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Monthly Analysis: August 2005

By: Ryan Mauro
tdcanalyst@optonline.net

      August was the biggest blow to the 9/11 Commission yet. The “Able Danger” story revealed that important information was not included in the Commission’s report, and that the case is far from closed. FrontPage Magazine posted a superior article on Able Danger Commission reposted at: http://www.worldthreats.com/al-qaeda_terrorism/Able%20Danger%20and%20The%20Intelligence%20Wall.htm

      In addition, Ken Timmerman’s book, partly regarding Iranian involvement with Al-Qaeda and 9/11, also confirms this. Important, credible testimony, and even written documentation, was not included the 9/11 report, and was not even taken seriously by the CIA.

      Problems within the intelligence community have obviously not been remedied. According to Geostrategy-Direct.com, there is a backlog of some 8,300 hours of insurgency-related information that remains untranslated, twice the amount of the backlog in 2004. The story also stated that a national agency, created in April, to coordinate FBI efforts at all levels, only has two contractors and one full-time employee.

      Cyber security also needs to be fortified. Recently, a hacker, who gained access to the Randolph AFB Air Personnel Center, in San Antonio, stole social security numbers, birthdays, and other personal data regarding over 33,000 Air Force officers.1

      Edward Morrissey of The Weekly Standard (August 17, 2005) reported a much-overlooked potential link between 9/11 and Iraq. In early 2001, Germany arrested two Iraqi intelligence officers in Heidelberg, and Germany, of course, is where much of the planning and preparations for 9/11 was executed.

      Al-Watan al-Arabi reported that the arrests occurred in light of reports that Iraq was reorganizing its external intelligence service, as the Iraqi regime had “drawn up a plan to strike US interests around the world through a network of alliances with extremist fundamentalist parties.” From the investigation that involved the arrest of the Iraqis, the German authorities uncovered “serious indications of cooperation between Iraq and Bin Laden.” We know that Mohammed Atta and Ramzi Bin al-Shibh met in Berlin in January 2001. We also know that Ziad Jarrah left Germany the same week that these Iraqis were arrested.

      To be sure, all this is still circumstantial evidence, but evidence that needs to be investigated further. We all need to know what the Iraqis were doing there at that time, and why those arrests caused the German authorities to lend credence to the possibility of an Iraqi-al Qaeda link.

Middle East

      The insurgency continued unabated this month, likely inspired by the pending adoption of an Iraqi constitution. The insurgency’s capabilities were upgraded recently, due to their acquisition of new IEDs equipped with shaped charges that can pierce heavily armored M1-A1s. A significant shipment of these new, more sophisticated IEDs was recently intercepted as they were being transported into Iraq, via Iran.

      Analysts note that clearly, Hezbollah is responsible for the design of these new IEDs. An Iranian-sponsored terrorist organization, Hezbollah is often employed to sponsor and support insurgencies throughout the world.

      A TIME report noted that a US military-intelligence document revealed that an insurgency faction, led by Abu Mustafa al-Sheibani, was facilitating the delivery of these new devices to Iraq. The group has 280 members in 17 weapons-production teams. TIME also stated that Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps files indicate that, in August 2004, Iran was paying the salaries of 11,740 members of the Badr Brigades.

      The Iranians are also believed to have organized a mob attack, in June 2003, in southern Iraq that killed six British soldiers. Abu Hassan, a former member of Saddam Hussein’s armored corps, claims that, in the summer of 2004, the Iranians recruited him to furnish them with the names and addresses of officials in Iraq’s Interior Ministry. The TIME report also revealed a failed Iranian assassination plot against Iyad Allawi.

      Another report indicated that explosive devices that can defeat Western jamming equipment and, can be triggered by an infrared beam, were killing British troops. These types of weapons were first used by Hezbollah against the Israelis in 1995, and are also being transported into Iraq, via Iran.2

      The official Iraqi spokesperson also criticized Jordan for its role in the insurgency. Members of Saddam Hussein’s family, including his two oldest daughters, are living in Amman, along with other former regime elements, and supervisors of some terrorist groups, and are helping fund the insurgency.3

      There was also a threat of a Shiite vs. Shiite civil war, in Iraq, as forces loyal to the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI) clashed with Moqtada al-Sadr’s Mehdi Army. Iran backs Al-Sadr so, of course, this could be an attempt by Iran to force SCIRI (which, apparently, is not an Iranian puppet as some, mostly opponents of the war, have alleged) into acknowledging that Iran has the upper hand. Or, perhaps, Iran simply wanted to use this tactic to further its aims of destabilizing the situation in Iraq. The clashes have ended, but it will be interesting to see how this issue develops.

      More information was revealed this month regarding the manipulated elections in Iran, this summer. Opposition sources claim that national identification cards for about five million deceased people were furnished to regime supporters so they could vote multiple times at different polling stations.4

      Hopefully, Iran will soon be penalized for their nuclear program. Negotiations with the EU-3 have formally been terminated, and there’s really no more negotiating to be pursued. Iran removed the final UN seals from equipment at Esfahan, as UN observers stood by and watched. Although, technically, Iran is allowed to have a nuclear program, the world body recognizes that a radical Islamic-led Iran, with the capability to produce nuclear weapons, is a monumental threat to global freedom and security.

      Israeli intelligence, especially regarding Libya, has generally been more accurate than American intelligence. The fact that the IDF intelligence chief stated recently that Iran’s nuclear program is significantly more advanced, than the US currently supposes, needs to be heeded. He feels Iran will be able to independently produce a nuclear warhead in about three years.5 To be fair, while its obvious Iran is pursuing nuclear weapons, the IAEA concluded that particles of highly enriched uranium, found on Iranian centrifuge components, originated at the source from which the components were imported.6

      In addition, the prominent Iranian opposition figure, Alireza Jafarzadeh, has stated that Iran has produced 4,000 centrifuges, used to enrich uranium for the Natanz facility, and is still producing additional units.7

      Israel completed the withdrawal of Jewish settlements in Gaza, this month, despite widespread protest. Despite the move, terrorists struck on August 28, wounding nearly 50 Israelis. WorldNetDaily’s Aaron Klein reported that security sources told him that the Islamic Jihad cell responsible for the attacks was “directed and funded in part by Syria, in conjunction with Hezbollah militants.”

      Intelligence sources concur that the gap left by the Israelis, in Gaza, will be filled, not by reliable Palestinian counter-terrorism forces, but by Hezbollah, Hamas and Iranian and Syrian operatives. In a move sure to anger conservatives, and opponents of terrorist appeasement, Condoleezza Rice called for even greater withdraws from the West Bank and Gaza Strip. It will be interesting to see if she alters her position in the coming months.

Africa

      Mauritania may soon become a new sponsor of terrorism. This month, a pro-terrorism coup replaced the anti-terrorism government. After the government was replaced, 21 Islamic leaders, arrested for advocating and assisting terrorism, were released. The leaders of the coup are tied to pro-Al-Qaeda clerics, and are also tied to the Salafist Brigade for Combat and Call. The new leaders of Mauritania openly opposed the country’s cooperation with the United States in the War on Terrorism.8

Europe

      The biggest news this month was that the EU3-Iran negotiations have finally been concluded. The Europeans have taken a surprisingly tough stance toward Iran, as even the French are stating that Iran will be referred to the UN Security Council, for sanctions. Russia and China are likely to veto such sanctions, though. In a report posted by MEMRI, the chief Iranian negotiator, Hosein Musavian, boasted that, “thanks to the negotiations with Europe, we gained another year, in which we completed [the uranium-conversion facility] in Esfahan.”

      Hopefully now, international support for the people of Iran, and their opposition to the radical Islamic-led regime, can gather momentum.

Latin America

      Apparently inspired by Akbar Ganji, the Iranian who protested his detainment with a 70-plus-day hunger strike, which energized the anti-mullah, pro-freedom movement in Iran, there is now a similar development in Cuba. We don’t know if news regarding Ganji’s hunger strike was blocked in Cuba, so it could also be just a coincidence, but Rene Gomez Manzano began a hunger strike on August 22nd, to protest his own imprisonment by Cuban authorities.9

      In the first week of August, Venezuelan president Hugo Chavez, terminated cooperation with the US Drug Enforcement Administration, claiming the US was deploying DEA employees as agents to spy on Venezuela.

      Evangelist Pat Robertson called for the assassination of Chavez this month, causing a major uproar among the media, and a quick apology, on his part. However, one must understand that, all theological debate aside, Robertson had a point and, if nothing else, brought considerable attention to Chavez’s belligerent, anti-American stance. Robertson stated that assassinating Chavez would be less costly than a war with him. In that respect, Robertson’s comments were correct.

      Although one may argue the urgency for such aggressive measures, there can be no doubt that Chavez is:

      1. An enemy of freedom: Chavez has taken control of the media and oil industry, and is poised to take control of Venezuela’s private banking system as part of his “revolutionary” goal of controlling the economy of the world's fifth largest oil producer. There are also credible reports that a recent referendum against his regime was manipulated in favor of Chavez.

      2. On an arms buying spree: Chavez has been buying considerable amounts of conventional weapons from Spain, Russia, China and Brazil. He’s also created local militias that he claims will be used as a form of resistance against the “coming American invasion”.

      3. Possibly seeking WMD technology: Chavez is discussing “atomic cooperation” with Iran. The Iranians are supposedly eager to sell “peaceful” nuclear technology to him. In addition, according to Spain's Ministry of Industry, Commerce and Tourism, Spain sold conventional weapons, chemical warfare agents, and radioactive materials to Venezuela in the first quarter of 2004. There are also unverified reports, from late 2002, that Fidel Castro moved a biological weapons lab to Venezuela, but there is no confirmation of this.

      4. Sponsoring terrorism: There is concrete evidence that Venezuela has been assisting the Marxist FARC, which the US State Department has designated as a terrorist organization. According to Chavez’ former pilot, Chavez also sent $1 million to the Taliban and Al-Qaeda in October 2001.

      5. A Geopolitical threat: Chavez had close ties to Saddam Hussein, and is currently allied to Iran, Cuba, China, Russia and Brazil. Venezuela is obviously – and Chavez’ former personal pilot warned of this – attempting to form an anti-American alliance, a sort of Warsaw Pact of the 21st century. Chavez has been backing anti-American Marxists throughout Latin America, leaving only Colombia as the sole American ally in the region.

      And the goal of all this? Some say geopolitical posturing. Others, including Chavez’ personal pilot, say it is preparation for economic warfare against the United States.

1 MSNBC, August 23, 2005.

2 Telegraph, August 21, 2005.

3 Associated Press, August 21, 2005.

4 Wall Street Journal, July 27, 2005.

5 Ynet News, August 16, 2005.

6 Daily Times, August 20, 2005.

7 The Scotsman, August 10, 2005.

8 Geostrategy-Direct.com, week of August 23, 2005.

9 New York Sun, August 22, 2005.