Monthly Analysis: June 2006

By: RYAN MAURO (TDCAnalyst@aol.com)

Iraq Document Release

Documents found in Iraq released by the Pentagon continue to be translated by Arabic volunteers on the Internet. Among the findings are:

1) A September 15, 2002 memo from a Fedayeen General to Uday Hussein discussing the location of a hidden, buried container of chemicals in Fallujah originally concealed there by Hussein Kamel.

2) Ray Robison, a former Iraq Survey Group employee, reviewed documents that indicate that, in 1999, a meeting occurred between Taha Yasin Ramadan, the vice president of Iraq, and Fazlur Rahman, a Pakistani cleric close to Mullah Omar. During the meeting, Ramadan states he agrees with Osama Bin Laden’s call for war against America. Rahman delivers a message from Mullah Omar requesting that Iraq serve as the intermediary to Russia. The meeting also discusses Iraqi contact with Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, the leader of a faction in Afghanistan that later allied with Al-Qaeda. Iraq appeared to be acting as an intermediary between the Taliban and Hekmatyar.

3) A document from 1999 indicates that the Iraqis were hiding a “neutron source device” that was banned by the UN.

4) Documents from 2000 and 2002 indicate that Iraq had finalized plans to produce the precursor chemicals used to make sarin and tabun. This was an operation that is banned by the UN.

5) Frank Gaffney testified to the House Armed Services Committee at the end of June. He mentioned a point that I’ve noted before, but I feel it needs to be reiterated repeatedly. The reports of the Iraq Survey Group found that the Iraqi regime had plans to place sulfur mustard and sarin in “perfume sprayers and medicine bottles which they would ship to the United States and Europe.” Is that not a smoking gun?

It should also be noted that a reader sent the author an article from US News & World Report, dated October 25, 1999. In the article, on page 42, a statement corroborates the theory regarding Russian involvement in the relocation of Saddam’s WMD out of Iraq.

The report stated that two Russian “civilian agricultural advisors”, who are experts in third generation nerve agents, were working at an Iraqi pesticide plant in the al-Saklawiyah region of al-Anbar province. They had previously worked under a deputy commander for the Russian Army Chemical Corps.

Another noteworthy item: In her column, Melanie Morgan stated that she had spoken to Abdul-Qader Jassim, now the Iraqi defense minister, in July of 2005 and that he told to her he believed Iraq had WMD, and had trained and funded terrorists.

Big news was made when a report was declassified from the National Guard Intelligence Center, which revealed that since 2003, Coalition forces discovered approximately 500 munitions containing sarin and mustard, made prior to 1991. There has been a lot of disinformation about this release:

1) The claim that the munitions are not useable and these “aren’t the weapons we went to war for” come from an anonymous “senior Defense Department official” who won’t go on the record. After a newspaper reported the quote, it was simply regarded as fact by the majority of the media; no one questioned the agenda of this official or bothered to verify the veracity of his statement. These ARE the weapons for which the US went to war! The US has repeatedly cited 550 artillery shells containing chemical weapons.

2) The claim that the munitions aren’t useable is deceiving. The intelligence report confirmed the munitions were hazardous and potentially lethal. Quite the contrary to the claim of the “senior Defense Department official”, a March 2003 UN report indicated that “the sulfur mustard contained in artillery shells that had been stored for 12 years, had been found by UNMOVIC to still be of high purity…”

3) In 1997 and 1998, UN inspectors found a dozen artillery shells with mustard in them. They also were produced before the Gulf War and were found to be of 94-97% purity.

Middle East

Iran’s leadership continued their semi-covert war against the US, and their preparations for escalation. The government campaign to recruit “martyrs” claims it has registered over 55,000 volunteers, including 100 from the Revolutionary Guards, who proclaimed their intensions to attack American interests. In Iraq, fifty Iranians were arrested in Baqubah for participating in a string of kidnappings and murders.

As expected, the nuclear issue continued unabated, with no change and no reason for Iran to change it. Iranian officials are now discussing “nuclear fusion” research, which is almost certainly for thermonuclear weapons since this technology has no known application for domestic energy applications. Many analysts see this as a new development, but Reuters correctly pointed noted that, as far back as 1996, President Rafsanjani was discussing research into this area.

Recently, an Iranian intelligence officer defected, and according to reports, spoke of additional concealed nuclear sites. According to this official, there is a plant 20 kilometers northeast of Tehran, near the Lashgarak Dam that is a centrifuge uranium enrichment plant. It is underground and has nine tunnels beneath a lake that are disguised as bridge pilings. The site is 2200 square meters large, and is code-named Zirzamin 27. The official also discussed another possible site at a fish farm 60 kilometers north of the Bushehr nuclear reactor that was completed 6 - 8 months ago.

One of the most frustrating things for Iraqi Shiites – at least from the opinions of those that e-mail me – is the notion that all Shiites are loyal to the mullahs. It should be noted that in mid-June, 500 Shiite followers of Mohammed al-Hassai threw stones and set fire to the Iranian embassy in Basra, after the Iranians labeled him an enemy to Islam.

A recent story that should have been widely broadcast by the mainstream media but, not unexpectedly, wasn’t, reported that Qatar had arrested 100 Syrian workers and 5 Syrian intelligence officers who were trying to destabilize the country. According to the story, the group was led by Assef Shawkat, the head of Syrian military intelligence.

In late June, as Israel prepared to retaliate against Hamas for the kidnapping of an Israeli soldier, the Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigade, loyal to the Fatah of Mahmoud Abbas, passed out a leaflet that proclaimed the success of a three-year effort to produce chemical and biological weapons. They warned that at least twenty weapons had been developed and, that the weapons would be used against Israeli forces, if they invaded. Later, the group claimed that the weapons were used, but there was no confirmation on the Israeli side.

The Al-Zarqawi Documents

The death of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi has been a major morale booster for the troops and Iraqis, a tremendous intelligence asset, and possibly, a real turning point where historians may see this as the beginning of the end of the insurgency. However, there’s a lot of debate about a document, supposedly found in Zarqawi’s safehouse.

It is a battle plan, yet provides no new details. It states that “time is now beginning to be of service to the American forces and harmful to the resistance.” It further states that the insurgency is being severely damaged by (1) the training of Iraqi security forces, (2) massive arrests and seizures of weapons, (3) Coalition efforts against their sources of funding, (4) divisions inside the insurgency and (5) a lack of new recruits. The insurgency is losing support, and the Iraqi National Guard is reducing American casualties.

With regard to retaliatory efforts, the document calls for damaging American relations with the Shia, particularly Ayatollah Al-Sistani. It also urges that the insurgents must overcome the “gloomy situation” by (1) using a media campaign to win support, (2) infiltrating the National Guards, (3) using disrupting threats and framing Iran, (4) blaming Iran and Shiites for kidnappings and bombings, and (5) trying to provoke a war with Iran. The document makes it appear as if Iran is an enemy, not an asset to the terrorists, which we know is not true.

As Dr. Michael Ledeen noted, the document does not reveal any new information and covers Iran’s tracks. There are also reports that Iran gave the information on Zarqawi’s location to the Jordanians, who passed it on to the Coalition command. If true, then there is a strong possibility that the Iranians planted the document. And, as Ledeen notes, no one stated that the document was found at Zarqawi’s safehouse. The Iraqis are using the document to demonstrate that the insurgency is dying, but the media reports of it being found in the safe house are not accurate, since that claim was nver stated by anyone and, has not been authenticated.

Asia

This month, Ronald Montapertu, a DIA analyst at the Pacific Command, admitted to giving top-secret information to China. Chinese spies appear to be well infiltrated throughout the US government, military, intelligence community, and scientific and industrial communities. It is high time that a rigorous counter-intelligence overhaul and campaign against this infiltration be set in motion immediately.

The left wing has taken the lead on the Darfur issue and is demanding an end to the genocide and war there. The UN released a report on international arms sales that shows China has been a supplier of weapons and ammunition to the regime-backed militias and rebels in Sudan. China is profiting off of the war there, and this needs to be condemned internationally.