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Ryan Mauro's
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Monthly Analysis July-August 2007 By Ryan Mauro TDCAnalyst@aol.com Islamic World Opinion
A Pew poll has shown that radical ideologies in the Muslim world, as a whole, are decreasing. Results include: * Support for Bin Laden is decreasing. In Jordan, those with confidence in him as a world leader, fell 36 percentage points since 2003, and is now at 20%. In Indonesia, it fell from 59 to 41%; in Lebanon, 20% to 1%; in Pakistan, 46% to 38%; and in Palestine, support fell 15 percentage points, but 57% still support him. * Muslim support for suicide attacks on non-military targets has also fallen. In Lebanon, those feeling it is justified fell to 34% from 74%. In Pakistan, only 9% say they are justified, down from 41% in 2004. 70% of Palestinians felt suicide bombings were always or sometimes justified.1 Middle East
The U.S. continues to assemble and arm Sunni tribes in central Iraq to help fight Al-Qaeda and other insurgents. The newest area for such a tribal alliance to be implemented is in Salahaddin province, where 25 tribes (both Sunni and Shiite) have allied with the Coalition to fight the Mehdi Army and Al-Qaeda. They were formed around Taji, 12 miles north of Baghdad. The affect of courting the local tribal leaders has been tremendous. An estimated 25,000 Iraqis have turned away from the insurgency and allied with Coalition forces and the Iraqi government. The U.S. strategy in courting Sunni tribes is currently being expanded to win over local Shiite leaders that oppose the extremist militias.2 Eli Lake of The New York Sun reported in July that the Bush Administration was going to declare the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps and the Qods Force a terrorist organization.3 The Administration did, in fact, make just such an announcement, and it now has significant leverage in making the case that Iran supports terrorists, and can increase the pressure on foreign countries to seize assets connected to the IRGC. This move is welcomed by this author, as Iran continues its terrorist war primarily aimed against the U.S. in Iraq, and elsewhere. For example, in mid-July, U.S. forces seized a field of fifty Iranian-made rocket launchers, all pointed in the direction of a U.S. Army base.4 Others, like expert Amir Taheri, disagree, and feel that sanctions should be limited to the Qods Force of the IRGC, rather than the IRGC, as a whole, because Iranians frequently join the IRGC as a means to a better life, materially. However, others respond that the IRGC, as a whole, forms the backbone of the Iranian regime. According to recent intelligence reports, there are two known Al-Qaeda leadership councils. One is in the border areas between Afghanistan and Pakistan, and the other is in eastern Iran, where dozens of Al-Qaeda leaders meet regularly. While Osama Bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri are believed to usually reside in the tribal border areas, the other leaders, primarily Seif al-Adel, are in Iran and work with the commander of the Revolutionary Guards’ Qods Force. Suleiman Abu Ghaith and Saad Bin Laden, Osama’s oldest son, are also in Iran. There are a few Al-Qaeda bases in Iran. One is at a military base near Tehran, called Lavizan. There are also bases at Chalous, a northern suburb of Tehran; Mashhad, a holy city; and Zabul, which lies on the border with Afghanistan. Over the past year, Coalition forces have intercepted at least ten couriers carrying instructions from Al-Qaeda leaders living in Iran.5 New polls by Terror-Free Tomorrow and the Center for the Promotion of Democracy and Human Rights indicate that the Iranian people want regime change. The author has often called for supporting the Iranian democrats to this end, and hopefully this poll will cause Washington to see the opportunity at hand. The poll results include the following statistics: * 92% believe that Iran is not currently playing a positive role in Iraq. * Two-thirds of Iranians would support a Velvet Revolution in Iran. * 79% of Iranians want democracy; only 11% strongly oppose a system where all the leaders are elected. * 78% of Iranians favor a civilian nuclear program; 46% favor producing a nuclear bomb and 47% oppose it. * 58% of Iranians would support a foreign military action aimed at regime change. * 56% oppose Iran’s military assistance to Hamas. * 70% do not advocate the destruction of Israel. Considering the poll was conducted via telephone, these statistics are remarkable. It is highly likely that the numbers of Iranians who are moderate and favor internal regime change is even higher, as Iranians have grown accustomed to monitoring what they say over the telephone due to the regime’s repression of internal dissent. Analyzing statements by Iranian and Syrian leaders, and their state press, it would appear the regimes seem certain that a war with Israel, and/or, the US is inevitable and likely to occur this year. Iran is anticipating aerial strikes on its nuclear facilities. According to a report in one Arab newspaper, the Iranians have, through private channels, warned that 600 Israeli targets are within range of their missiles, and will be destroyed if an attack occurs on either Iran, or its ally, Syria. 6 Syria continues its attempts to modernize its armed forces with assistance from Iran and Russia. According to the Arabic newspaper Al-Sharq Al-Awsat, the Iranians have reportedly agreed to spend $1 billion to help Syria procure advanced weapons and assistance with nuclear research and chemical weapons. Also, the Syrians will reportedly purchase Russian Mig-31 fighter planes, Sukhoi-24 attack aircraft, helicopters and T-72 tanks. The Iranians will construct a factory for medium-range missile production and North Korea and Belarus will assist in training the Syrian naval and air forces.7 More evidence was revealed this month that Syria was using terrorist front groups, connected to Al-Qaeda, to destabilize Lebanon. The most senior captive of the Fatah al-Islam group, Ahmad Mar’I has admitted working with Syrian intelligence.8 There was an interesting, small spat between Hamas and Al-Qaeda this month. Both are Sunni jihadists, which spawned from Muslim Brotherhood, so it’s unlikely there is a huge divide between the two sides. Ayman al-Zawahiri criticized Hamas, mainly for their participation in democratic elections and cease-fires, although Hamas only does so for temporary gains. Hamas political bureau chief Khaled Mash’al responded by saying Hamas would not respond to his criticism, and called on Zawahiri to support Hamas and praised him for sacrificing martyrs. The political bureau chief also added that Hamas would not make things worse for anyone who was against the Israelis and Americans, quickly rebutting any hope of using Hamas to isolate Al-Qaeda.9 The chairman for the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee is among those predicting a war in the Middle East in the coming months. The prediction was originally for summer, but Debkafile, a web site with ties to Israeli intelligence, is now projecting a November timeline. He has reported that Hamas has imported 20 tons of explosives via Rifiah. Stella anti-aircraft missiles have also been smuggled in as the Egyptian government looks the other way. He also reported that, in recent weeks, at least 400 members of Hamas had traveled to Iran for training.10 Tensions greatly increased between Bahrain and Iran this month as an advisor to Khamenei claimed that Bahrain was a province of Iran and should be re-united. Although Iranian officials have since claimed that they want good relations with Bahrain, this statement has not been withdrawn, nor has an apology been issued.11 Africa
An official Sudanese document published in the Sudan Tribune proves that the government of Sudan has renewed their support for Al-Qaeda. In the document, dated April 27, 2004, Presidential advisor, Majzoub al-Khalifa, ordered that foreign fighters, connected to Osama bin Laden from 1994, be allowed to resume their activity. The Sudanese government used these fighters to attack African Union troops in Darfur. The document also ordered that all property, confiscated from 1996, on, be returned to the foreign fighters and further, that their bank accounts be unfrozen. Western intelligence sources also noted that Syria tested chemical weapons on civilian villages in rebel-held territories.12 Asia
More recent reporting continues to focus on China’s contribution to the insurgencies in Afghanistan and Iraq. The Weekly Standard is reporting that the Iranian Revolutionary Guards are facilitating the transport, into Iraq, of thousands of explosives and small arms that originated from government-owned factories in China. Furthermore, the Standard reported that “vast amounts” of Chinese IED components, ammunition, RPGs, and sniper rifles are being supplied the insurgency in Iraq. It would appear that U.S. intelligence has listened in on Iranian orders for Chinese weapons. The report indicated that Iran has placed “urgent” orders lately, and the buyers requested that the serial numbers on the weapons be removed. The Chinese suppliers then suggested using cargo aircraft so that the weapons could not as easily be intercepted. The report also indicated that the Chinese sniper rifles are almost exact copies of Austrian rifles, which is why Coalition forces denied seizing Austrian weapons.13 Rumors appeared in the press in August that Pakistani President Musharraf was going to declare a national emergency, only to decide against it after a phone call from Condi Rice. Many analysts are concerned that a strong U.S. push towards democracy in Pakistan would bring anti-American, pro-Taliban Islamists to power. Others point to the fact that the National Alliance, a bloc of secular parties, holds the majority in the parliament. There is considerable debate in foreign policy circles and even in the presidential race as to how to handle the presence of Taliban and Al-Qaeda militants in Pakistan. According to a report in The Asia Times, U.S. intelligence identified 29 Taliban bases and presented the Pakistani government with their coordinates. In advance of a planned military offensive in North and South Waziristan, 28 were dismantled by the militants. There has been no indication regarding whether this was the result of a tip from within the Pakistani government, therefore incriminating Musharraf, or from the ISI intelligence service, well-known to include a sizeable number of Taliban sympathizers. Latin America
The creation of an anti-American bloc across several continents continues, yet does not appear to be drawing the attention of the mainstream media. Russia and China, who held joint military exercises in August, related to long-range military deployments, are becoming closer allies, and are the most consistent supporters of rogue nations like Iran, Syria, North Korea, and Venezuela. While some pundits focus on the re-emergence of the Russian “Bear,” few are noting the re-emergence of a bloc allied to Russia, particularly in Latin America, and the Middle East. Some analysts note that Chavez is working on making Latin America as socialist and anti-American as possible and further concerned over his ties to Iran. President Daniel Ortega of Nicaragua has also begun creating an alliance with Iran and Venezuela and has called the United States “a terrorist nation.” [1] San Francisco Gate, July 24, 2007. [2] Chicago Sun Times, August 6, 2007. [3] New York Sun, July 13, 2007. [4] Jerusalem Post, July 15, 2007. [5] New York Sun, July 17, 2007. [6] Al-Watan, July 15, 2007. [7] Ha’aretz, July 21, 2007. [8] Al-Sharq Al-Awsat, July 18, 2007. [9] Al-Quds al-Arabi, July 13, 2007. Translated by MEMRI. [10] Israel National News, July 22, 2007. [11] WorldTribune.com, July 13, 2007. [12] WorldTribune.com, August 21, 2007. [13] Weekly Standard, August 13, 2007.
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