Monthly Analysis: February 2006

Monthly Analysis: March 2006

By: RYAN MAURO (TDCAnalyst@aol.com)

One interesting note before we discuss the biggest issues of the month (mostly the Iraqi document release). The author feels it is worth noting that there is a widespread persecution of Christians going on, and we almost never hear about it. The Open Doors organization has released the 2006 World Watch List which ranked countries around the world based on their religious persecution. The top ten countries guilty of persecuting Christians are as follows: North Korea, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Somalia, Maldives, Bhutan, Yemen, Vietnam, Laos and China.

The DOCEX Release: Iraqi Documents Paint New Picture of Pre-War Scenario

First of all, audio transcripts of Saddam Hussein discussing WMD were released, where he is adamant that the stockpiles were destroyed. According to posts on the Free Republic conservative forum, General Georges Sada, the former #2 leader of the Iraqi Air Force, and one of very few available translators who knows the Tikriti dialect, has listened to those tapes and said that the tapes were poorly translated. Others have told the author that on some tapes, Saddam and his officials are reciting their lines to UN inspectors, and that translators thought they were talking candidly and honestly, as opposed to explaining the dialogue going on with the international community.

At the same time, we must consider that other tapes (as discussed in February’s monthly analysis) discuss a nuclear program and (as discussed in my book, Death to America: The Unreported Battle of Iraq), Iraqi documents provide evidence that small amounts of chemical and biological weapons were made, at the very least.

A good article on the debate about the tapes can be read here: http://www.frontpagemag.com/Articles/ReadArticle.asp?ID=21774.

The Iraqi document release, though, already has a treasure trove of information that needs to be explored:

1) A document dated March 23, 1997 is a letter from the Iraqi Intelligence Service to the author’s superiors that says to remove documentation of correspondence between the IIS and the Atomic Energy and Military-Industry departments, remove “prohibited materials,” hide equipment and documents related to those materials, and make sure that labs are cleaned of any traces of chemical or biological substances. It also says to remove files from computers and go present documents to a committee that will decide if they need to be destroyed.

2) A very detailed document discusses French election law in 1997. Some bloggers have speculated that this is related to Iraqi efforts to influence French politics.

3) A letter from Qusay Hussein orders the transfer of 448 Kuwaiti prisoners from the Gulf War to form human shields around critical government and communication sites. This is from the period right before Operation Iraqi Freedom. This proves that Iraq was in violation of the cease-fire this entire time. Why would Iraq honor the WMD element and not the prisoner element of UN resolutions and agreements?

4) A document describes Directorate 8 of the Iraqi Intelligence Technical Affairs Department: “The Eighth Directorate is responsible for development of materials needed for covert offensive operations. It contains advanced laboratories for testing and production of weapons, poisons and explosives…Most of the work is outside Iraq in coordination with other directorates, focusing on operations of sabotage and assassination.” One office was set up to train “agents for clandestine operations abroad.” It describes “special six-week courses in the use of terror techniques are provided at a camp in Radwaniyhah.”

5) A fax dated June 6, 2001, from the Iraqi ambassador to Manila in the Philippines describes Abu Sayyaf’s latest kidnappings and mentions Iraqi support for the group, which is an Al-Qaeda affiliate, over the past year. Once the kidnappings took the headlines, the Iraqis stopped sending money to the group and dialogue was cut off. Documents also discuss using a Libyan front organization to funnel support for the terrorists.

6) One document from the Al-Quds Army, which consisted of Arabs (mostly Palestinians) working for Saddam Hussein, indicates Al-Quds planned to import “uniforms resembling American forces for the purpose of killing Iraqi citizens because the American forces had killed the innocent sons of the Iraqi people.” In that same list of activities Al-Quds discusses, it also mentions “The Iraqi government will distribute the same leaflets that the American forces are distributing but it will contain anthrax.” The other activities described in the document took place, except apparently, the anthrax attack to be blamed on the U.S. This proves that at the very least, Al-Quds thought the Iraqis possessed small amounts of anthrax.

7) This same document discusses that the Al-Quds Army reported that “There is a rumor that some of the children of ministers and high-ranking commerce people left Iraq for Russia.”

8) Iraqi intelligence documents report that Iraqi intelligence met with Osama Bin Laden on February 19, 1995 as part of an effort by the Iraqis to reach out to four Saudi opposition groups. The documents say Bin Laden requested “joint operations against the forces of infidels in the land of Hijaz [Saudi Arabia].” Bin Laden also requests that Iraq broadcast the sermons of a radical cleric. The document appears to be from 1997 and concludes with “Currently we are working to invigorate this relationship through a new channel in light of his present location.”

9) On other tapes, we get quotes from Saddam’s aides such as: “We have not told them [the UN] the truth about the imported material. Where was the nuclear material transported to? A number of them were transported out of Iraq.”[1] This is from an NBC report after the 2006 Intelligence Summit, but this quote does not appear on the tapes released at the event. To date, the author has not seen this specific transcript but due to NBC’s reputation for reliability, felt it should be mentioned.

10) One document from February 28, 2003, discusses a one-week training course for “Arab Feedaeyeens as Suicide Martyrs.” It discusses providing rifles and grenades to the terrorists, and having Iraqi Special Forces personnel train them in how to use explosives attached to the body, motorcycles, cars and camels.

11) Another document discusses Iraqi Intelligence reporting on the Kurds and mentions an Al-Qaeda presence at Salman Pak, the notorious terrorist training camp that has an old Boeing aircraft, and according to defectors, trains hijackers.

12) Documentation shows that beginning in 1994, the Fedayeen Saddam militia began taking volunteers to be trained in their camps, and trained 7,200 in the first year alone. The documents show that by 1998, “Arab volunteers from Egypt, Palestine, Jordan, ‘the Gulf,’ and Syria” were being trained.” This is according to the Joint Forces Command study that was just released.

13) Documents report that orders were given on May 5, 1999 to the Fedayeen Saddam to start planning to perform “special operations (assassinations/bombings) for the centers and traitor symbols in the fields of (London/Iran/self-ruled areas) and for coordination with the Intelligence service to secure deliveries, accommodations and target guidance.” The Iraqi Intelligence Service was to find 50 “fedayeen martyrs” to train and those who graduated would be assigned to target either London, Iran or the Kurdish areas. Stephen Hayes of The Weekly Standard first reported on this. In his piece, Hayes also quotes the Senate Select Intelligence Committee report which says “The Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) did not have a focused human intelligence (HUMINT) collection strategy targeting Iraq’s links to terrorism until 2002. The CIA had no [redacted] sources on the ground in Iraq reporting specifically on terrorism.”

14) A letter dated September 15, 2001 discusses how an Iraqi intelligence source met with the Taliban consul who warned that “America has proof that the government of Iraq and Osama Bin Laden group have shown cooperation to hit targets within America.” The consul warned that if 9/11 was tied to Osama Bin Laden, then Afghanistan and Iraq may be attacked. The consul discussed how the Iraqis were in contact with the Taliban and Osama Bin Laden.

15) Documents looked at by the Joint Forces Command also show that Iraq was making preparations for a campaign called “Blessed July” which consisted of “martyrdom” operations against targets in the West in 2003. Apparently, Operation Iraqi Freedom pre-empted this wave of terrorist attacks sponsored by Iraq.

16) In 2002, Iraqi intelligence investigated rumors that an Al-Qaeda group had taken up safe haven in Iraq. The investigation found that they had, and even came back with pictures and names, including of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. This proves that the Iraqis knew about their presence, yet did not arrest or deport them.

17) The Fedayeen investigated a rumor about 3,000 Iraqis and Saudis traveling to Afghanistan to fight Western forces.

18) Also obtained are lists of Palestinian terrorists trained in Iraq.

19) A document translated on the Free Republic conservative discussion site has shown that as of 2001 the Iraqis had at least one active “chemical platoon” at Al-Qadisia Air Base and discusses work going on for “specialized vehicles” for the unit (“The Surface Vehicle” and “The Shower Vehicle”).

20) A memo from December 15, 2002 discusses methods Iraqi intelligence was using to thwart UN inspections. It discussed how an Iraqi intelligence agent posed as a UN escort, and how the IIS successfully hid Russian and Turkish scientists from UN inspectors at the Bader site, which Western intelligence suspected was related to WMD.

21) A report from early 1993 lists the names of 100 Arab “martyrs” trained in the fall of 1990.

22) A report from 1993 says that an agreement was reached with Sudan’s National Islamic Front “to use the Islamic Arab elements that had been fighting in Afghanistan and now had no place to go and who are physically present in Sudan, Somalia and Egypt.” The report also discussed how the Iraqis had a relationship with Egyptian Islamic Jihad, which eventually would merge with other groups to form Al-Qaeda.

23) An intelligence report shows how an agreement in late 1990 called for the training, financing and supplying of Egyptian Islamic Jihad “to execute martyr operations” against members of the Coalition. The attacks ended after the ceasefire was signed but Sudan kept working to form an alliance between Iraq and EIJ. The Sudanese sent a representative of EIJ to Iraq, and the Iraqis postponed his visit so that the meeting could be held in secret. The Iraqis were originally hesitant to develop a relationship and limited their support to financing.[2]

24) Another document dated January 23, 2003 is a letter from the assistant-director of the Iraqi Intelligence Service to the director of the service regarding the visit of a French citizen and a German citizen. It says that German Prime Minister Schroeder met with the Chinese Prime Minister who told him “about the information that was obtained by the Chinese intelligence and it says Iraq has moved its mass of destruction weapon to Syria and the German chancellor told him that the German intelligence did not indicate this. And after two days the U.S. state secretary went to Damascus to check on this with the Syrian government that in turn denied the news.” The meeting occurred in early January, 2003.

Middle East

It should also be mentioned that former CIA Director George Tenet’s secret source in the Iraqi government was revealed as Saddam Hussein’s Foreign Minister, Naji Sabri. Contact was made through French intelligence, which has made some analysts suspect of his accuracy. Some people the author has spoken with point to how French intelligence provided the faked documents that were used to discredit the claim that Iraq was seeking uranium from Niger.

Sabri said there was no significant, active biological weapons program, but did say that Iraq had chemical weapons and poison gas stockpiles left over from the Gulf War. He reported to the West that equipment used to produce insecticides was being imported under the Oil-For-Food Program. He also said that Saddam Hussein “desperately” wanted a nuclear bomb but was far away from his goal and needed more than the enriched uranium.[3]

The author would also like to recommend the new book, Cobra II: The Inside Story of the Invasion and Occupation of Iraq by Michael Gordon and Bernard Trainor. This book is extremely detailed and provides great insight as to the internal decision-making (and debating) process and how it affected the progress of Operation Iraqi Freedom. The only issue some readers may have, is that it is critical of the notion that Iraq had WMD or ties to Al-Qaeda, and analyzes how intelligence was misinterpreted from the view of someone who is positive Iraq had no WMD. However, it is healthy to see how someone else could view this intelligence. One of the interesting pieces of information is that Saddam Hussein told his top generals three months before the war began that he destroyed his stockpiles.[4]

The New York Times adequately covered this intelligence, explaining that if Iraq did destroy its WMD, Saddam Hussein successfully tried to make his own generals and other countries believe he had WMD as part of a deterrent strategy. If his own generals believed he had WMD, then the fact that all the Western intelligence agencies thought he had them is excusable and understandable. However, it is clear from Iraqi intelligence documents that the authors of Cobra II are incorrect in their critical view of the notion that Iraq worked with Al-Qaeda, and at the very least, Saddam Hussein had the capability to produce small amounts of biological and chemical weapons with very short notice.

This month, Iraq was faced with the possibility of a civil war. Others claimed it was already a civil war despite the absence of opposing political leaders and militias. A better description would be sectarian violence, which unfortunately, is common in Asia and the Middle East (and is enflamed by insurgents), although to the media in America which is unfamiliar with such conditions it looked like a country tearing itself apart.

The deputy governor of Saladin province, where the Askariya shrine was bombed, publicly stated that a preliminary investigation pointed to the involvement of Iran’s Intelligence Ministry.[5] A leading Sunni politician, Tarek al-Hashemi, did not point to Iranian involvement but warned that a civil war would be in the best interests of Iran.[6]

The author cannot overemphasize the importance of this and how the Bush Administration has truly failed to use it in the war for the hearts and minds. It’s a gift, yet the Administration won’t accept it. If the U.S. uses this information and provides evidence that Iran was involved in the attack, the war for the hearts and minds of the Iraqi people will be won. It will destroy any ounce of sympathy or admiration the Iraqi Shia has for Iran, and as a result, any Iraqi figure being supported by Iran, primarily Moqtada al-Sadr, will become an instant outcast and enemy. Instead of increasing internal tensions and having each sect blame the other, the anger and outrage will be pointed outward to the very country that is trying to tear them apart—Iran.

The nuclear crisis with Iran has continued to escalate, but the Europeans have been more cooperative with the U.S. than they were on the Iraq issue. The U.S. has claimed that Iran has enough uranium gas for ten nuclear weapons (85 tons) and is demanding more inspections, which Iran has refused.[7]

There is a strong belief among some observers of Iran that the U.S. needs to focus on support for terrorism and human rights, and not the nuclear issue. They argue that attacking Iran’s nuke program, rather than the regime, will push the Iranian people into the arms of Ahmadinejad because they support a nuclear program. A new poll that was translated and posted on the Regime Change Iran Blog, if accurate, paints a different picture. It shows that 69% of Iranians do not see the nuclear debate as a matter of national aspiration and pride; 86% say a nuclear program is not worth a military conflict and on another subject, only 11% felt Ahmadinejad was capable of solving Iran’s economic problems.

New evidence also came out that Iran hates the U.S. more than Sunni fundamentalists and wouldn’t hesitate to cooperate with them to attack Americans. The Weekly Standard has published an article discussing how a high-level Taliban official, the former governor of Herat province, testified under interrogation at Guantanomo Bay that Iran secretly agreed to help the Taliban forces in October of 2001.[8]

Latin America

President Bush recently met with Maria Corina Machado, who faces sixteen years in prison in Venezuela after being charged with conspiracy by Chavez’ government in September of 2004. Chavez tries to paint Machado as an agent of the Bush Administration, pointing to how the non-profit group she is vice president of, “Sumate” (or “Join In”), and received $30,000 from the National Endowment for Democracy. This past September she the organization received another $107,000.

Machado’s organization has been a very vocal critic of Chavez, pointing to “electoral irregularities” and teamed up with the five opposition parties to boycott the elections in December 2005 for the National Assembly. The opposition pointed to the fact that the Supreme Court decided who would be on the Election Council, and not the National Assembly (which now consists mostly of Chavez allies). The Human Rights Watch has taken Machado’s side, saying that there are “violations of due process.”

Chavez has also made headlines due to meetings between Venezuelan and Iranian representatives. Recently he stated, “Iran and Venezuela, these two brothers, are and will be together forever. Iran, confronted by the United States, has our solidarity.” He also made headlines when he made an apparently anti-Semitic statement: “The world has enough for all. But it turned out that some minorities, descendants of those who crucified Christ, descendants of those who threw Bolivar out of here and also crucified him in their own way in Santa Marta, there in Colombia, a minority took the world’s riches for themselves.” Rabbi Marvin Heir of the Simon Wiesenthal Center has demanded an apology from Chavez.

Pro-Marxist revolutionary and pro-terrorist activity by Castro and Chavez has not ended. Kenneth Rjock reported on recent meetings between Cuban intelligence and leftist militants and terrorists in Venezuela. The meetings were attended by a Cuban general, Arab militants operating out of Isla Margarita (which, he said, are financially connected to Hezbollah and Al-Qaeda), FARC and ELN Colombian terrorists, FALN terrorists from Puerto Rico, and a radical leftist group from Trinidad.

Rjock reported on how a Syrian terrorist going by the name “Kamal” had entered the triple-border area, acquired Venezuela identity documents upon arrival, and then flew to New York to participate in a plot to bomb Madison Square Garden and an automobile tunnel under the Hudson River. Kamal was funded by two Venezuelan Arabs, Khaled Khalil and Majed Khalil, who had made a living off of exporting computers out of Miami. Their American visas are now revoked. An associate of the Khalils gave $200,000 to Kamal to conduct surveillance for the plot. Rjock also claimed that when foreign agents enter Margarita, Arab residents sometimes take up temporary residence in Cuba. Margarita is also where Castro secretly meets with Chavez.[9]

Rjock has also reported on a secret agreement made between Iran and Venezuela. The Iranians agreed to sell long-range missile to Chavez that would be transported on Venezuelan-flagged vessels traveling to Cuba. If true, this may be an indication that Cuba is interested in obtaining Iranian technology for ballistic missiles as well.[10] The Iranian Revolutionary Guards commander has also stated that Chavez asked for assistance from the Iranians in creating a militia on the Basij model in Venezuela. Iran, he said, has begun instructing a Venezuelan army commander on how to accomplish this.[11]

Europe is split on the threat from Chavez, even though they are mostly united in opposing Castro, which shows that much of the West doesn’t fully grasp who Chavez is or what is goal is. Spain, led by a Socialist who is no friend of the U.S., has a state-owned shipyard named Navantia which is selling eight patrol boats to Chavez, and the French have agreed to sell the weapons for the boats.

Chavez’ undiplomatic manner, though, is winning us friends. Chavez, who constantly says the U.S. is planning an invasion, recently claimed that the Americans would cross over from Curacao, which is Dutch territory 40 kilometers off of Venezuela’s coast. This caused fear in the Netherlands that Chavez could use the accusation to launch a pre-emptive assault on the island. It caused such uproar that a member of the Dutch parliament, Zsolt Szabo called for the government to beef up the defenses of the island. The Defense Minister rules out the possibility of a Venezuelan assault, but did say that Chavez “casts big eyes on the scraps by the coast of Venezuela which form part of the Netherlands Kingdom.” Some critics say that the more hawkish politicians in the Netherlands are using the issue to build support and put a focus on national security.

Russia

Documents found in Iraq were released this month that shook the foundation of the belief that Russia is a friend of the United States. Documentation shows that a Russian military-intelligence unit operated in Iraq up through the fall of Baghdad[12] and that Russia passed details about the U.S. war plan to Iraq. The Russian ambassador to Iraq, Vladimir Titorenko, who was acting suspiciously during the war in Iraq (http://www.frontpagemag.com/Articles/ReadArticle.asp?ID=21489), passed details about the size of American forces, their locations, descriptions of the forces, and other detailed information to Iraq. Titorenko even gave the locations of two U.S. Special Forces units.

This is huge news, of course. The author believes more information about Russia’s back-stabbing will come to light in these documents. However, this is not the most troubling revelation. The Russians, according to the documents, received the information from sources inside CENTCOM. There needs to be an immediate investigation into who is passing classified information to the Russians!