War on Terrorism
Amidst reports that Al-Qaeda has plans to strike before the US Presidential election, or at least before the inauguration, there was increased speculation about where Osama Bin Laden is. Peter Bergen, a leading terrorism expert, said in early September that bin Laden is most likely in a Pakistani city, or in the mountains of Azad Kashmir. He pointed out that Baluchistan and the Northwest Frontier Province are good hiding places for bin Laden. Bergen claimed his sources said bin Laden was in satisfactory medical condition, despite his injuries at Tora Bora in 2001. During that attack, he reportedly paid Pashtun tribes to help him transit undetected into Parachinar.

Joseph Cofer Black, the US State Department coordinator for terrorism, said that due to recent Pakistani anti-terrorism operations, the West had moved closer to capturing or killing bin Laden during the past two months. While this is likely true, he was rounded condemned because the comment obviously got people’s hopes up. According to some reports, Black made the statement in an attempt to agitate bin Laden into changing his location and possibly allow US intelligence to pick up his movements.

Regardless of bin Laden’s status, it’s becoming quite clear to analysts that Ayman al-Zawahiri is taking over as the dominant player of the Al-Qaeda network. He has issued all the important videotapes, audiotapes, written statements and apparently, many of the operational directions. On September 9, it was reported that he issued a videotape claiming the terrorists were going to “bleed to death” the American forces, that victory was ahead in Iraq and Afghanistan, and that southern and eastern Afghanistan were controlled by the mujahadeen. Interestingly, in the tape, Zawahiri failed to indicate why bin Laden was not appearing. In a subsequent tape, which he released on the last day of September, during the presidential debate, Zawahiri called for young Muslims to join the jihad, and threatened the US, UK, Australia, France, Poland, Norway, South Korea and Japan.

The string of threats is disturbing considering the intelligence indicating preparations for a terrorist attack around the time of the election. Perhaps the most disturbing piece of intelligence related to this is that top Al-Qaeda officials are meeting with a Salvadoran criminal gang that has connections in Mexico and southwest America, in an attempt to get help in smuggling operations across the border. The Mara Salvatorcha group is known for its successful smuggling business.
On a separate issue, and one likely to be cited, given that this is an election year, Globescan polling indicates that of 35 countries studied, Kerry is overwhelmingly favored for the US Presidency. In Germany, for example, only 10% liked Bush, compared to 74% for Kerry. In France, only 5% fancied Bush, and in the UK, only 16% preferred Bush, compared to 47% for Kerry. In China, 52% favored Kerry. Only Poland, Nigeria and the Philippines liked Bush, and India and Thailand were split between the two candidates.

Middle East
There was renewed violence in Israel this month, which passed with little notice from the major media. According to Ariel Sharon, Syria is to blame for much of the violence. When two suicide bombers struck buses in late August, killing 16, Israeli intelligence claimed the terrorists’ instructions came from bases in Syria. This occurred at the exact same time as a joint American-French resolution was introduced in the UN, demanding that Syria withdraw from Lebanon and allow free elections there.
Regarding terrorism in Israel, it should be noted that the Israeli security wall is working quite well. WorldThreats.com is well aware of how controversial the wall is, and the problems the wall brings. However, as reported by an Israeli domestic intelligence agency, it is now undeniable that it has been immensely effective—there has been an 84% decrease in the number of Israelis killed since the completion of the first fence in August 2003.
Sources tell WorldThreats.com that the leak regarding Syrian WMD testing in Sudan may be part of a plan to reveal the placement of Iraq's own banned weapons in Syria. According to the sources, this was part of the plan; the question now is if they’ll go through with the whole plan. The source stressed it’s a very fragile situation that could potentially backfire if not executed correctly.

It began with the German daily Die Welt reporting that Syria tested chemical weapons on civilians in the Darfur province of the Sudan. Victims were seen in hospitals after the alleged tests—following a joint Sudanese-Syrian military exercise in May—with symptoms consistent with exposure to chemical weapons. Back during the spring, Middle East Newsline reported that Syria had moved some WMDs to Sudan, but that they, supposedly, were then removed at Sudan’s request. Apparently, in connection with the exercise, at least five Syrian Arab Airlines aircraft flew Syrian chemical weapons specialists into Sudan.

The same month, a Sudanese Antonov aircraft dropped rectangular plastic sacks of white powder on a dry riverbed, in a lower part of the same village, where tests were suspected. On the same day, another fighter-jet dropped a bomb on the other side of the village that produced a poisonous smoke, making fifty people sick. Then in August, the Sudanese air force sprayed another Darfur village with a strange powder that killed two people and injured dozens.

As a result of all this and, according to reliable information obtained from the CIA that cited “clear evidence” Syrian weapons and experts were present and used, US intelligence “determined” that Syria had used WMDs in Sudan’s Darfur province. A range of air bombs, and possibly rockets, filled with chemical and biological weapons, were used, with the bombs being delivered by Sudanese An-24 air transports.

Syria may be attempting to disperse some of its holdings of Iraqi WMDs. It was leaked that Bashar Assad is in secret negotiations with the Iranians to send, to Tehran, about a dozen mid-level Iraqi nuclear technicians, who have been harbored in Damascus. They will bring with them CDs containing Saddam’s nuclear weapons data and research. They reportedly received new identities, and false certificates and Ids, upon their arrival in Syria. Assad is hoping that they can assist Iran’s nuclear program—technology that will, in return, then be shared with Syria.

Finally, though, it appears that the “diplomacy-only” strategy is coming to an end. According to some reports, the Bush Administration has finished drafting contingency plans for a new campaign of economic and military pressure against Damascus in 2005. There is a range of “military options” being considered, to put Syria on the defensive, and to encourage insurrection there. It is possible that this campaign has slowly begun already, as the US has presented Assad with evidence that Syrian officials are providing haven to Iraqi officials, who are helping organize terrorism in Iraq.

Yasser Arafat has finally been fingered as having a role in the murder of two American diplomats, in Sudan, in 1973. During that incident, eight Black September terrorists—Black September was part of Arafat’s Fatah—seized the Saudi embassy. The FBI is investigating Arafat’s involvement, which has been a long time coming, since the NSA’s Palestinian analyst at the time, says he taped an intercepted message, directly from Arafat, ordering the execution of the diplomats.
In an event that went unnoticed by the media, a top Iraqi nuclear scientist, who worked for Saddam since 1984, was recently assassinated. According to his brother, Muhammad al-Touqi al-Taleqani was killed in the first week of September.

Also, a new Iraq Survey Group report indicates that it was likely Saddam Hussein had not launched “full-scale production” of weapons of mass destruction. However, the report concluded Iraq intended to make such weapons the moment sanctions were lifted, and had retained the ability to produce-on-demand, and that labs were created that made small amounts of banned weapons for assassinations.

Iran continues to be the most troubling nation-state in the region. The commander of the Revolutionary Guard, reacting to UN pressure, blasted that the time was near to obliterate Israel. The Iranians have decided to continue with plans to turn 40 tons of uranium into uranium hexafluoride, which is critical to the uranium enrichment via centrifuge for nuclear weapons.

US intelligence has concluded that Iran intends to enrich enough uranium to potentially produce four nuclear weapons. This has led Israel’s military-intelligence chief to conclude Iran will have nuclear capability—all the components necessary for a bomb—in the spring of 2005. In preparation for a potential attempt to bomb key nuclear sites, the Iranians claimed that “independent” human shield groups had recruited 25,000 people to protect the Bushehr reactor.

The Institute of Science and International Security has released photos of an Iranian base at Parchnin, which is 30 kilometers southeast of Tehran. The site may be used for testing nuclear explosives and missile delivery systems. It appears that Iran is dispersing their sites making it impossible for an air campaign to destroy the nuclear program.
Iran is also developing the means to deliver such a weapon to Western Europe. The Iranians confirmed they successfully tested a long-range “strategic missile” that can reach as far as London. This apparently was in response to an Israeli purchase of 500 bunker busters from the USA days earlier. These weapons cannot be used against the Palestinian terrorists—they are almost certainly aimed at heavily fortified Syrian and Iranian targets.

The insurgency in Iraq continues with Iranian and Syrian support. However, it appears that the two countries have played a much larger role in Al-Qaeda operations since the fall of Saddam. Two key suspects in the Istanbul bombings—executed by an Al-Qaeda affiliate—in November 2003, have admitted they received money for the operation from Al-Qaeda. The money came from sources in Europe and Iran, via a Syrian national. Yemeni intelligence also determined that the renewed Shiite insurgency in the north, led by the “Believing Youth”, was financed, armed and trained by Iran.

Additionally, Hamas—sponsored by Syria and Iran—has been conducting suicide strikes in Iraq, after being hired by Abu Musab al-Zarqawi and Iran. Hamas also teamed up with Hezbollah in Iraq—also sponsored by Syria and Iran—where they have been working together to attack the Iraqi police and National Guard in Shiite areas. Fortunately, the Iraqis are assisting the fight against the terrorists; Iraqi civilians captured six Syrian terrorists trying to plant bombs in a Baghdad suburb.

Qatar, once called the US’s “new best friend” in the region, has recently been criticized by US intelligence for not committing fully to the War on Terrorism. Al-Qaeda, says the reports, continues to operate there, and the security services do little more than monitor their activities.

Ironically, Saudi Arabia, another key ally in the war on terrorism, who is well known to have shady connections, was praised in September. US intelligence believes that, while the Saudis continue to export radicalism overseas, the Saudis have destroyed most of the Al-Qaeda leadership based in their country.

Europe
Finally, the arguments about the forged documents regarding “uranium from Niger” may be solved, and the likely results are startling. In September, Italian diplomats accused France of being behind the documents, by using an Italian middleman to pass the information to Western intelligence. To back up their claims, the diplomats gave the London Telegraph a photo of this Italian middleman, meeting with an alleged senior French intelligence officer in Brussels. Soon after, it was revealed that this “middleman” admitted he was on the payroll of French intelligence.

As usual, Bill Gertz of the Washington Times has startled us with his provocative reporting. In his upcoming book, he reveals how France illegally sold Saddam Hussein warplane and helicopter parts. By the year 2000, France was Iraq’s largest supplier of military and dual-use equipment, with parts arriving for Saddam as late as January 2003.
According to Gertz, Pentagon reporting indicates that, in the months after the fall of Baghdad, the Saddam regime covertly purchased between 650,000 and 1 million tons of conventional weapons abroad—mainly from France, Russia and China. To put that amount of weapons in perspective, the total of the US arsenal is between 1.6 and 1.8 million tons.

Asia
Asia has become a new hotspot as a result of a Chechen-linked terrorism offensive in Russia. The offensive was launched right around the elections, at the end of August 2004, in which the Russian-backed candidate, Alu Alkhanov, won. The previous leader, Akhmad Kadyrov was killed in May.
Fraud and cheating is common in the former Soviet Union, with some analysts suggesting Russia is behind a lot of it. Thus, it was no surprise when the opposing candidates claimed this was the case. Abdullah Bugayev’s team reported several violations relating to the election, saying that workers for Alkhanov were seen ordering people to vote for him. Representatives of another candidate, Movsur Khamidov, reported similar violations, noting that his team found stuffed ballot boxes shortly before polling began.
Similar foul play was suspected in the Ukraine. An opposition leader there—and presidential candidate—had to go to a hospital in Vienna, saying he feared for his live in the Ukraine or Russia, due to what he claims was an assassination attempt. Some food he ate was found to have been chemically poisoned.