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Monthly Analysis: March 2005 By:
Ryan Mauro
In
our opinion, the most interesting development this month, in the
War on Terrorism, was new intelligence indicating that Osama bin
Laden had relinquished day-to-day control of jihadi operations,
while still remaining the jihadi movement’s spiritual figurehead
and main moneyman. Ayman al-Zawahiri appears to be maintaining
liaisons with local groups and sectors of certain intelligence
services, and setting the general technical planning (and likely
authorizing certain attacks and distributing responsibility). It also appears that Al-Qaeda has given Abu Musab al-Zarqawi
control over the Iraqi conflict, and freedom to utilize the network
based in This thinking seems to be confirmed
by an intercepted message sent by bin Laden to Zarqawi urging
him to execute attacks on Progress is being made in The latest WMD report criticizes American
intelligence, as it should. But there’s a major point made in
the report that the mainstream media isn’t covering. It states
that the Iraqi National Congress and Ahmed Chalabi had a “negligible
impact” on American WMD intelligence, and that they provided only
two defectors. It also confirmed that the INC was not connected
to the defector “curveball”, and there’s no evidence that Chalabi,
the INC, or anyone else directed him to lie. It should also be mentioned that two
key American supporters of Chalabi have had obstruction-of-justice
charges dismissed. Francis Brooke and Margaret Bartel were accused
by Zuhair al-Maliky, an unqualified judge appointed by Paul Bremer.
[iii]
This surely does give ammunition to those that
say the war against Chalabi by the State Department and Coalition
Provincial Authority was politically motivated. There was also new evidence released
that In other venues, anthrax was confirmed
to be present in two Pentagon mail facilities. It is the same
genetic strain as that found in 2001.
[v]
Why isn’t this getting more media attention? The United Nations is in its worst
crisis of the last fifty years. The UN-sponsored Oil-For-Food
Report was issued, and it criticized Kofi Annan for not noticing
widespread corruption, not the least of which is his son’s shady
dealings. Perhaps a second investigation should be launched into
bribery of inspectors and the personal agendas of certain staff,
such as El-Baradei of the IAEA. Recently a new case of bribery was revealed. Tariq Aziz offered
$2 million to the UN’s chief weapons inspector from 1991 to 1997,
Rolf Ekeus, to slant his reporting on Iraqi weapons of mass destruction.
Ekeus, who reported the story, claims he did not take the bribe.
[vi]
In a development not covered by cable
news, the New York Times published a report basically claiming
there were weapons of mass destruction-related equipment and facilities
before the war began. The Iraqi government believes looters systematically
dismantled tons of machinery from the 90 important weapons sites
– as confirmed by a UN report – and took items including high-precision
equipment used to make nuclear components. Equipment capable of
producing chemical, biological or nuclear weapons was missing
from 8-10 sites. Some material appears to have been transported
to other countries, as chemical weapons equipment has been seized
in Although the situation in According to polls, opinion among Iraqis
regarding the situation there has reached a new high. 62% feel
conditions are headed in the right direction, while only 23% hold
the opposite view. 48% favor a “special role” for religion in
government, while 44% think religion and government should be
totally separate. Only 4% of the Iraqis feel that Sharia should
be the most important element of the constitution.
[ix]
Major progress has been made in assisting the Iraqis in
taking control of their country. On March 24, the Iraqi “Wolves
Brigade” recaptured the Sunni-dominated southwestern portion of
Unfortunately, it appears negotiations between the EU3
( Thus, the Israelis are preparing to
stop, or at least delay, the Iranians from obtaining a nuclear weapon.
According to leaked information, an Israeli assault would comprise
both air and ground operations. The Shaldag commandos are reportedly
to be already training, using a mock uranium enrichment plant
similar to the facility at Natanz. F-15 jets of Squadron 69 using
bunker buster bombs would perform the aerial assault.
[x]
This summer of 2005 is going to be
a hot one. Demonstrations in It does appear that the Iranian situation will have to be resolved
with force. Despite the negotiations, and intense observation
of the Iranians, by several governments, there is intelligence
indicating that Something significant must happen regarding
Stopping There were significant developments
among the Iranian opposition this month. One day after 565 dissidents
published an open letter criticizing the mullahs, a major coalition
of expatriates formed the Iranian Opposition Council, which includes
all manner of ideologies from republicans to monarchists. The
Council will begin activities in mid-April.
[xv]
However, according to Iranian activist sources,
the Bush Administration is not taking this group too seriously
and they likely lack popular support inside
Moshen Sazegara, an Iranian dissident, once imprisoned
by the mullahs, is likely to make the news when However, his joining the Washington Institute for Near East
Policy can be a hopeful sign, as he brings attention to the referendum
cause, and begins pushing for further investigation into Over to Syrian intelligence forced store owners to close during the
protests, and pressured them to head to the Mazza highway, to
join the rally. Over a half-million Syrians, who work in Government workers and students were threatened with losing
their jobs, or failing their classes. Add that to Hezbollah’s
support for the demonstrations, and you have one colossal spectacle.
[xvii]
And that makes it even more amazing that the
Lebanese, soon after, managed to generate equally massive demonstrations
– only entirely comprised of Lebanese, with no manipulations.
Bashar Assad is in his most vulnerable moment since his
regime assumed power. In a development that some say means hell
has frozen over, The questionable Israeli intelligence
source, Debkafile, has reported that there has been a “complete
collapse” of the pro-Syrian political and intelligence structure
in However, while WorldThreats.com’s sources indicate there is
a less visible presence and more “free” air on the ground, another
source with close contacts within the Lebanese opposition leaders
claims WorldThreats.com supports the The Palestinian areas have long been
radicalized. We’ve all seen the videos of children’s TV programs
touting the glories of becoming a martyr, and killing Israelis.
They’re taught that Israeli innocents and soldiers alike are synonymous
targets. When asked, many analysts vacillated, stating that first,
the propaganda would have to end for there to be peace, and then
the radicalized people would have to die off or become powerless Yet conditions have changed, probably due to recent elections,
and developments in surrounding areas. Over the past six months,
there has been a tremendous drop in support for suicide bombings
by Palestinians. Previously, 77% of Palestinians supported terrorist
tactics, and now only 29% do!
[xxi]
If this dramatic reversal of opinion holds,
this would be a greater development than the elections in the
Palestinian areas, and the death of Arafat. We found a particular survey in As noted previously, negotiations with
Negotiations are also being conducted that are aimed at requiring
However, should Hezbollah refuse to
disarm, they cannot be tolerated indefinitely. Hezbollah leader
Nasrallah has stated, on TV, that a European Union blacklist of
his group would “destroy” them by drying up funding and critical
sources of moral, political and material support. The West would
do well to remember this statement, while keeping in mind that
it may be aimed at increasing European-US tension over Hezbollah.
[xxiii]
Shady events continue to transpire in the
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