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Ryan Mauro's
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Monthly Analysis September 2007 By Ryan Mauro TDCAnalyst@aol.com Pre-Iraq War Intelligence
Another individual has come forth claiming that Saddam Hussein’s government did indeed have links to terrorist organizations and possessed weapons of mass destruction. In an op-ed we missed but was brought to our attention in mid-September, Don Bordenkircher, who was the national director of prison and jail operations in Iraq, claimed that the prisoners confirmed these allegations. He said Iraqi prisoners he spoke to confirmed that “all known terrorist groups were in Iraq before the United States invaded…They were harbored, trained and paid for...” Bordenkircher said he knows this from interviewing members of these terrorist organizations. He also said that prisoners told him that Iraq possessed WMDs, and the warheads went to Syria and were then hidden in the Bekaa Valley. The casings were buried in the Iraqi desert.1 War on Terror
There may have been an attempted terrorist attack inside the United States by Hezbollah this month. Houssein Zorkot, a medical student, as the other terrorists recently rounded up in Europe, was arrested in Dearborn, Michigan. Authorities believe he was planning an attack as they found him in an SUV, with an AK-47 and wearing black military-style clothing. According to his personal web site, he claimed to be a member of Hezbollah, although this remains unsubstantiated. As the political race heats up, it is important to note ideas that are being discussed. The Republican frontrunner, Rudy Giuliani, has said that as president, he’d expand NATO to include Israel, Australia, India, Japan and Singapore. This idea has not been thoroughly discussed in the media, but it should be. If this occurred, it would mean that any attack by Syria or Iran on Israel would be considered an act of war upon NATO members. This also puts into place a new Asian branch of NATO that would counter the increasing influence in the region by China. The two key questions: whether the European powers would want to do this, and whether India would be willing to choose sides. Middle East
The Israeli air strike on Syria was big news this month. Apparently, Israeli commandos identified a freighter that was carrying nuclear material disguised as a “cement” shipment. The material came from North Korea. The most common analysis of this action is that it was done for two reasons. One, to highlight Syria’s nuclear cooperation with North Korea and reduce that threat, and two, to demonstrate to the Syrian government that their new Russian air defense system could not stop the Israeli air force. Additional information about Syria’s nuclear program also came from a former Syrian military officer believed to have seen classified data. The officer claimed that Syria has had a secret nuclear program since 1986 and involved many North Korean personnel. He also confirmed that Abdul-Qadeer Khan, the Pakistani scientist who ran an international nuclear black market, visited Syria after an introduction by the Libyan government. The officer says that A.Q. Khan made contact in 1989 and since then, has gone to Syria on several occasions. The report said that the Syrian opposition group, the Reform Party of Syria, brought the officer into contact with the newspaper, bolstering RPS’ claims of having deep access inside Syria.2 The Reform Party of Syria has brought attention back to a January 15, 2007 report from The New York Sun regarding Syria’s WMD programs. The report identified Syria’s Scientific Studies and Research Center as being involved in the program by sending scientists to Iran‘s Amir Kabir University of Technology for education in chemical weapons and ballistic missile production. The report claimed the Syrian Air Force’s top-secret chemical weapons arm, Unit 417, tested short-range missiles with chemical weapons in recent times, including over summer of 2006 and in October of that same year. The Center also runs a covert biological weapons laboratory in northwest Syria called the Dubaya Center. As for Syria’s nuclear program, a CIA report confirms that A.Q. Khan has gone to Syria and that the Dubaya Center is a WMD site. The RPS report carried in the NY Sun named three scientists working on the nuclear program, and said that a dozen Iraqi nuclear scientists and their families went to Syria before Saddam’s regime fell with compact discs of data from the Iraqi nuke program. They were given new names, Syrian citizenship papers, and falsified birth, education, and health certificates. There was also a report in Jane’s Magazine this month that claimed that dozens of Iranian engineers and 15 Syrian officers died in a chemical weapons-related accident on July 23 in Syria. According to the report, the Iranian-Syrian team was trying to mount a chemical warhead containing sarin and VX onto a Scud missile, causing the explosion. 3 General Petraeus and Ambassador Crocker testified to Congress this month that the new counter-insurgency strategy and “surge” in Iraq, is working. Petraeus argued that sectarian violence has dropped significantly, and the number of violent incidents is at its lowest since June 2006. Civilian casualties have decreased, and Anbar Province, originally the hotbed of the insurgency, has had a dramatic turn-around. Attacks in Anbar have fallen from 1,350 in October 2006 down to 200 in August 2007. The number of suicide and car bombings has also decreased from 175 in March 2007 to 90 in August 2007. Approximately 20,000 members of the tribes that have turned against the insurgents have joined the local Iraqi police alone. There are almost 140 Iraqi national police, army, and special forces battalion now, 95 of which take the lead in operations on the battlefield. General Odierno, commander of the Multinational Forces, also reported positive developments. Odierno claimed that attacks in Baghdad have fallen from 32 to a dozen per day. He also stated that prior to the surge, a third of the Baghdad districts were controlled by insurgents, and now only five or six are. The tribal alliances against the insurgents continue to spread nationwide. In Diyala Province, where many Al-Qaeda forces fled, after leaving Anbar and Baghdad, has seen encouraging developments recently as well. 20 of the 25 tribes representing half of the population in Diyala have signed an agreement to work with American and Iraqi forces. Since this effort began, attacks have dropped dramatically. Three months ago, there were 125 attacks weekly. Now there are only 70. The Iraqi government and Coalition forces are also now working with Shiite tribes to form similar alliances against militia forces, particularly the Mehdi Army. U.S. combat deaths in September are also at their lowest level in 14 months (July 2006), which is remarkable because during Ramadan there is usually an increase in violence. Iyad Allawi, the former prime minister of Iraq, who has been trying to make a political comeback, has stated that his political defeats in Iraq were due to Iranian financial support for other candidates. In a extraordinary report by David Ignatius, it is revealed just how far Iran went to influence the Iraqi elections so that Shiite religious parties would dominate. In the summer and fall of 2004, the CIA concluded that Iran was spending about $11 million per week for media and political operations in Iraq to assist the United Iraqi Alliance’s campaigns for the January 2005 vote. Up to 5,000 Iranians crossed the border with counterfeit ration cards each week in order to register to vote. The CIA proposed a $20 million covert action program, with no ceiling (so more could be spent in order to achieve success), which would fund moderate Iraqi politicians and reach out to Sunni tribal leaders. President Bush signed off on the covert action program in the fall of 2004, but then abandoned it due to protests from Condi Rice and Nancy Pelosi. The CIA was then ordered to have the Iraqis which were funded return the money. This raises some interesting questions. Would such a covert action program mean the US was manipulating democracy? Is such manipulation justified in order to counter the Iranians? Moving over to Saudi Arabia, Youssef Ibrahim produced a notable report this month. In the report, he states that 20-30 Saudis enter Iraq each day to participate in the insurgency and, that over 1,000 Saudis are training at an Al-Qaeda camp in Syria, as well as at camps in Iran, Pakistan and Afghanistan. Ibrahim notes at least 700 Saudis are being held in Iraq and 100 in Jordan on terrorism charges and that Saudi terrorists continue to operate in Somalia, Malaysia, Bosnia and the Philippines. Saudi Arabia continues to bankroll terrorists worldwide, including Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas. Ibrahim then proceeds to explain how much political influence the Saudis have in the United States.4 It appears that the United States is going to attempt to have sanctions placed on Iran, independent of the United Nations. This is a shrewd move because it is highly unlikely the UN will place meaningful sanctions on Iran, therefore, separate efforts with different allies is going to be more effective. The Senate also passed a resolution pressuring the State Department to label the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps a “terrorist group.” This is another intelligent move because the IRGC forms the backbone of the regime today, and therefore sanctions that target the IRGC may destabilize the government. It is also a key strategy because, rather than getting caught up in only striking elements known to be connected to terrorism, the group, as a whole, is targeted and the entire apparatus weakened. The only negative effect of these actions is that not all members of the IRGC as “terrorists” per se, but are Iranians who made a career choice to lead to a better life through military service. Asia
A Christian ministry recently released a disturbing report claiming that North Korea is operating concentration camps with possibly over one million prisoners. Escapees reported stories of guards stomping on the necks of babies and scientists experimenting on the prisoners. The report said there were at least eight camps for political prisoners and another 30 camps for other types of prisoners. The report also described the revelations of one escapee who described the media as portraying the leadership as gods.5 [1] The Charleston Gazette, June 7, 2007. [2] New York Sun, September 19, 2007. [3] Jerusalem Post, September 18, 2007. [4] Youssef Ibrahim, New York Sun, September 14, 2007. [5] Open Doors International, September 27, 2007.
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