iraq to the streets of America with the volunteer martyr brigades ready to act. ” -- New Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad, on his own web site.

The beginning of July buzzed with news about the election of Mahmoud Ahmedinejad as Iran 's new president. Ahmedinejad, the former ultra-conservative mayor of Tehran , has promised to spread the Islamic Revolution, even into America , and is suspected of being a key player in the hostage taking at the American embassy, as was confirmed by Bani Sadr, the former Iranian president. Classified Austrian documents reveal that Ahmedinejad also had a key role in the 1989 execution-style killing of an Iranian Kurdish leader.

Ahmedinejad has been threatening America in a way that rivals only those of Osama bin Laden, and has stated that Iran will move full speed ahead on its nuclear program. This may signal that Iranian regime is ready for a more aggressive stance, confident that Iran is close to, or already has, nuclear capability.

Jamal Muhammedi, an advisor to Ahmedinejad, used his first days in power to threaten Azerbaijan in the Azeri paper Mirror . Muhammedi warned that Iran would retaliate for Azerbaijan 's accommodation of US bases, and Baku 's “support” of Azeri “separatists” inside Iran . He also warned Iran could launch a pre-emptive missile strike, exhorting the reader to “[imagine] how Baku will look after two missiles strike the area.” Experts caution that Iran is significantly more technologically advanced, and militarily powerful, than Azerbaijan .

Of course, as we former always maintained that the US needs to back the Iranian movement for an international referendum on the government. The Iranian people can take care of this problem, with US assistance. In our opinion, Ronald Reagan would be greatly disappointed that the US now seems to be unwilling to assist the Iranian people as it readily did for Solidarity in Poland .

What little assistance the US is willing to give is, unfortunately, being stymied by the US State Department. Suzanne Maloney, a liberal in the Policy Planning Staff, is blocking the $3 million in funding that was allocated for this cause. The State Department apparently requires a “positive consensus” before any such funding can be distributed. In our opinion, t his is patently ridiculous. Assisting the Iranians in fighting for their own freedom, at a minimal cost to the US , should never become a partisan issue.

July was a successful month in Iraq —and hopeful. According to the top US commander in the city, US and Iraqi forces “mostly eliminated” the ability of insurgents in Baghdad to launch attacks. Before Operation Lightning began, 14-21 car bombs occurred per week in Baghdad , and that number has been reduced to 7-8.

Over 1,700 insurgents were captured, including 51 foreigners. Interestingly, according to Geostrategy-Direct.com, two Syrian intelligence agents were captured, preparing attacks. They confirmed that Syria had assisted around 1,000 insurgents cross the border into Iraq in order to counter the success of Operation Lightning.

Dick Sartain sent us an email this month that contained a significant piece of information, regarding the post-Saddam situation in Iraq . As a result of Operation Iraqi Freedom, an estimated 25,000 civilians have been killed in Iraq , over the past two years. However, Saddam killed at least 1.3 million Iraqis, over 30 years. That means Saddam killed an average of 43,333 per year, or 118 per day. Today, the death toll is 10,870 per year, or 30 per day. That's still far too many, but it is clear that progress has been made.

Asia

Russian FSB defector Alexander Litvinenko, who defected in the 1990s, is reporting that, in 1998, the FSB trained Ayman al-Zawahiri, Bin Laden's right-hand man, at an FSB camp in Dagestan . This was just before Zawahiri decided to merge Egyptian Islamic Jihad, which was, according to some, founded with assistance from Soviet intelligence.

There has been a lot of attention devoted, over the years, to Zawahiri's apparent links to Marxism and the former East Bloc intelligence services. However, the details of the relationship remain murky, and beg further investigation.

Regarding China , we were disappointed when US observers, and even the US government, barely reacted to General Zhenghu's comments, stating that China would use nuclear weapons if the US intervened in a war with Taiwan . Apparently, the US prefers to naively maintain that this statement is just one man's position, as opposed to it representing a larger, calculated strategy on the part of the Chinese government, as a whole.

The general claimed that China was prepared to suffer the destruction of all its cities east of Xian, but the US must likewise prepare to lose hundreds of its cities. It is highly unlikely that this was not a calculated statement. In fact, it bears the classic hallmarks of Chinese strategy: issuing a threat through a spokesperson, while being able to officially distance itself from the threat, so as to maintain a pretense of stable relations with the US .

China is living an aggressor's dream: China 's primary enemy is China 's primary source of technology and power. As US factories and technology relocate, inexorably, to China , China becomes stronger and the US becomes weaker. China appears to have a very promising future due to the US 's inability to prioritize long-term geopolitical advantage, before temporary economic prosperity.

Obviously the Chinese are diligently applying the timeless strategic wisdom of their ancient general, Sun Tsu: “ A wise general makes a point of foraging on the enemy. One cartload of the enemy's provisions is equivalent to twenty of one's own. ” Such wisdom, the West would do well to heed...

Europe

The biggest development this month was the bombings in London —not one set of bombings, but two. London is among the most surveilled cities in the world and yet, it was struck by twice in less than three weeks. This should remind everyone that the War on Terror cannot be won by defensive measures alone, due to the freedoms and open society we in the West enjoy.

After the first set of bombings, an organization calling itself the “Secret Organization of Al-Qaeda in Europe” gave notice, via the Internet, that Italy and Denmark would be next. Also, after the first bombings, the Abu Hafs Martyr Brigade warned that Rome would be the next target.

Investigations into the attacks revealed a possible Iranian link. First, we know much of Al-Qaeda's operational leadership, including, in our opinion, Osama Bin Laden, is being harbored in Iran . British intelligence officer Glen Jenvery, who is responsible for capturing Abu Hamza al-Masri, a high-level Al-Qaeda operative, has stated that there is an Iranian link. He said Abu Hamza's Al-Qaeda cells, who Jenvery feels had a role in the London bombings, have been seen in videos working with Islamic Jihad, an Iranian-backed group (http://globalpolitician.com/articledes.asp?ID=960&cid=11&sid=60).

Not only is Mustafa Setmariam Nasar, a Syrian currently in Iraq, and an associate of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, is also a top suspect in the London bombings but, according to Radio Free Europe (Dec. 2, 2004, as noted by the Regime Change Iran blog) Nasar is also a primary suspect in the Madrid bombings, which Spanish investigators believe was “at least partially” planned from Iran, with the assistance of Amer Azizi, also in Iran.

Jerusalem Post, July 2, 2005 .

AxisGlobe.com, July 2, 2005 .

Dr. Michael Waller, The Fourth World War blog.

MosNews.com, July 18, 2005 .