Update on Pre-War Intelligence

The New Media Journal published an article wherein John Loftus, president of the International Intelligence Summit, announces that, at his Summit, in the first week of March, there will be new evidence that Iraq had an advanced nuclear program.  This is the same Summit that released the “Saddam tapes” last year.

Loftus claims that Saddam Hussein had an extremely active nuclear program as of late 2002 and early 2003, which included operating four incredibly expensive underwater nuclear storage and production facilities under the Euphrates river during the final six months of 2002.  In 2003, Iraqi informants led American investigators to the four sites and, according to their medical files, the agents involved, became ill due to radiation exposure.  Word of the underwater nuclear storage and production facility discovery never reached the high-level figures in Washington. The intelligence on this discovery was lost when the computer database was accidentally erased during the American evacuation from Saudi Arabia.

Middle East

In a positive sign for Iraq, the city of Ramadi, the capitol of Anbar province, seems to have exchanged its role as a Sunni insurgent hotbed, into an example of success.  In March 2006, there were insufficient Iraqi police officers to fill a pickup truck.  Since then, the US has recruited 50 Sunni Sheikhs into “The Awakening” movement and, in December and January 2007, 800 law enforcement personnel were recruited.

The sectarian violence has greatly diminished.  The sheikhs who are participating in the anti-insurgent efforts oppose US presence, but they have recognized that the insurgents are the greater enemy.  They even play a role in vetting the forces for possible enemy infiltration by providing local tribal leaders and family members to vouch for the recruits during the background checks. ¹   26 of 31 tribes in Ramadi are now said to be combating the insurgency in cooperation with U.S. and Iraqi forces.

Amir Taheri, as always, has written some superb articles, with keen insights into the sectarian violence in Iraq.  In early February, he wrote an article arguing that the sectarian violence in Iraq did not have grassroots support, noting that not a single one of the bombers of the holy Shiite Golden Mosque in Samarra was an Iraqi.  He described that, in Anbar Province, several pockets of Shiite Iraqis were protected by the local tribes from insurgents, and that there were even cases where Sunni tribes fought Al-Qaeda, and like-minded terrorists, in order to stop them from massacring the local Shiite minority. Taheri noted further that most of the tribes include both Sunni and Shiite Iraqis, and that many Iraqi families are often mixed, containing members of both sects.

However, Sunni/Shiite cooperation in combating the insurgents is not the only accomplishment in the region. The radical terrorist group that tried to assassinate Ayatollah al-Sistani, and commit a massacre in Najaf, also included both Sunnis and Shiites. ²

This month, a new moderate political alliance has emerged in Iraq.  Former Prime Minister Iyad Allawi’s group, Al-Iraqiyya, has formed an alliance with most of the Sunni members of parliament. This means Allawi’s group will control 80 of the 275 seats in parliament. ³

The University of Michigan’s Institute for Social Research has released a poll, comparing 2004 to 2006, which indicates very positive trends in Iraq.  The number of Iraqis supporting Iraq becoming an “Islamic state” fell from 30% to 22%.  The percentage of those who support separation of church (or mosque) and state rose from 27% to 41%.  In Baghdad, the number of Iraqis who place their national identity above their Islamic identity doubled to 60%.  Finally, 65% said it was “very important” for Iraq to become a democracy, up from 59%.

So far, it appears that the new security strategy in Baghdad is working, although that may be because the insurgents and militia members are laying low until the US leaves.  There has been a significant reduction in sectarian violence, and the number of Iraqi civilians killed in Baghdad has fallen sharply; by at least four-fifths. ⁴  The overall level of sectarian violence has decreased by 80%. ⁵

There is a superb article in The Los Angeles Times, which discusses the 1964 book, “Counter-Insurgency Warfare: Theory and Practice,” by Max Boot.  In the book, Galula concludes that, in a war involving an insurgency, whichever side provides the best protection for the population, will most likely win.  Protecting the population is the first step to winning, as nothing else, including government reforms, can be done while the population is being attacked by insurgents.

Boot also notes that military analysts Bing West and Eliot Cohen wrote that eight of ten Iraqi detainees have been set free.  Additionally, as a comparison, one in 75 American males is incarcerated whereas, in Iraq, the ratio is only 1 in 450, despite the fact that Iraq is so much more violent.  Iraq is currently detaining 28,000 individuals, which sounds like a lot, but Texas alone is currently incarcerating 170,000, even though Iraq is 50 times more violent. ⁶

 In late January, five American soldiers were kidnapped in a very sophisticated operation, and then executed.  A secret military report stated that “Iranian agents” may have been behind the operation, and stated that the Revolutionary Guards were providing intelligence to Shiite extremists regarding the US and Iraqi forces.⁷  It seems unlikely that it is a coincidence that five American soldiers were kidnapped almost immediately after American forces arrested five Iranian officials.

It has become quite clear that Iranians have successfully infiltrated the Iraqi government.  Revolutionary Guard operatives were captured at the compound of the leader of the SCIRI political party, and even the son of al-Hakim has been detained.  Additionally, Jamal Jafaar Mohammed, who is in the Iraqi parliament as part of al-Maliki’s governing coalition, is said to have had a role in the hijacking of a Kuwaiti airliner in 1984 and of attempting to assassinate a Kuwaiti prince.  He is tied to the Iranian government and also had a role in the 1983 bombings of the U.S. and French embassies in Lebanon.⁸  He is believed to be hiding in Iran.  US forces also arrested the Minister of Health for assisting radical Shiite militias.

Iranian support for insurgents in Iraq goes beyond shipment of IEDs.  Over 100 Austrian sniper rifles that can penetrate body armor, which were sold to Iran last year by Austria, have been found in the hands of insurgents. ⁹

There is still considerable debate regarding Iranian involvement in Iraq.  It appears that the CIA and State Department don’t believe that Iran is the major force behind the insurgency, clinging to the notion that stability in Iraq benefits Iran and that, generally, terrorism isn’t state-sponsored.  One can only surmise whether an intellectual desire to engage Iran is influencing these assessments, or whether the agencies are scarred from the Iraq experience and too hesitant to place blame at the foot of a foreign power.

Eli Lake, an excellent reporter at The New York Sun, is reporting that four of the 16 intelligence agencies that contribute to the National Intelligence Estimate want to provide a dissenting section about Iran.  The four intelligence agencies are the Treasury Department’s Office of Intelligence and Analysis, the National Geospatial Intelligence Agency, and the military-intelligence arms of the Army and of the Marines. These agencies assert that Ba’athist elements of the insurgency have allowed Al-Qaeda, led by Abu Ayyab al-Masri, into Iraq to take the leadership mantle.

The NSA, CIA and State Department among others, argue that the majority of the insurgency is still led by Ba’athists and Sunni nationalists.  Another major debate is the role Iran is playing in the Sunni element of the insurgency. ¹⁰            

Islamic Jihad sources have told a Kuwaiti newspaper that Saad bin Laden, who has been hiding in Iran, is now in the Ein al-Hilweh refugee camp in Lebanon with the protection of the Usbat al-Ansar terrorist group.  The group is led by a Palestinina Abu Mahjun.  The report states Saad bin Laden originally left Afghanistan with 20 other Al-Qaeda leaders and entered Iran, and more recently traveled through Iraq to Lebanon with the assistance of smugglers. ¹¹

The increased focus on Iranian support for the insurgency must not come at the expense of pressure on Syria.  An Iraqi government spokesperson named Ali al-Dabbagh reported that half of the terrorists who commit attacks in Iraq come from Syria. ¹²

Farid Ghadry, president of the Reform Party of Syria, has published a fine article providing details on how Syria sponsors terrorists and insurgents in Iraq.  Syria’s “Force 2800” is used to collaborate with Hezbollah in assisting radical Shiite militias.  Assistance to Sunni militants, including Al-Qaeda, takes place at four training camps.

One camp is in Latakia province, in northern Syria, and is operated by former Iraqi Major-General named Majid Sulayman.  Another camp is located 40 kilometers west of Qamishli, in northeast Syria, and is operated by former Iraqi major-general Qays al-Adhami. The third, the al-Shaybani camp, is 30 kilometers south of Damascus. The fourth, the al-Ikhals camp, is in the Qaysun Mountains near Damascus.  Ghadry also reported that Al-Qaeda forces fighting in Iraq are moving from Syria into Palestinian refugee camps in Beirut and northern Lebanon. ¹³

It appears as if the Arab states are forming an anti-Iranian bloc. Their state-controlled media is becoming more and more hostile toward Iran. There was an interesting leak to the Egyptian paper, Al-Ahram in late January, which stated that Iranian intelligence was behind the assassination of the Egyptian ambassador to Iraq in 2005 in order to prevent Egypt from gaining influence.¹⁴ It seems likely this was a calculated leak, although the paper did not provide any evidence for the accusation.

          Pakistan appears to be attempting to develop an anti-Iran alliance as well.  The Pakistani foreign minister convened a high-level meeting with his counterparts in Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, Turkey, Indonesia, and Malaysia.  Syria, Iran’s close ally, was not invited. ¹⁵

          The US may also be supporting the “civilian” nuclear programs of moderate Arab states as a way of countering Iran.  A new nuclear cooperation agreement has been reached between the US and Algeria, but according to the US ambassador, Algeria’s nuclear program will be subject to IAEA safeguards. ¹⁶

Iranian activity is expanding in the Israeli/Palestinian theater.  Security forces loyal to Fatah reportedly captured an Iranian general and six others at a Hamas-controlled university, where they operated a bomb factory. ¹⁷

The intelligence agency Stratfor released a blockbuster report this month.  Iran reported that Ardeshir Hassanpour, a top nuclear scientist, had died.  However, Stratfor reported that sources close to Israeli intelligence reported to them that the Israeli Mossad was behind the assassination.  Iran, on the other hand, claims exposure to radiation caused his death. Stratfor noted that in the 1980s, at least three Iraqi nuclear scientists died mysteriously when their nuclear program was becoming advanced. ¹⁸

Finally, Iran expert Kenneth Timmerman has debunked the notion that an alleged “grand bargain deal” floated by Iran in 2003 was rejected by the Bush Administration.  Timmerman notes that the person who revealed the purported arrangement to the media is Flynt Leverett, a former National Security Council staffer, who left his government job to work on the Kerry campaign.  The Iranian official who floated the deal, Sadeq Kharrazi, was arrested soon after delivering his letter for having “unauthorized contacts” with the United States.  Therefore, the deal did not have the consent of the Iranian regime.

Asia

Although it wasn’t reported much by the media, the Bush Administration plans to increase troop levels in Afghanistan by 3,000. This is important because the Taliban and Al-Qaeda are regaining strength.

Reportedly, senior al-Qaeda leaders have re-established “significant control” over their worldwide network, although this author believes that this control was not as diminished as most have assumed.  In 2006, al-Qaeda built new terrorist training camps in North Waziristan, in Pakistan, where groups of 10-20 are trained at a time.  The State Department is concerned that increased pressure on President Musharraf to take action against al-Qaeda may destabilize his government. ¹⁹

British newspapers continue to report on Iran’s role in the violence in Afghanistan.  Iranian intelligence is providing training and money to Taliban fighters, and allows terrorists to cross into their territory from Iraq on the way to Afghanistan.  The reports also note that Iranian support is dwarfed by Pakistani support. ²⁰

Russian defense minister Sergei Ivanov announced that Russia is planning a major military buildup.  Seventeen new ballistic missiles would be made this year, when normally it would be about four per year.  The new modernization program also calls for 34 new silo-based Topol-M missiles and 50 mobile launchers.  There are also plans for new nuclear submarines and possibly aircraft carriers.  ²¹

Latin America

Venezuela has announced plans to build the largest submarine fleet in the region in order to defend itself against the United States.  Chavez also plans additional purchases of small arms, fighter jets, and possibly air defense missiles in a $3.4 billion arms deal with Russia.  Chavez is also negotiating the purchase of a $290 million air defense system and plans to spend $3 billion to develop 9 diesel-electric submarines by 2012. ²²

In a surprising revelation, the former head of Cuba’s military medical services is warning that Cuba has a secret biological weapons program.  According to Roberto Ortega, Cuba has stocks of plague, botulism, and yellow fever at an underground lab near Havana.  Ortega ran the biological weapons program from 1984 to 1994, and defected in 2003.  He claims that he told the CIA about the site two years ago, and was expecting the government to demand international inspections of the lab, but this has not happened.  Frustrated, he decided to go public with the information. ²³

[1] Washington Post, January 27, 2007.

[2] New York Post, February 2, 2007.

[3] Al-Rafidayn, February 27, 2007.

[4] Associated Press, February 16, 2007.

[5] Badr News Net, February 18, 2007.

[6] Los Angeles Times, February 7, 2007.

[7] ABC News, January 30, 2007.

[8] CNN, February 6, 2007.

[9] Telegraph, February 13, 2007.

[10] Eli Lake, New York Sun, February 5, 2007.

[11] Al-Rai (Kuwait), February 9, 2007.

[12] Agence France Presse, February 3, 2007.

[13] Washington Times, February 20, 2007.

[14] Al-Sharq Al-Awsat, January 29, 2007.

[15] Al-Quds Al-Arabi, February 22, 2007.

[16] LA Tribune, February 10, 2007.

[17] New York Post, February 3, 2007.

[18] Stratfor, February 2, 2007.

[19] New York Times, February 18, 2007.

[20] Guardian, February 10, 2007.

[21] The Guardian, February 8, 2007.

[22] Washington Times, February 19, 2007.

[23] Miami Herald, February 28, 2007.