WORLD THREATS.COM
Buy Ryan Mauro's book,
"Death to America:
The Unreported Battle of Iraq"
for a reduced price of $15!
Email us about the
offer!
| Ryan Mauro's WORLD THREATS.COM |
|
|
|
Monthly Analysis: September
2006
By Ryan
Mauro
Iraqi
Document Release
Letters labeled top-secret were
released that reveal orders from the Iraqi Defense Ministry to conceal weapons
and devices in hidden shelters for later use. Some analysts have viewed this
operation described in the documents as WMD-related, but most likely it was
merely the beginning of the activation of plans to foment an
insurgency.
In
2000, an Iraqi intelligence officer reported to his government that he had a
“trusted source” in the Associated Press that gave the regime important
information as UNMOVIC was being established
Middle East
Considerable political skirmishing
has occurred with regard to Iraq this month. A new US Senate Intelligence
Committee report dismissed allegations of cooperation between Iraq and Al-Qaeda.
The Administration has been very ineffective in countering this aspect of the
report. The report not only addresses a significant quantity of documents,
defector testimony, and other evidence demonstrating such ties, but it is also
politically motivated.
If you read the “Minority Views”
portion of the report, you notice that the Republican politicians on the
committee dismiss the report and explain how the Democrats, and two Republicans
who are critical of the war, used their majority status on the committee to
politicize the intelligence.
Throughout the report, for
example, the testimony of high-level Iraqis including Saddam Hussein, who have
no incentive to admit their involvement in terrorist activity, is taken as fact.
The deputy prime minister of Iraq responded to the report by saying he knew that
Iraq was working with Al-Qaeda. He even gave an example where he says Ansar
al-Islam, an Al-Qaeda affiliate, tried to kill him in 2001. The plot, he said,
was partly funded and directed by Iraq.[i]
The politically-motivated
leaking of portions of the NIE was another major issue. Since they still
stubbornly insist that Iraq did not sponsor terrorism, the anti-war contingent
claimed the report indicated that the war in Iraq has created more terrorists
than it has eliminated. However, this is not entirely
true.
The NIE does state that the war
in Iraq has become a recruiting device for terrorists, and indicates it is
responsible for higher levels of anti-Americanism. No one can contest that the
war in Iraq was opposed by the majority in the Muslim world. However, another
key reason for continued ideological support for the insurgency is the lack of
democracy and human rights in the region.
Not only does the NIE prove that
leaving Iraq now would be a disaster, in point of fact, the report amply
supports the contention that Saddam Hussein and his regime had to be removed
from power.
If the US’s primary means with
which to defeat radical Islamic ideology is to advance democracy in the region,
then how else can such a task be accomplished without removing dictatorial
regimes that won’t embrace freedom, even if it results in a temporary spike in
anger against US policy?
The argument against action in
Iraq therefore is a call for a return to the status quo—the status quo that,
according to the NIE, has resulted in the growth of terrorism and radical
Islam.
Abu Ayyub al-Masri, the current
head of Al-Qaeda in Iraq, also offered a rebuttal to those claiming that
involvement in Iraq today is useless because it creates more terrorists than it
eliminates. In late September, he issued an audio tape which stated that over
4,000 foreign fighters had been killed in Iraq.[ii] There is no way
to know how many terrorists the US “created” by commencing Operation Iraqi
Freedom, but the fact that the head of Al-Qaeda in Iraq admits 4,000 terrorists
have been killed should be a talking point for every politician that supported
the war.
Another significant issue was a
poll released by the University of Maryland that claims that 60% of the Iraqis
support attacks on American soldiers. The author of this analysis is not an
expert on poling methodology, so he cannot dissect its credibility, however, it
should be noted that this same polling group, which consists of Democrats who
opposed the war, is the same group that previously released a poll alleging to
prove that Fox News viewers have factually incorrect views about foreign policy.
However, these “facts” were based on opinions and interpretation of
evidence.
For example, one “fact” that the
Fox News viewers purportedly believed “incorrectly” was that WMD had been found
in Iraq, and that Hussein had been cooperating with bin Laden. As detailed
herein, such a poling result cannot be considered “fact” because it depends on
the viewers’ interpretation of what constitutes WMD. To be sure, WMD components
and even weapons have been found, but stockpiles of chemical and biological
weapons have not been discovered.
However, even if we assume that
the poll is accurate, it is hardly “proof” that the Coalition effort in Iraq has
been a complete failure and the Iraqis are unanimously opposed to the presence
of Coalition forces. The poll indicates immense support for a US role in
reconstruction, and the training of the Iraqi security forces. There is very
high confidence in the Iraqi security forces and a low confidence in the US
military. If we assume the poll is accurate, this may mean that the Iraqis do
not want the US assuming the lead role in anti-insurgency operations, and view
such activity as that of an occupier, but do favor US cooperation as the Iraqis
take control of their own country.
The poll also indicated that 94%
of Iraqis had an unfavorable view of Al-Qaeda, including 77% of Sunnis. Nouri
al-Maliki and Ayatollah Sistani continue to garner tremendous support, and Syria
and Iran suffer from poor opinions, except in the south, where Iran’s role is
viewed positively by a very slight majority.
No poll has ever substantiated
the notion that Iraqis want Saddam Hussein back in power, or favor an Islamic
theocracy. Despite growing Iraqi anger and frustration with Coalition forces, as
of right now, this mood can not be interpreted as staunch hostility to the
ideals of democracy, or earnest support for civil war. Indeed, no poll has ever
indicated that Iraqis desire a civil war. Quite the contrary, most are
optimistic about Iraq remaining one unified state.
Sen. Sam Brownback, a likely
Republican candidate for president in 2008, must be applauded for introducing
the Iran Human Rights Act. The proposed legislation would establish a State
Department envoy for human rights and democracy in Iran, reform American
broadcasts into Iran, and provide additional support to groups seeking to regime
change in Iran. This is the sort of action that must be taken right now in order
to win in Iraq and win the War on Terrorism as a whole.
Asia
At the
same time Musharraf was attempting to curry favor in the West, domestically he
was trying to avoid being the next victim of Pakistan-based anti-Americanism. He
claimed in his book and in his interviews that his cooperation with the United
States was not due to an ideological alliance, but because Richard Armitage had
threatened Pakistan with attack. He claims he even “war gamed” against the U.S.
and realized Pakistan would lose, so he had to “submit”. It is quite interesting
to observe Musharraf attempting to pander to both sides.