Monthly
Analysis:
June 2004
By:
Ryan Mauro
tdcanalyst@optonline.net
War on Terrorism
In response to the failure to find
WMDs, the findings of the 9-11 commission and political pressure,
CIA director George Tenet has agreed to step down in mid-July.
Not much can be said about this. All we can do is wait and hope
that the new director has the guts to reform the CIA, and hopefully,
get rid of various institutional biases and agendas that undermine
our intelligence gathering efforts.
The United States government in June 2004 authorized
a reduction of the American nuclear arsenal in half over the next
8 years. Over 4,600 hydrogen bombs and warheads will be destroyed,
leaving us with an arsenal of 6,000 weapons, bringing us back
to the level of the late 1950s. W80 cruise missile warheads will
be reduced by 1,000; the number of W76 Trident SLBM warheads will
be reduced by 1,500; and B61 strategic bombs will be reduced by
600. However, on the other hand, all but two types of warheads
planned for retirement will stay, and Sandia nuclear labs are
to begin new rounds of studying of how to enhance the capabilities
of the smaller arsenal including how to expand explosive yields.
[1]
WorldThreats.com cannot condemn the
reduction of a massive nuclear arsenal. But we can condemn the
weak line taken towards China and apparent failure to comprehend
their plans to modernize and expand their nuclear arsenal. In
addition we also criticize the failure of the West to see how
Russia is not fully disarming its nukes, probably has hidden stores,
and continues to produce more and more advanced nuclear weapons
meant to defeat potential anti-ballistic missile systems. We hope
the additional resources gained from the nuclear reductions will
be used efficiently.
On the terrorism front, there is increased
worry of attacks during the Democratic or Republican national
conventions or the elections. It appears that terrorists are eager
to strike this summer, particularly in Iraq and Saudi Arabia. Two Islamic terror websites posted
threats to Western airlines from the Saudi branch of Al-Qaeda
on June 7. They confirmed that the targeting of modes of transportation
were their focus.
[2]
Also this month, three Al-Qaeda operatives
tried to break into a military hospital disguised as women to
rescue the head of the terrorist squad that attacked the Khobar
installations a few months earlier.
[3]
Saudi opposition figures at the Saudi
Institute in Washington DC claims that senior elements of the Saudi security apparatus
knew the location of Al-Qaeda chief Abdul Aziz Al-Muqrin at least
three days before he killed an American hostage.
[4]
In addition, Al-Qaeda publications and tapes
indicate that elements of Saudi security are helping them carry
out attacks.
WorldThreats.com’s work with the Northeast
Intelligence Network (HomelandSecurityUS.com) has shown an increased
effort by terrorists to:
A: Conduct shootings, ambushes, assassinations
and kidnappings in Saudi Arabia and the Gulf
B: Plan for major attacks on government
and international installations in Iraq on or soon after the June 30th
handover of power. There are signs they are going to try to decapitate
the new Iraqi government. Intelligence of this nature was received
before, but in greater amounts after the tape Zarqawi made vowing
to kill the Iraqi Prime Minister Iyad Allawi.
[5]
C: Inside the US, an increased focus on using plots
involving trains. These plots involving trains differ as some
call for derailing the train, others call for exploding bombs.
Most of these plots involve other elements such as chemical weapons
or simultaneous truck bombings.
Al-Qaeda is also working to develop
a naval-strike capability by purchasing small vessels for use
as suicide boats. Al-Qaeda has published a naval manual calling
for the targeting of natural gas installations or ports with oil
and/or gas terminals. The Al-Qaeda Gulf operational commander has confirmed
plans to conduct an aerial attack against a supertanker.
[6]
An Italian prosecutor heightened the
worry by telling the press that he gave American authorities the
transcripts of phone calls between suspected terrorists including
one where they refer to a woman ready for an apparent chemical
strike inside America.
[7]
Another interesting development was that Afghan
rebel leader Gulbuddin Hekmatyar told a Pakistani paper that Osama
Bin Laden was in Kandahar, Afghanistan, and that Mullah Omar’s illness has
forced Jalaluddin Haqqani, the Taliban’s intelligence chief, to
become the new leader of the Taliban.
[8]
On the human rights front, ten nations
were threatened with sanctions by the US for making inadequate efforts to stop
human trafficking according to the State Department. The countries
were: Bangladesh, Burma/Myanmar, Cuba, Ecuador, Equatorial Guinea, Guyana, North Korea, Sierra Leone, Sudan and Venezuela.
[9]
Middle East
Despite worry of a civil war inside
Iraq, WorldThreats.com does not believe
this is likely. An opinion piece in ABC News’ online reports on
May
30, 2004,
reflected why we believe this. Among the facts given in the piece
were that the Sunnis and Shiites have not been violent for many
years, and intermarriage was very common especially in Baghdad. The religious sects have united in
the face of terrorism, rather than fighting as far as any analyst
can tell. In March 2004, radical Sunnis attacked holy Shiite shrines
in Baghdad and Karbala. If there was ever an opportunity
for civil war to break out amidst instability, it was then. Instead,
we saw thousands of pints of blood given from the Sunni areas,
particularly the strongholds of Ramadi and Fallujah.
The radical Shiites failed to instigate
a Shiite uprising even with the help of international terrorist
forces and Iran. It should also be mentioned (this
was not in the piece) that during the Iran-Iraq War, we actually
saw Iraqi Shiites fight Iranian Shiites. There was no uprising
inside Iraq. Thus, WorldThreats.com concludes
that there will not be a civil war as it does not benefit either
side, and factors such as nationalism, religious tolerance and
a longing for freedom will overcome such temptations.
There was a dramatic development in
Iraq missed by the major media, and it
dramatically decreases the chances of a civil war in Iraq. Nine Iraqi militias agreed to disband,
and contribute troops to security. Only the Fallujah Brigade (the
terrorists and ex-Republican Guard forces) and the Mehdi Army
of Moqatada al-Sadr did not agree to disband. The groups agreeing
to disband were: Iraqi National Accord, Patriotic Union of Kurdistan,
Kurdish Democratic Party, Badr Brigade, Iraqi Hezbollah, Iraqi
Communist Party, Iraqi Islamic Party, Dawa Party and Iraqi National
Congress.
[10]
This is dramatic as these forces are
already trained and equipped. Their presence in the security forces
will provide leadership, experience, and will fuse their specific
ideology and desires into the security forces as part of the movement
to create a stable, democratic Iraq, rather than pursue these desires
separately. This will show the Iraqi forces that they’re individual
beliefs are taken into consideration and are not at odds with
the goal of a democratic Iraq. This will boost nationalism, loyalty,
and morale. Additionally, it provides us with the security forces
we need and enhances intelligence many times over. They know the
terrain, culture and language better than anyone.
The UN has confirmed finding evidence
that Iraq had banned WMD programs. Missile engines
for long-range Iraqi ballistic missiles were found in Rotterdam junk yards holding iron scrap.
[11]
The UN concluded that WMD components and medium-range
ballistic missiles were shipped outside of Iraq before, during and after the war.
UNMOVIC briefed the Security Council on the new findings, showing
satellite photos that demonstrated that suspected missile and
WMD sites were dismantled. The facilities and weapons were sent
out to places in Europe and the Middle East at a rate of 1,000 tons of metal per
month. Destroyed missiles and their components were sent to Jordan, Turkey and the Netherlands. Some of these dismantled missiles
have been found with UN inspection tags on them.
[12]
Iraq Survey Group head Charles Duelfer
came out and told the press that he finds evidence of illegal
WMD activity “almost every day”, and that the ISG has confirmed
the finding of up to a dozen chemical shells armed with sarin
and mustard gas. He also warned that terrorist groups were trying
to recruit Iraq’s WMD experts.
[13]
Ahmad Chalabi, accused of deliberately giving false intelligence
(possibly on Iran’s orders) to the West has come out
and saying he has documentation proving Iraq had weapons of mass destruction. His
aides are trying to arrange a public hearing to reveal the documents.
[14]
WorldThreats.com is eagerly awaiting this event
should it occur, and also must mention that at this point, we
do not believe the accusations against Chalabi personally (it
is possible that some in the INC, possibly Chalabi’s security
chief, are Iranian agents).
June saw a new crisis develop in Iran despite having the past month or two
relatively quiet. Iran has admitted to the IAEA that they
illegally imported parts for advanced centrifuges. Despite the
admission, the IAEA reported Iran’s covering-up of a nuclear program
(note though that the IAEA has not concluded yet it is for nuclear
weapons). The inspectors noted inconsistencies in Iranian explanations
of signs of enrichment, that the Iranians lied claiming that the
traces of enriched uranium were already on the purchased equipment,
and that more traces of 36% enriched u-235 has been found. The
investigators also noted that information on centrifuges was only
submitted after long periods of pressure and even then, the information
was contradictory. In response to the pressure, senior Iranian
figures threatened to pull out of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation
Treaty.
[15]
The IAEA has also received information indicating
that Iran may have yet another hidden nuclear
site in Tehran.
[16]
Iran is so bold as to even continue the
blocking of access to special military and “civilian” sites used
in the uranium enrichment program.
[17]
Iran has even gone so far as to restart
their Shihab-4 long-range missile program.
[18]
Luckily, according to Israeli military
intelligence, Iran’s nuclear weapons quest has been delayed
by about one year due to the rigorous inspections and Western
eye over the program. Iran was forced to suspend plans to begin
full-scale uranium enrichment in 2004, making Iran capable of producing a nuclear device
by July 2004. Now, we have until summer 2005 to stop the program.
[19]
However, Iran has said they will likely begin building
centrifuge parts again soon and continue the uranium enrichment
process, so we may have even less time.
[20]
Terrorism in the Middle East continues to be encouraged by state
sponsors. Iran has begun using its state-controlled
media to incite Shiites in Bahrain, a major non-NATO ally of the US, to campaign against reforms.
[21]
A new effort inside Iran to recruit people for jihad in Iraq, Israel and Chechnya has brought in 2,000 people, some
as young as 7 years old.
[22]
By mid-June, the number reportedly reached
10,000.
[23]
Iran is also using Hezbollah to destabilize
Iraq. The Iraqi police have captured a
Hezbollah officer who hurled a grenade injuring 5 Spanish troops.
The officer confirmed that Hezbollah forces were being trained
and equipped in Iran to destabilize Iraq.
[24]
Apparently, Iran’s mullahs know they must stop the tide of reforms and
freedom in the region in order for their rule to survive.
One of the first batches of these volunteers
coming from Iran including 40 citizens from that country
heavily armed. They were captured by Ukrainian forces after they
reached Iraq, and were then turned over to British
forces.
[25]
It is not a coincidence that soon after this,
and the European condemnation of Iran’s non-cooperation with the IAEA, Iran detained British sailors (although
they were released, Iran kept much of the equipment).
At around the same time, Iran moved four divisions including the
“golden division” of the regular army close to their southern
border with Iraq. It was likely in response to the
tensions of the month, and in preparation to invade Iraq should the US withdraw.
[26]
Meanwhile, in Syria, the crackdown on freedom is getting
more extreme to counter the popularity of potential reformers
and protestors. The Reform Party of Syria is now broadcasting
into Syria in an attempt to undermine the Baathist
regime. In response to emboldened Kurdish activists, Syria randomly arrested and sometimes tortured
Kurds. Syria even went as far as to ban all 13
Kurdish parties.
[27]
In response, the Syrian Committee for Human
Rights published a list of 580 political prisoners being held
at the Saydanaya prison alone.
[28]
In regards to terrorism, the CIA believes that
Syria has stopped the Damascus-based propaganda
arms of Hamas, Islamic Jihad, Hezbollah, and PFLP-GC but is still
allowing their operational arms to work.
[29]
Egypt’s WMD programs are finally being acted
against. The Proliferation Security Initiative alliance member,
Turkey, intercepted a ship with highly sophisticated
missiles sent for Egypt from Ukraine.
[30]
This shows Egypt that despite being a major non-NATO
ally of the US, its WMD programs will not be tolerated.
The Egyptian government, especially as Mubarak falls ill, is likely
to grow more and more anti-American as Islamic radicalism grows
there. Radical Islam’s popularity is likely responsible for the
move in early June by Egyptian authorities to raid book stores,
and confiscate publications “not conforming to Islam” (according
to the judgment of Sunni leaders who demanded, and received, the
power to order the destruction of “un-Islamic” materials).
[31]
Asia
Some analysts cheered when Russia joined the Proliferation Security
Initiative meant to intercept shipments of illegal goods, particularly
WMD components going to and from rogue states.
[32]
WorldThreats.com believes Russia is trying to shield itself from Western
pressure. Russia has long been a major, if not the
most major, suppliers of WMD-related goods and conventional arms
to rogue states. We’ve been down this road before. Russia almost certainly will never stop selling
goods to our enemies, as it not only raises money for them, but
also helps them create an international anti-American alliance.
Russia has nothing to lose from joining the
PSI alliance. In fact, Russia can even used the pooled intelligence
used by the alliance to
A) Ensure that they aren’t caught selling
illegal goods to rogue states
B) Help rogue states thwart the efforts
to stop their acquirement of illegal goods.
Even if Russia’s government is genuinely in favor
of PSI, which we highly doubt, it is still extremely probable
that corruption in Russia will allow the shipments from Russia to continue, possibly with the assistance
of intelligence gained from joining the PSI.
On the Korean Peninsula, the US has begun to formally offer aid to
North Korea. WorldThreats.com believes that aid
should only be offered when we can verify it is going to the people,
not the military or government alone. It must also only be delivered
when steps to nuclear disarmament begin. Each step can be rewarded
with new incentives. But aid should be limited; it mustn’t allow
the regime to live on longer than necessary.
Hopefully, South Korea will soon begin taking responsibility
for their own defense. The removal of 12,000 American troops from
the country to go to Iraq may prompt this. If South Korea is forced to defend herself, maybe
then they’ll take the North Korean threat a little more seriously.
If not, then our obligations to South Korea are no longer valid.
The Chinese-Taiwan tension briefly
heated up with talks of new arms purchases by Taiwan, and usual tough talk by the Chinese.
In the midst of this, a top defense official in Taiwan said he wouldn’t be surprised if China attacked in 2006, a critical point
for Taiwan to decide its relationship with China and desire for independence. At that
time, China will be willing and able to blockade
the island using missile-strike zones.
[33]
Africa
Since the US departure from Liberia after the removal of Charles Taylor,
little has been noticed about his reign. Investigators are finding
that his rule was not only corrupt, but that he allowed (and possibly
was complicit in) Al-Qaeda to launder funds through the illegal
trading of precious diamonds in Liberia. Further investigation revealed that
Liberia also harbored three Al-Qaeda suspects
in the 1998 embassy bombings in the Liberian capital as late as
June or July 2001.
[34]
There is no proof Charles Taylor knew of their
presence.
In Zimbabwe, Mugabe is in the final steps of making
a completely socialist, authoritarian state (if there isn’t a
civil war). His anti-white rhetoric is reaching an all-time high,
as he had the government seize the rest of the farm land. The
Land Reform Minister proudly proclaimed there would no longer
be private land. Senior officials later on said that whites would
be removed from the country, although there has been no formal
expulsion.
[35]
As for Libya, an abundance of accusations are coming
out that Muammar Gadhafi has not fully turned-around yet. Reports
indicate that the IAEA doubts Libya’s claims that they didn’t review Chinese
nuclear designs. Yet, inspectors found Chinese-written documents
on how to design and manufacture nuclear warheads. Libya claims these documents were not used
in the program.
[36]
In addition, there is good evidence that Libya attempted to sponsor and direct terrorist
attacks as late as autumn 2003. Abdurrahman Alamoudi, an American-Muslim
leader in jail for having connections to terrorists and taking
Libyan funding (possibly for terrorism?) as well as a Libyan intelligence
official in Saudi custody have confirmed the plot.
They each gave their interrogators
specific details about a plot to kill Crown Prince Abdullah of
Saudi Arabia. Alamoudi says he met with Gadhafi
in between June and August 2003. The intelligence agent confirms
he was an operational commander for the plot in November 2003.
The agent was arrested when he was caught trying to give $1 million
to four Saudi terrorists to help them attack Abdullah’s motorcade
with shoulder-fired missiles and grenade launchers.
[37]
The Saudi press also accused Libya of plotting to kill the Arab League
Secretary-General Amr Mousa after he rejected Libyan plans for
an Arab union.
[38]
Libya agreed to disarm its WMD programs
and dramatically reform that in late November and December 2003.
WorldThreats.com concludes this is from the seizure of evidence
proving Libya had a nuclear program, and the capture
of the intelligence agent leading the plot in Saudi Arabia. Gadhafi realized he could no longer
hide behind a cloud of deniability, and had to change. But that
doesn’t mean he won’t try to get away with what he can.
Gadhafi’s son, apparently aware of
the reports going around, denied that there was such a terrorist
plot and soon after, his organization announced the release of
28 political prisoners.
[39]
[1]
Alameda
Times-Star Online, June
4, 2004.
[3]
Al-Quds al-Arabi, June 10, 2004.
[4]
World Tribune, June
23, 2004.
[6]
Geostrategy-Direct.com, week of June
29, 2004.
[7]
Washington
Post, June 10, 2004.
[8]
Geostrategy-Direct.com, week of June
29, 2004.
[9]
Associated Press, June
14, 2004.
[10]
New York Times, June
7, 2004.
[11]
Al-Zaman, June 9, 2004.
[12]
World Tribune, June
11, 2004.
[13]
New York
Post, June 25, 2004.
[14]
Al-Yawm al-Aakher, June 7, 2004.
[15]
New York Times, June
1, 2004.
[16]
Geostrategy-Direct.com, week of June
29, 2004.
[17]
IRNA (Iran),
June 2, 2004.
[18]
Al-Sharq Al-Awsat, June 14, 2004.
[19]
Middle East Newsline,
June 2, 2004.
[20]
Washington
Post, June 25, 2004.
[21]
New York
Post, June 1, 2004.
[22]
Sharq (Iran),
June 5, 2004.
[23]
Middle East Newsline,
June 16, 2004.
[24]
Geostrategy-Direct.com, week of June
29, 2004.
[25]
Al-Zaman, June 9, 2004.
[26]
Al-Sharq Al-Awsat, June 15, 2004.
[27]
Reform Party of Syria,
June 2, 2004.
[28]
Akhbar al-Sharq, May 31, 2004.
[29]
Middle East Newsline,
June 25, 2004.
[30]
Al-Sharq Al-Awsat, June 4, 2004.
[31]
Middle East Online,
June 5, 2004.
[32]
Associated Press, June
1, 2004.
[33]
WorldNetDaily.com, June
10, 2004.
[34]
Associated Press, June
1, 2004.
[35]
Newsmax.com, June
8, 2004.
[36]
Geostrategy-Direct.com, week of June
15, 2004.
[37]
New York Times, June
9, 2004.
[38]
Okaz (Saudi Arabia),
June 14, 2004.
[39]
Al-Raya, June 11, 2004.